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This comes as month-end approaches and investors look ahead to the U.S. central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting. The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth is out this week, and big tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are due. Tesla shares fell 13% last week after an earnings miss, the biggest fall in almost a year. Ueda has insisted that the current policy will remain in place for now, damping down prospects of a shift this week. The central bank's revised inflation and growth forecasts might also give a clue as to when it will tweak or abandon YCC.

☆ Ball Doctoring: A History of Excuses, Denials and Knowing Winks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Benjamin Hoffman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

For nearly as long as baseball has existed, pitchers have been using various methods, legal and otherwise, to doctor the ball. Some want the ball to spin more, some want it to spin less. Some are looking for more movement, and others are looking for more control. In this case, Scherzer, who was ejected from Wednesday’s win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, insists he was using rosin — which is legal — and nothing more. Scherzer made little in the way of excuses or denials about the stickiness of his hands when asked about his decision to drop his appeal and serve a 10-game suspension.

☆ Bank chiefs move fluttering interest-rate needle
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank bosses are adding some dramatic tension to the U.S. monetary policy saga. It’s a possibility rather than a prediction, but when Wall Street’s highest and mightiest opine, it pays to listen. At the same time, the bank chiefs may be talking their books. He added that interest rates of “high 5% or 6%” would be “not shocking.”JPMorgan on April 15 reported $12.3 billion of quarterly earnings, a 56% increase from a year earlier, driven by rising interest rates. Dimon has previously warned that rates could hit 6%, and said in April 2022 that the bank was prepared for “drastically” tighter monetary policy.

☆ Analysis: Rates shift gives European currencies fresh legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But markets expect another 75 bps of European Central Bank rate hikes, with the deposit rate rising to a peak in the autumn. Expectations for higher official interest rates typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting investor cash into a country and boosting its currency. "An interest rate differential that is flat between the two regions would be equivalent to a euro/dollar move up to around 1.20." TURNAROUNDThe Federal Reserve's relentless rate hikes sent the dollar to 20-year highs last year as other big central banks moved more slowly. "But interestingly last month has seen the pound stronger, because of limited spillovers and declining U.S. and European rate expectations."

☆ Three investors on how to protect your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Wall Street has been hit with a barrage of complex signals about the economy’s health over the past month. From banking turmoil to weakening jobs data to slowing inflation, and now the start of earnings season, investors have remained largely resilient. So, how should investors protect their portfolios? Investors say there isn’t one asset that Wall Street should pile all their bets on, but there are fundamentals that should underlie their investment strategies. Doug Fincher, portfolio manager at Ionic Capital Management, says investors should brace their portfolios against inflation.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as likelihood of Fed rate hike rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gold pulled back from near record highs as the dollar bounced and Fed Governor Christopher Waller added weight to the prospect of another rate hike, saying the central bank's lack of progress on slowing inflation meant rates needed to move higher. While the economic data suggests the U.S. economy is slowing and next month's expected rate hike may be its last, how long rates stay at the highest since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 is unclear. "The Fed is going to stay higher than it's forecast. The 10-year German bund's yield rose to 2.433%, helping the benchmark post its biggest weekly rise since late September. U.S. crude settled up 36 cents at $82.52 a barrel, while Brent rose 22 cents to settle at $86.31.

☆ Stickiness of euro zone core inflation is concerning, Bank of Lithuania's chairman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStickiness of euro zone core inflation is concerning, Bank of Lithuania's chairman saysGediminas Šimkus, chairman of the Bank of Lithuania, discusses the outlook for the euro zone economy, including inflation, which he says is "stickier than many people expected" and has not yet peaked.

☆ Inflation will be 'stickier for longer' and hit floor of 4%, says BlackRock's Larry Fink
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will be 'stickier for longer' and hit floor of 4%, says BlackRock's Larry FinkLarry Fink, BlackRock chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss money leaving the banking system in to the capital markets, changing payments with digitizing currency, and interest rates remaining higher for longer.

☆ Larry Fink doesn't see a big recession this year, but expects inflation to stay higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock , believes the U.S. could skirt a major economic downturn this year, but inflation is going to be around for a while. "No I don't see a big recession," Fink said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Friday. "I'm not sure we're going to have a recession in 2023, we may have it in early 24." The head of the world's largest asset manager said the chance of a recession is dependent on the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation. "It all depends on what is the pathway of inflation of the short run and pathway to the Fed," Fink said.

☆ Wall Street closes lower after Fed minutes, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The minutes followed a cooler-than-expected inflation report which belied stickier underlying data and cemented the likelihood of another policy rate hike when the Fed convenes next month. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid"(Economic) data has been very mixed so investors are overacting to any positive or negative hint of Fed rate hike policy. Analysts now expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended in negative territory, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) suffering the largest percentage loss. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 187 new lows.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ IMF: Banking crisis boosts risks and dims outlook for world economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“Uncertainty is high, and the balance of risks has shifted firmly to the downside so long as the financial sector remains unsettled,” the organization said in its latest report. Changing forecastsInvestors are looking for additional pockets of vulnerability in the financial sector. The “fog around the world economic outlook has thickened,” it said. Looking ahead to 2028, global growth is estimated at 3%, the lowest medium-term forecast since 1990. The body’s forecast for global growth this year is now closer to that from the World Bank.

☆ Morning Bid: Glass half full on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline March consumer price inflation is expected to drop as low as 5.2% from 6% - showing the disinflation journey from more than 40-year highs of 9.2% last June to the Fed's 2% target more than half way there. The rider is that headline inflation rates are expected be below stickier annual 'core' rates, which are forecast to have ticked higher to 5.6% last month. The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook is also due on Tuesday ahead of the Fund's Spring meeting in Washington. The disinflation picture was encouraged around the world on Tuesday as Chinese consumer price inflation hit an 18-month low last month and the annual decline in factory prices sped up. Hopes that central bank rates are cresting worldwide lifted risk appetite across the spectrum with major cryptocurrency bitcoin broke back above $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday.

☆ Gold slides 1% after U.S. jobs data raises rate hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An Argor-Heraeus SA branded two hundred and fifty gram gold bar, center, sits in this arranged photograph at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Gold prices fell about 1% to slip below $2,000 on Monday, after U.S. employment data pointed to a tight labor market and raised expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May. Friday's data from the U.S. Labor Department showed non-farm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs in March, versus expectations of 239,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6% in the prior month. The report raised bets that the U.S. central bank would increase rates next month, with markets pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

☆ Gold slides 1% after US jobs data raises rate hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold slips below $2,000/ozMarch U.S. payrolls rise by 236,00066% chance seen of Fed rate hike in May- CME Fedwatch ToolApril 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell about 1% to slip below $2,000 on Monday, after U.S. employment data pointed to a tight labour market and raised expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May. Friday's data from the U.S. Labor Department showed non-farm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs in March, versus expectations of 239,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% from 3.6% in the prior month. The report raised bets that the U.S. central bank would increase rates next month, with markets pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

[1/2] A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expect a gain of 239,000 jobs in March, with hourly wages rising at a 4.3% annual rate and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%, a level seen less than 20% of the time since World War Two. Unemployment is still at a very low level," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Reuters last week. How "slack" in the labor market links to lower inflation may depend on where job growth slows, and over what timeline. "The services sector, in particular, has contributed substantially to recent inflation, reflecting ongoing imbalances in labor markets where supply remains impaired and demand remains robust," they wrote.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

☆ The Fed should keep raising rates as overblown credit fears make a recession unlikely, Fed President Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can keep raising rates as there's little risk of recession caused by recent bank stress, Fed president James Bullard said. The lending facilities extended to banks have been working, offsetting a bigger credit crunch. "It's not clear to me that there will be much of a pullback on lending by these types of banks," Bullard said. Bullard had previously forecast a Fed rate of 5.50%-5.75%, and has been a proponent of the bank's aggressive policy in order to tame high prices. And rate cuts may not be the most effective answer to current credit anxieties, Bank of America explained in a note published Thursday.

☆ US services sector growth slows; price pressures abating
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the pullback in growth in the services sector, Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee noted that "the majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions." The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMITRADE DEFICIT WIDENSWhile accommodation and food services businesses reported that "traffic is recovering and nearly flat," they added "we are optimistic about the coming months." With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. Services sector employment growth also moderated.

☆ U.S. service sector slows in March; inflation cooling - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was the first time since 2009 that all subcomponents of the manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 threshold. The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. The services sector is now at the heart of the fight against inflation as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

☆ Dollar slides on sluggish US data, Aussie steadies ahead of RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the sliding dollar, the British pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to multi-week highs in early Asia trade on Tuesday. The kiwi rose 0.2% to $0.6310, its highest since mid-February, while the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower at 102.02, having fallen more than 0.5% on Monday. "The closest thing we get to good news in (the) report is that the slowing in the factory sector is pushing prices lower and supply chains are continuing to heal, benefiting from the slack. The RBA will pause policy tightening according to a poll of analysts, although a strong minority still forecast a hike. Data out last week showed Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, due in part to a sharp retreat in prices for holiday travel and accommodation.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Oil is the Fed’s new headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

I'm sitting in for the rest of this week for Yeo Boon Ping, who is on leave. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Federal Reserve has a new headache: oil prices. As oil prices maintain higher levels, analysts warned the move could push oil back above $100, a level it reached last year for the first time in 2014 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Oil is the Fed’s new problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

I'm sitting in for the rest of this week for Yeo Boon Ping, who is on leave. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its interest rates steady for the first time since April last year. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

JPMorgan refreshed its list of top stock picks heading into April, including a bank stock that's had a rocky start to the year. To kick off the month of April, JPMorgan added two new names to its focus list: VICI Properties and Regions Financial. The other new name on the list, Regions Financial , has declined 15% in 2023. GM shares are up 6.2% in 2023. JPMorgan removed two names from its list: Intellia Therapeutics and Jones Lang LaSalle .

☆ Analysis: After extraordinary rally, bonds' fate now with bank stability and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alongside that dash for safe havens was a rapid repricing of rate-hike bets as banking turmoil raised financial stability risks, fuelling the rally in government debt. But coming so soon after markets had positioned for bigger U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation, bonds swung wildly. March's sharp drop in two-year yields followed a 59 bps jump in February. Two-year Treasury yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. The likes of JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, expect Treasury yields to end 2023 lower; others such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect a rise.

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