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☆ Hawkish Fed rhetoric fails to lift dollar; Aussie jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, that failed to give a boost to the U.S. currency, which slid 1.4% against the Canadian dollar overnight. Sterling was last steady at $1.2062, after rising 0.76% against the dollar in the previous session, while the euro edged 0.19% higher to $1.0624, following a more than 0.5% overnight gain. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 104.06, after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday. The Aussie was last steady at $0.6835, while the kiwi rose 0.11% to $0.6298, after gaining 0.7% in the previous session. "The Aussie dollar has obviously benefitted from the coal story," said NAB's Attrill, adding that most other commodity currencies were supported.

☆ U.S. manufacturing sector contracts, prices decline in December-ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. The survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November. The ISM survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November. According to a Reuters survey of economists, manufacturing employment likely increased by 9,000 jobs in December after rising 14,000 in November.

A survey from the Labor Department showed job openings fell 54,000 to 10.458 million on the last day of November, compared with expectations of 10 million job openings. The data indicated a still tight labor market that could give the Fed cover to keep rates higher for longer. Market participants see a 68% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike from the Fed in February, and see rates peaking at 4.99% by June. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.53-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.18-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The whack-a-mole economy: U.S. manufacturers struggle with unpredictable supplies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Timothy Aeppel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Supply chain problems dogged producers like Calder through the pandemic. At the peak of the crisis a year ago, manufacturers faced shortages of everything from steel and aluminum to computer chips and plastic resins. A recent survey of 179 companies by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers found 98% said they faced continued supply chain problems. Another gauge, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, edged higher in October and November - reversing some of the loosening of global supply bottlenecks seen through most of the past year. "But a lot of that has been delayed," he said, by supply chain delays.

☆ U.S. manufacturing output dragged down by motor vehicle weakness
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Manufacturing output fell 0.6% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday. Mining output fell 0.7% last month, matching the decline in October. That offset some of the weakness in manufacturing and mining, leading to a 0.2% drop in overall industrial production. Industrial output slipped 0.1% in October. It is 0.1 percentage point above its 1972-2021 average.

☆ U.S. producer prices increase in November; trend slowing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The report from the Labor Department on Friday also showed underlying producer prices increasing at their slowest pace since April 2021 on a year-on-year basis. "Easing producer prices foreshadow an improving inflation environment," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. However, the monthly increase in producer prices illustrates the need for continued tightening." A 3.3% increase in food prices was offset by a 3.3% drop in energy costs. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices gained 0.3% in November.

☆ U.S. trade deficit widens as goods exports hit seven-month low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of manufacturing and services exports stuck in contraction territory in November. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. The overall decline in consumer goods imports is in line with slowing demand for goods because of higher borrowing costs. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October.

☆ Dollar holds firm on hawkish Fed bets, Aussie tad higher after RBA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. Investors had been on watch for signs of a pause in tightening after inflation unexpectedly cooled last month. "And with the RBA expecting inflation to continue higher and household spending remaining strong as ever, then the RBA may well hike by another 25 bps in February and March before reassessing." In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner.

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. The Aussie dollar rose 0.21% to $0.6713, clawing back some of a 1.4% overnight tumble. In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner. "We expect the RBA to change its forward guidance in a subtle but significant way from 'expects to increase interest rates further' to 'likely to increase interest rates further' or 'willing to increase interest rates further,' (which) would indicate the RBA considers it is at or at least near the end of its tightening cycle," pushing the Aussie lower.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee below 82/USD for first time in a month, premiums at 12-yr low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The rupee was at 82.2550 to the dollar at 10:58 a.m. IST, down from 81.79 in the previous session. The local unit dropped to a low of 82.34, a level last seen on Nov. 4. Talk of a mining company's large dividend payment-related dollar outflow was adding to the USD/INR upside momentum, they added. Meanwhile, USD/INR forward premiums fell more to slip to their lowest level in more than a decade. The RBI will raise interest rates by a smaller 35 basis points to 6.25%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

☆ Weak U.S. goods exports weigh on trade deficit
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The second straight monthly widening in the trade gap was partly driven by a shift in pharmaceutical products trade, with exports of these goods falling sharply and imports surging. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October. A smaller trade deficit was one of the main factors behind the rebound in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.

"Good news on the economy is bad news for inflation, whether that's China opening up or lower gasoline prices." The 10-year's yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.596%. The 10-year German bund , the bloc's benchmark, rose 1.3 basis points to 1.890%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and is expected to raise rates by a mere 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.

☆ Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Mccrank | Seher Dareen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

☆ Services Come With a Smile, but the Economy Could Still Be Frowning
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Robotic arms at a Mercedes-Benz facility in Alabama. Weakness overseas and a strong dollar are hurting manufacturing more than services. The manufacturing sector has fallen into a funk. Services business are in anything but that. The details of the report were good, showing employment picking up and supply-chain problems easing.

☆ Russian oil just got hit with sanctions and a price cap after months of lead up. Here's what it means and what happens next.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If you take anything away from today's newsletter, let it be this: As of today, Russian oil faces a new European Union embargo, as well as a price cap. EU leaders have been debating a price cap for months, but on Friday agreed to a $60-a-barrel level. Some analysts predict Russian oil exports could drop by 1 million barrels per day, or about 20% of its seaborne volume. She told me over a video call from London that, ultimately, oil markets probably won't react dramatically in either direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the new sanctions on Russian oil?

☆ U.S. services industry regains steam; factory orders accelerate
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists shrugged off a survey from S&P Global confirming its services PMI was stuck in contraction territory in November. Thirteen services industries including construction, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade as well as professional, scientific and technical services reported growth last month. But information, wholesale trade and management of companies and support services reported a decline. Factory ordersIn November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ U.S. job growth likely slowed again in November; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the labor market remains tight, with 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in October, keeping the Fed on its monetary tightening path at least through the first half of 2023. Labor market strength is also one of the reasons economists believe an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow. The labor market is still very strong and still very tight," said Agron Nicaj, U.S. economist at MUFG in New York. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, consistent with a still-tight labor market. "I still believe the economy tips into a short and shallow recession mid-2023, based on eroding labor market growth, but the probability of no recession is now higher," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

☆ Morning Bid: Why payrolls might not matter to markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It's payrolls Friday, yet the most keenly awaited U.S. economic data point may not hold much sway over markets that are already behaving as if the U.S. tightening cycle is over. If it holds at current levels, this would mark one of the biggest weekly drops in the last two years . One line of argument goes that to justify the move seen in government bond markets, the Fed needs to be more or less done in December. So, where does this all leave the November non-farm payrolls report out at 1330 GMT? In the light of that data, markets may be anticipating a lower number later on.

☆ U.S. manufacturing sector contracts in November - ISM
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 last month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the U.S. economy. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index dropped to 47.2, remaining in contraction territory for a third straight month. The survey's measure of supplier deliveries rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in September, which was the first decline below the 50 threshold since February 2016. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment decreased to 48.4 from 50.0 in October.

In real terms, monthly average prices have been between the 76th and the 98th percentile for all months since the turn of the century. Chartbook: U.S. distillate suppliedMANUFACTURING SLOWSMost distillates are used in freight transportation, manufacturing, construction, farming, mining, and in oil and gas production. Distillate consumption is therefore highly sensitive to changes in the business cycle, especially the manufacturing and freight sectors. The slowdown in distillate consumption has been close to what would be expected based on the deceleration in manufacturing. Reduced distillate use would be consistent with an unusual increase in distillate fuel oil inventories reported over the last seven weeks in weekly surveys conducted by the EIA.

☆ Why Mark Zandi says the US economy will narrowly avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s why Moody’s Analytics chief economist is increasingly confident that the American economy will — narrowly — escape a recession. None of the financial market indicators suggest we have a recession dead ahead,” Zandi said. Zandi said he wouldn’t argue with those who forecast a recession, conceding it’s going to be a “close” call. S&P reiterated it expects the US economy to fall into recession next year, though it expects a “mild” recession in line with the 1969-1970 downturn. “I bet if we weren’t worried about a recession, the president wouldn’t have been so quick to go to Congress,” Zandi said.

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.13% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.09%. "It's going to be a busy second half of the week with all the data points we're expecting. Oil prices climbed on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls, which had fueled demand concerns. Gold prices rose with help from the dollar's retreat and hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes going forward.

☆ The Fed won't cut interest rates until late 2023 as the US economy continues to look resilient, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Barclays on Tuesday shifted when it sees the Fed starting to cut interest rates in 2023. A shallow recession should start later than Barclays anticipated, leading the investment bank to see rate cuts beginning in November 2023. The Fed will likely push rates to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%. The international investment bank had previously expected rate cuts to start in the third quarter of 2023, sized at 25 basis points. Barclays then projects a February 2023 rate increase of 50 basis points followed by a March hike of a quarter-percentage point to a range of 5% to 5.25%.

☆ Logistics Companies Are Diversifying Hiring, but Challenges Persist
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +8 min

Photo: Sarah Oden/Associated PressWomen and people of color are being hired into top roles in the logistics industry. United Parcel Service Inc. turned to Carol Tomé, a former finance chief at Home Depot Inc., in 2020 to become chief executive officer. Raj Subramaniam, who is from India, was chosen to succeed FedEx Corp. founder Fred Smith as chief executive earlier this year. Judy McReynolds has been chief executive of ArcBest Corp. , one of the largest trucking companies in the U.S., since 2010. Studies also show there is a big gap in pay across the logistics industry.

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