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Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, , Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Louis, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed's, Fed's, Governors, Interim, Louis Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Market participants now await policy comments from Powell at two separate discussions scheduled for 11 a.m. After recent conflicting remarks from other policymakers, investors are concerned that Powell could push back against the rate cut narrative. Other officials, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are also scheduled to speak during the day. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Powell, Jerome Powell's, Dow Jones, underscoring, Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Alibaba, Morgan Stanley, danuglipron, Paula Oyibo, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Chicago Fed, P Global, ISM, Dow e, Pfizer, Marvell Technology, Automation, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - After making hay when a summer bond rout propelled the U.S. dollar to 10-month highs, hedge funds are now pondering what lies ahead for the greenback. Five funds shared their views on the fate of the dollar. This does not represent recommendations or trading positions, which some hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. He expects the U.S. economy to slow sharply which, alongside falling inflation, will likely hurt the dollar against some emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, trading at 4.8908 per dollar , is up roughly 8% so far this year against the dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jonathan Fader, Fader, Doug Greenig, Florin Court's, Greenig, Tara Hariharan, Hariharan, NWI, Carlos Calabresi, Michael Sager, Sager, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, greenback, Swiss, Reuters, FLORIN, China Foreign Exchange Trade, Long, Garde, CIBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, China, Asia, Brazilian, London, Carolina, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDovish conversation in next FOMC meeting will fuel the year-end rally, says Fundstrat's LeeTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors head of research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the market's performance into year-end, the list of no-brainer stock buys, and the impact of rate cuts.
Persons: Fundstrat's Lee Tom Lee Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors
Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT
All eyes are now on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index- the Fed's preferred inflation gauge- for October, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show inflation eased in the previous month. The PCE index is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, moderating from a 0.4% increase in September. Data cloud company Snowflake (SNOW.N) added 8.2% after it forecast fourth-quarter product revenue above Street estimates on artificial intelligence driven demand. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Federal Reserve, Dow e, Ford Motor, Inc, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Chicago, Bengaluru
Munger, a billionaire investor and vice chairman of Buffett’s investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, died Tuesday morning at 99 years old. (Berkshire Hathaway shares, which didn’t have different classes then, ended 1977 at $138 a share.) Projections of Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman and chief executive officer, and Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire outperformed the S&P 500 during 31 of the 46 years Munger was at the company, according to Bespoke. The Christmas Price Index, now in its 40th year, is a tongue-in-cheek take on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index and is meant to highlight market changes over time while educating consumers about the economy.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Munger, ” Munger, Charlie, Michael Broggie, , , Charles Munger, Daniel Acker, Buffett’s, – Munger, inflation’s, Alicia Wallace, Read, Jordan Valinsky, didn’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway, Investment, Harvard Law School, Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Bloomberg, Getty, Daily, PNC Financial Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Nevada . Rite, Rite Aid, Amazon, Walmart, Target, Costco Locations: New York, Munger, Omaha, Berkshire, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio , Virginia, Washington, Michigan , New Jersey , Oregon, Connecticut , Maryland, Nevada
The Australian dollar held near a four-month peak while the New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495 in early Asia trade. Australian inflation data is due later in the day, followed by a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The dollar index was eyeing a nearly 4% loss for November, its worst monthly performance in a year. "We have become less constructive on the prospects for the U.S. dollar, as progress in reducing U.S. inflation suggests the risks are tilted toward earlier rather than later Fed easing," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. Sterling last bought $1.27105, hovering near the previous session's roughly three-month high of $1.2715.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Capital.com's Rodda, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Fed, U.S ., Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Wells
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,044.53 per ounce by 0453 GMT after hitting its highest since May 5. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $2,045.40 per ounce. "The key point data to look for is the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data and markets are expecting another slowdown in inflationary pressure in U.S.," said Wong. Investors' attention is now on the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures, due at 1330 GMT and on key PCE data — Fed's preferred inflation gauge — on Thursday. According to Reuters' technical analyst Wang Tao, spot gold may extend gains into a range of $2,059 to $2,069 per ounce.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Christopher Waller —, CME's, Wang Tao Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Reuters Locations: OANDA,
"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta
Adachi said Japan has yet to see a positive wage-inflation cycle, in which wages and inflation rise together, kick off. The BOJ can start debating an exit strategy only when the chance of such a cycle emerging heightens, he added. But Adachi said the BOJ did not necessarily need to wait until inflation-adjusted wage growth turns positive for it to normalise monetary policy. Hawkish member Naoki Tamura in August signalled a chance of ending negative rates early next year, saying Japan's inflation was already "clearly in sight" of the BOJ's target. With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, many market players expect the BOJ to end negative rates and YCC next year, with some betting on a move as early as January.
Persons: Issei Kato, Seiji Adachi, Adachi, we're, Naoki Tamura, YCC, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Chang, Ran Kim, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, MATSUYAMA, Matsuyama
The Christmas Price Index, now in its 40th year, is a tongue-in-cheek take on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index and is meant to highlight market changes over time while educating consumers about the economy. The holiday index also is running a touch cooler than its traditional counterpart, the Consumer Price Index, which was up 3.2% for the 12 months ended in October and 7.7% this time last year. Pricier doves and live performancesThe Christmas Price Index leans more heavily on discretionary purchases than the broad basket of goods and services that feed into the Consumer Price Index. The core Christmas Price Index rose 3.7% this year, a far more muted increase than last year’s 15.4% gain. “The Christmas Price Index is a very specialty gift basket.
Persons: inflation’s, ” Amanda Agati, “ We’re, , ” Agati, , hasn’t, Agati, , it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, PNC Financial Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Federal, CNN, Consumer, PNC Locations: Minneapolis, United States
The 2.2% year-on-year increase in the weighted median inflation rate, which is closely watched as an indicator on whether price rises are broadening, followed a 2.0% gain in September. It was the fastest rise since comparable data became available in 2001, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed. The data will be among the factors the BOJ will scrutinise at its next policy-setting meeting on Dec. 18-19. The weighted median is the inflation rate of items at the middle of the price changes, or around the 50th percentile point of the distribution. Unlike the consumer price index (CPI), which is swayed by fuel and energy costs, the weighted median inflation rate is useful to trace how widely prices are rising.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank
For investors cheering stocks' strong rally into the year end, Barclays warned that it could be eating into 2024's return. A number of macro news events sparked a relief rally in equities as 2023 begins to wrap up, with the S & P 500 registering four straight weeks of gains and climbing 8.5% in November. "Combined with year-end seasonality, the surge in institutional flows could push equities over their skis, essentially 'borrowing' 2024 returns and leaving less room for upside next year," he added. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The firm expects only single-digit returns next year as modest economic deceleration offsets the benefit of easing inflation. Barclays raised its 2024 S & P 500 price target to 4,800, from 4,500 previously.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, dovish, Treasury QRA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Big Tech, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Wall
The stock market is poised to jump 5% in December to test record highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. But it won't be a straight line higher, and the upcoming jobs and inflation reports could spark a temporary sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market is poised to "zig-zag" towards record highs in December, with the S&P 500 rising 5% to 4,800, according to a Monday note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee. October personal consumption expenditures price data, set to be released on Thursday, should be "soft" and help drive stocks initially higher, according to Lee. But any stock market declines on the November jobs and inflation reports will likely be short-lived and Lee recommends investors buy the dip.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, General Motors, Ford, Fed
Morning Bid: Watching what the ECB giveth
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June . Later on Thursday, Sweden's central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, haven't, Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel's, Christine Lagarde's, Jeremy Hunt's, Van Haaren, ECB's Isabel Schnabel, Robert Holzmann, Francois Villeroy de, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Vidya, European Central, PMI, ECB, Reuters, Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money, Bank of France, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, Britain, U.S, Sweden's
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. The Bank of Canada (BoC) - seeking to control soaring inflation - hiked rates 10 times between March of last year and July 2023, pushing them up to a 22-year high of 5.00%. "Higher interest rates are squeezing many Canadians, but these rates are relieving price pressures," Macklem said. "To return to low inflation and stable growth in the years ahead, we need these higher interest rates and slow growth in the short term," he added. Some 60% of mortgage holders have yet to renew their home loans at higher rates, the BoC says.
Persons: Blair Gable, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren OTTAWA, Macklem, David Ljunggren Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Saint, Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce, CBC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Saint John, Atlantic, New Brunswick, Reuters Ottawa
By Guy Faulconbridge and Vladimir SoldatkinMOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) on Wednesday that it was necessary to think about how to stop "the tragedy" of the war in Ukraine, some of his most placatory remarks to date about the conflict. "Yes, of course, military actions are always a tragedy," Putin told the virtual G20 meeting called by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "And of course, we should think about how to stop this tragedy," Putin said. Putin used the word "war" to describe the conflict instead of the current Kremlin term of "special military operation". "I understand that this war, and the death of people, cannot but shock," Putin said, before setting out the Russian case that Ukraine had persecuted people in eastern Ukraine.
Persons: Guy Faulconbridge, Vladimir Soldatkin MOSCOW, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Narendra Modi, Joe Biden, Sergei Lavrov, Vladimir Soldatkin, Gareth Jones, Alex Richardson Organizations: Kremlin, Indian, Ukraine, United Nations, Human, West, Belfer, Harvard's Kennedy School, U.S Locations: Ukraine, Russia, United States, Ukraine's, Crimea, Russian, Palestine, Gaza, Ukrainian, West, Moscow, Israel, Washington, New Delhi, Nusa Dua, Indonesia, Osaka, Japan
Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Naka, Rabobank's, Philip Marey, Jonathan Petersen, Michele Bullock, Changpeng Zhao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Thursday's, Federal Reserve, Fed, Capital Economics, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Singapore
[1/2] Russian President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk attend the G20 virtual summit via a video link in Moscow, Russia, November 22, 2023. "Yes, of course, military actions are always a tragedy," Putin told the virtual G20 meeting called by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "And of course, we should think about how to stop this tragedy," Putin said. Putin used the word "war" to describe the conflict instead of the current Kremlin term of "special military operation". "I understand that this war, and the death of people, cannot but shock," Putin said, before setting out the Russian case that Ukraine had persecuted people in eastern Ukraine.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Alexei Overchuk, Mikhail Klimentyev, Putin, Ukraine Putin, Narendra Modi, Joe Biden, Sergei Lavrov, Vladimir Soldatkin, Guy Faulconbridge, Gareth Jones, Alex Richardson Organizations: Sputnik, REUTERS Acquire, Ukraine, Kremlin, Indian, United Nations, Human, West, Belfer, Harvard's Kennedy School, U.S, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Kremlin, Gaza, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, United States, Ukraine's, Crimea, Russian, Palestine, Ukrainian, West, Israel, Washington, New Delhi, Nusa Dua, Indonesia, Osaka, Japan
Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024. European shares underperforming their U.S. counterparts was a common expectation amongst the survey's European respondents as the robust American economy looks more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' than Europe. European shares are much cheaper than those in the U.S., possibly reflecting the worse economic outlook. The STOXX Europe 600 trades at over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 35.6% discount to the S&P 500 (.SPX). "Still, as the broader economic slowdown takes hold of the continent's markets, we expect to see a rather challenging second half of 2024."
Persons: Chris Beauchamp, Thomas Monteiro, Germany's DAX, Fiona Cincotta, Cincotta, Investing.com's Monteiro, Monteiro, Samuel Indyk, Danilo Masoni, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Jason Neely Organizations: IG, European Central Bank, ECB, Investing.com, FTSE, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, riskier, U.S, Bengaluru
Treasury bonds have erased this year's losses amid a rebound from their historic collapse. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly flat. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly back where it was at the end of 2022. The hawkish stance sparked a historic crash in long-dated bonds, which suffered 46% losses between March 2020 and early October. And so far in the month of November alone, the Bloomberg US Treasury index is up 2.8%, its largest increase since March.
Persons: , Treasurys, there's Organizations: Bloomberg US, Federal, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, YE24
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The MSCI World Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38% by 10:37 a.m. EST (1537 GMT) and Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) rose 0.08%. The tech-heavy index (.IXIC) gained 0.44% to 14,187.16, as the Dow Jones (.DJI) rose 0.25% to 35,035.33 and the S&P 500 index (.SPX) gained 0.27% to 4,526.14. The dollar index fell to 103.46, its weakest level since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. "Dovish minutes could trigger some downside risk for the dollar," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Israel, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Global, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Hamas, Tech, Treasury, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, United States, Gaza, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
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