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☆ Eurozone Inflation Dips at Start of Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Melissa Eddy | More About Melissa Eddy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Why It Matters: The timing of interest rate cuts depends on dataInvestors are watching for signs that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates, which policymakers last week held at a record high of 4 percent. The numbers released on Thursday could raise expectations that rates may come down sooner rather than later. Core inflation, the rate of inflation that excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, continued its downward trend, cooling to 3.3 percent in January from 3.4 percent in December. That figure is crucial to the E.C.B., as it reflects underlying trends in prices across the eurozone. will remain cautious, he said, “and will not contemplate any rate cut before June.”

Persons: Christine Lagarde, “, Peter Vanden Houte, ” Organizations: European Central Bank, ING Locations: midyear, Germany, Europe’s

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with the Bank of England’s Andrew BaileyBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick after the central bank’s rate decision.

Persons: Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey, Steve Sedgwick Organizations: Bank of England’s, Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey Bank of England

☆ What the Fed’s Rate Moves Could Mean for Mortgages, Credit Cards and More
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Tara Siegel Bernard | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

While the Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, American households will want to know whether rate cuts are on the horizon, which could have meaningful implications for their monthly budgets. It has remained robust, which means policymakers might take their time before pivoting to rate cuts. But some banks have already started reducing the rates they pay to consumers, including on some certificates of deposit. Credit CardsCredit card rates are closely linked to the central bank’s actions, which means that consumers with revolving debt have seen those rates quickly rise over the past couple of years. (Increases usually occur within one or two billing cycles.)

Organizations: Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday did what everyone expected, holding interest rates steady for now. But it also avoided saying anything about what it plans to do with rates in the future, dashing hopes for now that rate cuts are in the offing soon. “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance,” the statement read. Over 12 months, the core rate has come down to 2.9%, he pointed out, adding, “We’re wanting to see more data. “However, they do need to be careful about holding rates up too far, too long.”Economists are predicting a slowdown this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, “ We’re, You’ve, Powell, ”, Greg Friedman, Brian Henderson, “ There’s, Charlie Wise, Wise Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ”, Dow Jones, Peachtree Group, BOK, “ Locations: American

☆ Opinion | Think the Baby Bust Was Bad Before? Just Look at It Now.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The baby bust that we all know about has gotten worse in a way that isn’t yet widely understood. And they have continued to fall since, according to a report to clients by James Pomeroy, a global economist for HSBC, the London-based bank. It’s titled, “The Baby Bust Intensifies: How Bad Could It Get?” (Sorry, no link.) Pomeroy didn’t wait for the official data collectors such as the United Nations to assemble data trickling in from national statistical agencies. In most of the countries for which Pomeroy managed to get data, the total number of births continued to fall steeply in 2023.

Persons: James Pomeroy, Pomeroy didn’t, ” Pomeroy, Pomeroy Organizations: HSBC, United Nations Locations: London, United States, Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland

☆ Regional banks are back in focus after NY Community Bancorp stock drops 38% in one day
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Regional bank stocks are back in the hotseat thanks to a truly horrific financial report from New York Community Bancorp. That caused shares of New York Community Bancorp to drop 38% in one day, and the stock hit a 25-year low. The bank’s stress brought down other regional bank stocks, with KBW Regional Banking Index closing down by 6% on Wednesday. That’s nothing compared to the devastating tailspin regional bank stocks encountered last spring. But New York Community Bancorp’s troubles may open up fresh wounds.

Persons: Thomas Cangemi, Cangemi, “ rightsize, “, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, New York Community, Bank, KBW, York Community, Signature Bank Locations: New York, New, York

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed isn’t vexing markets. Here’s what might
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But with practically all of Wall Street in agreement that no changes will be made, investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s afternoon press conference where he’ll answer questions about his outlook for monetary policy. Conflict in the Middle East and the Red Sea in particular “poses a risk to global trade,” said EY Senior Economist Lydia Boussour on Tuesday. That’s a huge blow to trade: As much as 15% of global trade and 25%-30% of global container shipments transit through the waterway. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” said Boussour. The company reported earnings per share of $2.93, beating Wall Street expectations of $2.79.

Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell isn’t, we’ve, ” Johns, Laurence Ball, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Gordon, ”, There’s, Jay Powell, CNN’s Arlette Saenz, Joe Biden, “, Brent, EY, Lydia Boussour, “ We’ve, Satya Nadella Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ” Johns Hopkins, “, Commerce Department, West Texas Intermediate, International Monetary, Microsoft, Revenue Locations: New York, East, Europe, China, Jordan, Gaza, Suez, Iran

☆ Fed meeting walkup: Chair Powell expected to announce rates will hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.

Persons: Jerome Powell’s, —, ” Sarah House, “, ”, Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San

☆ The Fed keeps interest rates on hold — and signals cuts aren’t coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.

Persons: Price, “, ”, Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ US job openings grew in December
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

However, despite the uptick, the labor market remains in the throes of a cooldown amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressive actions to curb inflation. The United States had an estimated 9.026 million job openings in December, according to seasonally adjusted data released as part of the BLS’ monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Economists had expected December job openings to drop for a fourth consecutive month and land at 8.714 million. Outside of the initial stages of the pandemic, that was the lowest hires rate since 2014. At one point in early 2022, job openings soared north of 12 million.

Persons: “, ” Jennifer Lee, that’s, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, United, Labor, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, BLS, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, United States

Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.

Persons: ”, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, “, Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ This latest measure of inflation shows progress toward the Fed’s goal, in a positive sign for consumers
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Excluding energy and food, components that tend to be more volatile, the closely watched core PCE price index rose 2.9% annually, a slower pace than the 3.2% rate seen in November. The core PCE gauge is at its lowest point since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the headline PCE index rose 0.2%, a slight acceleration from the 0.1% drop seen in November when gas prices were tumbling. The core PCE index also rose by 0.2% from the prior month. Adjusting for inflation, spending was up 0.5%.

Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Commerce Department, Consumer Locations: New York

☆ Jamie Dimon Reshuffles Management Team at JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Rob Copeland | More About Rob Copeland | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan Chase is reshuffling its leadership team, a move that many consider a succession plan even though its longtime chief executive, Jamie Dimon, has signaled he’s staying put. Mr. Dimon, 67, has been head of what is now the largest bank in the United States for nearly two decades, and repeatedly brushed off suggestions that he might step aside. It said that Daniel Pinto, the bank’s chief operating officer and Mr. Dimon’s deputy, would no longer handle the bank’s daily operations. Ms. Piepszak, who co-heads JPMorgan’s massive consumer banking business, has long been seen as a potential candidate for the top job. Mr. Rohrbaugh had been one of the co-heads of the bank’s markets and securities business.

Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, he’s, Dimon, Daniel Pinto, Dimon’s, Pinto, ” Mr, Pinto’s, Jennifer Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Piepszak, Rohrbaugh Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: United States

The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2% for the month, as did the core index that omits food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall index remained unchanged at 2.6% while the core fell to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The rise in the core index was the slowest since the spring of 2021. The core index is often cited by Fed officials as their barometer for inflation. “The meeting statement is likely to drop the hawkish bias from its forward guidance, but stop short of signaling rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Robert Frick, “, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Jeremy Schwartz, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: Federal, Economic, Fed, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Nomura Securities, Nomura, Aichi Amemiya

☆ When Will the European Central Bank Start Cutting Rates?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

For months, rates have been set at the highest in the European Central Bank’s history. Despite the protests of the eurozone’s policymakers, investors have been betting that the central bank will cut rates quite soon — possibly in April. Traders figure rates must come down because inflation has slowed notably — it’s been below 3 percent since October — and the region’s economy is weak. By the end of year, the central bank will have cut rates by more than 1 percentage point, or between five and six quarter-point cuts, trading in financial markets implied. Many of the central bank’s Governing Council are wary of declaring victory over inflation too soon, lest it settle above the bank’s target of 2 percent.

Persons: —, it’s Locations: Europe

☆ Edward E. Crutchfield, 82, Banker Whose Deals Reshaped the Industry, Dies
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Stacy Cowley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

His death was confirmed by his son, Elliott Crutchfield, who said his father had dementia. When Mr. Crutchfield graduated from business school in 1965, he took a job as a credit analyst at First Union bank in Charlotte, N.C. It was the lowest-paying job he was offered but he thought he could move up faster at a smaller bank. He sensed opportunity, he told his family and colleagues, at the bank and in the region. The decision empowered Mr. Crutchfield, by then his bank’s chairman and chief executive, to gobble up rival banks and failed thrifts, transforming First Union into a super-regional bank with thousands of branches throughout the Southeast.

Persons: Edward E, Crutchfield, Eddie ”, Elliott Crutchfield, hunches, ” Organizations: Charlotte, First Union, Union, New York Times Locations: North Carolina, Vero Beach, Fla, Charlotte, N.C, “

☆ Fed’s Barkin: March rate cut isn’t out of the picture. ‘You make the call when you get to the meeting’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The positive economic developments as well as Fed officials’ forecasts for at least three rate cuts this year had investors eying a March pivot. Meanwhile, Barkin — who will also be voting on Fed policy decisions at meetings this year — isn’t ruling March out entirely. For Barkin, “the breadth of inflation settling” and “the consistency of inflation settling” matter in his evaluation of whether the inflation rate is approaching the Fed’s target. Unlike many Fed officials, Barkin does not have a PhD in economics but has an MBA and a law degree. Investors will be paying close attention to any hints of the timing of rate cuts in the central bank’s latest statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Persons: Tom Barkin, Barkin, eying, Christopher Waller, “, Loretta Mester, Barkin —, isn’t, ” Barkin, ”, ” ‘ There’s, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Williams, “ There’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Richmond Federal, CNN, Fed, Cleveland Fed, FactSet, Richmond Fed, McKinsey, ” New York Fed, Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, That’s Locations: New York

Now, as a new week unfolds, the debate is shifting to how strong the economy performed at year-end and whether 2024 will also bring good tidings. Recent inflation data has shown prices are trending back toward the central bank’s target of 2% annual inflation. The Fed will have its first meeting of 2024 late this month after holding interest rates steady at its December meeting. A stronger economy or a hotter-than-expected reading on inflation might push the first cut into the second half of the year. Another important piece of the economic puzzle will be the leading economic index from The Conference Board, due out Monday.

Persons: ” Christopher Rupkey, “, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Conference Board Locations: COVID

The idea of using Russia's frozen assets is gaining new traction lately as continued allied funding for Ukraine becomes more uncertain and the U.S. Congress is in a stalemate over providing more support. Bipartisan legislation circulating in Washington called the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act would use assets confiscated from the Russian Central Bank and other sovereign assets for Ukraine. Belgium, which is holding the rotating presidency of the European Union bloc for the next six months, is now leading the talks on whether to seize Russia's assets. Belgium is also the country where most frozen Russian assets under sanctions are being held. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned that if Ukraine's immediate needs aren't met, “no amount of seized Russian assets is unfortunately going to compensate for what may happen."

Persons: — It's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “ Putin, ”, ” Biden, Penny Pritzker, “, Nicholas Mulder, Vladimir Putin, Shalanda Young, ” Young, ” Sergey Aleksashenko, Treasuries —, Konstantin Malofeyev, Alexander De Croo, De Croo, Maria Snegovaya, aren't, Ellen Knickmeyer, Lisa Mascaro, Seung Min Kim, Zeke Miller, Aamer, Sam Petrequin, Jamey Keaton Organizations: WASHINGTON, Russian Central Bank, U.S ., U.S, ., ”, Ukraine, Russia, Cornell University, Washington, Russia's Central Bank, White, Management, Russian Central Banker, Russian, Justice Department, State Department, European Union, Belgian, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Associated Press Locations: United States, Ukraine, Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian, Washington, “, America, Russia, Russian, U.S, China, Frankfurt, Belgium, Brussels

Notably, the report suggested that inflation was not as powerful a force as it had been a few months back. These numbers point to a strong spring, especially with the Fed getting more dovish. “Both changes would support the economy and extend growth, but also likely weaken the US dollar,” Khurana says. Businesses are entering 2024 in a positive mood, according to Dun & Bradstreet’s quarterly Global Business Optimism index released on Tuesday. The National Association of Homebuilders’ sentiment index improved in January to its highest level since September.

Persons: “, ”, David Russell, Chip, ” Brij, Khurana Organizations: Federal Reserve, “, Fed, Wellington Management, National Association of Locations: York, Dun

☆ Consumer Bureau Proposes Overdraft Fee Limits for Large Banks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Stacy Cowley | More About Stacy Cowley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday proposed a rule that would sharply limit overdraft charges at America’s largest banks and credit unions, a change that the agency estimated could save households up to $3.5 billion a year in fees. The proposal, which must go through a comment period and would not take effect until at least late 2025, aims to end the $35 overdraft fee that has become the standard at many banks. The bureau’s rule would give banks a few options for setting a lower fee. They could charge a break-even fee — based on the individual bank’s own costs — or a benchmark fee determined by the bureau. Alternatively, the banks could treat overdrafts as a line of credit and provide the disclosures required by the Truth in Lending Act, including interest rates.

Organizations: Consumer Financial Locations: America’s

☆ Goldman Sachs blows away earnings expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Goldman Sachs reported a strong fourth quarter earnings report, driven largely by impressive results in their asset and wealth management divisions. Revenue came in at $11.3 billion and earnings per share were $5.48, blowing away Wall Street expectations. Prior to this report, Goldman posted eight consecutive quarters of declines. JPMorgan Chase paid $2.9 billion to the FDIC, Bank of America paid $2.1 billion and Citigroup paid $1.7 billion. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, reported a 32% drop in quarterly profit in its earnings report on Tuesday.

Persons: New York CNN — Goldman Sachs, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, ”, David Solomon, Marcus, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Revenue, Apple, General Motors, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, JPMorgan, FDIC, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Locations: New York, York

☆ Goldman Sachs Sticks the Landing at End of Tumultuous Year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Rob Copeland | More About Rob Copeland | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reported its second consecutive quarter of steady profits, a return to form for the bank that has struggled with management missteps that tarnished its once untouchable reputation on Wall Street. The bank’s fourth-quarter profit of $2 billion was roughly equal to what it earned in the third quarter, but that was a sign of accomplishment. Helping the bottom line: Goldman cut 3,200 employees over the course of 2023, a 7 percent trim in its head count. Goldman’s stock rose about 2 percent , bringing the gain to roughly 10 percent gain over the past year. But shares are still lower than their 2021 peak and the bank’s full-year profit of $8.5 billion last year was the lowest since 2019.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman

☆ How Group Chats Rule the World
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Sophie Haigney | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +6 min

We often get glimpses of such group chats in court filings, the familiar blue-and-white bubbles of iMessage screenshotted and laid out as evidence. I know of a group chat in which, among other things, a group of successful men trade investment tips and even function sometimes as a de facto investment group. You have to wonder what was being said in this “200+ tech founders” group chat before the bank run. The dynamics of group chats — who is in them, who is not — might seem like the adult version of kids’ jockeying for a lunch table. One of my favorite group chats, now defunct, was among me and two friends I was suddenly becoming closer to.

Persons: I’m, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson, Carlson, he’d, ” Ingraham, “, ”, people’s, Sam Bankman, Fried, —, ’, someone’s Organizations: Systems, Fox News, Trump, MSNBC, Australian Financial, Valley Bank, Twitter, Spotify Locations: Hayes Valley

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