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If you take anything away from today's newsletter, let it be this: As of today, Russian oil faces a new European Union embargo, as well as a price cap. EU leaders have been debating a price cap for months, but on Friday agreed to a $60-a-barrel level. Some analysts predict Russian oil exports could drop by 1 million barrels per day, or about 20% of its seaborne volume. She told me over a video call from London that, ultimately, oil markets probably won't react dramatically in either direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the new sanctions on Russian oil?
In an interview with Insider, Ed Yardeni broke down his his 2023 outlook for the US economy and stock market. He put the odds of a soft landing next year at 60% and the odds of a hard landing at 40%. And by the end of 2023, Yardeni predicted the S&P 500 could climb to around 4,800. But Yardeni said the yield curve may not be as reliable of a recession indicator compared to previous years. Geopolitics presents the second largest risk to the economy, Yardeni continued, pointing to the Russia-Ukraine war, US-China tensions, Beijing's zero-COVID policies, and Iran.
Today features my conversation with top strategist and economist, Ed Yardeni, on his recession outlook and what he sees as the US economy's biggest risks for 2023. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research Ed YardeniEd Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research. Ed Yardeni: For the past year or so, the main issue for the US economy is inflation. EY: They can either continue to tighten until they cause a recession, but that's not my most likely scenario. I think either rates are going to go higher, causing a recession, which would bring interest rates down next year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni of Yardeni Research on why S&P sentiment remains bearishEd Yardeni of Yardeni Research joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss his economic outlook for 2023, high valuation multiples, consumer spending in the face of high inflation and fiscal spending.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Ed Yardeni
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Ed YardeniEd Yardeni of Yardeni Research joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss his economic outlook for 2023, high valuation multiples and consumer spending.
But as the Federal Reserve tightens policy to cool inflation, demand for homes is falling. If inflation does fall quickly and the Fed pivots to dovish policy, the declines won't be as big, Torres said. Supply and demand dynamics have created a 'perfect storm'Torres believes supply and demand dynamics have moved in a way that will create significant declines ahead. Affordability paints the picture for Torres' bearishness on demand, with the monthly housing costs historically high relative to incomes. This headwind is already causing home values to fall, with two consecutive months of price declines earlier this year."
S&P 500 futures fell slightly Sunday evening ahead of another batch of retail earnings to kick off a shortened week for the Thanksgiving holiday. Futures tied to the broad market index were lower by 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures hovered at the flat line. The S&P climbed 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite finished just 0.01% above the flat line. "Everyone's been debating whether we're going to have a soft landing or a hard landing – meanwhile, there's no landing whatsoever.
Watch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research's Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed and whether markets have reached a bottom.
Ed Yardeni makes bullish market year end call for S&P 4,300
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni makes bullish market year end call for S&P 4,300Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the Fed and whether the markets have reached a bottom.
We are in a rolling recession right now, says Ed Yardeni
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are in a rolling recession right now, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' ahead of October's key inflation report to discuss his expectations for inflation and potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
We looked how Club stocks did a year after the past five midterms. Affirm (AFRM): Many price target cuts and the stock down 12% in the premarket. Morgan Stanley cuts price target to $11.50 per share from $15; keeps underperform (sell) rating. BofA cuts price target to $61 per share from $73. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
The S & P 500 advanced 11.7% in that stretch. 2014 election The S & P 500 rose 4.5% between Nov. 4, 2014 and Nov. 4, 2015. These are the five best-performing Club stocks over those 12 months: Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Constellation Brands (STZ), Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms. 2010 election Between Nov. 2, 2010 and Nov. 2, 2011, the S & P 500 climbed 3.7%. 2006 election The S & P 500 rose 6.7% between Nov. 7, 2006 and Nov. 7, 2007.
Ed Yardeni sees a 75 bps hike from the Fed in December
  + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni sees a 75 bps hike from the Fed in DecemberEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his call that the market bottomed back in December.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed may hike 75 basis points again in December, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni of Yardeni Research says the U.S. Federal Reserve wants to frontload interest rate hikes, get to restrictive territory and keep it there for a while.
That bank thinks the Fed is going to skirt any talk of a pivot, and opt for continued rate hikes albeit at a slower pace. Goldman Sachs listed three reasons the Fed will carry on with rate hikes:US inflation will remain "sticky" so a pivot won't be justified. Keeping rate hikes going until March 2023 will set up the central bank for a future pivot. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, as eyes turn toward the Fed's rate hike decision later today. Here's what you want to know about the 1920 rule that's still moving markets more than a century later.
It's official: home prices in the US are in a downward trend on a national level. This is killing buyers' ability to afford higher prices. Housing affordability — when taking into account home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes — is now at one of its lowest levels in decades, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Scott Buchta, the head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital, also said in a memo on Wednesday that home price declines would continue, eventually falling on a year-over-year basis. Many see a so-called "Fed pivot" back to dovish policy as necessary for mortgage rates to fall.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Yardeni Research President Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his bullish year-end market rally call and the Fed.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will have a Santa Claus rally thanks to midterm tailwind, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his bullish year-end market rally call and the Fed.
"It is really not the right time to experiment with fiscal policy," AXA chief economist Gilles Moec said about the UK's moves, assessing that Monday's U-turn may have appeased "the bond vigilantes for now". The term, bond vigilantes, refers to debt investors imposing fiscal discipline on profligate governments by forcing their borrowing costs higher. Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, penned a blog post saying "They're Baaaack!" Even U.S. President Joe Biden was speaking the bond vigilante's language at the weekend, noting he wasn't the only one that thought the UK plan was a "mistake". "This is probably the biggest example in practice of the bond vigilantes activity," said Antonio Cavarero, head of investments at Generali Insurance Asset Management.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI wish the Fed would just hike more and get it over with, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni or Yardeni Research joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss how far he thinks the Fed will go with tomorrow’s rate decision, and whether the market will actually welcome more aggressive tightening.
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