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☆ China's reopening 'good news' for growth — but could be inflationary, economists warn at Davos
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's reopening has been one of the most discussed topics at the World Economic Forum in Davos. DAVOS, Switzerland — China's economic reopening might boost global growth, but the business leaders and policymakers at the World Economic Forum this week are also a little anxious on its potential inflationary impact. China's decision to welcome tourists again as well as to make it easier for those in the country to travel abroad has been one of the most discussed topics at the Davos gathering in the Swiss Alps. On the other hand, however, there are concerns about what this means for inflation and the cost of living. "So China's opening [is] good news overall, but potentially, the inflationary impact — there could be some," he said.

☆ Davos 2023: Global trade rethink: 'race of the big pockets'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies US climate bill concerns dominate Davos trade talkSome fear "rich-country game" of rising state subsidiesRevamped globalisation must benefit all, Davos toldDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The United States pitched its vision of "worker-centric" trade. "I am very concerned," World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Three decades of free global trade have, the International Monetary Fund estimates, lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The United States notably built into its trade pact with Mexico a mechanism for identifying and dealing with the denial of worker rights. U.S. Trade Representative Tai told a panel on Wednesday the United States wanted to "lead a conversation" on a new version of globalisation.

☆ No issue with crypto in India if laws are followed - minister
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - India's junior IT minister on Thursday said there was no issue with cryptocurrencies in India if all laws are followed, in remarks that contradicted the central bank's view advising investors to stay away from crypto. India has been trying to come up with regulation for cryptocurrencies, with a central bank deputy governor even calling for them to be banned, but the government has not been able to formulate legislation yet. In Febraury, a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), T. Rabi Sankar, said cryptocurrencies were akin to Ponzi schemes or worse and banning them was the most sensible option for India. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also said in February that cryptocurrencies lacked the underlying value of even a tulip. Reporting by Shivam Patel in New Delhi; editing by Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India is set to become the world’s most populous country. Can it create enough jobs?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New Delhi CNN —India will overtake China this year to become the world’s most populous country. That’s because India is simply not creating employment opportunities for the millions of young job seekers already entering the workforce every year. A huge crowd thronged India Gate on New Year's Eve on December 31, 2022 in New Delhi, India. The country needs to create at least 90 million new non-farm jobs by 2030 to absorb new workers, according to a 2020 report by McKinsey Global Institute. But, according to a former central banker, even this growth is “insufficient.”“A lot of this growth is jobless growth.

☆ India cenbank's new proposal on loan loss provisions to raise bank capital needs - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The Indian central bank's discussion paper suggesting banks make provisions on bad loans using an expected credit loss (ECL) method could raise capital requirements for lenders, analysts said. The potential impact of a shift to the ECL mechanism on bank capital could be significant, said the RBI, which is yet to give a timeline for implementing the new rules. The new mechanism will recognise problems ahead of time and make the banking system more resilient in the long run but could raise capital requirements significantly particularly for government owned banks, analysts at Macquarie Research said. "The problem here is that over the last 5-10 years, the probability of default would have been very high for the banking sector and that's why eventual ECL provisions could be higher,” Macquarie said. While the impact on individual banks is difficult to assess at this stage, it could be felt in 2025/26 and banks would have to start preparing in 2024/25 to raise capital, the research house added.

☆ Analysis: India's rising home prices, rentals a new inflation threat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Housing rentals and ancillary costs have a 10.07% weightage in India's consumer price inflation basket and are near three-year highs, posing a fresh worry for the central bank that had to contend with rising food prices for most of last year. Urban housing inflation rose to 4.47% year-on-year in December 2022, versus 3.61% in the same period a year ago and 3.21% in December 2020, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed. "Core inflation has continued to remain sticky and hence an increase in housing inflation poses a significant risk to the overall inflation outlook," said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda. While housing prices are not part of the consumer price inflation basket, their effect is captured through construction and raw material prices, and analysts do not expect a slowdown any time soon. Analysts said rising house prices would also feed into higher demand for services like electricity and repairs, ultimately working their way into the overall inflation basket.

Government bond yields are expected to tick up as investors shift focus to the upcoming budget. The rupee climbed 1.7% to 81.3250 per dollar last week, tracking a broad decline in the dollar index . There are a lot of positives for the rupee, including the Fed view, the broadly stable oil prices and the fall in Treasury yields, said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Till then, bond yields should not fall much, as most people are expecting a heavy borrowing calendar," said Ajay Manglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial. Meanwhile, as a bulk of the fresh supply for the next financial year would hit the longer end, market participants expect yields to rise, while shorter-tenor yields may see some fall.

☆ HDFC Bank, India's biggest private lender, says net profit jumps 18.5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Net profit for the quarter was 122.59 billion rupees ($1.51 billion), up from 103.42 billion rupees in the same quarter a year earlier. That was above analysts' forecast of 118.33 billion rupees, according to Refinitiv IBES data. Net interest income, the difference between interest earned and paid, rose 24.6% to 229.88 billion rupees from 184.44 billion rupees. HDFC's advances for its third fiscal quarter rose 19.5%, retail loans grew 21.4%, commercial and rural banking loans were up 30.2% and other wholesale loans rose 20.3%. Provisions and contingencies fell slightly to 28.06 billion rupees from 29.94 billion rupees last year.

☆ Indian shares set to open higher; inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Indian shares are set to open higher on Friday after data showed domestic and U.S. inflation eased last month, boosting expectations that central banks could slow the pace of interest rate hikes. In other Asian equities, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.8% at a seven-month high. STOCKS TO WATCH** Wipro Ltd (WIPR.NS): Co set to report quarterly results later in the day. ** Infosys (INFY.NS): Co raises annual revenue outlook after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profit in third quarter. ($1 = 81.1100 Indian rupees)Reporting by Rama Venkat and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian shares seen opening flat; Powell's speech, earnings eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Indian shares were set for a muted opening on Tuesday, tracking global moves as investors weighed expectations of less aggressive Fed rate hikes against inflation and corporate earnings performance. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore exchange were down 0.12% at 18,150.50, as of 7:42 a.m. IST on Tuesday. Domestic investors bought 17.24 billion rupees worth of shares, as per provisional NSE data. STOCKS TO WATCH** TCS (TCS.NS): Co's third quarter net profit missed estimates, flags challenges in Europe as clients tighten spending. ($1 = 82.1700 Indian rupees)Reporting by Rama Venkat and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Indian rupee could see big breakout after being locked in tight range - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee's narrow trading range against the dollar over the last three weeks may set the stage for a big directional move and a jump in volatility, analysts said. Volatility - Anushka"The longer the narrow range prevails ... the higher is the risk of a big eventual break," said Anindya Banerjee, head research - fx and interest rates at Kotak Securities. He pointed to an instance in the recent past when a narrow trading range was followed by a major slide for the rupee. In September-October last year, the rupee fell from 80.00 to 83.29 in just a month after being held in the 79.50-80.00 range. The rupee has repeatedly found support just under the 83 level over the last three weeks.

☆ India's services growth at 6-month high on robust demand - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Rupak De ChowdhuriBENGALURU, Jan 4 (Reuters) - India's services industry saw activity increase at the fastest pace in six months during the final month of 2022 amid robust demand, fuelling business optimism despite high costs, a private-sector survey showed. The S&P Global India services purchasing managers' index (PMI) (INPMIS=ECI) rose to 58.5 in December from 56.4 in the previous month, confounding expectation in a Reuters poll for a fall to 55.5. The index was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 17th straight month - the longest stretch of growth since June 2013. Hiring hit a five-month low, albeit in expansionary territory, even though the new business sub-index rose to a four-month high due to strong demand. Thanks to the growth in services as well as in manufacturing, the composite index rose to 59.4 in December, the highest since January 2012, from 56.7 in November.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee's threat to slip below 83/USD likely nipped by cenbank
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rupee closed at 82.8800 per U.S. dollar, down from 82.7375 in the previous session. The local currency on the interbank order matching system fell to 82.9950, prompting state-run banks to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, three traders told Reuters. The rupee which was anyway under pressure on account of importer hedging was further hurt by the dollar's surge against its major peers. This week's U.S. data will help investors gauge how growth is holding up and the likely path for U.S. interest rates. Meanwhile, it was a choppy session for rupee premiums, with the 1-year implied yield trading in a 1.95% to 2.02% range.

☆ India's factories ended 2022 on a strong note
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 2 (Reuters) - India's manufacturing industry ended 2022 on a solid footing as business conditions improved at the fastest rate in over two years while growth in new orders and output accelerated, a business survey showed on Monday. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (INPMI=ECI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 57.8 in December from November's 55.7, better than a Reuters poll median forecast for 54.3. December's reading was the highest since October 2020 and above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction for an 18th straight month. "Following a promising start to 2022, the Indian manufacturing industry maintained a strong performance as time progressed, wrapping the year with the best expansion in production seen since November 2021," noted Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market. Additional materials were purchased and extra workers hired as companies sought to supplement production and maintain healthy levels of inventories.

☆ Indian rupee's worst behind it; inflows crucial in 2023 - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to hold in a tight range in the early part of 2023 but the worst is possibly behind it, said traders and analysts. Plus, an easing of commodity prices could help our trade deficit," he added. And while global commodity prices and the U.S. dollar retreated in the last quarter of 2022, the rupee failed to capitalise on it. The rupee is set to end the year down nearly 11% against the greenback, its worst annual performance since 2013. How the flows play out will be crucial to the rupee's fortunes in 2023.

☆ India's forex reserves slip for second week
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell to $562.81 billion in the week through Dec. 23, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. For the week ended Dec. 16, the country's reserves were at $563.50 billion. The rupee has been calmer over the past couple of weeks, trading on the weaker side of 82.50 in a narrow range for the week ended Dec. 23. Traders have said state-run banks were likely offering dollars on behalf of the RBI to keep the rupee from breaching 83 per dollar. For the current week, rupee traded in an even tighter range in thin volumes and ended at 82.72 on Friday.

Indian companies raised around 5.38 trillion rupees ($64.95 billion) through private placements in 2022, largely aided by the banking system's massive cash surplus, data showed. Public issues were only to the tune of around 80 billion rupees. Indian companies raised 127.1 billion rupees and 175.3 billion rupees through public issues in 2020 and 2021 respectively, SEBI data showed. Fundraising through private placement stood at 8 trillion rupees and 6.31 trillion rupees respectively. "I think public issues are rising because the repricing of bank fixed deposits was very gradual, while public issues are realigning to market realities much faster," said Sudhir Agrawal, executive vice president and fixed income fund manager at UTI Mutual Fund.

☆ India's current account gap widens to 9-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit widened in the July-September quarter as high commodity prices and a weak rupee increased the country's trade gap, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Thursday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (CAD) (INCURA=ECI) was $36.40 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2022/23, its highest in more than a decade. The median forecast of 18 economists in a Dec. 5-14 Reuters poll was for a $35.5 billion CAD in the July-September quarter. The RBI said services exports reported growth of 30.2% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, driven by exports of software, business and travel services, while net services receipts increased sequentially and y-o-y. "Slowing global growth entails both merchandise as well as services exports will remain muted," she said.

☆ Indian banks may need to lift deposit rates as credit demand surges - RBI report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While banks have swiftly transmitted the hikes to their lending rates, deposit rates have been laggards for most. To fund this credit growth, banks are mobilising deposits at a faster pace amid tight banking system liquidity in recent weeks. The transmission repo rate increase during May-October to deposit rates is likely to provide a "fillip" to deposit growth rates, the report said. The RBI said it was imperative that banks ensure due diligence and robust credit appraisal to limit credit risk. "The uncertainties characterising fast-changing macroeconomic scenario amidst formidable global headwinds during 2022-23 can pose new challenges to the banking sector," the RBI said.

☆ India's forex reserves snap 5-week rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Dec 23 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) snapped a five-week rising streak and fell to $563.5 billion in the week through Dec. 16, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. For the week ended Dec. 9, the country's reserves were at $564.07 billion. In the week to Dec. 16, the Indian unit fell 0.7% and traded in a 82.3975 to 82.8900 range. The RBI had wound down much of its forward dollar holdings by the end of October, according to data released in the central bank's monthly bulletin. The RBI said its net forward dollar holdings stood at $241 million at the end of October, compared with $10.42 billion as of end-September and $65.79 billion as of March-end.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee may open slightly lower, risks falling below key support
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open marginally lower against the U.S. currency on Thursday, weighed by persistent dollar demand from importers and rise in oil prices. The rupee is expected to be around 82.85-82.88 at open, compared with 82.81 in the previous session. It looks like it will be another session where help will be needed to prevent the rupee from falling below 83, a trader at a Mumbai-based private bank said. Public sector banks have been regularly selling dollars lately, when rupee falls near to 82.85-82.90 levels. Asian currencies were mostly higher, while the dollar index was down to 103.98 on the back of the positive.

☆ Cryptocurrencies could cause the next financial crisis, Indian central bank head warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), called for private cryptocurrencies to be "prohibited." The next financial crisis will be caused by private cryptocurrencies, if these assets are allowed to grow, the head of India's central bank warned on Wednesday. Das' comments come as the central bank pushes to introduce its own digital version of the Indian rupee. The digital rupee is a type of central bank digital currency (CBDC). China's central bank is furthest ahead globally on the development of a CBDC.

LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - India has been one of the strongest sources of global energy consumption growth in 2022 as the country's economy rebounded from the disruption and lockdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Generation has rebounded so fast it is now less than 1.5% below the pre-pandemic trend for 2015-2019, based on data from India's Central Electricity Authority. Chartbook: India energy consumptionManufacturing production has been gradually declining since the second quarter, based on estimates published by the Reserve Bank of India. As the country's external environment becomes increasingly adverse, energy consumption is likely to grow much more slowly in 2023. Related columns:- India's electricity shortage erased by renewables growth(Reuters, Nov. 25)- Dollar shock threatens global economy (Reuters, Sept. 29)- India's coal and electricity supplies are more comfortable this autumn (Reuters, Sept. 28)- John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ India plans tax waivers for IDBI Bank buyer - sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Nikunj Rajesh Ohri | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The federal finance ministry is looking to relax a tax clause, which would require the buyer of IDBI Bank to pay additional tax if the share price rises post the final bid, one of the officials said. In case the share prices of IDBI Bank increase after financial bids are formally placed, the difference in share price may be considered as "other income" for the buyer as per tax laws, explained Om Rajpurohit, a partner at tax firm AMRG & Associates. The government and state-run Life Insurance Corp. (LIC) (LIFI.NS) together hold about 95% in IDBI Bank, and have sought initial bids from investors to buy a 60.72% in the bank. Last week, it extended the deadline for submitting initial bids until Jan. 7. Once the government receives initial bids expressing interest from buyers, the Reserve Bank of India would vet them to see if they meet the central bank's "fit and proper" criteria.

Dec 16 (Reuters) - India's rupee trade settlement mechanism, a means of using rupees instead of dollars and other big currencies for international transactions, is attracting interest from more countries. The four countries have shown interest in opening special rupee accounts, called vostro accounts, but partner banks in India have not yet provided those facilities, documents showed. Mauritius and Sri Lanka have also shown interest, and have seen their special vostro accounts approved by the RBI, documents showed. Details of potential rupee-dirham trade mechanism are being firmed up by the central banks of India and UAE, a second government official said, requesting anonymity. Talks with Saudi Arabia on a rupee-riyal trade mechanism also continue, the government official added.

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