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☆ As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The European Central Bank is expected to continue raising rates aggressively in the short-term as the euro zone economy proves more resilient than anticipated. Haussmann Visuals | Moment | Getty ImagesAfter China's reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises in recent weeks, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy. Berenberg also upgraded its euro zone forecast in light of recent news flow, particularly falling gas prices, a consumer confidence recovery and a modest improvement in business expectations. watch now"As Germany is more exposed to gas risks than the euro zone as a whole, it suggests that the euro zone likely did not fare (much) worse than Germany late last year and may thus have avoided a significant contraction in Q4 GDP," Schmieding said. Berenberg therefore raised its calls for the annual average change to real GDP in 2023 from a 0.2% shrinkage to 0.3% growth.

☆ Corporate profit reports in the week ahead could show whether there's an 'earnings recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.

Bonds also rose, mirroring hopes of a softer inflation report, and the U.S. dollar was near seven-month lows against a basket of currencies. Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) equity benchmark index rose 0.6% to its highest since April 2022. Roberto Lottici, portfolio manager at Banca Ifigest, said he was concerned markets could potentially even react negatively to any big downside surprise in the U.S. CPI data. Foreign exchange markets elsewhere were quieter ahead of the U.S. CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies. The dollar index eased 0.1% to 103.06, not far from a seven-month low of 102.93 hit this week.

☆ Stocks becalmed before potential CPI storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European futures rose 0.4%. Bonds held overnight gains and the U.S. dollar was pinned near a seven-month low at $1.0769 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. U.S. Treasuries added a little to overnight gains, with benchmark 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 3.5189% and 30-year yields down 4.4 bps to 3.6375%. Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Asia stocks hit 7-month high on China and CPI bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following gains for Wall Street indexes overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.5% and touched an almost seven-month high. Bonds were bought around the world overnight and the U.S. dollar wavered, to touch a seven-month low at $1.0776 per euro . "(It) is the CPI number that could help settle the debate for the February meeting," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. "We expect a below consensus CPI print, which if it materialises, could push this rally even further." Foreign exchange markets were elsewhere holding their breath ahead of CPI data while China's reopening kept a bid under Asia's currencies.

☆ Gold firms as dollar eases ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. CPI due at 1330 GMT(.DXY) down 0.1%Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices ticked higher on Thursday, aided by a softer dollar, while market participants awaited key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path. "Gold prices are very well supported as the dollar has weakened. If the inflation report is supportive for gold, then prices could move up to $1,900 level, but there might be some profit booking after that, Kedia added. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. On the physical front, Indian gold refiners have nearly stopped imports of gold dore, a semi-pure alloy, as grey market operators offer hefty discounts, industry officials said.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Five states will have politically-split Senate delegations in the new Congress, reflecting the nation's continued partisan polarization
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The new Congress, which begins this week, will have five politically-split Senate delegations. But in the new Congress, which begins this week, only five states will have split Senate delegations: Maine, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. AP Photo/Matthew BrownMontanaDemocratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Sen. Steve DainesTester was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and secured reelection in both 2012 and 2018. Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesWest VirginiaDemocratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Republican Sen. Shelley Moore CapitoManchin is perhaps the nation's most recognizable moderate Democrat, having single-handedly scuttled Biden's Build Back Better agenda in December 2021. WisconsinRepublican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Sen. Tammy BaldwinThe Badger State is often home to some of the closest races in the entire country.

☆ Joe Biden's biggest successes and failures in his second year in office
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Nicole Gaudiano | Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

His second year in office was marked by historic legislative achievements despite Democrats' razor-thin majority in Congress. Here are some of the highs and lows from Biden's second year:Success: UkrainePresident Joe Biden talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outside the White House. Conservative New York Times columnist Bret Stephens in September called the "staggering gains" by Ukrainian forces "a victory for Joe Biden, too." Universal pre-K was included in a sweeping spending plan passed by House Democrats until their Senate colleagues cut that out too. Failure: InflationPresident Joe Biden arrives for an event focused on inflation and the supply chain at the Port of Los Angeles in June.

WASHINGTON — It was a busy year for Congress, which passed a slew of consequential bills, most of which enjoyed support from both parties. As two years of full Democratic control come to an end, here are five of the most significant bills passed in 2022. The Electoral Count Reform Act will revise the 1887 Electoral Count Act to make clear the vice president cannot discount electoral votes. It’ll raise the threshold for objections from one member of each the House and Senate to one-fifth of both chambers. The legislation came about after the new 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court voted last summer to overturn Roe v. Wade, prompting critics to fear that it could do the same to same-sex marriage rights.

☆ Jan. 6 committee releases nearly 50 more witness transcripts — including Ivanka Trump, Bill Barr, and Mike Pompeo — to little fanfare
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The January 6 committee released a new trove of nearly 50 witness transcripts on Friday. Testimony from Ivanka Trump, Mike Pompeo, and Bill Bar was included in the release. Testimony from several high-profile witnesses were included in the Friday release, including Ivanka Trump, former Attorney General Bill Bar, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The committee released testimony transcripts from 46 witnesses in total on Friday, having already published several transcripts earlier in the week. Testimony from Trump-aligned attorney Sidney Powell, former White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, and former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany was also released Friday.

☆ Sen. Susan Collins pressed Ivanka Trump to convince Donald Trump to stop Jan. 6 riot, new transcripts reveal
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Hannah Getahun | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The January 6 committee released a transcript of Ivanka Trump's interview.`The transcript revealed that Sen. Susan Collins called Ivanka Trump during the Capitol riot. "It was a brief conversation," Ivanka Trump says, according to the transcript. The call from Collins is one of a few calls that Ivanka Trump received during the riot. Ivanka Trump also confirmed that Sen. Lindsey Graham called her from the Capitol building as events unfolded. The report also detailed Ivanka Trump imploring her father to quell the violence, noting that she appeared"visibly upset" after her father refused to listen to her.

☆ Here are the 14 Republican senators who may have doomed their bills in the new GOP House by voting for a major spending bill
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Kevin McCarthy even vowed to block House consideration of bills sponsored by GOP senators who voted for it. But a slew of GOP senators voted for it anyway, including 4 who are retiring and 14 who will remain. "Kevin's in a tough spot," Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, a former House Republican and an opponent of the omnibus himself, told CNN's Manu Raju. "Statements like that... is the very reason that some Senate Republicans feel they probably should spare them from the burden of having to govern." Additionally, four Republican senators who voted for the bill are retiring, making the threat meaningless to them.

☆ Congress is poised to ensure that no vice president could unilaterally decide an election 2 years after Trump pressured Pence to reverse his loss
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

After months of debate, lawmakers are poised to pass major changes to the Electoral Count Act. They wanted the vice president to either delay the January 6 joint session of Congress and/or unilaterally find that the certified results of states in disputes were not legitimate. I think Vice President Pence … did exactly the right thing and previous vice presidents have done the same. Trump himself has suggested that by clarifying the Electoral Count Act, senators are implicitly suggesting that Pence could have had this power. In order for pro-Trump lawmakers to throw the election to the vice president, they still needed to file objections to the results.

☆ Factbox: What's in the U.S. Congress's Electoral Count Reform Act?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here are details on the Electoral Count Reform Act, which lawmakers included in a year-end government funding bill:AIMS TO PREVENT ANOTHER JAN. 6The bipartisan effort would rewrite the 1887 Electoral Count Act, which lays out the process by which Congress tallies the state-by-state results from a presidential election and formally certifies the winner. Trump and his advisers had cited provisions of the 1887 law as they pressed Republican allies to overturn his loss. BIPARTISAN SUPPORTWhile other election-law reforms have foundered in Congress this year due to Republican opposition, the Electoral Count Reform Act has solid bipartisan support, at least in the Senate. Trump had urged his vice president, Mike Pence, to prevent lawmakers from certifying Biden's victory. Current law requires Congress to consider a challenge if only one lawmaker from each chamber raises an objection.

It could be the last major bill that passes this year before Republicans seize control of the House on Jan. 3. He has pressured GOP lawmakers to vote against it, forcing Democrats to supply most of the votes to pass it in the House. Capitol Hill leaders decided to attach the election bill and Ukraine aid to ease the process of passage, on the belief that the combined package has the votes to pass. For Republicans, one incentive to pass the bill now is that it funds the military at a higher level than the nondefense budget. “This is a strong outcome for Republicans,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said, arguing that the GOP persuaded Democrats to back down on their long-standing demand for “parity” between the two pots of money.

☆ Schumer reflects on how Senate Democrats went from infighting to big policy wins and a larger majority
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Sahil-Kapur-Headshot.Jpg | Sahil Kapur | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +7 min

The 50-50 majority, which has been unkind to Senate leaders in the past, seemed to be slipping from his grasp. “Everyone said Democrats are gonna lose a whole ton of seats,” Schumer said during a wide-ranging interview in his Capitol Hill office. Democrats may have held the Senate, but they narrowly lost the House majority to Republicans, which could spell the end of the party’s biggest legislative goals. And despite Schumer’s confidence that he’ll hold the Senate majority again in 2024, the map presents enormous challenges. Schumer said he isn’t giving up on working with moderate House Republicans, including some who won swing districts in his home state of New York.

☆ Advocates Urge Congress to Pass Permanent Residency Status for Afghans
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Oma Seddiq | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesConvincing Republican senatorsThe House version of the Afghan Adjustment Act has 143 co-sponsors, including 10 Republicans. Demonstrators gather to support Afghan evacuees outside the Capitol on Nov. 16, 2022. At the moment, one prospect to advance the Afghan Adjustment Act is by attaching it to that larger spending bill, advocates say. But negotiations on the omnibus are ongoing, and whether the Afghan Adjustment Act will be included is up in the air. Yet without a deal by then, passage of the Afghan Adjustment Act appears doomed, advocates say, keeping Afghan evacuees in perpetual legal limbo.

President Joe Biden signed legislation Tuesday to codify federal protections for same-sex and interracial marriages in a ceremony at the White House. Biden also quoted directly from a 2012 interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" in which he came out in public support of same-sex marriage ahead of then-President Barack Obama. The legislation Biden signed was drafted by a bipartisan group led by Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., the first openly gay person elected to the Senate. President Joe Biden signs the Respect for Marriage Act on the South Lawn of the White House on Tuesday. The amendment included language saying that religious organizations would not be required to perform same-sex marriages and that the federal government would not be required to protect polygamous marriages.

WASHINGTON — The House passed legislation Thursday that enshrines federal protections for marriages of same-sex and interracial couples. Thirty-nine House Republicans supported the legislation Thursday and one voted present. The revisions to the bill meant the House had to vote again after passing an earlier version in July. It reflects the rapidly growing U.S. public support for legal same-sex marriage, which hit a new high of 71% in June, according to Gallup tracking polls — up from 27% in 1996. In the Senate, 12 Republicans voted with unanimous Democrats to pass the bill, which sent it back to the House.

☆ Mitch McConnell could've tried to block a bill to protect same-sex marriage. He stayed silent about it instead.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Mitch McConnell never publicly offered his position on a bill to protect same-sex marriage. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina on amendments to the bill, told Insider. "You know, the leader has to look at his conference," Tillis told Insider, referencing his own time as the Speaker of the North Carolina House. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a conservative opponent of the bill, told Insider that "of course" he wished McConnell had taken a vocal position on the bill. As Sinema stood up to embrace the Iowa Republican, McConnell rose from his seat and voted no.

WASHINGTON — The lobster featured on the menu of Thursday’s state dinner comes with caviar, squash ravioli — and a heaping side of controversy. Maine officials would typically be thrilled to have their state’s most famous export featured at such a high-profile White House event. Maine lobstermen have long prided themselves on sustainability and argue the concern about right whales is misplaced. “I am glad President Biden and his State Dinner guests had the opportunity to enjoy Maine lobster,” Democratic Maine Gov. “The administration should make their policy consistent with their culinary preferences.”The Office of the First Lady, which oversees the state dinner preparations, did not respond to a request for comment.

☆ Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year as the central bank weighs critical policy moves ahead, according to an announcement Thursday. "Austan is an exceptional choice to be the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee comes to the Chicago Fed at a sensitive time for the central bank. A Chicago Fed release announcing the appointment said the new district president is "a leading empirical economist" whose research spans a wide variety of topics. Goolsbee called the Chicago Fed "one of the crown jewels" of the central bank system.

☆ Factbox: Who are 12 U.S. Senate Republicans who voted to protect same-sex marriage?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Moira Warburton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here is what they said about supporting the Respect for Marriage Act, which some social conservatives object to:SUSAN COLLINS, MAINECollins is one of the most moderate Senate Republicans. LISA MURKOWSKI, ALASKAMurkowski, a moderate Senate Republican, was the third Republican senator in 2013 to come out in support of same-sex marriage. DAN SULLIVAN, ALASKASullivan said he disagreed with the 2015 Supreme Court decision that established the national right to same-sex marriage. CYNTHIA LUMMIS, WYOMINGAlthough she also believes in "traditional" marriage, Lummis said she believed the separation of church and state was more important than individual religious opinions. She told Politico that although she believes "in traditional marriage," her stance evolved with growing popular support for same-sex marriage.

That’s all I have to say about that,” said Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, a member of Senate Republican leadership. I don’t think he should be the nominee of our party in 2024,” he said. And I don’t think it’ll matter in terms of his political future, but I do believe we need to watch who we meet with. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the outgoing NRSC chair, said, “There’s no room in the Republican Party for white supremacist antisemitism — so it’s wrong.”Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said: “Antisemitism is wrong, and white supremacy is wrong, and that’s all there is to it. Writing on Truth Social, Trump called Ye a “seriously troubled man” and said he had no idea who Fuentes was.

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