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S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. Fox Corp. and Nikola are among companies set to report quarterly earnings before the bell, followed by Airbnb and Rivian after the market closes. Earnings season is beginning to wind down with more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 done reporting.
Stock markets nervous about Fed pivot and banking sector
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"The Fed decision was widely expected, so it didn't provide much of a shock to financial markets," Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets, in Auckland. "However, I think the whole economic playout is not positive, especially the recent banking rout from the regional banks, and those big banks taking over the smaller banks. It's not a good sign, and risks are spreading out into the wider banking system, which worries investors." E-mini futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, reflecting the dramatic slide in regional banking shares after the close of U.S. markets. The Fed is trying to indicate a direction, and the market is looking further down the path than the Fed's willing to communicate."
TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.
That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.
SINGAPORE, April 27 (Reuters) - China's yuan currency is slowly but surely being adopted for more international payments, which analysts say could lay foundations for a trade system running parallel to the dominant U.S. dollar. True global yuan adoption is unlikely, given expectations that Beijing will want to keep a tight grip on the currency. "Their cooperation could draw other countries to renminbi payments over time and cumulatively, this group could lift the renminbi at the expense of the dollar," he said. "This kind of renminbi internationalisation may achieve Beijing's goals, including reducing China’s exposure to exchange rate fluctuations and mitigating China’s vulnerabilities to U.S. financial sanctions." "Therefore, if exporters want to use yuan to settle trades, they must persuade foreign importers to pay in yuan, which often takes a long time."
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 14, 2023. "(Recession) is still out there as a pretty significant risk, but handicapping the timing of it is difficult." Upbeat earnings from Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Boeing Co (BA.N) took the sting out of some disappointing economic data, which suggested weakening corporate expenditures on core capital goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.23%. The dollar index fell 0.35%, with the euro up 0.57% to $1.1034.
Techs lift the S&P 500, dollar softens
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, April 26 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 inched higher on Wednesday and the dollar weakened as investors weighed solid company earnings against weaker-than-expected economic data and ongoing wrangling in Washington on raising the debt ceiling. "Megacaps are doing well based on strong earnings," said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bancorp in Helena, Montana. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 42.01 points, or 0.13%, to 33,488.82, and the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 8.73 points, or 0.21%, to 4,080.36. The U.S. dollar softened against a basket of major world currencies as the previous session's flight to safety faded and the euro gained strengthThe dollar index fell 0.46%, with the euro up 0.68% to $1.1047. Crude prices extended their losses as weak economic data further fueled fears of an economic downturn.
Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.
Companies in the consumer discretionary spending sector reporting next week include Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) and AutoNation Inc (AN.N). Reuters GraphicsGrowing recession fears over the last year have already prompted many consumer discretionary companies to cut costs to boost margins, which may lead to positive earnings surprises this quarter, Melson said. Part of that expected growth comes from a job market that has remained robust, helping buoy consumer spending, said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment inched up in April, but households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, has winnowed his holdings of consumer discretionary stocks in anticipation of a recession later this year.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) rose 15.42 points, or 0.1%, to 20,579.91, its highest closing level since March 3. "Good bank earnings out of the U.S. spilled over into Canada," said Allan Small, senior investment advisor of the Allan Small Financial Group with iA Private Wealth. Canadian banks had been pressured in recent weeks by the banking stress in the United States and Europe. The Toronto market's heavily-weighted financials sector added 0.2%, while energy was up 0.3% as oil added to recent gains. Reporting by Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi MajumdarOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
US March CPI comes in on the cool side
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Year to date, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest 12-month gain since May 2021. "The data was a little bit better than what was expected, so that tells me that the bond market is saying that the probability of this next rate hike has decreased just a little bit." "The other number that's important is the PPI number that comes out this week. That will probably change a little bit today as people digest this data, maybe even within the next half an hour or so." It weakens the argument for a pause.”“Futures are going up based on the topline number, that’s what markets are focusing on.”“Inflation is cooling down.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets still aren't pricing in a recession, says NewEdge Wealth's DawsonKevin Gordon, Charles Schwab senior investment strategist, and Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth chief investment officer, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss what's priced into the markets, Wednesday's price action and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon and NewEdge Wealth's Cameron DawsonKevin Gordon, Charles Schwab senior investment strategist, and Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth chief investment officer, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss what's priced into the markets, Wednesday's price action and more.
If successful, the deal would lift Newmont's gold output to nearly double its nearest rival Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO). Newcrest said on Tuesday it had given U.S.-based Newmont access to its books following the sweetened all-share bid that has received some support from shareholders. The latest bid is 16% higher than Newmont's initial proposal, and represents around a 46% premium to Newcrest's share price on Feb. 3 before Newmont's first bid was announced. Reuters had reported that Newmont was open to raising its offer price for Newcrest. Barrick and miner Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSWJ.J) have told Reuters they are not interested in bidding for Newcrest.
Under the revised offer, Newcrest shareholders would receive 0.400 Newmont share for each share held, with an implied value of A$32.87 a share, up from a previous exchange ratio of 0.380 that Newcrest's board unanimously rejected in February. Newcrest shares rose by as much as 7% to A$30.28 but still traded below the implied offer price. The latest bid is 16% higher than Newmont's initial proposal, and represents a 46% premium to Newcrest's share price on Feb. 3 before Newmont's bid was announced, Newcrest said. Reuters had reported that Newmont was open to raising its offer price for Newcrest. The revised deal is just shy of Glencore's $22.5 billion takeover offer for Canada's Teck Resources Ltd's (TECKb.TO) that was announced earlier this month.
Newcrest said on Tuesday it had given U.S.-based Newmont access to its books following the sweetened all-share bid. "Newmont has indicated that the revised proposal represents its best and final price in the absence of a competing proposal," Newcrest said in a statement. The latest bid is 16% higher than Newmont's initial proposal, and represents a 46% premium to Newcrest's share price on Feb. 3 before Newmont's bid was announced. Reuters had reported that Newmont was open to raising its offer price for Newcrest. Rival miners Barrick and Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SSWJ.J) have told Reuters they are not interested in bidding for Newcrest.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported. That also should ease pressure in the job market and help overall growth in the months and quarters ahead." “The overall headline view is that everything is remarkably in line with expectations. "The Fed will look positively on a further rise in participation to a new cycle high 62.6%, while a renewed drop in unemployment to 3.5%, coupled with continued healthy headline jobs growth, should cement the case for another 25 bps rate hike at the May meeting."
REUTERS/Issei KatoSummarySummary Companies March U.S. payrolls rise by 236,000 vs 239,000 estimateDollar strengthens, U.S. yields climbNikkei, S&P futures close higherNEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields climbed and U.S. index futures closed modestly higher after employment data for March indicated the labor market remains tight, but was largely in line with market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, compared with the 239,000 expectation of economists surveyed by Reuters. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported. U.S. stock index futures erased losses and turned higher after the report, while the dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields rose as expectations the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its May meeting increased. The dollar index rose 0.167%, with the euro down 0.13% to $1.0906.
Some senior dealmakers at China's third-largest brokerage by market value will see an even steeper cut of two-thirds to their 2022 bonuses, said one of the people. The trend has accelerated as employers cut pay and perks in response to the government's "common prosperity" rhetoric. MILDER CUTSA senior investment banker in China could earn three million to 10 million yuan ($445,000 to $1.48 million) a year in total remuneration, excluding stock incentives, industry sources have said. By way of comparison, Wall Street bonuses fell 26% last year to average $176,700, versus a record 2021, showed a report last month from New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. Besides remuneration cuts, some investment banks have asked staff to avoid displays of wealth such as by uploading photographs to social media of expensive meals or overseas trips, industry sources said.
Stock futures were near flat Wednesday night as investors considered what the latest data suggested about the health of the broader economy. Those moves come as investors digest the latest data released this week to see if the labor market has shown signs of weakening. Investors will watch Thursday for jobless claims data for more insights into the strength of the labor market. Thursday will cap off a shortened trading week with the market closed for Good Friday. But investors will still follow Friday's data on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly wages.
The flow may be signalling a shift in sentiment among foreign investors who have been notably absent while China's markets and economy roared back to life after Beijing abruptly lifted its stringent zero-COVID policy in December. Alibaba's shares (9988.HK) are up more than 14% in the five days since the company's announcement and some 11.7 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) in foreign cash has flowed into China's markets. That's already more than the net 9.2 billion yuan in inflows in February and drove March flows to 35.4 billion yuan and the quarter's inflow to a record of 186 billion yuan. Premier Li Qiang assured foreign investors that China would unswervingly adhere to reform and opening up, expanding market access and optimising the business environment. Ernest Yeung, a portfolio manager at U.S. asset manager T. Rowe Price, anticipated "a gradual process of stabilisation" of private enterprises and the internet sector.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan on steepening Treasury curveMona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her market outlook, market bottom and trends.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect markets to price in a recession twice, says Edward Jones' Mona MahajanMona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her market outlook, market bottom and trends.
There's a corner of the market gaining traction among ETF investors, according to The ETF Store's Nate Geraci. BofA Global Research's latest market data out late this week appears to support Geraci's thesis. Tierney of Schwab Asset Management contends retail investors don't own enough global stocks. "Rebalancing [to international stocks] to get some more exposure could make sense for a lot of investors," said the senior investment portfolio strategist. His firm's Schwab International Equity ETF , which tracks large- and mid-cap companies in over 20 developed global markets, is up 8.1% so far this year.
On the heels of the inflation data, Boston Federal Reserve president Susan Collins said it remains "early days yet" for the central bank in determining whether the Fed has hiked rates enough to lower inflation to its 2% target. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.66% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.75%. Expectations the Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle have helped send U.S. Treasury yields lowerrecently. The dollar pared some gains against the euro in the wake of the U.S inflation data, as investors see the Fed pausing its rate hiking cycle before the European Central Bank. The dollar index rose 0.117%, with the euro down 0.25% to $1.0874.
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