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The latest Bloomberg poll shows forecasters give 55% odds for a US recession in the next 12 months. Bank of America broke down the top factors to watch for ahead of a potential downturn. Third, investors should also understand that recessions typically do not last long. On average, recessions last just over 10 months, Bank of America said. Stock returns from post-recession lows have proved historically strong, with an average of 19.7% 3-month returns, 28% 6-month returns, and 43.7% 12-month returns.
Persons: , Merrill, Joseph P, Quinlan, Stock Organizations: Bloomberg, Bank of America, of, Service, BofA Private Bank, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Locations: of America's
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said central banks' outlook from 18 months ago was "100% dead wrong." Dimon is doubtful that central banks and governments can manage the coming turmoil. In a panel at the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the banker called out governments and central banks, and said some more humility should be in order. "I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong," Dimon added. "Fiscal spending is more than it's ever been in peacetime and there's this omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff," Dimon said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , JPMorgan Chase, I've, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Future Investment Initiative, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine
The cost of buying a home versus renting is at its most extreme level in decades, the Wall Street Journal reported. The average new monthly mortgage payment is 52% higher than the average apartment rent, CBRE data shows. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe premium for buying a home versus renting has it hit extreme levels, as soaring mortgage rates have exacerbated a historically unaffordable housing market. Then after 2008's housing bubble burst, buying a home was about 12% cheaper than renting one in the 2010s, as mortgage rates were low. And home prices have remained elevated even as mortgage rates have climbed, which doesn't usually happen.
Persons: Organizations: Wall Street Journal, Service, Mortgage, Treasury
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.
Persons: , Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York
The token spiked 10% briefly on Tuesday after a false report said the SEC approved BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF. Bullishness around a the spot bitcoin ETF is high, with calls growing for the SEC to sign off on a first-ever fund. AdvertisementAdvertisementBitcoin moved above $30,000 on Friday, spiking above the closely watched threshold before paring some gains, as a week of bullishness around a spot bitcoin ETF helps push the token higher. Hopes for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund have helped fuel the latest rally. The SEC has already approved bitcoin futures ETFs, though regulators have turned down bitcoin spot ETF applications repeatedly in recent years.
Persons: Bitcoin, , Mike Novogratz, Novogratz, Gary Gensler Organizations: SEC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Fidelity, Galaxy Digital, House Financial Services Locations: New York, BlackRock
US stocks opened mixed on Friday, as the 10-year Treasury yield hovered just below 5%. Oil prices rose and are on pace for a second week of gains as conflict in the Middle East continues. A US Navy destroyer also shot down missiles launched from Yemen that could have been headed for Israel. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks opened mixed on Friday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury hovered just below 5% while oil prices rose amid fears the Israel-Hamas conflict could spread.
Persons: , Michael Reinking, Reinking Organizations: Treasury, US Navy, Service, Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, NYSE, Dow Jones Locations: Yemen, Israel, Gaza
US stocks dropped Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back but remained close to 5%. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The 10-year Treasury dipped by about seven basis points to 4.912%, only down slightly from a day earlier when the benchmark bond yield touched 5% for the first time since 2007. AdvertisementAdvertisementA day earlier, Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that rates could stay unchanged at the November meeting, but that doesn't mean future hikes are out of the question.
Persons: Brent, , Loretta Mester, Mester, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Cleveland Fed, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Manhattan Institute, Dow Jones Locations: Israel, Gaza
Investors arrive to the election looking at an economy in recession as a crippling drought hit the key agricultural sector. The gap to the official rate is above 150%. On the line is the survival of the country's $43 billion program with the International Monetary Fund and the possibility that Argentina defaults on its debt for a 10th time. "Dollarization would not cure the main issue in Argentina, which is a really large fiscal problem." "Debt does not need to be an immediate priority," said Khan, who doesn't expect dollarization to top the near-term list either.
Persons: Patricia Bullrich, Martin Cossarini, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Alejandro di Bernardo, Bernardo, Milei, Massa, Gabriel Rubinstein, Elijah Oliveros, Rosen, Zulfi Ali, Shamaila Khan, Khan, Hans Humes, Humes, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Susan Fenton Organizations: el Cambio, REUTERS, NEW, International Monetary Fund, Jupiter Asset, Bullrich, WE, JPMorgan, China, Institute of International Finance, IMF, America, PGIM, Oxford Economics, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Massa, Greylock Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Washington
The conflict with Hamas that began October 7 will have widespread financial implications for Israel. A top Israeli economist said a recession in Israel is likely, and Fitch put the country's credit rating on watch for downgrade. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Yet in less than two weeks, Israel's shekel has weakened about 4.8% to hit multi-year lows against the dollar. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Bank of Israel deputy governor Andrew Abir said policymakers would prioritize stabilizing the currency over growth.
Persons: Fitch, , Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joseph Zeira, Zeira, Israel's shekel, Andrew Abir, Lee Hardman Organizations: Hamas, Service, Tel, Israel's Defense Forces, Hebrew University, CNBC, Bank of Israel, Traders, Deutsche Bank, Financial Times, MUFG Bank Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Tel Aviv, Gaza, Israeli, Iran
Rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 8% on Wednesday, per Mortgage News Daily. It's the first time the interest rate on the most popular US home loan hit that mark since mid-2000. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor the first time since 2000, the rate on the typical 30-year fixed mortgage hit 8% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates are a critical input for the affordability equation for prospective home buyers, and in previous eras of rising rates, home prices have declined as borrowing costs increase. The rise in rates has sent mortgage applications tumbling to their lowest level in almost three decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Persons: Bond, Organizations: Mortgage, Service, Mortgage News, Treasury, Association, National Association of Realtors
Goldman Sachs' 12-month recession probability is hovering at 15%, about the "historical unconditional average." A WSJ survey showed the consensus probability of a downturn in the next year dipped below 50% for the first time since mid-2022. Here's how recession expectations have changed over the last 18 months. The consensus among Wall Street economists has shifted again, tilting further in favor of the no recession camp, at least in the near to medium-term. AdvertisementAdvertisement"That model implies larger effects of monetary policy and faster policy transmission than other empirical models," the economists explained in September.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , That's, Goldman, Stefania D'Amico, Thomas King Organizations: Service, Street, Journal’s, Economic, Goldman Sachs Investment, Chicago, Consumer, Index
Rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.92% on Tuesday, Mortgage News Daily's Rate Index showed. High mortgage rates, expensive home prices, and low inventory have strained the US housing market. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe average rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.92% on Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily's index. Rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.92% on October 17. It's helped fuel a lock-in effect for current homeowners unwilling to move homes due to having previously secured a lower mortgage rate, keeping both sellers and buyers off the market.
Persons: , they've, Redfin Organizations: Mortgage, Service, Mortgage News Daily Mortgage, Federal
Some of the lost demand for energy in Europe may be gone for good, the CEO of Vitol said. Global gas prices soared in 2022 after Russia cut off its gas supply to Europe, disrupting the energy sector. "We can expect some of that lost demand to stay lost forever." AdvertisementAdvertisementTurmoil and soaring prices in the energy sector have crimped demand in Europe, and the chief executive of Vitol warned that some of that demand may never return. Hardy, speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum, added: "We can expect some of that lost demand to stay lost forever."
Persons: Vitol, , Russel Hardy, Hardy, Fatih Birol, Birol Organizations: Global, Service, Reuters, Energy Intelligence, International Energy Agency, Financial Times Locations: Europe, Russia, London, Ukraine, Moscow, Israel
Stubbornly high mortgage rates have taken a toll on builder sentiment, the group said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHomebuilder confidence just plunged to its lowest mark in 10 months, the National Association of Home Builders announced on Tuesday. The group cited stubbornly high mortgage rates as the primary drag on confidence. On Tuesday, rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.92%, according to Mortgage News Daily's index. Buyers and sellers alike have largely been kept on the sidelines as mortgage rates hover near multi-decade highs and moving homes looks unattractive.
Persons: , Alicia Huey, Robert Dietz, Dietz Organizations: Service, National Association of Home Builders, Market, Mortgage, Builders, Federal Locations: Wells Fargo
Soaring diesel prices this summer have raised financial stress for carriers, the report added. Diesel prices eased from March to June, but then spiked 18% from July to September. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe national average for diesel prices on Monday hovered at $4.456, AAA data shows. "For every 50 cents diesel prices increased in 2023, Motive saw a 30% increase in companies' financial stress." MotiveMotive anticipates diesel prices to stay volatile for the year ahead, and consumer demand will have to stay level or even grow to match the freight market's capacity and help it stabilize.
Persons: , Motive Organizations: Motive, Soaring, Service, AAA, Motive Motive
US stocks climbed Monday amid diplomacy efforts in the Middle East. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel Monday, and President Joe Biden is considering a trip. Traders also are watching for earnings from Tesla, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks moved higher in Monday's trading session amid US diplomacy efforts to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, , Biden, Patrick Harker Organizations: Israel, Traders, Tesla, Bank of America, Service, CNN, Netflix, Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Here's, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza
China's economy hasn't seen the post-pandemic rebound as many expected, but its film industry is running strong. From June to September, Chinese consumers spent $3.2 billion at the box office, a record high for that stretch. Meanwhile, China's economy faces weak growth, a shaky property sector, and declining trade. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementChina's economy has yet to enjoy the post-pandemic rebound many had anticipated, but its movie industry has thrived nonetheless.
Persons: hasn't, , Barbie, Oppenheimer, Lehman, Alfredo Montufar Organizations: Service, CNN, China Center, Conference Board Locations: Dengta, China, Beijing
Eyes on the SenateCalifornia hosts a high-profile 2024 Senate race, as a crowded field vies to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Porter’s report showed her campaign collected $3.4 million and had amassed nearly $12 million in cash on hand by September 30. One of Sinema’s top challengers, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, had a strong fundraising quarter by contrast. And in Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey raised $3.2 million and had nearly $7.4 million on hand for another top race. Kim outraises MenendezFederal prosecutors last month lodged bribery-related charges against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, just days before the end of the fundraising quarter.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Scott, DeSantis, meanwhile, Trump’s, Haley, Christie, Nikki Haley’s, Haley’s, Chris Christie, Democratic Sen, Dianne Feinstein, Adam Schiff, Schiff, Katie Porter, Barbara Lee, Porter’s, Lee, Sen, Laphonza Butler, Gavin Newsom, Kyrsten Sinema, Sinema, hasn’t, Ruben Gallego, Gallego, Kari Lake, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Jim Justice, Alex Mooney, Matt Dolan, Bernie Moreno –, Sherrod Brown, Dolan, Moreno, Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Sam Brown, Debbie Stabenow’s, Elissa Slotkin, Slotkin, Hill Harper, Bob Casey, Republican Dave McCormick, McCormick, Kim outraises Menendez, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Andy Kim, Kim, George Santos, Santos, , Amy Walter, Curtis Hertel, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Gavin de Becker, Trump Organizations: CNN, White, Florida Gov, White House, Trump, N2024D, GOP, PAC, South Carolina Gov, Former New Jersey Gov, Senate California, Democratic, Los, Democratic Gov, Democratic Party, Senate, Democratic Rep, Arizona Republicans, Pinal County Sheriff, West, Cleveland Guardians MLB, Republican, Bob Menendez of New, Republicans, Congressional District, RFK Jr, Associates Locations: Florida, Trump, South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Los Angeles, Arizona, Pinal County, Ohio, Cleveland, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Bob Menendez of, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, York, Long, Michigan’s, Democratic, California
Box office receipts totaled 23.44 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) between June and September, the highest amount for that period in history, according to data from Dengta and Maoyan, China’s two major box office tracking apps. Ticket sales for the traditional high season between June and August soared to a record 20.6 yuan ($2.8 billion), smashing the previous summer peak of 17.8 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) recorded in 2019. “I’ve been a big fan of American and European movies,” Peng said. Powered by womenThat China’s recent box office boom has been driven by women is surprising given the gender imbalance in the country. So far this year, American films accounted for only about 14% of China’s box office, the second largest in the world, according to CNN calculations based on Dengta data.
Persons: Alibaba, , Stanley Rosen, Rosen, , Fred Astaire, Ginger Rogers, Barbie ”, “ Oppenheimer, ” Perry Peng, she’s, “ We’ve, “ Barbie, “ I’ve, ” Peng, ” Pency Peng, Perry’s, Xuguang Chen, Chen, Kevin Tran, Tran Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, USC’s, China Institute, Warner Bros, CNN, School of Arts, Peking University, , Morning, Hollywood Locations: China, Hong Kong, Dengta, United States, Shanghai, WarnerBros .
Mortgage-purchase applications are hovering near their lowest mark in 30 yearsRedfin's Homebuyer Demand Index dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year, down 5% since last October. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe unaffordable housing market has weighed on homebuyer demand across the US, according to a Thursday Redfin report. Many house hunters and current owners have stayed sidelined with mortgage rates near two-decade highs and the median monthly mortgage payment approaching $3,000. Plus, Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, a gauge that tracks tour requests and other early-stage demand signals, has dropped 5% compared to last October, seasonally adjusted, hovering at its lowest level in nearly a year. AdvertisementAdvertisementWeak homebuyer demand comes amid the Federal Reserve's historic rate hiking campaign.
Persons: , Redfin Organizations: Mortgage, Service, Association .
US housing affordability has sharply eroded over the last several years. Moody's strategists broke down the repercussions of unaffordability and illustrated it in the chart below. In the last decade, Moody's said, Florida, Idaho, and Nevada saw the steepest declines in affordability, largely fueled by an influx of new residents and housing demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, extreme weather events, construction inflation, and excessive litigation, Moody's strategists said, have made insurance more expensive. These headwinds to housing market affordability, in Moody's view, will ultimately have negative implications for credit.
Persons: , Moody's Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Moody's, Insurance, Institute Locations: Moody's, Oregon, Washington , Colorado , Florida , Massachusetts, New York, Hawaii, California, Florida , Idaho, Nevada, Florida, Arizona , California , Colorado, Utah
But the coach of Maccabi Ra'anana believes continuing his team's tour against NBA clubs while his country is at war was the right decision. “We are the first team that is playing since the war started and nobody will break Israel, because we are a strong nation,” Orland said before the game. The team from the Israeli National League was playing the first of three games during its tour. The ensuing Israeli bombardment has killed more than 1,530 people in Gaza, according to authorities on both sides. Orland and team sponsor Jeffrey Rosen said one player had chosen to return home, though didn't specify a reason.
Persons: — Yehu Orland, Maccabi Ra'anana, ” Orland, Israel ”, Noa Kirel, Ra'anana, Eli Ginsberg, Orland's, Orland, Ginsberg, Eli . Forever, , Jeffrey Rosen, I’m Organizations: , Maccabi, NBA, Israeli National League, Barclays Center, Nets, Saturday, Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves Locations: Israel, Brooklyn, York, Israeli, U.S, Gaza
The 10-year Treasury yield spiked about 12 basis points Thursday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to hover at 4.714%, near the 16-year highs reached the week prior. Earlier in the week on Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 15 basis points in the steepest single-day decline since the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank in March. September CPI showed prices rose 3.7% on an annualized basis in September, above the expected 3.6%, and the same level as August's reading.
Persons: , recalibrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Treasury, Service, Valley Bank, Fed, Allianz Investment Management, Wall Street
The typical rent in the US climbed 3.2% year-over-year to hit $2,047 in September, Zillow data shows. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe typical US monthly rent payment climbed to $2,047 in September, according to Zillow data. While the total monthly bill is higher on average, the rate of rent price growth has slowed down for 19 consecutive months. Typical monthly rent prices hit $1,281 in January 2015, $1,446 in January 2018, and $1,594 in January 2021. AdvertisementAdvertisementOut of the 50 largest US metropolitan areas, September rents climbed the most month-over-month in Milwaukee (0.8%), Virginia Beach (0.8%), and Philadelphia (0.7%).
Persons: , Zillow, hunkering Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Austin Locations: Milwaukee, Virginia Beach, Philadelphia, Memphis, Orlando, economize
China has banned brokers from opening overseas trading accounts, the Financial Times reported. Chinese regulators ordered brokerages to shut down "new account opening channels for domestic investors." AdvertisementAdvertisementChinese regulators have banned brokerage firms from opening overseas trading accounts for local investors, according to a report from The Financial Times. The regulator asked brokers to stop offering services to local and overseas investors, and that "opening overseas fund accounts for domestic investors is prohibited." Overseas investors have sold Chinese equities at a record pace in 2023.
Persons: , Lehman, Nicholas Spiro Organizations: Financial Times, Service, China's Securities Regulatory Commission, Overseas, Lauressa Locations: China, Beijing
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