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Morning Bid: Congress unswept, crypto a mess
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Incumbent Democrats enjoyed a stronger-than-expected showing, with a chance of retaining the Senate, limiting expected losses in the House of Representatives and taking important governors' races. Regardless of the poll results, problems in the crypto world deepened amid fears of widespread contagion and selling following the near collapse of a major exchange on Tuesday. Perhaps partly related to the crypto shakeout, shares in Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday after filings showed owner Elon Musk sold almost $4 billion Tesla shares before his Twitter takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Morning Bid: Polls and prices
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Chinese stocks continued last week's tentative recovery, however, despite officials throwing cold water on any early end to draconian COVID lockdown policies. Some correction of the market's severe underperformance this year was about the only cogent reason given for the ongoing stock bounce. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Fabio Panetta both speak. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. The odds of a 75-basis-point rise went as high as 64% immediately after the payrolls data. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 1.1% against the yen to 146.65 yen , posting losses for a third straight week.
Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 263,000, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%. "And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point." The Fed's key policy rate currently sits in a 3.75%-4.00% range. "I had interest rates in September peaking at around 4.9% in the March-April (2023) kind of time frame," Kashkari said. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby, Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, data showed on Friday. Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs added instead of 263,000 as previously reported. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from September's 3.5%. Despite the strong jobs data, Fed officials on Friday said a smaller rate increase is still on the table for the December policy meeting. read moreThe dollar fell 0.8% against the yen to 147.06 yen , while the euro rose 1.7% to $0.9920 .
Fed's Barkin sees 'potentially a higher end point' for rates
  + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Nov 4 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Friday said he is ready to act more "deliberatively" on consideration of the pace of future U.S. interest rate hikes, but said rates could continue rising for longer and to a higher end point than previously expected. And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point," Barkin said in the interview. "The labor market remains tight, and you can point to the unemployment rate. You can point to wages," Barkin said. "I do think the labor market remains tight and that means there's still more work to do."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report shows labor market remains tight, says Richmond Fed President Tom BarkinTom Barkin, Richmond Fed President, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the tight labor market, how firms are handling price increases, and equity markets pricing in rate changes.
There are two big hurdles for markets in the week ahead - another potentially hot consumer inflation report and the Congressional midterm elections. "100% of the time, the S & P 500 has been up 12 months after the midterm election." Midterm rallies Stocks tend to gain in the final months of midterm election years, and strategists have been expecting the market to move higher. CFRA Chief Market Strategist Sam Stovall said even when interest rates are climbing, the midterm election has been a catalyst for stocks. He examined market performance in other midterm election years when interest rates were going up.
At the same time, an in-house Inspector General (IG) investigation into the regional Fed trading activities still hasn't been released and it's unclear when it will be. Unresolved in that process are publicly available disclosures for top staff at regional Fed banks. Right now, only disclosures for the Fed chief, members of the Fed's Board of Governors, top central bank staff and regional bank presidents are available. Given the quasi-private nature of the 12 regional Fed banks, there's no formal mechanism to compel those institutions to release this information. The Fed faced some criticism last year for failing to identify the financial trading activity that ensnared the regional bank presidents.
Tech tonic and Sunak salve
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A massive week for top technology firms worldwide pits U.S. mega cap earnings against the withering slide in China tech shares amid domestic political and economic fears. read moreBut the decimation of Chinese tech stocks (.HSTECH) this week was more worrying. read moreU.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies such as Pinduoduo (PDD.O), JD.com and Baidu Inc plunged between 12% and 25% in New York on Monday. read moreHSBC's shares fell almost 7% in London, meantime, as investors digested a sudden management change and rising bad loan charges. As investors awaited the European Central Bank's latest interest rate rise on Thursday, German business readings were above forecast for October.
Morning Bid: Gimme Shelter
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. read moreBut with the pound falling anew against the dollar on the credit rating and IMF warnings, the real problem is in UK government bonds, or gilts. read moreWith Wall Street stocks hitting a new low for the year on Tuesday, global shares sank to two-year lows on Wednesday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and a host of other Fed speakers are in the diary again for later on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.
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