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At the same time, hiring remained strong through March, and wages continue growing faster than Fed officials feel is sustainable. The ECI is only released quarterly and includes both worker pay and benefits like healthcare, giving what Fed officials regard as a clearer sense of employment-related cost trends. For Fed officials, it could influence their view of whether the economy and inflation are likely to slow more - perhaps much more - quickly than anticipated. Reuters GraphicsEconomists expect the upcoming survey will show conditions tightening further still, this time alongside data showing credit from banks in decline. "Banks may not be done tightening lending standards, which will restrict access to credit, hurt business investment, reduce business formation, and weigh on job growth and consumer spending."

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans. Investors assessed what could be next for Fed policy, especially regarding interest rates. Many are expecting the central bank to announce another 25 basis point interest rate hike after its next meeting on May 2-3. That fueled investor concerns about further interest rate hikes, and rates staying elevated for longer — a prospect which Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also hinted at. On Thursday, investors will be scanning remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester for fresh policy hints.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - Data showing British inflation stayed above 10% in March meant the pound climbed against the dollar while other currencies dipped, with the greenback underpinned by a tick-up in U.S. yields. Sterling was last 0.25% higher at $1.2454, heading back to last week's 10-month high, after data showed British consumer price inflation eased by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%. However, he added: "With the Fed expected to hike in May and the ECB to hike by more over the coming months, the positive impetus from this data for the pound will likely be contained." Expectations for higher official rates in a market relative to those elsewhere typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting cash into a country while boosting its currency. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round."

West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude fell 33 cents, also 0.4%, to $80.53 a barrel. In Europe, European Central Bank officials are also wary of inflation and suggesting interest rates must keep rising. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. ,Adding more pressure on oil benchmarks is Asian refiners continuing to seize Russian crude in April. India and China have snapped up the vast majority of Russian oil so far in April at prices above the Western price cap of $60 per barrel, according to traders and Reuters calculations.

☆ Dollar regains footing as yields rise, Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which gauges the greenback against six major peers, ticked up 0.09% to 101.81 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. The dollar-yen pair, which tends to track U.S. yields, added 0.19% to 134.35 yen per dollar , recovering from a 0.29% retreat on Tuesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The dollar index last year culminated a breathless 16-month surge by hitting a two-decade high of 114.78 at the end of September, which was followed by a steep, steady retreat until the start of February. However, bank earnings from recent days have proved robust overall, and bond yields have recovered strongly from multi-month lows reached last month.

April 19 (Reuters) - Oil drifted lower on Wednesday as the market weighed potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve that could slow growth and dampen oil consumption, offsetting falling U.S. inventories and strong Chinese economic data. The U.S. Federal Reserve likely has one more interest rate rise in store to fight inflation, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. ,Adding more pressure on the oil benchmarks is that Asian refiners continues to seize Russian crude in April. India and China have snapped up the vast majority of Russian oil so far in April at prices above the Western price cap of $60 per barrel, according to traders and Reuters calculations.

☆ Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

☆ Oil prices edge higher on falling US inventories, China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories were seen falling and on strong Chinese economic data, signalling strengthening fuel demand. Keeping prices from moving higher were concerns that potential increases in U.S. interest rates could dampen growth in the top oil-consuming country. Prices got a lift from an industry report showing that U.S. crude stocks fell by about 2.68 million barrels in the week ended April 14, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories fell by about 1.02 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 1.9 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to media. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed.

☆ Stocks advance, US 10-year yield slips as earnings roll in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsGoldman peer Bank of America (BAC.N) veered between gains and losses in choppy trading after its earnings beat estimates, and was last up 0.63%. "Earnings season so far has actually been better than expected by far on both earnings and revenues," said Randy Frederick, managing director, trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.38% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.24%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.3 basis points to 3.578% while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, was up 2.8 basis points at 4.216%. U.S. crude settled up 0.04% at $80.86 per barrel and Brent was at $84.77, up 0.01% on the day.

☆ Oil prices edge higher on falling U.S. inventories, China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An oil pumpjack operates in the Inglewood Oil Field on January 28, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories were seen falling and on strong Chinese economic data, signaling strengthening fuel demand. Keeping prices from moving higher were concerns that potential increases in U.S. interest rates could dampen growth in the top oil-consuming country. Gasoline inventories fell by about 1.02 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 1.9 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to media. Meanwhile, the economy of top crude oil importer China grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter, while the country's oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed.

☆ European markets set for flat open as investors digest comments by Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a flat open Wednesday as earnings season continues and investors digest mixed signals from U.S. Federal Reserve officials on the trajectory of interest rate hikes. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he sees one more rate hike of 25 basis points, before pausing to see its impact on the economy. That would take the U.S. Federal Funds rate to 5% to 5.25%. Bostic's words come as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told Reuters that he favors a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% and 5.75%. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday as Wall Street's earnings season continued and U.S. Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed signals on future rate hikes. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he sees one more rate hike of 25 basis points, before pausing to see its impact on the economy. This would take the U.S. Federal Funds rate to 5% to 5.25%. Bostic's words come as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told Reuters that he favors a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% and 5.75%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was 0.11% up in early trading, while Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.27% and the Topix fell 0.3%.

☆ Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while investors assessed the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. The Fed should continue raising rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said one more hike "should be enough" before taking a step back to "see how our policy is flowing through the economy." Markets see a 95% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates next month.

☆ Gold drifts lower on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies US dollar up 0.1%Markets pricing in 25 bps rate hike by Fed in MayApril 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while traders assessed chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,003.03 per ounce, as of 0337 GMT. The dollar index was up 0.1%, making gold expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "While that may provide an anchor for gold prices, given the recent rally and overextended technical conditions, the possibility of some unwinding (in prices) upon validation of the Fed's rate outlook may still remain on the table." Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Bitcoin and ether fall as investors weigh persistent inflation and rising interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin has been closely correlated with stock indexes, in particular the Nasdaq, which rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage point. The price of bitcoin was last lower by about 3% and trading at $29,202.54, while ether fell 5% to $1,977.28. Bitcoin slid toward $29,000 on Wednesday as traders mulled over the likelihood that Federal Reserve rate cuts may be further away than they thought. Meanwhile in the U.S., Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday that he anticipates one more 25 basis point interest rate increase and then a hold "for quite some time." "It is hard to trust any crypto rally with the state of market liquidity, so a sharp drop towards the downside is hardly a surprise."

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Goldman Sachs is struggling
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. First, commercial banks, which primarily serve consumers and businesses by accepting their deposits and extending loans to them. Higher interest rates for longer means tighter margins, lower profits for companies and a general slowdown in the economy. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Goldman Sachs' tough quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Dollar regains footing amid higher yields as Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday after it seesawed with bond market volatility as investors scrutinized U.S. economic indicators, Federal Reserve commentary and corporate earnings for clues about the path for interest rates. The dollar index — which gauges the greenback against six major peers — ticked up 0.11% to 101.83 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , which are extremely sensitive to Fed expectations, reached an almost one-month high of 4.231% overnight, and remained elevated in Tokyo trading on Wednesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The Aussie eased 0.06% to $0.67245 on Wednesday, following a 0.41% rally in the prior session.

☆ Fed's Bostic sees one more quarter-point rate hike, then a hold 'for quite some time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday he envisions the central bank approving one more interest rate increase before pausing to see how policy tightening is impacting the economy. That 0.25 percentage point increase likely will come at the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's May 2-3 meeting. "If the data come in as I expect, we will be able to hold there for quite some time," he said. Bostic said inflation is still running too strong to consider cuts. Bostic added that tight monetary policy is likely to persist despite the recent troubles in the banking industry that are forecast to trigger the recession.

J&J (JNJ.N) shares fell 2.8% after the healthcare conglomerate cautioned investors over the lingering impact of inflation-driven costs this year. Goldman (GS.N) shares dropped 1.7% after the Wall Street firm's profit fell 19% as dealmaking and bond trading slumped. The early quarterly results from S&P 500 companies come as investors have been bracing for a gloomy reporting season, fearing the economy may be on the cusp of a downturn. S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have declined 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES data as of Friday. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 143 new lows.

☆ Oil prices steady as strong China data offsets US rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

2 oil consumer China offset concerns that possible increases in U.S. interest rates could dampen growth in the top consuming country. China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter while oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. The dollar eased on Tuesday after the upbeat China data. Most traders, however, believe that the recent crude price rally is in need of a correction, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Crude prices posted gains for the last four weeks, a streak not seen since June 2022.

☆ Dollar bounces as expectations of Fed rate hike climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March, so-called core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, slipped just 0.3% last month, data released on Friday showed. So I think that will increase (expectations) for the Fed to continue raising interest rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, stood at 4.1161%, after hitting a roughly two-week top of 4.137% on Friday. Some hawkish Fed speak also aided the higher interest rate expectations, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Fed could hike another 25 bps next month. The offshore yuan fell roughly 0.1% to 6.8786 per dollar.

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