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☆ Dollar edges down from six-week peak, Swedish crown jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.2% to 103.81. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.05 crowns while the dollar was down 1% to 10.3405. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0690, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to $0.6918 ahead of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy meeting on Tuesday.

☆ Dollar edges lower from six-week peak, Swedish crown jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.1% to 103.91. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.059 crowns while the dollar was down 0.8% to 10.3604. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0687, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. "Euro rates are probably likely to stay at higher levels, whereas we think dollar rates will more easily turn lower," Turner added, which he said could support the euro in the first half of the year.

It hit a six-week high of 104.67 on Friday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate increase to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ. The offshore yuan was last marginally higher at 6.8643 per dollar, while the onshore yuan last bought 6.8580 per dollar.

☆ Dollar steady as robust U.S. data keep Fed hawks in control
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The kiwi fell 0.07% to $0.6238, with eyes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate hike to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ. The offshore yuan was last marginally lower at 6.8741 per dollar, while the onshore yuan last bought 6.8657 per dollar.

☆ Dollar buoyant as robust U.S. data keep Fed hawks in control
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"For the week ahead, the dollar can track higher given the recent run of economic data which supports the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled that interest rates will need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The kiwi slipped 0.17% to $0.6232, with eyes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate hike to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ.

☆ Dollar climbs on higher rate expectations, Aussie slides on jobs shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Overall, some weakness indicated by the report ... probably caused markets to pare back some of the interest rate rises pencilled in for the RBA rate hikes." Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after two straight monthly declines, driven by purchases of motor vehicles and other goods, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday. There's very strong labour market data coming through, and the consumers are well supported," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The retail sales data came just a day after U.S. figures showed inflation slowing but still sticky. This added to signs that further hefty BoE interest rate hikes are unlikely.

☆ Analysis: Why China's reopening isn't inflationary
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

However, economists see no challenge to global inflation, pointing instead to Chinese President Xi Jinping's new blueprint for self-sufficiency, broader prosperity and a socialist ideology as checks on big-ticket shopping. The slack in China's labour markets and Beijing's growth priorities will also take the edge off inflation, they say. "I don't think China's recovery or the reopening will cause any significant global inflation," said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. BNP's portfolio managers are positioning for China's rebound to boost regional tourism, but not export price rises for manufactured goods. "I'm very much of the view that (China's reopening) will be positive for the world in terms of either not being too inflationary, but more widely having deflation in some key new goods and services," Westpac senior economist Elliot Clarke said.

☆ Global investors losing appetite for Chinese government bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Signs of a peak in developed market rates are another reason why China's bonds, yielding roughly 3% on 10-year investments, are less appealing, given the potential greater capital gains elsewhere. "If investors are saying that I want to trade the China recovery, the answer is not Chinese government bonds (CGBs). "China bonds served as a very good type of diversifier, in particular over the past 3 years," said Pang. But as global rates hit a peak, it made sense to plough limited cash into better yielding markets, he said. ($1 = 6.7969 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Summer Zhen Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investors' reactions to Biden's State of the Union speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Following are reactions from analysts and investors to U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday, in which he challenged Republicans to lift the debt ceiling and support tax policies that are friendlier to middle class Americans. DAMIEN BOEY, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST, BARRENJOEY, SYDNEY"The most important caveat is that you gotta pass this gridlock that is at the house and the senate. "That is particularly topical because you're going to hit the debt ceiling when you get to August. "So Biden's whole pitch is about inflation coming down, but it is not my problem because it is here before I got here. Biden should be clearer about how they are going to develop the supply chain away from China.

☆ Dollar pulls back as Powell sticks to usual Fed playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar struggled to recover its losses in Asia trade on Wednesday, after slipping in the previous session as Powell spoke. Similarly, the euro was last 0.04% higher at $1.0732, after falling to $1.06695 in the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 103.31, after slipping 0.3% in the previous session. Futures pricing shows that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose 0.16% to 130.88 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

Investors will be looking for Powell's take on the labor market in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington due later in the day, after a sharp rise in jobs growth last week punctured hopes for a tempered Fed. "We expect Chair Powell to emphasize stubbornness in underlying inflation pressures while highlighting the labor market’s strength and capacity to withstand higher rates." U.S. interest-rate futures show that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June, compared with expectations of a peak below 5% prior to Friday's jobs report. "The Fed still has some progress to make, there are signs of positivity in terms of the disinflationary pressures that are in the pipeline, but there is still a labor market problem." Sterling was last 0.4% down against the dollar at $1.1982, after tumbling to a one-month low of $1.1974 in the previous session.

☆ Dollar rally pauses ahead of Powell speech; Aussie lifted by hawkish RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, made a brief breach of Monday's one-month highs, and was last trading at 103.52, roughly flat on the day. Sterling was last 0.1% higher against the dollar at $1.20275, after tumbling to a one-month low of $1.2006 in the previous session. In Asia, the Japanese yen attempted to make back Monday's losses, with the dollar-yen pair down 0.6% at $131.78, moving away from Monday's one-month low of 132.90 per dollar. A newspaper report on Monday said Japan's government has sounded out Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor. Reporting by Rae Wee and Susan Mathew; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kenneth Maxwell and Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar pauses bullish run; Aussie jumps after RBA rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Australian dollar, meanwhile, surged in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision, rising as much as 1% to an intra-day high of $0.6952. The RBA on Tuesday raised its cash rate by an expected 25 basis points, and signalled further rate hikes ahead. Sterling was last 0.27% higher at $1.2054, after tumbling to a one-month low of $1.2006 in the previous session. U.S. Treasury yields have risen on the back of higher rate expectations, with two-year yields touching a one-month high of 4.4930% on Monday. Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 132.24 per dollar, but remained pinned near Monday's one-month low of 132.90 per dollar.

☆ India's Adani still eligible to be part of influential JPMorgan bond indexes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - India's Adani group of companies, which in recent weeks has seen a brutal selloff in its bonds and shares after being targetted by a U.S. short-seller, is still eligible for inclusion in JPMorgan's influential bond indexes, the bank said in a note. Adani, whose business interest includes ports, power generation and transmission, and renewable energy, has a total notional value of $7.7 billion in the JPMorgan's CEMBI and JACI indexes, the bank said on Monday. JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index series (CEMBI) tracks dollar debt issued by emerging market corporations, while its Asia Credit Index (JACI) tracks the total return performance of the Asia fixed-rate dollar bond market. After the release of Hindenburg's report, Adani's weight has decreased by 10 basis points to 36 basis points in the CEMBI Broad Div index and by 15 basis points to 48 basis points in the CEMBI Broad Div IG index, the JPMorgan note said. The Indian conglomerate's weight decreased by 16 basis points to 52 basis points in the JACI index, it added.

☆ Dollar climbs as Treasury yields pop on further Fed hike forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Markets were still reeling from the shock of Friday's jobs report, which showed that non-farm payrolls surged by an eye-watering 517,000 in January, well above expectations. "I don't think the jobs number is key ... but it's definitely a major impact on (the Fed's) monetary policy." U.S. Treasury yields have risen on the back of higher rate expectations, with two-year yields touching a one-month high of 4.493% on Monday. Futures pricing show that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by July, compared with expectations of less than 5% prior to Friday's jobs report. Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 132.37 per dollar, but remained pinned near Monday's one-month low of 132.90 per dollar.

☆ Dollar climbs as central banks see inflation risks unwind
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Elsewhere, the greenback broadly advanced on the back of its Atlantic counterparts' decline, reversing its losses earlier in the week. On Thursday, the ECB and BoE each raised interest rates by 50 basis points as expected, with the latter signalling the tide was turning in its battle against high inflation. The comments from policymakers following a slew of central bank meetings this week have markets seizing on signs that interest rates could be close to peaking in most major economies. "We're starting to see central banks converging to a pattern now ... the major central banks are definitely approaching the end of their tightening cycles," said CBA's Kong. An imminent peak in U.S. rates has provided some relief for the Japanese yen , which last year crumbled under pressure from rising interest rate differentials against Japan's low interest rate environment.

☆ Dollar plunges as Fed says disinflation now in play
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar dived following Powell's remarks, and against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to a fresh nine-month low of 100.80. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar fell 0.55% to 128.21. With the Fed out of the way, the stage is set for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to announce their rate decisions later on Thursday, where expectations are for a 50bp hike from each. "I don't think that's going to influence the messaging from the ECB, which I think is still going to be that (they've) got a lot to do," Attrill said. Markets are now expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just under 4.9% by June, compared with earlier expectations of a peak of just below 5%.

Foreign investors, many of them already underweight what they consider an overpriced stock market, are reducing exposure. "Only Adani Group is trading with these ridiculously high multiples, and that is the core of the problem." "At this point in time, I don’t think it’s a systemic risk," said Jimmy Lim, chief investment officer at Modular Asset Management in Singapore. "We don't think that there's going to be a default anytime soon, although I don't expect any kind of near-term resolution between Adani Group and Hindenburg," Chao said. Yet Chao expects the selloff to help bring Indian stock valuations to more "palatable levels" for investors.

☆ Investor reaction to Adani market rout after short-seller report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The rout has sparked concern that the fallout could also affect, more broadly, confidence in India. GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE (UNDERWEIGHT ON INDIA)"The Adani effect works both ways given the market cap relative to index. "To attract more capital the Indian economy needs more FTAs (free-trade agreements) and more financial market reform - a long process." Given there has not been any significant change for now for the market valuation, the market remains overall expensive in our view." Adani is a known levered name in India, so I would think most participants should not associate the same issues for other Indian assets."

New Jersey-based Celsius filed for U.S. bankruptcy in July last year, after freezing customer withdrawals from its platform. She was tasked with investigating accusations by Celsius customers that the company operated as a Ponzi scheme and also with reporting on its handling of cryptocurrency deposits. Celsius gathered crypto deposits from retail customers and invested them in the equivalent of the wholesale crypto market. It raised some of the initial capital to fund its business by creating and selling its own crypto token, called "CEL". "The business model Celsius advertised and sold to its customers was not the business that Celsius actually operated," the report said.

☆ Celsius' business model different from that advertised -U.S. bankruptcy examiner
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The business model that crypto firm Celsius Network had advertised and sold to its customers was not the business it actually operated, a court-ordered examiner report released on Tuesday showed. The report added that Celsius's stablecoin deficit between May 28, 2021 and its bankruptcy filing amounted to a billion-dollar hole in its assets. Hoboken, New Jersey-based Celsius filed for Chapter 11 protection from creditors last July in Manhattan after freezing customer withdrawals from its platform. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Martin Glenn, who is overseeing the Chapter 11 case, appointed former prosecutor Shoba Pillay as an independent examiner in September. She was tasked with investigating accusations by Celsius customers that the company operated as a Ponzi scheme and also with reporting on its handling of cryptocurrency deposits.

SINGAPORE, Jan 31, (Reuters) - Like many rich Chinese, graduate student Zayn Zhang thinks Singapore could be ideal to park his family's wealth. His family might establish a Singapore family office to manage its wealth in the future, he added. Well-known Singapore family offices include those set up by James Dyson of vacuum cleaner fame, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio and Zhang Yong, founder of China's Haidilao hotpot restaurant chain. Though fresher statistics are not available, those involved in the industry said interest in family offices picked up in 2022 and is expected to continue unabated this year. While some are setting up family offices, others are setting up business headquarters in Singapore or investing in funds domiciled in Singapore, she said.

☆ Dollar cautiously firm ahead of busy central bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed on Monday and distanced itself from an eight-month trough ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve's, with traders keenly focused on guidance for the path of interest rate rises. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.03% to 101.92, edging away from last week's eight-month low of 101.50. Moves were subdued ahead of policy meetings from the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. "We will range trade a little bit as the market tries to assess how the central banks behave .... Elsewhere, the Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.71175, while the Japanese yen slipped marginally to 129.94 per dollar.

☆ VIEW Nissan, Renault agree to overhaul alliance, putting themselves on equal footing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"We understand Renault is able to ring fence its own technology within the alliance allowing the firm to collaborate also with other external partners beyond the Renault Nissan alliance. "Overall we welcome this step which will enhance the industrial collaboration within the alliance." JEFFERIES"A re-sized capital structure should help keep the Alliance viable, maintaining synergies and opening up strategic opportunities on both sides. Ultimately it means that a disorderly unwind of the alliance has been avoided which is a positive. "Over the short term, it's possible there may be selling (of Nissan shares) due to a worsening of supply and demand.

This meant the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as low as 101.5, its lowest since the end of May. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The Canadian dollar traded at 1.3387 per U.S. dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. He said the pullback in Fed rate hike expectations following the BoC’s policy decision had triggered a US dollar sell-off alongside Canadian dollar weakness, which "highlights that the US dollar remains vulnerable to a further dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations." Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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