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☆ Rainy March dampens shopper spending in Britain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that sales volumes would fall by a monthly 0.5% after rising in January and February. Darren Morgan, director of economics at the Office for National Statistics, said the broader trend for retail sales was less subdued than the figures for March alone suggested. Retail sales volumes in March were 3.1% lower than a year earlier. "That said, even though the worst of the declines in retail sales are in the past, higher interest rates will restrain spending this year," he said. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting in May, taking Bank Rate to 4.5% from its current level of 4.25%.

☆ Opinion | Wonking Out: Is the American Economy Awesome?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Before I get to the numbers, let’s do what some of my colleagues call the “walking-around test.” I love data — data is a friend of mine — but it’s always a good idea to check data against what you seem to see in real life. I imagine that a number of my American readers have visited European nations or Japan recently; some, like me, have visited them repeatedly over the years. Did they feel as if they’ve fallen farther behind the U.S. than they were, say, 15 or 20 years ago? Thanks to a combination of higher birthrates and higher immigration, America’s population, especially its working-age population — usually (if awkwardly) defined in international statistics as people between 15 and 64 — has grown much faster than that of many advanced-country rivals. If you look at growth per working-age adult, the United States is still ahead, but the disparity — especially with Japan — is much less:

☆ UK inflation is just not going down as cost of living crisis offers 'no respite'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — U.K. inflation remained stubbornly in double digits in March, driven largely by soaring food prices, while the country's cost-of-living crisis shows little sign of abating. The British government still provides residential energy subsidies, guaranteeing a cap on average household energy bills of £2,500 per year until the end of June, along with targeted support to certain vulnerable homes. Consulting, said that the Wednesday figures showed "there is currently no respite from cost of living pressures." "Consumers are doing their best to make savings on essentials in order to maintain discretionary spending — this fragile equilibrium is underwritten by the ongoing energy subsidies without which a tipping point might be reached," he said. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 6.2% over the 12 months, unchanged from the annual climb of February.

Inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, continued to eat into the spending power of workers whose pay is rising by less. Britain's headline inflation rate is now the highest in western Europe and compares with an average of 6.9% in the euro zone and 5.0% in the United States. Austria recorded a higher inflation rate than Britain in February. Reuters GraphicsPOLITICAL PRESSUREHigh inflation is a problem for Britain's government as well as the BoE, which forecast in February that inflation would be below 4% by the end of the year. Producer price inflation - which measures changes in prices charged and paid by manufacturers and often leads changes in CPI - tumbled in March due to lower oil prices.

REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Britain now has western Europe's highest rate of consumer price inflation after it fell by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, official data showed on Wednesday. Despite falling in March, Britain's inflation rate was the highest in western Europe and the only country in the region to post a double-digit number for last month, after Austria recorded a higher inflation rate in February. Last month the BoE said it expected inflation to "fall significantly" in the second quarter. In February, the BoE had forecast March inflation of 9.2%. Inflation in prices charged by manufacturers fell sharply in March to its lowest since October 2021 at 8.7%, down from 11.9% in February, largely reflecting a drop in oil prices.

☆ UK inflation stays at 10% as bread rises at record clip. Here’s why it’s proving hard to beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —UK inflation remained above 10% in March, far higher than in the United States and Europe, as bread prices rose at a record pace. Energy an ‘Achilles’ heel’The United Kingdom is a net importer of energy, unlike the United States. UK inflation to fall sharplyThe good news is that UK inflation is expected to fall rapidly through the remainder of the year, as lower wholesale gas prices feed through to household energy bills. From April, “UK inflation might start to drop faster than in Europe,” he said. But core inflation could take longer to fall in the United Kingdom, according to Gregory of Capital Economics.

☆ UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesU.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills. The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.

☆ UK house prices rise 5.5% year-on-year in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - British house prices increased by 5.5% in the 12 months to February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Wednesday, slowing from January’s upwardly revised 6.5% rise. London was the region with the lowest annual growth, the ONS said, with prices there up 2.9%. More recent gauges of Britain’s housing market have shown a mixed picture. Mortgage lender Nationwide last month reported a 3.1% fall in house prices in the year to March, while rival Halifax said prices rose 1.6% in year-on-year terms. Reporting by Suban Abdulla, editing by Andy BruceOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Sterling eases against dollar; inflation keeps pressure on BoE
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] British pound banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, April 19 - Sterling eased on Wednesday as a higher dollar wiped out earlier gains made after data showed Britain has the highest inflation in western Europe, cementing market expectations for a rate hike at the Bank of England's meeting in May. The inflation data initially sent sterling as much as 0.8% higher against the dollar. On Tuesday data showed British wages rose faster than anticipated last month, further supporting more hikes by the BoE. The market is currently pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 bp rate hike from the Bank of England at its next meeting. .

☆ UK has 18% fewer jobs advertised online than a year ago: ONS
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - The number of jobs being advertised online in Britain on April 6 was 18% lower than a year earlier, though up 1% from the week before, according to weekly data from recruiter Adzuna released by Britain's Office for National Statistics. The ONS also said debit card spending at pubs, restaurants and fast food outlets was 17 percentage points higher than a week earlier, based on transaction data from Revolut, reflecting the Easter holiday weekend. Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William JamesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UK economy flat in February as strikes and inflation bite — and the IMF delivers reality check
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy flatlined in February as widespread industrial action and persistently high inflation stymied activity. Large-scale strike action has been carried out in recent months by teachers, doctors, civil servants and rail workers, among others — members of the sectors that were the largest contributors to the fall in February services output. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility no longer expects the U.K. economy to enter a technical recession in 2023 — defined as two consecutive quarters of contractions. "Industrial strike action was the primary root cause of stagnating growth in the U.K. over the month. Much of the population also remains mired in a cost-of-living crisis, as inflation continues to vastly outpace wage growth, exacerbating the threat of further industrial action.

The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 (.FTSE) edged 0.1% lower, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) was flat as of 0814 GMT. "Gains in homebuilders is being counteracted by ex-dividend moves today," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. Even as concerns over a potential U.S. recession have weighed on investor sentiment, defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals as well as commodity-linked stocks have kept FTSE 100 afloat recently. Shares of Lloyds Group (LLOY.L), Unite Group (UTG.L) and Persimmon (PSN.L) among others were down between 1.7%-3% as the stocks traded ex-dividend. Reporting by Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Sohini Goswami and Janane VenkatramanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UK economy shows no growth in February as strikes weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Economic output was flat in month-on-month terms in February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to growth of 0.1%. The ONS revised up January's monthly growth rate in the overall economy to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.3%. "A combination of upward revisions in GDP data and an improvement in global economic conditions could help the UK economy avoid a recession this year," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said. "While this will provide relief for policymakers, the outlook for growth in the medium-term remains relatively weak by historical standards."

☆ Italy can cut massive public debt with migrant inflows, Treasury data shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Giuseppe Fonte | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Treasury estimates that a 33% increase in registered migrants in Italy would lead to a fall in public debt in 2070 by "over 30" percentage points more compared to a no-migrants-growth scenario. "Given the demographic structure of migrants entering Italy, the effect on the resident population of working age is significant," the Treasury said. The DEF also said migrant inflows can offset the negative impact on public debt of a shrinking population. Births in Italy dropped to a new historic low below 400,000 in 2022, national statistics bureau ISTAT said last week. Italy's public debt is targeted in the DEF to fall to 140.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 from 142.1% this year.

☆ Mexico's automotive production and exports rise in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

April 10 (Reuters) - Mexican automotive production and exports rose in March from the same month a year earlier, data from the national statistics agency (INEGI) showed on Monday. Production increased by 13.12% to 346,124 vehicles, while auto exports rose 3.88% to 272,687 vehicles, the data showed. Reporting by Ricardo Figuero; Writing by Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Births in Italy hit record low in 2022, population shrinks further
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 7 (Reuters) - Births in Italy dropped to a new historic low below 400,000 in 2022, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Friday, as the population continued to shrink. Last year Italy recorded more than 12 deaths for every seven births and the resident population fell by 179,000 to 58.85 million, ISTAT said in its annual demographic report. The population decline slowed somewhat compared with 2021 and 2020, two years heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Italy recorded 392,600 births in 2022, down from 400,249 the previous year, ISTAT said, the 14th consecutive fall and the lowest number since the country's unification in 1861. Foreigners made up 8.6% of the country's population in 2022, for a total of 5.05 million.

☆ Rising consumer prices in Mexico eased to a 17-month low in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

February's inflation rate stood at 7.62%. Still, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 8.09% from 8.29% the previous month. Month-on-month, Mexico's headline consumer price index rose by 0.27% in March, just under the 0.31% forecast in a Reuters poll. The latest data came ahead of a virtual meeting Wednesday between Latin American leaders from Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Colombia, to discuss measures aimed at combating rising prices in the region. Last week, Mexico's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 11.25%, but moderating the pace of its tightening cycle.

☆ Mexico inflation eases to 17-month low of 6.85% in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 5 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation slowed in March by more than expected to 6.85%, the lowest rate in nearly 1-1/2 years, although core price pressures remained elevated, data from national statistics agency INEGI showed on Wednesday. The March reading was the lowest since October 2021, and came in below the consensus forecast of 6.90%, as determined by a Reuters poll. Still, a measure of core inflation, which strips out some volatile items, slowed less than anticipated to 8.09% from 8.29% the previous month. Month-on-month, Mexico's headline consumer price index rose by 0.27%, less than the 0.31% forecast in the Reuters poll. Banxico has raised rates by 725 basis points since its rate-hiking cycle started in June 2021 to combat inflation.

Despite the improvement, British economic output remained 0.6% below its level of late 2019, the only G7 economy not to have recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said Friday's figures showed high inflation had taken a slightly smaller toll than previously thought. But the picture could darken again if recent turmoil in the global banking sector leads to lenders reining in loans. BUSINESS INVESTMENT FALLSThe data suggested businesses remained cautious. The ONS said increased foreign earnings by companies, particularly in the energy sector, helped narrow the deficit.

Economic output increased by 0.1% from the previous three months after shrinking by 0.1% in the third quarter, which was a smaller contraction than previously thought. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had previously said the economy showed no growth in the fourth quarter. Britain's dominant services sector rose by 0.1%, boosted by a nearly 11% jump for travel agents. The ONS said changes to the way it calculates seasonal adjustments to the data were behind the big revision. The ONS said increased foreign earnings by UK companies, particularly in the energy sector, helped narrow the deficit.

☆ Rio Tinto boosts FTSE 100, worries of recession fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 up 0.1%, FTSE 250 flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 inched up on Friday as miner Rio Tinto rose after signing a partnership to develop a copper project, while relief that the domestic economy avoided a recession last year also aided sentiment. Data by the Office for National Statistics showed UK's economy grew in the fourth quarter as the country narrowly avoided a recession. Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto (RIO.L) rose 0.9% after signing a joint venture with Canada's First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) to develop the La Granja copper project in Peru. Industrial metals miners (.FTNMX551020) housing Rio Tinto added 0.3% by 0721 GMT. The commodity heavy FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was up 0.1%, while the FTSE 250 (.FTMC) was flat.

☆ Europe drought: This once-thriving lake has all but dried up -- a story repeated across Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Laura Paddison | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

While in the United States, the snow and rain that have pummeled California have helped fill reservoirs and ease unrelenting drought, winter has been far from kind to many parts of Europe. A buoy is seen on the banks of the partially dry Lake Montbel as France faces a record winter dry spell. “Lake Montbel remains at an abnormally low level,” Franck Solacroup, the regional director of the Adour-Garonne Water Agency, which covers the area that includes Lake Montbel, told CNN. Farmers like Rouquet, who rely on the lake, are having to make tough decisions on what to grow. “This is the most extreme winter in terms of low snow cover,” she told CNN.

☆ Spain inflation falls more than expected to 3.3% in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 30 (Reuters) - Spain's consumer price inflation slowed to 3.3% in March, its weakest annual rate since August 2021 and down from 6.0% in February, preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute showed on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rate of 3.8%. This drop is mainly due to the fact that electricity and fuel prices increased in March 2022 and decreased this month, the statistics agency said. Core inflation, which strips out volatile fresh food and energy prices, was 7.5% year-on-year, slightly below the 7.6% recorded in February, the data showed. Spain's European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation was 3.1%, down from 6.0% in February and below the 4.0% expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

☆ British retail sales rebound unexpectedly in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - British retail sales unexpectedly rebounded by 1.2% in February from the month before, returning sales volumes to their pre-pandemic level, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that retail sales volumes in February would be 0.2% higher than in January. January sales growth was also revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%. However, Friday's data showed that retail sales volumes in February were still 3.5% lower than a year earlier. British consumers have been squeezed by inflation which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October and has remained in double digits since.

Food prices soared 18.2% through the year to February, the sharpest rise since the late 1970s. The latest figures could make it more likely that the Bank of England hikes interest rates again when it meets Thursday. "It's still a very close call, but these figures give us a bit more confidence in our forecast that the Bank will raise interest rates from 4% to 4.25% tomorrow." The data complicates the central bank's decision over whether it should raise rates for the 11th consecutive time Thursday — and makes it harder for the government to deliver on its January pledge to halve inflation this year. Wages rose 6.5% in January compared with a year prior, far below the inflation rate both that month and in February.

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