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☆ China's Q3 GDP growth, Sept activity show economic recovery gaining momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% in the second quarter and above the forecast for growth of 1.0%. "It seems that all of that stimulus is finally beginning to take effect, with a broad beat from growth, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index in Brisbane. The economy faltered in the second quarter after a brief post-COVID recovery, dragged by a property downturn and huge debt due to a decades-long infrastructure binge. The recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved. Growth of retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also beat expectations, rising 5.5% last month, and accelerating from a 4.6% increase in August.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Matt Simpson, Zhiwei Zhang, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Index, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, Brisbane

☆ China's third-quarter growth exceeds forecast, buoyed by consumer spending and industrial production
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesChina's third-quarter economic growth came in stronger than expected, boosting hopes that the world's second-largest economy will meet or even exceed Beijing's target for about 5% this year. China posted 4.9% growth in the July to September quarter from a year earlier, according to a release from China's National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. This follows the 6.3% print for the April-June quarter and 4.5% growth for the January-March quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China's economy grew 1.3% in the third quarter, stronger than economists' expectations for a 0.9% growth. China's consumer prices were flat in September, on the verge of deflation, while producer price index saw annual declines slow for a third month.

Organizations: Visual China, Getty, China's National Bureau, Statistics, CNBC Locations: Chongqing, China

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Consumers in U.S. and China are powering their economies
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The bureau also said retail sales spiked 5.5% and industrial production grew 4.5% in September, compared with a year earlier. U.S. markets wavered Tuesday as investors digested September's U.S. retail sales report and third-quarter earnings from banks. Retail sales in China also jumped more than expected in September, buoying the country's third-quarter GDP growth. Indeed, the specter of high inflation and, correspondingly, higher-for-longer interest rates, haunted the retail report, at least for the U.S.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Russell of TradeStation, That'd, It's, Russell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: CNBC, Bank of America, Bank of, National Bureau of Statistics, Consumers, U.S, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Independent, Alliance Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai

BANGKOK (AP) — Markets fell in Europe and Asia after China reported Wednesday that its economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace in July-September, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter. The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.2% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1% lower. Weak global demand and the property industry remain the biggest shadows overhanging the economy in the near term, economists said. “The wider data on the property sector remained weak, although green shoots are appearing,” Capital Economics said in a report. Bank of New York Mellon rose 3.8% after it also reported stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter.

Persons: Germany's DAX, Wyndham, Brent, Writers Zen Soo, Stan Choe Organizations: —, CAC, FTSE, Dow Jones, Bureau of Statistics, Nikkei, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Nvidia, Bank of America, Wall, Bank of New, Bank of New York Mellon, Wyndham Hotels, Resorts, ”, New York Mercantile Exchange, AP, Writers Zen Locations: BANGKOK, Europe, Asia, China, Paris, Shanghai, Tokyo, Bank of New York, Iran

☆ China’s GDP allows room for stimulus waiting game
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For any major economy, 5% growth ought to be respectable. Yet anxiety over the attainability of that official target this year is one reason China's policymakers have faced growing calls from global stakeholders for more stimulus. The country’s GDP has grown 5.2% in the first nine months of this year. The world’s second-biggest economy grew 5.2% in the first nine months of 2023. The Chinese government has set a 5% growth target for this year.

Persons: Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Services, National Bureau, Statistics, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, China

☆ Most American men see their earnings plateau after 35 — but not the top 2%, says an economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Kai Xiang Teo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Top-earning US men experience an "astonishing surge in earnings" between the ages of 35 and 45. The top 2% average around $400,000 a year across their working lives, while median earners earn $50,000 annually, per the post. AdvertisementAdvertisementTop-earning American men experience an "astonishing surge in earnings" between the ages of 35 and 45 while other men see their incomes plateau, according to an analysis by economist Serdar Ozkan published Monday. The difference in wage growth is starker earlier in life. From ages 25 to 35, top earners experience a 435% rise in earnings, compared to a 65% increase for median earners.

Persons: Serdar Ozkan, —, Ozkan, Louis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Internal Revenue, Institute, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Locations: Washington

STOCKHOLM/HELSINKI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - A Baltic Sea telecom cable connecting Sweden and Estonia was damaged at roughly the same time as a Finnish-Estonian pipeline and cable were earlier this month, but remains operational, Sweden's civil defence minister said on Tuesday. The damage to the Swedish-Estonian cable was sustained outside the territorial waters and exclusive economic zone of Sweden, the country's civil defence minister, Carl-Oskar Bohlin said, and the cable had continued to function since then. VESSELS IN AREAEurope and NATO have become increasingly concerned about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure around and under the Baltic Sea. The latest incidents follow explosions in September 2022 that ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea and cut Europe's supply of Russian gas. Finland said on Oct. 8 that the Balticconnector subsea gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia had been damaged in what may have been a deliberate act.

Persons: Carl, Oskar Bohlin, Arelion, Ewa Skoog Haslum, NBI, Atomflot, Ulf Kristersson, Nerijus Adomaitis, Niklas Pollard, Simon Johnson, Marie, Gleb Stolyarov, Andrew Gray, Gwladys, Bill Berkrot, Mark Potter, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Estonian Economic Affairs, Communications Ministry, NATO, Reuters, National Bureau of Investigation, NewNew Shipping, Sweden's, Joint Expeditionary Force, Marie Mannes, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, HELSINKI, Sweden, Estonia, Finnish, Estonian, Russian, Swedish, Finland, Hiiumaa, NATO, Baltic, Europe, Rosatom, Oslo, Stockholm, Brussels

☆ China’s Economy Gets a Boost From Beijing, but Housing Woes Persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

China’s economy grew more than expected over the summer, though the real estate market continued to weaken, as the government and the banks it controls poured money into infrastructure and new factories. Data released on Wednesday showed that economic output increased from July through September compared with the prior three months. Over the past year and a half, China’s economy, the world’s second largest, has struggled. In the third quarter — from July through September — the gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent when compared with the three previous months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. For the second quarter, however, economic growth was revised down to 0.5 percent.

Organizations: Housing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s economy slowed in the third quarter, amid muted global demand, deflationary pressures and an ailing property sector. The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.9% year-over-year in the July-September quarter, beating the 4.5% forecast by analysts but slowing from the 6.3% growth in the previous quarter, according to official data released Wednesday. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew by 1.3% in the third quarter, compared to 0.8% growth in the April-to-June quarter. For the first nine months of the year, China's economy grew 5.2% compared to the same period last year, suggesting it is on track with Beijing's target of about 5% growth for 2023. Political Cartoons View All 1211 ImagesStephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said that although the numbers beat expectations China's economy is “not out of the woods by any means.”“This growth suggests a modest improvement in the Chinese economy.

Persons: Stephen Innes, ” Innes Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Management, Analysts Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, China

☆ How to Prepare Every Part of Your Life for a Recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Tanza Loudenback | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +13 min

But a recession brings other threats too, like the potential for major stock market swings that can derail financial goals. As soon as the line begins to tick upward again, the economy exits a recession and enters an expansion. Are we in a recession or is a recession coming? How to preparePreparing your finances for a recession isn’t all that different from practicing good money habits in your daily life. You’ll likely have to make some real-time adjustments to meet short-term goals while enduring a recession, McCoy says.

Persons: Loudenback, it’s, ”, Ross Hamilton, Raymond James, you’ve, Hamilton, aren’t, “ You’ve, Eric Roberge, ” Roberge, Megan McCoy, “, ’ ”, McCoy, You’ll, ” Hamilton, you’re, “ There’s, there’s, ” McCoy, Roberge, ‘ I’ve Organizations: Wall Street, National Bureau of Economic Research, Kansas State University Locations: U.S, Bethesda, Md, Boston, Hamilton

☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

HONG KONG (AP) — Asian markets slipped on Friday following a decline on Wall Street driven by mounting pressure from rising bond market yields. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 2.2% to 17,846.49 and the Shanghai Composite index fell 0.6% to 3,088.10. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6% to 32,315.99. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 4,349.61. The stock market has largely been taking its cues from the bond market recently.

Persons: Australia’s, Taiwan’s Taiex, Wells, Brent Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Japan’s Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Delta Air Lines, Ford Motor Co, United Auto Workers, Detroit, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S . Locations: HONG KONG, China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea, Bangkok, Louisville , Kentucky, Wells Fargo, Gaza

☆ China consumer prices were unexpectedly flat, as economic recovery remains fragile
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An undated editorial photo of Chinese yuan cash bills and the flag of the People's Republic of China. China's consumer prices were flat in September, while factory gate prices saw annual declines slow for a third month — pointing to the uneven post-Covid recovery in the world's second-largest economy that may require further policy support. Consumer price index for September was flat on an annual basis, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday, below than the median estimate for a 0.2% increase in a Reuters poll. China's producer price index fell 2.5% from a year earlier, weaker than expectations for a 2.4% decline, after a 3% drop in August. The drop in factory prices, though, was the smallest in seven months.

Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, CPI Locations: People's Republic of China, China

☆ Seismologists detected blast-like waves near broken Baltic Sea pipeline
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] Estonian Navy conducts an undersea communications cable survey after a subsea gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia under the Baltic Sea was damaged, in the Gulf of Finland, October 10, 2023. Estonian Navy Handout/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCOPENHAGEN, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Nordic and Baltic seismologists said that they had detected blast-like waves on Sunday when a Baltic Sea gas pipeline ruptured but that the data was not strong enough to determine whether explosives were involved. Waves measured after explosions tend to leave different signals to those sent out by earthquakes, the seismologists said. But processing the data had separated the seismic waves from the background noise even though stormy weather in the Gulf of Finland, an arm of the Baltic Sea stretching eastwards into Russian waters, had complicated the analysis, seismologists said. In 2022, the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany were damaged by explosions that authorities have determined were caused by deliberate acts of sabotage.

Persons: Baltic seismologists, Anne Strommen Lycke, NORSAR, seismologists, seismologist Bjorn Lund, Seismologist Jari Kortstrom, Heidi Soosalu, didn't, NORSAR's Lycke, Johannes Birkebaek, Louise Breusch Rasmussen, Ilze, Terje Solsvik Organizations: Estonian Navy, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Finland's National Bureau of Investigation, Sweden's University of Uppsala, University of Helsinki, Thomson Locations: Finland, Estonia, Baltic, Gulf of Finland, Handout, Rights COPENHAGEN, Finland's, Russia, Germany, Nord

☆ China's consumer prices stall, factory deflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - China's consumer prices faltered and factory-gate prices shrank slightly faster than expected in September, with both indicators showing persistent deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy. "The damage from the property sector slowdown on consumer confidence continues to weigh on household demand." Food prices dropped 3.2% from a year earlier, extending a decline by 1.5 percentage points from August and dragging down the CPI. While signs are emerging that China's economy is stabilising, concerns over the sustainability of the recovery persist. China's property sector has yet to emerge from a deep slump despite a raft of policy support measures.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Economists, Zhiwei Zhang, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters Graphics, CPI, IMF, Central Huijin Investment, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING

☆ China still can't beat deflation as its economy continues to flounder
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China remains on the brink of deflation, according to official figures published Friday. AdvertisementAdvertisementChina's battered economy still can't shake off the threat of deflation, official government figures released Friday show, as a key gauge of price rises unexpectedly flattened. The country's consumer price index was unchanged last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Meanwhile, factory-gate costs as measured by the producer price index fell 2.5% in September for their 12th consecutive monthly decline, the data showed. Both price indices fell short of economists' expectations, per Reuters polls conducted before the figures were published.

Persons: —, Hong Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Statistics, CPI, CSI, China Locations: China, Beijing

HELSINKI (AP) — Finnish police said Wednesday they have launched a criminal investigation into possible sabotage of an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia that was shut down over the weekend following a leak. It is bi-directional, transferring natural gas between Finland and Estonia depending on demand and supply. The company said a liquified natural gas terminal in Inkoo has the capacity to deliver the gas Finland needs. Europe saw natural gas prices hit record highs last year after Russia’s cutoff of most gas supplies during the war in Ukraine. Europe currently has filled 97% of its gas storage capacity for the winter, but security of supply depends on deliveries of pipeline gas and LNG.

Persons: NBI, ”, Risto Lohi, Jens Stoltenberg, Sauli Niinistö, Kaja Kallas, ” Stoltenberg, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, “ Organizations: HELSINKI, National Bureau of, NATO, YLE, “, European Union, Estonian Locations: Finland, Estonia, Gulf, Finnish, Inkoo, Estonian, Paldiski, Germany, Russia, Baltic, Brussels, Baltics, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Microsoft, Amazon among the companies shaping AI-enabled hiring policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Rachel Curry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

As businesses implement AI in hiring, they must earn and maintain the trust that these processes are working as they should. In partnership with companies including Amazon, Unilever, Koch Industries and Microsoft, the principles address transparency, fairness, non-discrimination, technical robustness, safety, governance and accountability with the use of AI in hiring. Meanwhile, the protocols specify the criteria for third-party AI vendor certification to promote accountability beyond the employer. He cited the potential implications of a video interview, where AI technology could collect data about a candidate's voice, inflection and eye movements. Ultimately, he says communication and consent for reasonable use are two best practices for AI in hiring that employers shouldn't skip.

Persons: Josh Millet, Google's Bard, Eric Reicin, Reicin, Millet, China's iTutorGroup, they're Organizations: Center for Industry, Amazon, Unilever, Koch Industries, Microsoft, BBB, Healthworks, California Supreme, National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S, Commission, Reuters Locations: New York, California

The Balticconnector gas pipeline was shut early on Sunday on concerns that gas was leaking from a hole in the 77-km (48-mile) pipeline. Finnish operator Gasgrid said it could take months or more to repair. "It is likely that damage to both the gas pipeline and the communication cable is the result of outside activity. The damage to the gas pipeline was believed to have taken place in Finnish waters, while the telecoms cable breach was in Estonian waters, Finnish authorities said. Prices were already up on Tuesday due to fears over tensions in the Middle East but expectations that outside activity caused the pipeline damage pushed prices in the nervous market higher.

Persons: Jens Stoltenberg, Gasgrid, Sauli Niinisto, Petteri Orpo, Orpo, Elisa, Timo Kilpelainen, Terje Solsvik, Anne Kauranen, Anna Ringstrom, Andrius, Marta Frackowiak, Louise Rasmussen, Susanna Twidale, Julia Payne, Bart Meijer, Gwladys Fouche, Susan Fenton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Finnish Border Guard, Companies Gas, PM, NATO, Reuters, Finnish, Amber Grid, Thomson Locations: of Finland, Estonian, Finland, Estonia, HELSINKI, Baltic, Finnish, Inkoo, Paldiski, St Petersburg, NORD, Russia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Lithuanian, Ukraine, United States, Latvian, Hamina, Oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm, Andrius Sytas, Vilnius, Gdansk, Copenhagen, London, Brussels

☆ China to hold nationwide survey on population changes in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] A little girl sits with her dad in a park in Shanghai, China, April 2, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 10 (Reuters) - China's National Bureau of Statistics will conduct a nationwide sample survey in November to help better plan population policies, in an unexpected poll as authorities struggle to boost the country's flagging birth rate. The survey's scope on population changes will focus on urban and rural areas throughout the country, according to state media reports on Tuesday. The plan will help to "accurately and timely monitor China's population developmental changes and provide a basis for the Communist Party and the government to formulate national economic, social development and population related policies," the bureau said. China last conducted its once-in-a-decade census in November 2020 which showed it grew at the slowest pace since the first modern population survey in the 1950s.

Persons: Aly, Farah Master, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, Authorities, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, Beijing, China's

London CNN —Claudia Goldin, a professor at Harvard University, was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics Monday for her research into women’s income and employment. Jakob Svensson, chair of the committee for the prize in economic sciences, added: “Understanding women’s role in the labor market is important for society. Thanks to Claudia Goldin’s groundbreaking research we now know much more about the underlying factors and which barriers may need to be addressed in the future.”Claudia Goldin Harvard UniversityGoldin was born in 1946 in New York. She is the author of several books and is best-known for her work on the history of women in the US economy. The economics prize is officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

Persons: London CNN — Claudia Goldin, Goldin, ”, Jakob Svensson, Claudia Goldin’s, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University Goldin, Henry Lee, Alfred Nobel, Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig Organizations: London CNN, Harvard University, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Federal Locations: New York, United States, Swedish

☆ China to Hold Nationwide Survey on Population Changes in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China's National Bureau of Statistics will conduct a nationwide sample survey in November to help better plan population policies, in an unexpected poll as authorities struggle to boost the country's flagging birth rate. Concerned about China's first population drop in six decades and its rapid ageing, Beijing is urgently trying an array of measures to lift the country's birth rate including financial incentives and boosting childcare facilities. The survey's scope on population changes will focus on urban and rural areas throughout the country, according to state media reports on Tuesday. The plan will help to "accurately and timely monitor China's population developmental changes and provide a basis for the Communist Party and the government to formulate national economic, social development and population related policies," the bureau said. China last conducted its once-in-a-decade census in November 2020 which showed it grew at the slowest pace since the first modern population survey in the 1950s.

Persons: Farah Master, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, China, China's

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ The US economy is extremely fragile right now and could tip into a recession within months, according to a new model
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.

Persons: —, Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich

☆ Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as China's factory activity expands for the first time in six months
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's factory activity in September expanded for the first time April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Saturday. China's PMI climbed to 50.2 in September from 49.7 in the previous month, beating Reuters' expectations of 50.0. China's non-manufacturing PMI also inched up to 51.7 from a previous reading of 51. Similarly, a private-sector survey reflected an expansion in China's factory activity, albeit at a slowed pace. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.6 in September from 51.0., the survey showed on Sunday, missing forecasts of 51.2.

Persons: — Lee Ying Shan Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Reuters, P Global Locations: China

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