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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Meera Pandit explains why she prefers international stocks over the U.S.Meera Pandit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss recession risks and rate cuts impact on the economy and markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailModerately higher persistent inflation is good for investors, says JPMorgan's Karen WardKaren Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview key inflation data this week, and the potential impact on markets.
Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's threshold for rate cuts still looks 'incredibly high,' JPMorgan saysTai Hui of JPMorgan Asset Management says a mild U.S. recession may not be sufficient for the U.S. Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.
Here are 10 ways to protect against losses and volatility in this long-lasting bear market. "It went beyond dodging a bullet," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said of first quarter earnings results in a late April interview with Insider. Weaker earnings raise valuation concernsBut some investors aren't impressed by Q1 earnings — at least not enough to get bullish. Besides weaker earnings growth and lofty valuations, another risk for stocks is that upcoming quarterly results will miss higher expectations in a shaky economy. "We're still looking at fairly high-single-digit earnings growth for the next couple of quarters overall," Sosnick said.
But persistent inflation and last year’s sharp stock market decline have shaken the confidence of American workers and retirees about their retirement prospects in a way not seen since 2008. That is the key finding of the 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey - the longest-running survey of its kind measuring worker and retiree confidence. But inflation affects everyone, and it is a constant risk factor in retirement plans - even when it is not making headlines. For starters, most retirees depend on Social Security for a substantial portion of retirement income - and it comes with built-in inflation protection. This year, the COLA was a whopping 8.7%, the largest inflation adjustment in four decades.
The advance estimate for GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy is slowing. US GDP grew at annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. That's below the forecast of 2.0% and way below the 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2022. That's based on the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP). In short, the economy remains on the edge of a swamp – not in recession yet but close to one."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe impact of higher rates will be felt in the quarters ahead, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the market, this week's GDP report and earnings results, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe could potentially be headed for a stagflation scenario, warns JPMorgan's Oksana AronovOksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the potential for a stagflation scenario and what investors can do now to prepare.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A debt ceiling fight is looming in the U.S. yet again, giving investors another worry for markets this year. Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE U.S. HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Some Treasury bills (T-bills) are featuring a premium in their yields that may be tied to an elevated default risk, according to some analysts.
JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said Wednesday on Bloomberg that smaller banks now face an increased risk of credit losses because of their heightened exposure to the commercial real estate debt. And Goldman Sachs' global head of real estate client solutions, Jeffery Fine, recently said the commercial real estate market is in the middle of a "perfect storm" of higher rates, tight credit, and fast-maturing debt. The Goldman strategist said securing commercial real estate loans now is "almost impossible" since financing has just about shut down. What's your outlook for the commercial real estate sector in the next 6 months? This real estate investor commands a 311-unit portfolio.
China keeps lending benchmarks unchanged amid signs of recovery
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, April 20 (Reuters) - China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the eighth straight month on Thursday in line with expectations, as the economic recovery reduced the need for any immediate monetary support. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. The medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate now serves as a guide to the LPR. Markets mostly use the medium-term policy rate as a indication of likely changes to the lending benchmarks. "There might be cuts to deposit rate and 5-year LPR, so as to lower funding costs and support long-term business loans."
REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Britain now has western Europe's highest rate of consumer price inflation after it fell by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, official data showed on Wednesday. Despite falling in March, Britain's inflation rate was the highest in western Europe and the only country in the region to post a double-digit number for last month, after Austria recorded a higher inflation rate in February. Last month the BoE said it expected inflation to "fall significantly" in the second quarter. In February, the BoE had forecast March inflation of 9.2%. Inflation in prices charged by manufacturers fell sharply in March to its lowest since October 2021 at 8.7%, down from 11.9% in February, largely reflecting a drop in oil prices.
City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesU.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills. The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.
Regional banks' troubles aren't over and remain "an area of concern", JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said. They are facing increased risks of credit losses in the commercial-property sector, which may come under stress, he said. And so we think that in the coming year or two, there's going to be growing distress in this space, and that will also potentially amount to credit losses for those US regional banks," he added. Many experts have warned the US commercial real-estate sector could face problems as high borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions following the recent banking turmoil complicate matters for big property owners as they seek to refinance loans. Nearly $450 billion in commercial real-estate debt is due to mature in 2023 - meaning a final payment on those loans are due, per data cited from Trepp by JPMorgan.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed is now dependent on growth data, not just inflation data, strategist saysHugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, explains why that's important for multi-asset investors.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Oksana Aronov advises investors to 'preserve optionality'Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss headwinds to a Fed policy pivot and inflation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTech's concentration risk and valuations are worrisome: J.P. Morgan's PanditMeera Pandit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Pandit's thoughts on the tech sector, if she's looking to stay defensive and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report should show increased growth and lower unemployment, says Citi economist Veronica ClarkGabriela Santos, J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market strategist, and Veronica Clark, Citi economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economic metrics Clark is monitoring, how to measure the impact from recent economic woes and more.
Instead, they've been propelled by large caps and growth stocks, specifically tech. If not for a small number of mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 wouldn't be staying afloat. Last year investors learned the hard way that narrow markets are dangerous, as tech stocks tumbled during the market selloff. "Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages," Wilson wrote in a late March note. Outside of tech, Lebovitz highlighted traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.
JPMorgan Asset Management CIO says markets are headed for a "feel good period" before an economic slowdown. Investors should not lean into the fleeting rally next quarter amid a looming recession, JPMorgan's Bob Michele says. "If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not." "Having been an investor through the financial crisis, and [having looked at] that seminal moment when Bear Stearns and JPMorgan combined...The next quarter was great for markets. "If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not.
Watch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David Kelly
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmployee bargaining power is limited with wage growth below inflation, says JPM's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.
It's part of an effort to address the country's labor shortage, Canada's immigration minister said. The US could solve its labor shortage too, experts told Insider, but Biden would have to be bolder. President Joe Biden's current course of action could mean that the labor shortage in the US is never really solved. Biden is replacing Trump-like anti-immigration policies with his ownThat's a major reason why the persisting labor shortage will likely never resolve. It's in direct opposition to the kind of policy changes that Peri said the US needs to make to address the labor shortage.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe banking crisis has heightened the potential slowdown in credit growth: JPMorgan's Meera PanditSylvia Jablonski, CEO and chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs, and Meera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their thoughts on the rate hike trajectory, tightened lending standards, and more.
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