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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Larry Adam, Kim Forrest, and Mark ZandiLarry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners chief investment officer, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the economy, opportunities in the markets, and more.
Persons: Larry Adam, Kim Forrest, Mark Zandi Larry Adam, Raymond James, Mark Zandi Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, , Joe Biden, , Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, , Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, , Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington
While new builds are still sold for slightly more than existing homes, the price gap has significantly narrowed. Over the last six months, the median price for a new home is only about 4% higher than the median price of an existing house. Reducing the square footage of your home can help reduce construction costs as well as utility and maintenance costs down the line. Keep construction costs down: Major factors like lumber and labor costs significantly impact the cost of a new house. And depending on the kinds of materials you add to the house, builders are "adding up the tab," Veronica Fuentes, a wealth management advisor based in Washington, D.C., previously told CNBC.
Persons: Alistair Berg, Digitalvision, Nicole Bachaud, Dietz, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, homebuilders, Veronica Fuentes Organizations: Getty, Zillow Group, CNBC, U.S . Census, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban, Moody's, Washington , D.C Locations: U.S, Washington ,
Right now, securitized products in general look relatively cheap, said John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. To meet this need, Janus launched its Securitized Income ETF (JSI) in November, which invests across the securitized space. JSI YTD mountain Janus Henderson Securitized Income ETF Collateralized loan obligations Another fund Kerschner manages is the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF . One way investors can get broad exposure to CMBS via BlackRock's iShares CMBS ETF . CMBS YTD mountain iShares CMBS ETF year to date However, Janus' Kerschner pointed out that all office work isn't going away.
Persons: Nick Travaglino, Nuveen, Travaglino, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Janus, Kerschner, Rick Rieder, I've, Rieder, CLOs, it's, isn't, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Kershner, We're Organizations: Investors, Fund, Janus Henderson Investors, SEC, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, Bank of America, AAA CLOs, BlackRock AAA CLO Locations: CLOs, BlackRock, Moody's, CMBS, multifamily
Fears of a potential banking crisis are on the rise as interest rates stay elevated. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2001 as the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. Markets have already seen 1 regional bank fail this year, according to FDIC data. According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the longer interest rates stay high, the more the Fed risks damaging the economy. "That's the kind of thing I'm worried about in the context of persistently high interest rates."
Persons: , Mark Zandi, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Daniel Pinto Organizations: Fed, Service, Analytics, Yahoo Finance, Bank, Regulators, First Bank, Fulton Bank, Stanhope Capital, Bloomberg Locations: Philadelphia, America
Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.
Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S
Simonskafar | E+ | Getty ImagesIncentives are coming back to the auto market, but high interest rates are weakening those deals for car shoppers. In today's market, consumers are more likely to see it as "free money," she said, especially as auto loan rates stay high. watch nowWhen you roll that into your new car loan, it increases your payment. Search for available incentives: Car shoppers will have to a do lot more shopping and research to find available incentives, Caldwell said. Know your credit score: While shoppers might come across 0% financing offers, those deals are often reserved for buyers with excellent credit.
Persons: Jessica Caldwell, Trump, Brian Moody, Kelley, Edmunds, Caldwell, That's, that's, Moody Organizations: Getty, Finance, Biden Locations: Edmunds
Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Cool Slightly
  + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +9 min
Housing Inflation Remains Stubbornly High Economists had expected two measures of rental inflation to fade in 2023 and 2024, but that process is taking time to play out. There are two main measures of inflation in America, the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Consumer Price Index Inflation Remains Hotter The Consumer Price Index is climbing faster than the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, in large part because it weights housing more heavily. With housing, Consumer Price Index inflation totaled 3.5 percent in March. But the convergence between new and existing rent inflation is taking a lot longer than expected.
Persons: There’s, “ It’s, , Mark Zandi, Biden, Zandi, grousing, , O.E.R, We’re, would’ve, Mark Franceski, I’ve, Ernie Tedeschi, Tedeschi Organizations: New York Times, Federal Reserve, Index, Housing, Zelman, Associates, White House Council, Economic Advisers Locations: America, bam, Europe
There’s a three-letter abbreviation that economists have started pronouncing with the energy of a four-letter word: “O.E.R.”It stands for owner’s equivalent rent, and it has been used to measure American housing inflation since the 1980s. As its name suggests, it uses a combination of surveys and market data to estimate how much it would cost homeowners to rent the house they live in. But three years into America’s price pop, it has become almost cliché for economists to hate on the housing measure. The most intense haters insist that it is giving a false impression about where inflation stands. “It’s just not adding anything to our understanding of inflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and a frequent adviser to the Biden administration.
Persons: There’s, “ It’s, , Mark Zandi, Biden, Zandi, grousing, Organizations: New York Times
That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.
Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, , Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, , Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, , Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, , Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States
The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your StateAs climate change makes disasters more frequent and severe, the insurance industry is in tumult. Even in the Northeast, where homeowners insurance was still generally profitable last year, trends are worsening. In the state of Profitability of homeowners insurance in Iowa Source: AM Best Ratio of revenue to costs for homeowners insurance statewide. To measure the financial health of the homeowners insurance industry, The New York Times assembled data that compares revenues with costs for insurers in each state. The data show that homeowners insurance was unprofitable in 18 states last year, up from eight in 2013.
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One investor says growth stocks still offer opportunities — but it's time to get selective. "Growth stocks will continue to outperform value stocks, generally speaking. Growth stocks are expected to grow rapidly, but do not pay out dividends and are often often more expensive than so-called value stocks. When considering which stocks to buy, Coons stressed the importance of valuations. "I would stay away from growth stocks outperforming because of story and invest in those with real revenue and earnings growth."
Persons: Adam Coons, Coons, PayPal Holdings Coons, " Coons, Moody's Organizations: Winthrop Capital Management, CNBC Pro, PayPal Holdings, PayPal, C Technologies, SS Locations: Coons
The Fed risks "breaking" something in the economy if it delays rate cuts, according to Moody's Mark Zandi. Higher interest rates raise the odds of recession or bank failures, the economist warned. "If I were king for the day, I would really be cutting rates at this point," Zandi told Yahoo Finance. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Zandi warned of the consequences that could arise if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates over the next few months. Keeping rates at their current level raises the risk of recession, and could expose other cracks in the financial system, Zandi warned.
Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi, Zandi, , Mark Zandi Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Moody's, Business
9 Home Designs That Evoke the Flow of Water
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Yelena Moroz Alpert | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
This article is part of our Design special section about water as a source of creativity. Water is a popular motif with product designers because it symbolizes tranquillity and clarity. But this force of nature also “adds movement, freedom and flow in a space,” said Golnar Roshan, who with her partner, Ruben de la Rive Box, recently introduced a rug collection called Fluid that evokes the moody skies reflected in the canals of Amsterdam, where they live. “I like to mix worlds that seem far apart, create unexpected connections and imaginative short circuits between things,” Paola Navone, a designer in Milan, said of her collection of new pendant lights with diffusers of milky white or limpid blue glass that visually create an oceanic sway. (The lamps are called Oblò, which is Italian for “porthole.”)These and other fresh, splashy products are presented here.
Persons: , Golnar Roshan, Ruben de, ” Paola Navone Locations: Amsterdam, Milan
The Major Supreme Court Cases of 2024No Supreme Court term in recent memory has featured so many cases with the potential to transform American society. In 2015, the Supreme Court limited the sweep of the statute at issue in the case, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. In 2023, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked efforts to severely curb access to the pill, mifepristone, as an appeal moved forward. A series of Supreme Court decisions say that making race the predominant factor in drawing voting districts violates the Constitution. The difference matters because the Supreme Court has said that only racial gerrymandering may be challenged in federal court under the Constitution.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Anderson, Sotomayor Jackson Kagan, Roberts Kavanaugh Barrett Gorsuch Alito Thomas, Salmon, , , Mr, Nixon, Richard M, privilege.But, Fitzgerald, Vance, John G, Roberts, Fischer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Clarence Thomas, Samuel A, Alito Jr, Alito, , Moyle, Wade, Roe, Johnson, Robinson, Moody, Paxton, Robins, Media Murthy, Sullivan, Murthy, Biden, Harrington, Sackler, Alexander, Jan, Raimondo, ” Paul D, Clement, Dodd, Frank, Homer, Cargill Organizations: Harvard, Stanford, University of Texas, Trump, Liberal, Sotomayor Jackson Kagan Conservative, Colorado, Former, Trump v . United, United, Sarbanes, Oxley, U.S, Capitol, Drug Administration, Alliance, Hippocratic, Jackson, Health, Supreme, Labor, New York, Homeless, Miami Herald, Media, Biden, National Rifle Association, Rifle Association of America, New York State, Purdue Pharma, . South Carolina State Conference of, Federal, Loper Bright Enterprises, . Department of Commerce, Chevron, Natural Resources Defense, , SCOTUSPoll, Consumer Financial, Community Financial Services Association of America, Securities, Exchange Commission, Exchange, Occupational Safety, Commission, Lucia v . Securities, Federal Trade Commission, Internal Revenue Service, Environmental Protection Agency, Social Security Administration, National Labor Relations Board, Air Pollution Ohio, Environmental, Guns Garland, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives, National Firearms, Gun Control Locations: Colorado, Trump v . United States, United States, Nixon, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Dobbs v, Idaho, Roe, Texas, States, New, New York, Grants, Oregon, . California, Martin v, Boise, Boise , Idaho, Missouri, Parkland, Fla, Murthy v . Missouri, . Missouri, ., South Carolina, Alabama, SCOTUSPoll, Lucia v, Western
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's only so long the economy can operate at these higher rates: John Hancock's Emily RolandEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why she believes the markets are acting like 'a moody teenager', where investors can find opportunities right now, and more.
Persons: John Hancock's Emily Roland Emily Roland, John Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management
Rich baby boomers jumped in with all-cash offers, and sellers scored huge windfalls as weary buyers pushed prices to new heights. After all, people have to move for a wide variety of life reasons; mortgage rates be damned. "The further and further we get from the peak of the market," Peterson told me, "the harder it is to deny what's happened." Mortgage rates haven't fallen — in fact, they've gone up about 0.6 percentage points since the start of the year. "It can always be tricky telling somebody that they were just lucky because it makes you sound envious," Peterson told me.
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Read previewThe economy is bound to enter a downturn if the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates, according to Marija Veitmane, the head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. The Wall Street vet warned of an impending economic crash if the Fed doesn't ease monetary policy soon. Higher interest rates are already taking a toll on economic strength, she noted, even if growth numbers looked fine last quarter. But the economy is already showing signs of strain from the burden of elevated interest rates, Veitmane warned. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates level at its next policy meeting.
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HTRB saw a total return last year of 7.15%, and ranked in the 23rd percentile among its peers, according to Morningstar. The portfolio has 51% of its assets in mortgage-backed securities and 25% in investment-grade credit, according to the fund's website. Compared to many of its peers in the intermediate core plus bond Morningstar category, Hartford Total Return Bond ETF leans a bit more on securitized markets instead of investment-grade corporate debt, according to Morningstar. Finding opportunities Right now, one of the areas Goodman sees value in is agency mortgage-backed securities. Goodman also likes structured finance right now, like collateralized loan obligations, commercial mortgage-backed securities and nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities.
Persons: Campe Goodman, Morningstar, Goodman, HTRB, Morningstar . Goodman, Mike Mulach, Bonds, Fitch Organizations: Hartford, SEC, Wellington, Bloomberg U.S, Morningstar, BB, Poor's, Federal Reserve Locations: Wellington, Eastern Europe
We’re paying for close to 100% of NATO.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. They don’t pay their bills.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. (It rose to about $314 billion in 2020, Trump’s last full year in office.) Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. Facts First: Trump’s claim that “nobody died other than Ashli” is false.
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Within the walls of the White House, it was seen the same way, stoking relief among officials, who said the data hewed near the team’s own targets for ideal job creation. In the wake of the latest jobs report, many market participants are now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, potentially easing a source of consternation for voters. Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s cited frequently by the White House, said certain psychological thresholds will remain important as the election approaches. In the meantime, White House officials continue to watch the data carefully and refrain from declaring victory until it bears out the trajectory the Biden administration wants to see. “The best measure of inflation is inflation,” the official told CNN.
Persons: Joe Biden, Ron Klain, , Mark Zandi, Moody’s, ” Zandi, Biden “, ” Biden, Mandel Ngan, – Biden, Biden Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, White, Biden, Democratic, Reserve, Wilmington Convention, Getty Locations: Wilmington, Wilmington , North Carolina, AFP
New York CNN —Few companies have lost more than the $32 billion that Boeing has lost in the last five years. There’s a lot of work in front of us, but I’m proud of our team and remain fully confident in our future.”It’s not that Boeing’s problems aren’t serious. And the massive losses have resulted in the company’s debt level soaring, from $13 billion at the end of 2018 to $48 billion now. Even if customers could get their hands on Airbus jets right away, there are huge costs for Boeing customers to operate both their existing Boeing jets and a fleet of comparable Airbus planes at the same time. So after Alaska Air purchased Virgin America in 2016, it got rid of the Airbus jets Virgin was flying and became an all-Boeing airline.
Persons: , , Richard Aboulafia, Ron Epstein, Dave Calhoun, ” It’s, Max, Uber, Brian West, “ We’re, Ben Minicucci, Calhoun, Epstein Organizations: New, New York CNN, Boeing, Bank of America, Alaska, Alaska Airlines Boeing, Max, Carnival Corp, Airbus, Airline, Alaska Air, Virgin America, Virgin, year’s, GM Locations: New York, it’s
Boeing taps debt market to raise $10 billion: Reuters
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The Boeing logo is displayed on a Boeing building on January 8, 2024 in El Segundo, California. Boeing on Monday tapped debt markets to raise $10 billion, after the U.S. planemaker burned $3.93 billion in free cash during the first quarter following slowing production of its best-selling jet, sources familiar with the matter said. Moody's said the rating reflects Boeing's still-strong business profile, which continues to mitigate ongoing weak performance in commercial aircraft, although headwinds surrounding the division could persist through 2026. Boeing will use the bond proceeds to increase its liquidity ahead of maturities on its existing debt load, including $4.3 billion in 2025, S&P wrote on Monday. The deal's bookrunners leading the bond sale include Bank of America , Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo , according to the deal's term sheet.
Persons: Moody's, bookrunners, Wells, Brian West Organizations: Boeing, U.S, Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan Locations: El Segundo , California, maturities, Wells Fargo
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