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The spike in Treasury yields is holding sway over other markets, Mohamed El-Erian said Wednesday. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields hit multi-year highs this week. So depending on what yields do, everything else follows and what we need desperately is a stabilization of yields. This week, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4% for the first time since 2010, and the 2-year Treasury yield climbed past 4.35% for the first time since 2007. There's technical damage taking shape in the markets, and El-Erian said he's been hearing complaints about liquidity.
The drop in the pound and the loss of confidence in policy makers is part of a larger paradigm shift, Mohamed El-Erian said. It points to the paradigm shift we're going through and the fragility of markets," he added. El-Erian has previously warned markets of the paradigm shift, pointing to central banks' pivot from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening as inflation continues to climb. To combat the potential for higher inflation, the UK will have to hike interest rates to keep inflation under control. But that could also cause enormous financial pain to households, causing unemployment and floating mortgage rates to skyrocket.
Watch CNBC’s full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed, global and U.S. markets.
Yields are in the driver's seat, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields are in the driver's seat, says Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed, global and US markets.
The price of benchmark 10-year UK government bonds also increased slightly. “This is a situation where government borrowing costs — and therefore all our borrowing costs — are incredibly vulnerable,” economist Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz, told the BBC on Tuesday. It will drive up import costs, adding to pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates faster and higher. Previously, markets were absorbing about £100 billion ($108 billion) in UK bonds annually, according to Ross Walker, chief UK economist at NatWest Markets. Yet higher borrowing costs will have consequences for both the government and households.
"It also puts more pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates," she added. read moreScottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for the Westminster parliament to be recalled to hold an emergency session. "It's hard to overstate the scale of the economic crisis caused by Friday's UK budget," she said on Twitter. read moreEYES ON BOEIn light of the rout, strategists and economists said the Bank of England needs to do something to calm markets and restore credibility. "The market is now treating the UK as if it's an emerging market.
read moreOn Friday, he announced that he would cut a raft of taxes, but he did not detail how the government would fund it. , read moreIn light of the rout, strategists and economists said the Bank of England needs to do something to calm markets and restore credibility. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was roughly flat on the day, while the domestically focussed FTSE 250 (.FTMC) fell 1%. '1980S ON STEROIDS'Paul Dales, Capital Economics chief UK economist, said the central bank needed to take action. "The market is now treating the UK as if it's an emerging market.
Investors are paying the paying the price for the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes, according to Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian. "This is a two-part policy mistake of historical proportions," the former CEO of bond giant Pimco told CNBC's " Squawk Box " in a Monday interview. And now in the scramble to catch up, they are hiking aggressively into a strong economy, which will be phase two of the policy mistake." El-Erian spoke less than a week after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase. "So we are going to have to navigate through this historical Fed policy mistake."
I don't hope for markets to go down, says Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't hope for markets to go down, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss his take on the global economy and what direction world equity markets are going.
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - British government bond prices collapsed on Monday, pushing yields to their highest in over a decade, amid speculation that the Bank of England might need to take emergency action after sterling hit a record low against the U.S. dollar overnight. Two-year gilt yields rose as much as 54 basis points on the day to 4.533%, their highest since September 2008, and at 0754 GMT were 44 basis points up on the day at 4.43%. Five-year gilt yields jumped more than 44 basis points to 4.503%, their highest since October 2008, while benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest since April 2010 at 4.215%. read moreBond market veteran Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor to Allianz, said Kwarteng either needed to reverse course, or to prepare for an emergency BoE rate hike. The BoE raised interest rates by half a percentage point to 2.25% on Thursday - its second consecutive half-point hike, after not increasing rates by that amount since 1995.
The U.S. dollar's strength is setting the stage for a crisis, as well as a looming bottom in the stock market, according to Morgan Stanley. Fears are rising that the moves in the dollar will pressure corporate earnings, and "such US dollar strength has historically led to some kind of financial/economic crisis," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson and others said in a client note. "What's amazing is that this dollar strength is happening even as other major central banks are also tightening monetary policy at a historically hawkish pace," Wilson wrote. "The recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both," Wilson wrote. "In our view, such an outcome is exactly how something does break, which leads to MAJOR top for the US dollar and maybe rates, too," Wilson wrote.
Consequently, the Bank of England will come under pressure to jack up interest rates further and faster. It has been sharply critical of the UK government’s proposals. Why a plunging pound is bad newsThe pound hit a record low against the dollar on Monday, dropping near $1.03 before recovering to almost $1.07. Investors expect the Bank of England will need to increase interest rates much more aggressively to get inflation in check. The central bank has given no indication it will hike interest rates outside its normal schedule of meetings.
Consequently, the Bank of England will come under pressure to jack up interest rates further and faster. It has been sharply critical of the UK government’s proposals. Investors expect the Bank of England will need to increase interest rates much more aggressively to get inflation in check. The central bank has given no indication it will hike interest rates outside its normal schedule of meetings. “If markets still don’t have faith in the fiscal picture, I’m not sure how the Bank of England wins this,” Rossiter said.
Wads of British Pound Sterling banknotes are stacked in piles at the Money Service Austria company's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 16, 2017. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Britain's pound plunged to record lows on Monday and bonds were slammed for a second day, as investors punished UK assets after the government's mini-budget announcement last week. The presentation of the mini-budget was received quite badly by the markets – sterling literally collapsed. The significant tax cuts announced by the Treasury Secretary cause concerns for the currency markets because of rising government debt." One is the loss of confidence in UK fiscal policy and that won't help sterling.
Markets need to brace for "unsettling volatility," Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Friday. The top economist predicted the S&P 500 could retest June lows due to signs of dysfunction in US Treasuries and money markets. But you just can't avoid the macro factor right now," he said in an interview on CNBC on Friday, predicting that the S&P 500 was set to retest lows near 3,600. The S&P 500 already made a start downwards since the Fed delivered another 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, when stocks notched their steepest one-day decline since the pandemic. "They can create very unsettling volatility, not just volatility," he said, noting that turmoil in Treasurys is structural and has largely been exposed to the Fed's quantitative easing, which doubled its balance sheet to $8.9 trillion.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should avoid individual names for now, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down how investors should navigate the latest market volatility.
Central bank tightening — under the umbrella of monetary policy — is only one side of the equation when it comes to managing inflation. The other is fiscal policy, which is controlled by lawmakers in Congress. Coordinated fiscal- and monetary policy can have a compounding effect in stamping out inflation. But given that U.S. fiscal policy is not acting in concert with monetary policy, the Fed's efforts to bring down inflation have become all the more complicated. In the years since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, expansionary fiscal policy — and monetary policy for that matter — has not posed much of a problem due to overall low inflation.
The Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate hike was just the beginning of the world's fight against inflation. A smattering of other central banks have followed suit, while some others took a different course. For now, pain fueled by central banks is likely to continue. The Fed's 75 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday was the first of many such moves this week as the policymakers globally confront surging prices. Three investing experts explained how to adjust your portfolio to benefit from the Fed's rate hike and rising inflation.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, marking its third straight rate hike. It signaled more hikes ahead to tame inflation, but the move risks tipping the economy into recession. El-Erian said higher, faster hikes and elevated recession risks could have been avoided. His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday hiked interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row to tame rising prices. Higher interest rates discourage borrowing, thus cooling demand throughout the economy, but the move risks slowing growth so much the economy could slide into a recession.
The Federal Reserve's rate hike Wednesday was followed by rate hikes at other central banks. Other central banks including Switzerland and Norway followed suit with their own rate hikes as inflation burns hot throughout the global economy. The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50 basis points as inflation sits at 9.8%. US weekly jobless claims released Thursday rose slightly, by 5,000 to 213,000, but the labor market remains strong. Here's what else is happening today:"Bond King" Jeff Gundlach said the Fed's commitment to big rate hikes means a 75% chance of a US recession in 2023.
The UK risks stagflation unless it can push past these hurdles to its economic growth, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. Hurdles included the European energy crisis and the government's flawed response to encouraging growth so far. The global economy is also slowing down, which means the UK's domestic growth will be hard-pressed. But it could spell trouble for the UK's economy growth, as the government will likely need to borrow more to keep providing aid. While measures have been taken to address the soaring cost of fossil fuels, the climate change agenda has taken a backseat, which could hinder economic growth in the future.
As market volatility persists, join CNBC's Karen Tso in conversation with Neil Veitch, investment director at SVM Asset Management, as he shares his views on what's next for markets, his top stock picks and which countries look attractive right now. With holdings spanning Big Tech, semiconductors, energy, autos and more, we'll ask Neil for his highest conviction calls, as well as which stocks he thinks investors should avoid. Here's what top tech investor Paul Meeks says Related coverage from Pro: Looking for a short-term trade? With holdings spanning Big Tech, semiconductors, energy, autos and more, we'll ask Neil for his highest conviction calls, as well as which stocks he thinks investors should avoid. You can watch the Pro Talk here on Thursday, 22nd September at 12:30 p.m. BST / 7:30 p.m.
Mohamed El-Erian warned of slower global growth, stubborn inflation, and higher unemployment. The top economist pointed to signs of weaker demand and the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. "Stagflation" describes a toxic combination of stagnant economic growth, elevated inflation, and rising joblessness. In El-Erian's view, the Fed's aggressive interest-rate hikes risk choking growth and driving up unemployment, while failing to temper price increases. Earlier in September, El-Erian warned that global growth has become more fragile thanks to Europe's energy crisis, China's continued lockdowns, and the US's high inflation and waning demand.
Situație extrem de îngrijorătoare în fotbalul englez. Au fost descoperite 16 cazuri noi de coronavirus la jucătorii și membrii staff-urilor tehnice ai cluburilor din Premier League. Analizele au fost efectuate între 9 și 15 noiembrie. Este cazul egiptenilor Mo Salah și Mohamed Elneny, a irlandezului Mat Doherty, dar și a brazilianului Alex Telles.În Anglia, oficialii din Premier League efectuează săptămânal teste în rândul tuturor jucătorilor și membrilor staff-urilor tehnice, rezultatele venind în termen de 24 de ore.Probleme din aceeași cauză și la cluburile spaniole din Primera Division. Atacantul lui Atletico Madrid, Luis Suarez a fost testat pozitiv în cantonamentul naţionalei din Uruguay, înaintea meciului cu Brazilia, din preliminariile Cupei Mondiale din 2022.El va rata astfel şi meciul cu FC Barcelona, din weekend, club la care a evoluat în perioada 2014-2020.
Persons: Mo Salah, Mohamed Elneny, Mat Doherty, Alex Telles.În, Luis Suarez Organizations: Premier League, naționale.Premier League, Atletico Madrid, Cupei Mondiale, FC Barcelona Locations: englez, Alex Telles.În Anglia, Division, Uruguay, Brazilia
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