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☆ Morgan Stanley warns US profits could drop like in 2008, tanking stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —One of Wall Street’s top executives is worried about a repeat of 2008. But Wilson is warning clients about a looming plunge in corporate profits next year as the economy stumbles. “The earnings recession by itself could be similar to what transpired in 2008/2009,” the Morgan Stanley exec wrote in a report on Monday. “We often hear from clients that everyone knows earnings are too high next year, and therefore, the market has priced it,” he wrote. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told CNN late last week that investors may be overreacting to signs of more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

☆ The collapse of FTX has left many crypto investors without access to their cash. Meet one student who got $14,000 stuck on Sam Bankman-Fried's exchange.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In light of the hubbub surrounding FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, this morning I'm thinking about a quote by novelist G. Michael Hopf:"Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times." And that's the sense I got from speaking to one 26-year-old investor who lost a sizable chunk of his portfolio in FTX. I just caught up with FTX user Daniil Pemberton, who lost access to roughly $14,000 in funds when the crypto exchange imploded last month. Now, FTX users like Pemberton have been left with a hole in their pockets and faltering faith in the digital asset sector. Do you have a story to share about losing access to funds in FTX, or on how you're changing your investment strategy?

☆ The worst earnings recession since 2008 could hit stocks next year, Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could be hit next year by the worst earnings recession since 2008, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. "We're looking for an earnings recession that could be as big of a surprise to the market as it was in '08." An earnings recession is likely not priced into the market yet, Wilson said, warning investors of more downside to come. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyThe worst earnings recession since 2008 could hit stocks next year, according to Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson. "We're looking for an earnings recession that could be as big of a surprise to the market as it was in '08," Wilson said.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the market Monday: Stocks, Elon Musk, Amazon
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Club holding Amazon (AMZN) price target cut to $150 per share from $170 at Evercore ISI. Piper has an odd number cut on Exxon (XOM), not a Club stock, even though very positive. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Beware these stocks: Analysts see a rough year ahead for these companies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Pro looked at stocks that are poised to lose the most in 2023 based on the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Asset manager Franklin Resources has the most downside next year, set to lose 12%, according to the average analyst price target on FactSet. Also making the list is food giant General Mills , which has nearly 8% downside to the average analyst price target. The stock has nearly 7% downside to the average analyst price target, per FactSet. Lastly, Etsy has nearly 4% downside to the average analyst price target.

☆ Monday, Dec. 19, 2022: Cramer buys more of this struggling tech stock
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Joshua Natoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMonday, Dec. 19, 2022: Cramer buys more of this struggling tech stockJim Cramer and Jeff Marks explain why the market is struggling early Monday morning, after a bearish report from Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson. Jim says despite this, he's bought more shares of several stocks in the portfolio. He says one, in particular, is still a good buy for new Investing Club members, despite the stock surging since initiating the position last week.

☆ Risks of a recession in 2023 are growing as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy. 4 Wall Street banks share how far stocks will fall if that happens — and when the market will bottom.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Consumer Price Index was 7.1% in November, and the Fed brought the fed funds rate ceiling up to 4.5% this week. Below we've compiled what four major Wall Street banks believe stocks will do if a recession plays out. UBSUBS economists are predicting a recession starting in Q2 2023, and the bank's Chief US Equity Strategist Keith Parker therefore sees a hit to earnings ahead. Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs economists, meanwhile, see a soft landing as the most likely scenario for the US economy in 2023. Goldman SachsBank of AmericaBank of America's economists see a recession in the first half of 2023.

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried's story keeps getting wilder and weirder as details emerge from his past and more people speak out.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The more details that emerge, the more I feel like this is going to make a great Michael Lewis book (and movie) one day. Among the highlights from his testimony include his assertion that the crypto market is "the largest Ponzi scheme in history." In other news:Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, in Washington. A top FTX exec blew the whistle on Sam Bankman-Fried's moves just two days before the crypto exchange collapsed. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the stock market could fall further in 2023.

☆ Asia markets set to trade lower as recession fears grow
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Next year's story for the stock market is all about earnings, which are going to fall significantly, said Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. That rapidly slowing growth isn't priced into the market yet, he said in an interview with "Squawk Box" Thursday. "That negative operating leverage that we see from that falling inflation… is what is going to hurt margins, and that's irrespective of whether there is an economic recession." He's predicting 11% decline in year-over-year growth for S&P 500 companies next year. While his year-end target for the index is 3,900, he anticipates it will drop to between 3,000 and 3,300 in the first quarter.

☆ Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and 9 other top Wall Street firms share their predictions for stocks and the economy in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Here are 11 top investment firms' views on what's next for stocks and the economy in 2023. Heading into this year, the lowest S&P 500 price target among top investment firms was 4,400, which was set by long-time bear Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley. Insider surveyed 11 top investment firms and found that five see US stocks rising in 2023 from mid-December levels: Deutsche Bank, Oppenheimer, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and Credit Suisse. The firms had 2023 year-end S&P 500 price outlooks ranging from 4,500 (a 12.5% gain from the current level of about 4,000) to as low as 3,400 (a 15% loss). Below is the S&P 500 forecast, stock market outlook, and economic outlook from each of these major Wall Street firms, ranked from highest S&P 500 price target to lowest.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike WilsonMike Wilson, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market outlook in 2023 and potential investment strategies. "CPI has peaked. Inflation has peaked. We're confident that's going to come down in the next year. The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Wilson tells CNBC.

☆ Inflation has peaked but growth slowdown is not priced in, says Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has peaked but growth slowdown is not priced in, says Morgan Stanley CIO Mike WilsonMike Wilson, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market outlook in 2023 and potential investment strategies.

☆ Stocks are set to fall further in 2023, and investors haven't priced in a growth slowdown with inflation set to hammer corporate profits, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on Thursday about the potentially rough ride lower for the S&P 500 next year. Wilson has been warning of a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023. And the real question is, 'What does that mean about growth?,'" Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, said on CNBC. And that's what's going to determine the winners — it's a stock-picking game." Wilson has projected a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says his S&P 500 call is more bearish than most, and explains why
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson, who accurately called this year′s sell-off, said the market has now "run out of steam" and reiterated his bearish bet on the S & P 500 . His year-end target for the S & P 500 was 3,900, compared with an average forecast of 4,023, according to a CNBC market strategist survey . But the market's next fall will be dictated by a decline in earnings, Wilson said. The investment bank expects earnings per share (EPS) for the S & P 500 index to fall to $195 by the end of next year. "As we have been highlighting for months, the part of our analysis we are most confident about is our well below consensus earnings forecast for next year," the analysts said.

☆ Finding low volatility stocks that generate income for what's likely to be another tumultuous year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With 2023 expected to be another rocky year for the stock market, investors may find shelter in low volatility names that produce income. JPMorgan is expecting the S & P 500 to retest this year's lows and Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes earnings will shrink 15% to 20% next year. They also have a dividend yield greater than 2% and at least 60% of the analysts covering them rate the stocks a buy, according to FactSet. The companies are all the S & P 1500 and have at least 5 analysts covering them. Some 74% of analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating.

☆ On the eve of the Fed’s decision, the case for stocks’ year-end strength is solidifying
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Though after the late-day Monday levitation, with the Fed decision Wednesday and the nearby presence of the S & P 500 resistance line just overhead, the rally has backed off. Inflation declining from high levels has historically been a very positive dynamic for equity performance, and investors remain in a bit of a defensive stance, so the case for year-end strength is solidifying. Of course, there is the Fed decision to get through. The crowd is arguably over-extrapolating near-term recession and earnings-decline hazards in calling for a run toward or below the October S & P 500 lows before a round trip higher.

☆ 'People need to temper their expectations': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks have another 19% to fall before bottoming as recession looms and investors wrongly anticipate a Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date the S&P 500 is down 17% as the Fed tightens policy to rein in inflation. Bierman is the chief market technician at TheoTrade, and held the same position at TD Ameritrade between 2007-2015. The Fed has been tightening policy this year at the fastest pace in decades in an effort to cool the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. The second problem is that the US economy is already in a recession, Bierman says. But the number one indicator for Bierman that the US economy is in recession is the yield curve.

☆ Stocks won't be hit as badly by weakening corporate earnings in 2023 as many think, BlackRock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks won't be hit as badly by weak corporate earnings in 2023 as some think, according to BlackRock's Kate Moore. "There's a decent probability that the super bearish economic and earnings calls for 2023 are not going to prove right," she said to Bloomberg. "There's a decent probability that the super bearish economic and earnings calls for 2023 are not going to prove right. "And I don't think earnings are going to be catastrophic next year." Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist Mike Wilson warned that corporate earnings estimates were still at least 20% too high for 2023.

☆ The stock market is trapped in a clear downtrend, and the situation could get worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

They are watching the S & P 500 as it trades below its 200-day moving average after lifting above that threshold briefly. The S & P 500 surpassed the average on Nov. 30 and fell below it Monday. The 200-day is now at 4,040 for the broad-market index, and the S & P 500 closed at 3,933.92 on Wednesday. A loss of short-term momentum "I think the real story is within the downturn, we're losing short-term momentum. Stockton said her indicators showed the flip in the S & P 500 Tuesday.

☆ 'Another bear market rally': $38 billion Glenmede shares 3 reasons why the stock market's recent run is due to fail — including the track record for every bear market since World War II
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors hoping that the stock market's rally since mid-October is sustainable are bound for disappointment, according to top investors at wealth management firm Glenmede. The current bear market (highlighted below in green) is 11 months in, and the S&P 500 is down 18% over that time. Glenmede"The current bear market appears to be close to 2/3rds of the way through the typical bear-market decline. The current market appears to be following a similar trajectory of an average historical bear market so far," they said. "We've had a nice little run here in the stock market — it's the third double-digit percentage gain since the bear market started," Doll said.

☆ The stock market may retest this year's lows and returns will be nearly flat in 2023, Goldman Sachs chief equities strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks may retest lows this year and returns will be near-flat in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs' chief equities strategist David Kostin. The S&P 500 may hit 3,600 in the near term, as companies have revise 2023 earnings forecasts lower, he warned. Next year, the S&P 500 could see nearly flat returns, Kostin added, estimating that it could end 2023 at 3,750 to 4,000. "Therefore, if valuations are roughly at these levels – that's an optimistic scenario in my opinion – and there's not much earnings growth, you basically have a flat market," Kostin warned. And while the S&P 500 is down 17% from levels in January, the price-to-earnings ratio of the index is currently hovering around a multiple of 18.

☆ Wall Street's top commentators are torn on what the Federal Reserve will do next. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Traders are largely expecting policymakers to make a 50-basis-point rate hike, a smaller move than the previous four 75-basis-point increases. But next week's adjustment isn't what's top of mind for Wall Street's top Fed commentators — they're looking ahead to next year. To Bridgewater chief investment officer, Rebecca Patterson, the Fed would be justified in surprising markets by holding rates higher for longer. Sustained elevated rates are going to usher in dramatic changes to the economic landscape — and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers agrees. The price cap on Russian oil is "immaterial" and won't make a significant difference on market pricing, according to Vanda Insights.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the market Monday: Stocks, China, Apple
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

There's less than 2% upside at the high end of his year-end S & P 500 price target of 4,000 to 4,150. Citi cuts price target on Club holding Salesforce (CRM) to $164 per share from $170 but keeps neutral rating. Deutsche Bank downgrades Starbucks (SBUX) to hold from buy but increases price target to $106 per share from $100. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) price target raised to $548 per share to $511 at Barclays, which also keeps its overweight rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ From Bank of America to Morgan Stanley, Wall Street giants are expecting stocks to crash more than 20% next year. Here's what they've been saying.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Three major Wall Street banks expect the S&P 500 to tank over 20% at some point next year. Here's what Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank say about what could drag stocks lower. For Bank of America, a Federal Reserve-induced liquidity crisis could put pressure on the S&P 500 stock index. Here's where the S&P 500 is headed, and why, according to the major banks. He added lower earnings will cause intense pain for larger-cap stocks, and not just tech stocks.

☆ The inflation story is driving the 2023 stock market forecast for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

What's going to happen in the stock market in 2023? That is playing against the "inflation data is improving" narrative that has been powering the stock market recently. Judging by some of the comments from strategists, 2023 sounds pretty gloomy. The S & P 500 is above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Seven of the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.

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