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☆ Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor, Bullard insisted that the moves the Fed has made so far are insufficient. "Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023," he said. "To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further," he added in the presentation. The Fed has approved four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate increases, and markets widely expect the December FOMC meeting to yield a 0.5 percentage point move. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Wednesday that she expects more rate increases and that a "pause is off the table" even with a lower level of rate increases.

☆ Gold flat as geopolitical tensions ease; focus on future Fed path
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices were flat on Thursday as safe-haven demand from latest geopolitical concerns faded, while hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would be less aggressive on rate hikes over coming months underpinned the market. Gold prices hit a three-month peak of $1,786.35 per ounce on Tuesday, after news that Russian missiles killed two people in Poland near the Ukraine border. Focus remained on Fed's interest rate strategy, with traders pricing in a 93% probability of a 50 basis-point of rate hike at the U.S. central bank's December meeting. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were hovering near a one-month low, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.

☆ Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.

☆ Indian shares down on concerns over Fed's rate posture
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Praveen Paramasivam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Indian shares slipped on Thursday, mirroring the weakness in Asian peers, amid growing signs that the Federal Reserve might not temper its aggressive monetary policy anytime soon. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid a steeper 1.47%, with analysts pinning the smaller drop in local equities to India's fiscal health and economic growth prospects. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly even said a pause was off the table. The Fed's stance could trigger "bouts of volatility," said Prashanth Tapse, vice president of research at Mehta Equities. "Traders are not uncomfortable with the high valuation of Indian markets, hence periodic profit-taking will continue."

As food prices have risen, a U.S Census survey showed the share of households reporting food scarcity rising from 7.8% in August 2021 to 11.4% as of early October. As with other goods and services, there is a broad set of forces behind the Thanksgiving food spike. Thanksgiving-related travel this year may at least be cheaper than it was, with airline and fuel prices having declined recently. Discounted turkey prices often lure consumers to grocery stores and supermarkets, and bargains intensify as the holiday approaches. The Farm Bureau noted that frozen turkey prices had fallen to 95 cents a pound as of this week.

Shares of Target Corp (TGT.N) tumbled 12% after the big-box retailer forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales. Micron Technology (MU.O) shares dropped over 7% after the company said it would reduce memory chip supply and make more cuts to its capital spending plan. The S&P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) dropped 1.3%, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX) sank over 4%. Elsewhere in retail, shares of Lowe's (LOW.N) rose over 3% after the home improvement company raised its annual profit forecast. The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 54 new highs and 110 new lows.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies October retail sales rise more than expectedTarget's dull outlook weighs on retailersMicron's supply cut triggers chip selloffIndexes: Dow up 0.05%, S&P down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 1.10%Nov 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Wednesday as a grim outlook from Target spurred fresh concerns for retailers heading into the crucial holiday season, while Micron's supply cut triggered a selloff in the chip sector. Target Corp (TGT.N) tumbled as much as 17% in early trading as a pullback in consumer spending despite heavy discounting cut its third-quarter profit by half. Despite the sales warning from Target, data showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and suggesting that consumer spending remained stable. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.73-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.23-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 50 new highs and 104 new lows.

☆ A pause is off the table, says San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA pause is off the table, says San Francisco Fed President Mary DalyMary Daly, San Francisco Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss monetary policy goals, slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, and more.

Late on Tuesday Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said policy tightening so far has not dented inflation, and on Wednesday San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said pausing the hiking cycle is off the table and is not part of the discussion. Until recently, Daly was one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Her comments helped push Wall Street into the red on a day when bulls might have expected to have the upper hand. The more the economy refuses to slow, the more aggressive the Fed will have to be. Wall Street - and stocks and risk assets around the world - has a problem.

☆ I'm not in camp that thinks the Fed will cut rates in 2023, says Ironsides' Knapp
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm not in camp that thinks the Fed will cut rates in 2023, says Ironsides' KnappBarry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics managing partner and director of research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly and her comments around a potential pivot, if the stock market could still go up in a heightened rate environment and more.

☆ Fed's Daly sees rates rising at least another percentage point as 'pausing is off the table'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Wednesday she expects the central bank to raise interest rates at least another percentage point, and possibly more, before it can pause to evaluate how the inflation fight is going. Thus far, the Fed has hiked the fed funds rate, which spills over into a slew of other consumer debt products, six times, including four consecutive 0.75 percentage point moves. Traders see the central bank adding another 0.5 percentage point when it meets again in mid-December, then moving a bit higher before stopping around the 4.75%-5% range. The Fed is using its primary tool of interest rate increases to right inflation that still is around its highest level in more than 40 years. Daly said she expects higher rates to continue to have an impact on the economy and bring inflation back in line.

☆ FTX's collapse shows the Fed's tightening is crushing speculative assets like crypto – and don't expect a pivot anytime soon, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

FTX's collapse shows Federal Reserve tightening is crushing speculative assets, UBS said Tuesday. Its aggressive interest rate hikes have injected "vulnerability" into crypto, the bank CIO said. Investors should treat the unregulated crypto space with extreme caution, because jumbo Fed rate hikes could expose further issues in the sector, Haefele said. "The reduction in central bank liquidity has added to the vulnerability of this market." Christopher Waller, Fed governor and voting member, said Sunday the central bank still had "a ways to go" before it'd consider ending its rate hikes.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Wall Street ends sharply higher on sign of cooling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Noel Randewich | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

One-time Wall Street darlings tarnished in 2022's bear market were among Thursday's strongest performers, with Nvidia (NVDA.O) jumping about 14%, Meta Platforms (META.O) climbing 10% and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) rising 7.6%. Growing recession worries have hammered Wall Street this year. The S&P 500 (.SPX) remains down about 17% year to date, and it is on course for its biggest annual decline since 2008. S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 climbed 5.54% to end the session at 3,956.31 points. All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rallied, led by information technology (.SPLRCT), up 8.33%, followed by a 7.74% gain in real estate (.SPLRCR).

☆ Fed's Daly: inflation report "good news," still resolute on policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Nov 10 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Thursday said that a slowdown in October in consumer inflation is "good news," but "one month does not a victory make," she said, adding that the Fed will be "resolute" in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal. Reporting by Ann Saphir;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed officials welcome inflation news but still see tighter policy ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve officials welcomed Thursday's news showing that inflation rose less than expected last month, and they noted that interest rate increases could slow ahead. But they also cautioned against getting too excited by the data, noting that prices are still far too high. The data sent a possible signal that while inflation is still running high, price increases may have leveled off and could soon head lower. Likewise, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday's report "suggests some easing in overall and core inflation," though she noted that the trend is still "unacceptably high." Kansas City Fed President Esther George noted that even with the lower monthly gain, inflation is still "uncomfortably close" to the 41-year annual high hit in the summer.

Now some of those same policymakers are reaching for a more familiar lexicon dating from a time when rate hikes came in bland, quarter-point increments, not the 75-basis-point-per-meeting pace they've stuck to since June. It's one clear signal the U.S. central bank is poised to slow what's been the fastest round of rate hikes in 40 years to take stock of the impact of higher borrowing costs. It was a point seemingly lost on market participants, as U.S. stocks soared and traders priced in a lower peak for the Fed policy rate next year - 4.75%-5%, versus the 5%-plus level seen before the inflation report and the policymaker speeches. But even as she said the peak fed funds rate cannot be "predetermined," she noted that "some have argued" the Fed funds rate must at a minimum rise above year-ahead inflation expectations, currently running at about 5%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker for his part said he believes the Fed ought to pause once rates get above 4.6%, to gauge the effects of tighter policy.

☆ U.S. monetary policy tighter than benchmark rate suggests: Fed research
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. monetary policy is tighter than the Federal Reserve's policy rate suggests, according to research published Monday by the San Francisco Fed, with financial conditions by September 2022 reflecting the equivalent of a 5.25% policy rate. The actual policy rate at the time was 3%-3.25%; even after last week's increase, the Fed's benchmark rate is in the 3.75%-4% range. "Accounting for the broader stance of policy and comparing the proxy rate to simple rules suggests U.S. monetary policy tightened sooner and more sharply than has been generally recognized," the Letter said. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has advocated slowing rate hikes so as not to overtighten policy and needlessly damage the labor market. While the Fed's actual policy rate is lower than what some widely referenced monetary policy rules, such as the Taylor rule, indicate is appropriate, "our proxy rate indicates that policy is tighter than most rules prescribe," the San Francisco Fed researchers found.

☆ The two words investors want to hear from Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

As markets look for signs that the Federal Reserve is stepping away from its breakneck pace of interest rate hikes, two words from this week's meeting could be crucial. No one is expecting the Fed to stop rate hikes, at least for several months. "The November FOMC meeting is not about the November policy rate decision. Instead, the meeting is about future policy rate guidance and what to expect in December and beyond." Even with the step-down hopes from Wednesday's meeting, market expectations are still for a fairly aggressive Fed.

☆ The Fed could lay the groundwork for a year end rally in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The coming week is also the busiest of the corporate earnings season, with about a third of the S & P 500 companies releasing results. "Historically, the market waits for the last Fed rate hike to be introduced and then the market climbs higher. The S & P 500 was up more than 8.8% for the month. The Dow was up 5.7% on the week, the S & P 500 was up 5.7% and the Nasdaq was up 2.2%. The 50-day moving average is 3,841 for the S & P 500, and it was well above it Friday afternoon for the second time in the past week.

☆ Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

No stranger to political pressure, the Fed chief this week found himself the focus of concern in a letter from Sen. Sherrod Brown. Democrats, including then-presidential hopeful Joe Biden, criticized Trump for his Fed comments, insisting the central bank be free of political pressure when formulating monetary policy. Standing firmBrown's stance was considerably more nuanced than Trump's — though equally unlikely to move the dial on monetary policy. A Fed spokesman acknowledged that Powell received the Brown letter and said normal policy is to respond to such communication directly. In the past, Powell has been generally dismissive when asked if political pressure can factor into decision making.

☆ Wall Street's fear gauge drops to a 4-week low as expectations for less-aggressive Fed rate hikes fuel stock gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street's so-called fear gauge hit a one-month low Tuesday as stocks rose amid speculation the Fed will reduce the size of future rate hikes. The Cboe Volatility Index fell by more than 4% to its lowest level since September 23. Investors have latched onto signs the Fed may downshift rate hikes from the current size of 75 basis points. The Cboe Volatility Index, a widely watched track of the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500 index, fell 4.5% to 28.49, the lowest level for the VIX since September 23. The CME FedWatch tool on Tuesday showed expectations locked in for a rate hike of 75 basis points at the Fed's November 1-2 meeting.

☆ U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Speculation about a potentially more dovish Fed - despite U.S. inflation remaining hot - was visible in money markets. But they climbed back again, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields up at 4.229% and two-year note yields at 4.498%. On the long end, 30-year Treasury yields rose to an 11-year high of 4.359%. "If the Fed is going to be data dependent, these data points should be a focus point for them. Whether or not that actually happens, is yet to be seen," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

☆ Dollar shakes off suspected Japan intervention; stocks brace for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to rise against the yen on Monday, while European markets got a lift from hopes that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than previously thought. Japan likely spent a record 5.4 trillion-5.5 trillion yen ($36.16 billion-$36.83 billion) in its yen-buying intervention last Friday, according to estimates by Tokyo money market brokerage firms. Sterling, meanwhile, see-sawed in volatile trade on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of the running for British prime minister. Chinese blue chips slid almost 3%, while Hong Kong shares fell 6.4%, their biggest one-day drop since the financial crisis. Sentiment will also be tested by some major earnings with Apple, Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon all reporting.

☆ U.S., European shares rise on hopes Fed will slow rate hike pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Chris Prentice | Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. and European shares rose on Monday as signs of a cooling U.S. economy raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes. “Investors are getting more confident that inflation is going to come down and that the Fed might be quick to pause. European shares rose on Monday, driven by hopes that the Federal Reserve could slow its pace of interest rate hikes, while investors braced for a busy week of earnings and key interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. Markets are still priced for a rate rise of 75 basis points next month, but have scaled back bets on a matching move in December. Chinese blue chips slid almost 3%, while Hong Kong shares fell 6.4%, their biggest one-day drop since the financial crisis.

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