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☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI increased 6%, still elevated but well off its 11.6% peak in March 2022. The PPI increase came amid a 5% increase in energy costs but a 1% decline in food. About one-third of that increase came from a 6.2% increase in the gasoline index. The services index rose 0.4%, pushed by a 0.6% increase in prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing.

☆ Wall St slides as inflation, jobless claims data fuel rate-hike angst
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Another set showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected." The Fed is seen pushing the benchmark rate above the 5% mark by May and keeping it above those levels till the year-end. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and one new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 28 new highs and 22 new lows.

☆ Stocks slide as investors worry about more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks tumbled Thursday morning after the US government’s Producer Price Index report showed that prices at the wholesale level rose faster than expected in January. The unwelcome inflation news comes just two days after the Consumer Price Index figures showed that retail prices continue to come in above forecasts. Investors also were unnerved by comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester about inflation and the economy. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, another regional bank president who does not have a vote on the FOMC this year, is giving a speech this afternoon. Streaming media device maker Roku (ROKU) also soared following strong earnings.

☆ US stocks drop on stubbornly high inflation and Fed officials' comments on more rate hike to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Thursday as an increase in wholesale prices heightened inflation worries. Fed officials Loretta Mester and James Bullard said further rate hikes are warranted. "[Coupled] with a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), markets have priced in a Federal Reserve probability of more rate hikes than initially anticipated," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. "With the futures market now pricing in a strong probability of two more 25-basis-point rate hikes this year, probability is edging higher for a third hike." Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reportedly said more rate increases will "lock in" slowing inflation, even alongside an economic expansion.

☆ Jim Cramer's Investing Club meeting Thursday: Stocks fall, Cisco, Palo Alto Networks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Buy Palo Alto Networks We're bullish on our newest Club holding, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), a leader in the cybersecurity industry. Palo Alto stock was trading down roughly 1.7% Thursday, at $174.22 a share. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Asia-Pacific stocks fall tracking losses on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that interest rates have to keep moving higher even with recent inflation readings softening. In an interview with the Associated Press, the policymaker said the Fed likely will have to take its benchmark interest rate above 5% in order to get inflation moving consistently down to the central bank's 2% goal. She noted that markets and the economy absorbed the half-point December rate hike without a problem. "I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the [Jan. 31-Feb. 1] meeting how much to do at any one particular meeting," Mester said. The fed funds rate is currently targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

☆ Recessions risks knock stocks, speculators drawn back to yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Nikkei dip and the bounce for the yen suggest such speculation is here to stay, at least for now. April was another possibility, she added, since by then the BOJ would have a new governor. "My guess would be that more speculators would look to build positions going into these meetings." Microsoft's announcement of 10,000 layoffs and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added to the gloom, with both Fed officials expecting U.S. interest rates above 5% this year. The Australian dollar was last down 0.5% at $0.6907, losing ground after data showed an unexpected fall in Australian employment last month.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Futures fall as weak data fuel recession worries, Fed comments on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.52%, S&P 0.54%, Nasdaq 0.61%Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Thursday after weak economic data fueled recession worries, while investors await comments from more Federal Reserve officials for clues on the central bank's path of monetary tightening. "For once bad news really was bad news because of the implications it might have for interest rates. Weak retail sales suggested consumers' resilience may have been pushed beyond breaking point," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of the year. ET, Dow e-minis were down 173 points, or 0.52%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 21.25 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 69.5 points, or 0.61%.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

Brent <LCOc1> futures fell 94 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $84.98 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 70 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at 79.48. Markets at first reacted positively to U.S. data, which showed retail sales and manufacturing production declined more than forecast in December, on hopes the Fed would now ease up on interest rate hikes. Supporting oil prices early in the session, China reported economic data that beat forecasts after the country started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December. Rystad said the losses were at about 500,000 barrels per day and that India and China remain key buyers of Russian crude.

Markets reacted positively to data, which showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December. However, the gains were short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.23-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.53-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 12 new lows.

☆ Fed's Mester says rates need to rise "a little bit" above 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A U.S. Dollar note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates a “little bit” above the 5.00% to 5.25% range in order to bring inflation to heel, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, as she declined to disclose her preferred size of move at the upcoming policy meeting. “We’re not at 5% yet, we’re not above 5%, which I think is going to be needed given where my projections are for the economy,” Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. “We’re beginning to see the kind of actions that we need to see,” Mester added. “Good signs that things are moving in the right direction ... That’s important input into how we’re thinking about where policy needs to go.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday and is experiencing mild symptoms, the central bank said in a statement on Wednesday.

☆ Fed policymakers call for further rate hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Howard Schneider | Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.

☆ Dow plunges 600 points as Fed officials say more rate hikes are needed to keep pulling inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks tumbled after hawkish talk on rates from two Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester each see the need for rates to rise to 5% or beyond. The Dow plunged 600 points, and the S&P 500 ended lower for a second straight day. The S&P 500 finished in the red for a second straight day, and none of its 11 sectors moved higher. Stocks may finish 2023 with a positive return, with the S&P 500 potentially landing at 4,275, said Hainlin.

☆ Gold nudges lower as Fed members bat for higher interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices held steady near the key psychological level of $1,800 per ounce on Monday, supported by a pullback in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Gold prices turned negative on Wednesday, erasing gains made on weak U.S. economic data yet staying above the $1,900 level, as key members of the Federal Reserve signaled their intent to keep pushing interest rates higher to combat inflation. The dollar pared losses from near multi-month lows and held steady, making gold less attractive for other currency holders. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,904.84 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. Earlier in the day, U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in December as the costs of energy products and food declined, offering evidence that inflation was slowing.

☆ The global rally in stocks that's kicked off 2023 may prove to be 'head fake' as it's too soon to assume inflation is receding, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock-market rally at the start of 2023 faces risks from still-elevated inflation, UBS Global Wealth Management said. Central bankers are monitoring core prices, which rose in the euro area and the US in December. "The possibility that core inflation is sticker than expected remains a risk for markets." In the US, core prices increased by 0.3% as monthly shelter costs drove higher by 0.8%. "While the strong start to the year is welcome and we believe more risk-tolerant investors can start to anticipate an inflection point in 2023, we advise against complacency," Haefele wrote.

"I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the meeting how much to do." The Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Investors expect the Fed to lift that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its Jan. 31 -Feb. 1 meeting. Several Fed officials have expressed support for slowing to quarter-percentage-point rate increases so as not to slow the labor market more than necessary. The answer may in part be found in the latest "Beige Book" report published by the Fed on Wednesday.

☆ Fed's Mester sees rates rising more than most policy makers have forecast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she believes the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates higher than the level most policy makers cited in their Fed forecasts this week. "We need to continue to bring up interest rates into a restrictive stance," Mester said. Mester has been a voting member of the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee this year but will not hold that role next year. Mester said recent inflation data pointing to moderating price increases is "good news." Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Leslie Adler and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

☆ The stock market could soar to new records in another 1982-style vertical rally as inflation continues to ease, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could rise abruptly and cause the S&P 500 to hit 4,400-4,500 by the end of the year, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Lee also noted that inflation was being fueled by several transitory pressures, such as supply chain issues and "revenge" spending. In 1982, the S&P 500 rebounded so sharply that in just four months it recovered from a 27-month bear market, he pointed out in a note on Tuesday. In his view, it could cause the S&P 500 to rally to 4,400 to 4,500 by the end of the year — a 12% rise from current levels. He's previously said the S&P 500 could rally to another all-time high of 4800 by the end of the year, before revising that prediction downward.

Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N) jumped 12.4%, leading gains on S&P 500 (.SPX) index, after forecasting a smaller drop in annual sales than previously estimated, confident that a ramp up in deals and discounts will lure more customers. "People are hopeful that consumers can still squeeze out a strong holiday season despite the headwinds they're facing," said Brandon Pizzurro, director of public investments at GuideStone Capital Management. "It would be an upside surprise if consumers really brought their full wallet to the table this year, probably what's driving Best Buy movement today." Gains in Best Buy boosted the S&P 500 retail (.SPXRT) sector index, but a 9.4% fall in Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR.O) capped the upside as the discount retailer lowered its annual profit forecast for the second time. Energy (.SPNY) led gains among the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes, up 3.0%, as oil prices rose after top exporter Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ stuck with output cuts.

Dow component (.DJI) Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA.O) rose 1.9% after Cowen & Co upgraded the drug distributor stock, citing its healthcare services business push. Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N) soared 9.4%, rising the most among S&P 500 (.SPX) components after forecasting a smaller-than-expected drop in annual sales. Energy (.SPNY) led gains among the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes, bouncing off four-week lows by adding 2%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.70-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.12-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 19 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 49 new highs and 122 new lows.

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