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☆ Fed's Williams says interest rate path is data dependent
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 11 (Reuters) - The prospect of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate only once more and in a 25 basis point increment is a useful starting point but the central bank's policy path will depend on incoming data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a 4.75%-5.00% range at that meeting. "We have to be driven by the data," Williams said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is still running at more than twice that target rate. "So the real question to me is, we've gotten to restrictive (on policy), what's it going to take to be sufficiently restrictive?

☆ There's no clear sign of a US credit crunch yet, a top Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's no clear signs of a US credit crunch yet, according to Fed official John Williams. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he said. The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank has stoked fears that lending standards to obtain a loan will become harder. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he added at a New York University event Monday. Other commentators have blamed the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes as a key factor in the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.

☆ Gold advances on softer dollar as traders await US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,012.30. Traders are now focussing on the U.S. consumer price data due Wednesday for more clarity on the path of rates heading into the Fed's May policy meeting. The opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. "Near-term, there are also bearish technical setups for a corrective move lower" in gold prices, OCBC's Wong added. Data on Tuesday showed top bullion consumer China's March consumer inflation hit the slowest pace since September 2021 and suggested demand weakness persisted amid an uneven economic recovery.

☆ Fed's Williams doubts monetary policy spiked banking sector stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The banking sector stress drove the Fed to provide substantial amounts of liquidity to the financial system, even as officials have stressed repeatedly that by and large the banking system is safe and sound and abounding with liquidity. Williams said he viewed the trouble at the two banks as unique in nature and unlikely to reflect broader trends in the financial system. That said, Fed officials have said that banking sector stress will likely weigh on the economy, as financial firms pull back on lending. Williams said that he also sees a gradual rise over time in unemployment from the current low 3.5% to between 4% and 4.5%. Williams said he is not concerned by market expectations of rate cuts even though the Fed currently has penciled in an additional rate rise this year.

☆ Fed's Williams: Expects to see unemployment rate to rise gradually to 4% to 4.5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Williams: Expects to see unemployment rate to rise gradually to 4% to 4.5%CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to report on New York Fed President John Williams latest remarks.

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

☆ Gold dips as stronger dollar dampens appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as a sturdy dollar made the greenback-denominated metal less affordable for buyers holding other currencies. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0049 GMT. * The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. * Markets see a 48.4% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter point in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final0750 France S&P Global Mfg PMI0755 Germany S&P Global/BME Mfg PMI0800 EU S&P Global Mfg Final PMI0830 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg Final PMI1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMIReporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Williams says financial conditions key to rate policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Friday uncertain developments with financial conditions will be a key contributor to his thinking about what’s next for central bank interest rate policy. When the Fed met last week and raised its overnight target rate it noted that tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on growth. In thinking about monetary policy, “I will be particularly focused on assessing the evolution of credit conditions and their effects on the outlook for growth, employment, and inflation,” Williams said in his speech. The New York Fed president’s remarks Friday were his first since the FOMC met last week. In his remarks, Williams laid out some short-term pain for the economy as the Fed uses policy to cool inflation.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE growth slowsVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures up: Dow 0.37%, S&P 0.28%, Nasdaq 0.14%March 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Friday after data showed inflation slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. Traders' bets of a 25-basis-point rate hike in May stand at 55.5%, with odds of a pause at 44.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. "But in terms of the Fed's calculus, they'll have to have more confirmation that disinflation is really taking hold beyond just a few data points here and there." U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a session low of 3.534% after the data. The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE data due at 8:30 am ETVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures mixed: Dow up 0.23%, S&P up 0.19%, Nasdaq flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Friday as investors awaited inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release the February reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.01%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ Fed's Williams: Banking system stresses likely to result in tightening credit conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Williams: Banking system stresses likely to result in tightening credit conditionsCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Closing Bell' to report on the latest remarks from New York Fed President John Williams.

☆ Futures muted as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow flat, S&P up 0.04%, Nasdaq down 0.02%March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were flat on Friday as investors steered clear of big bets ahead of crucial inflation data, amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also due later in the day. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled to speak later on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were flat, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.02%.

☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ Premarket stocks: The forgotten rescue plan that could prevent another SVB-like collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Bank stocks rebounded significantly on Tuesday after logging record plunges Monday and the week prior. Those banks will coordinate to take Fed loans around the same time on the same day alongside smaller banks. ▸ US bank stocks rebounded on Tuesday, recovering some of their losses after the collapse of three banks tested markets on Monday. Regional bank stocks rallied: First Republic (FRC) Bank ended the day up 27% after a record drop on Monday. The question is whether bank stocks can hold on to their gains or if Tuesday was just a sector-wide dead cat bounce.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

☆ Morning Bid: A new R*
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. While it held rates at 3.5% as expected, the commentary warned that restrictive policy would be needed for a "considerable time". Indeed, it's looking like global supply chains will never be the same, what with the pandemic, the Russian-Ukraine war and Sino-U.S. tensions. Most developed nations also face a decline in working-age populations and sharply rising dependency ratios. All of which suggests higher inflation is here to stay and the neutral level of real interest rates has shifted upward.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Wall St slightly higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday after a rebound in business activity in February stoked fears of interest rates staying higher for longer. New York Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting committee this year, is scheduled to speak later in the day. Following a market rout in 2022, the three major indexes logged monthly gains in January as investors hoped the Fed would pause its rate hikes and perhaps pivot around year-end. However, stocks have had a volatile run in February, leaving the Dow flat for the year as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, assuming that inflation remains higher in a sturdy economy. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and one new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 21 new highs and 92 new low.

☆ Wall St set for higher open as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday as investors worried that a rebound in U.S. business activity in February could mean interest rates might need to stay higher for longer. ET (1900 GMT), are expected to detail the breadth of debate at the central bank over how much further interest rates may need to be raised to slow inflation. However, stocks have had a volatile run in February as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, considering inflation remains above the 2% target in the face of a sturdy economy. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023.

☆ Futures stable after Wall St rout on rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ET (1900 GMT), is anticipated to detail the breadth of debate at the central bank over how much further interest rates may need to be raised to slow inflation. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were up 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 12 points, or 0.1%. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said rates will have to go north of 5% to tame inflation. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Hang on a minute
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And so a speech from New York Fed chief John Williams make give a better steer on current thinking. Markets are now priced for a Fed 'terminal rate' in the 5.25-5.50% range by July and no cut from there by year-end. European central bankers are also talking tough as the region's economies dodge recession and inflation stays high. But geopolitical concerns rankle again ahead of Friday's anniversary, with Russia unilaterally withdrawing from a key nuclear arms control treaty. As G20 finance chiefs meet in India, the world is watching closely the extent of the alliance between Beijing and Moscow.

☆ Fed is 'absolutely' committed to 2% inflation target, Williams says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Wednesday said the U.S. central bank is "absolutely" committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years, by bringing demand down in line with constrained supply. "Our job is clear: our job is to make sure we restore price stability, which is truly the foundation of a strong economy," Williams said at a conference hosted at the bank. He noted that with global supply chains still disrupted, goods prices may not continue their recent decline, and inflation in core services excluding housing continues to be far too high, driven by too much demand relative to supply. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St inches higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday after a rebound in business activity in February stoked fears of interest rates staying higher for longer. "We expect all indicators to point to the Fed remaining hawkish in its inflation fight." However, stocks have had a volatile run in February as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, considering inflation remains elevated in the face of a sturdy economy. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023.

The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes will be a key focal point for investors in the week ahead, as they seek clarity on the central bank's interest rate hiking path. Fed meeting minutes For Wall Street, there will be greater emphasis next week on the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which are set to be released Wednesday. Following some recent comments from central bank officials suggesting greater rate hikes ahead, investors will parse the meeting minutes for further signs of hawkishness. ET: Fed minutes 5:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February) Earnings: Alibaba , Beyond Meat , Block , Booking Holdings , Warner Bros Discovery Friday 8:30 a.m.

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