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The best-performing exchange-traded funds in the second half will likely be decided by broader shifts in the markets and economy. Even with mounting uncertainty, however, there are some types of ETFs that could emerge as winners. Equities A handful of stocks were big winners in the first half, and some narrowly focused ETFs were able to ride that wave. Single-stock funds tied to Nvidia have also seen heavy interest, including the GraniteShares 2x Long Nvidia ETF (NVDL) . However, Hougan said he didn't think that omission would be a big hurdle for ETF investors.
Persons: Michael Arone, Arone, Jay Jacobs, Jacobs, Todd Sohn, bullish, we're, Sohn, Matt Hougan, Hougan Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Nvidia, Microsoft, NYSE Technology, iShares, Digital Infrastructure, Real, U.S . Tech, Blackstone Senior Loan, Loan Fund, New, Bitwise Asset Management, ETH Locations: U.S
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Nvidia — Shares of the artificial intelligence darling fell 1% after a rare negative call on Wall Street . New Street Research downgraded Nvidia to hold from buy, citing limited upside given the big run already this year. Crypto stocks — Stocks tied to the cryptocurrency plummeted after the trustee for the now defunct Mt. SoftBank Group , Arm Holdings — U.S. shares of SoftBank rose 5.5% after Japanese shares hit their first record high in 24 years on Thursday. Teck Resources — The stock rose more than 2% after Bloomberg reported Thursday that Canada had approved Glencore's $6.9 billion acquisition of Teck's metallurgical coal business.
Persons: Macy's, Stocks, Energy, CleanSpark, Masayoshi, SoftBank, Nio, Zeekr, Li, Emmanuel Papadakis, Teck, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound Organizations: Nvidia, New, Research, Street Journal, Arkhouse Management, Brigade Capital Management, Marathon, SoftBank, Arm Holdings —, Reuters, Francisco Partners, KKR, , European Union, Li Auto, Novo Nordisk, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, Deutsche Bank, Harvard Medical, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: SoftBank, Europe, Novo, Teck
Crypto stocks — Stocks tied to bitcoin price slid after the cryptocurrency dropped 5% to its lowest level since February , with the now defunct Mt. Macy's — Shares of the retailer jumped more than 6% following a Wall Street Journal report that an investor group has hiked its takeout offer. Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management are now offering about $24.80 per share for Macy's, up from $24 previously, the report said. Tesla — The electric vehicle manufacturer popped 2%, marking a continuing comeback after its second-quarter vehicle deliveries number beat analyst estimates earlier this week. Shell — Shares popped 1%.
Persons: Stocks, Energy, CleanSpark, Instructure, Tesla, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Tanaya Macheel, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound Organizations: Marathon, Francisco Partners, KKR, Reuters, Macy's, Journal, Arkhouse Management, Brigade Capital Management, Novo Nordisk —, Harvard, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic, Deutsche Bank, Shell Locations: Novo, Singapore, Rotterdam
Health care and social assistance added 82,400 jobs, while government increased by 70,000 positions. The breakdown of the June jobs report suggests that growth has become increasingly uneven as the labor market shows signs of softening. Health care and social assistance have been a key component of the labor market recovery since the pandemic. Meanwhile, education accounted for 17,200 of the jobs added in the government sector. Both state and local governments added jobs outside of education, as well.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Jeffrey Roach, payrolls, Roach Organizations: Labor Department, LPL
Tesla — The electric vehicle maker rose nearly 3% , a day after posting stronger-than-expected delivery numbers for the second quarter. Shares popped 10% during Tuesday's session. Constellation Brands — The beer and wine stock rose more than 2% after a better-than-expected earnings report. Southwest Airlines — Shares were fractionally lower after the airline carrier announced it had adopted a shareholder rights plan. Shares dipped about 1% during Tuesday's session.
Persons: Tesla, LSEG, Eli Lilly, — CNBC's Lisa Han, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min Organizations: Paramount, Paramount Global, Skydance Media, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Constellation Brands, Constellation, Southwest Airlines —, Elliott Investment Management, Food and Drug Administration, MGM Resorts, MGM Resorts International
A top strategist at JPMorgan who was caught offside by the stock market rally is quitting the investment firm. Marko Kolanovic, who served as chief global markets strategist and co-head of global research, is leaving the bank to explore other opportunities, according to a source familiar with the internal announcement. In his place, Hussein Malik will become the sole head of global research, and Dubravko Lakos-Bujas will serve as chief markets strategist. Kolanovic rose to prominence among market watchers for correctly predicting a stock market rebound in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. JPMorgan's current year-end prediction for the S&P 500 is 4,200, while no other major firm in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey is below 5,200.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Hussein Malik, Dubravko, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, CNBC Market, ., Bloomberg News
A weakening economy may help push the Federal Reserve to make more rate cuts this year than the market is currently expecting, according to Lazard. The firm's chief market strategist Ronald Temple said in a second-half outlook that his base case is for the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with two additional cuts later in the year. Temple's base case is more aggressive on rate cuts than the current market view. However, Temple says the Fed will be able to lean on the economic data to make a move. Temple did caution that Fed rate cuts may not end up significantly lowering long-term interest rates, which could be bad news for prospective homeowners waiting for mortgage rates to drop.
Persons: Lazard, Ronald Temple, Temple, Jerome Powell, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S
"We see softness in data — permits, starts, sales and prices all recently below expectations — potentially continuing in 2H," the analyst wrote. The bank initiated the health care tech stock with an overweight rating and a December 2025 price target of $24. "Waystar is a vertical, cloud-based software company focused on automating, digitizing, and enhancing revenue cycle management functions," wrote analyst Anne Samuel. Analyst Daniel Politzer reiterated his overweight rating on the casino and resort stock but lowered his price target to $58 from $60. The analyst wrote that he sees "the current valuation as an attractive entry point into what we view as one of the most durable companies in our coverage."
Persons: Piper Sandler, Mizuho, Piper Sandler downgrades CrowdStrike Piper Sandler, Rob Owens, Owens, CrowdStrike, Lisa Kailai Han, downgrades Goldman, Jim Mitchell, Goldman Sachs, Mitchell, Goldman, — Jesse Pound, Brandt Montour, Montour, VIK, — Hakyung Kim, Anthony Pettinari, Pettinari, — Lisa Kailai Han, Guggenheim, Tesla, Ronald Jewsikow, Keith Gill, Gill, he's, Kitty, Musk, Jewsikow, Waystar, Anne Samuel, Samuels, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Ehrlich, Wells, Daniel Politzer, Politzer, GGR, WYNN est's, , Mizuho Mizuho, James Lee, Lee, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Seaport, of America, downgrades Goldman Sachs Seaport Research, Bank of America, Barclays, Viking Holdings, American Baby Boomers, Citi, Federal, Securities and Exchange Commission, JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Spotify, Spotify Technology, Las Vegas, Vegas, Macau GGR, Intelligence, Amazon Locations: Amazon, SIEM, Lennar, 2H, Chewy, Europe, China, Las, Las Vegas Sands, Macau, Bay Sands, Singapore, Atlassian, Monday's
Boeing , Spirit AeroSystems — Boeing on Monday said it would buy back fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in a $4.7 billion all-stock deal. Trump Media & Technology Group — Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group rose 3% following a roughly 11% loss during Friday's session. Nio — The Chinese electric vehicle stock rose 6% on Monday after the company said vehicle deliveries rose nearly 100% in June . Tesla — The electric vehicle stock popped 6%. NextEra Energy Partners — The renewable energy stock dropped 5%.
Persons: Keith Gill, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Birkenstock, Nio, Tesla, Beryl, , Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Sarah Min, Hakyung Kim Organizations: GameStop, Boeing, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media & Technology Group, UBS, Point Capital Management, NextEra Energy Partners, Royal Bank of Canada, Cruise, Royal Locations: Point, Grenada, Royal Caribbean
These ETFs, often called "buffer funds," use options to give investors downside protection in exchange for giving up potential upside. The funds come with different time horizons, and new funds are launching or resetting every month, so there are several options for investors to buy now and protect themselves through the November election. Many of the ETFs offer something in the range of 10% to 30% downside protection and are often called buffer funds. Other products that offer 100% downside protection — in exchange for smaller upside — are sometimes marketed as "principal protection funds." Jim Saulnier, a CFP and founder of Jim Saulnier & Associates in Fort Collins, Colorado, said his clients use both the buffer funds and the 100% downside protection funds.
Persons: Bruce Bond, Matt Kaufman, Jim Saulnier, Saulnier, Bond, there's, Matt Thompson, Thompson, Kaufman Organizations: U.S, JPMorgan, Capital Management, Calamos Investments, Jim Saulnier & Associates, Little Harbor Advisors Locations: Fort Collins , Colorado, iShares
"The world has been talking about a recession for the better part of two years, and people have been investing that way," Schutte said. Schutte said that the price-to-cash flow ratio for the S & P Small Cap 600 index already looks like it typically does at the end of recessions. The S & P 500 is up 14.5% year to date, while the Russell 2000 small cap index is higher by just 1%. The S & P 600 Small Cap index is actually down by almost 2% on the year. .RUT YTD mountain Small cap stocks are lagging behind their larger counterparts.
Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte, Russell Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, CNBC, Northwestern, University of Chicago Booth School, Businesss, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: U.S
Nike — Nike shares sank more than 14% after the athletic retailer posted disappointing revenue for the recent quarter and cut its guidance, saying it expects sales to drop 10% in the current period. Trump Media & Technology — Shares of Trump Media & Technology jumped more than 10% on the heels of the first presidential debate between former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. JPMorgan upgraded Digital Realty Trust to overweight, saying that shares look poised to benefit from AI and cloud growth. SAP — SAP rose about 1% before the bell. BMO Capital Markets upgraded shares to outperform and lifted its price target, citing "high visibility" into bookings and revenue.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Infinera, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Nike — Nike, Trump Media & Technology, Nokia, JPMorgan, Realty Trust, SAP, BMO Capital Markets
Investors should look for companies in the third quarter that are on solid ground, both in their fundamental business and their stock price, according to Piper Sandler. The firm's yardsticks for quality fundamentals include free cash flow yield and positive earnings revisions. Piper Sandler's macro select model includes some of the big tech companies that have outperformed in recent years, in part due to their combination of solid balance sheets and strong growth. Two other stocks on the list with momentum are Chipotle Mexican Grill and Wingstop , up roughly 37% and 66%, respectively, in 2024. The company said in its first-quarter report that cash was up and debt was down compared with the same period a year ago.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, AMC Networks, Academy Sports Locations: Mexican
The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have rallied during the second quarter and are currently within 1% of their record highs. "It's great to see S & P and Nasdaq make new highs, but clearly something is not right if key barometers for risk are rolling over," Ginsberg wrote. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus among the biggest names in the stock market. These latest signs of weakness are part of the long-standing worry about the lack of market breadth . RSP YTD mountain The equal-weight S & P 500 is headed for a losing second quarter.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Russell, Ginsberg, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Wolfe Research, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Big Tech, RSP, Bears
Rivian Automotive — Shares of Rivian Automotive skyrocketed more than 40% after the electric vehicle company secured up to $5 billion in funding from Volkswagen Group. A so-called short squeeze added fuel to the gain as about 19% of the Rivian shares available for trading were sold short before this news, according to FactSet. Nvidia — The chip stock added more than 2%, building on a nearly 7% rebound during Tuesday's session. Aptiv — The automotive technology stock dropped 7% after Piper Sandler downgraded Aptiv to underweight from neutral and cut its price target. Robinhood — Shares added 3%.
Persons: Bosch, Mills, Aptiv, Piper Sandler, Campbell, Ken Goldman, Wolfe, Sarah Min, Lisa Han, Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox Organizations: Rivian Automotive, Volkswagen Group, FactSet, FedEx — FedEx, Whirlpool, Reuters, Southwest Airlines —, Nvidia, Citi Research, Rivian, Volkswagen, JPMorgan, United States Steel, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, Steel, Nippon Steel, Micron Technology Locations: Tuesday's
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: SolarEdge Technologies — Shares of the company tumbled more than 20% following the announcement that it will offer $300 million worth of convertible notes due 2029. — The stock plunged more than 7% after the company updated its earnings guidance for the full year on Monday after the bell. The wholesale pool supplies distributor expects full-year earnings between $11.04 and $11.44 per share. Carnival — Shares added nearly 8% after the cruise company posted a second-quarter earnings and revenue beat. Penn Entertainment — The casino operator and online gambling platform's stock fell 5% after Raymond James downgraded it to market perform from outperform.
Persons: Leslie's, LSEG, Raymond James, Enovix, Rivian, , Alex Harring, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange, Pool Corp, Carnival, Penn Entertainment, Airbus, Nvidia —, Novo Nordisk, Guggenheim, Spirit AeroSystems, Boeing, Bloomberg Locations: Singapore, France, China
Here are the stocks making headlines before Wall Street's opening bell on Tuesday. SolarEdge Technologies — The green energy stock fell more than 17% after announcing a new debt offering. SolarEdge said it will offer $300 million worth of convertible notes, due 2029. Pool Corp — Shares sank 12.4% after the wholesale pool supplies distributor revised full-year earnings guidance postmarket Monday. Enerpac Tool Group — The industrial supplies stock fell more than 9% after reporting sales declined year over year in the fiscal third quarter.
Persons: Wall, SolarEdge, Raymond James, Walt Disney — Goldman Sachs, , Alex Harring, Michelle Fox Theobald, Sarah Min Organizations: SolarEdge Technologies, Leslie's Inc, JPMorgan, Penn Entertainment, Disney, Microsoft, Xbox, Airbus — Locations: Singapore, France
UPS shares were unchanged in premarket trading. Planet Fitness — The budget-friendly gym chain climbed 3.1% after TD Cowen named the stock a top pick and raised its rating to buy from hold. Affirm — The buy-now-pay-later stock jumped 3.2% on the heels of Goldman Sachs' initiation at a buy rating. IBM — The legacy tech giant moved 1.4% higher after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating. Cinemark — Shares popped 3.3% after Roth MKM upgraded the American movie theater chain to buy from neutral, citing "meaningful box office improvement."
Persons: Eli Lilly — ResMed, Eli Lilly's, Eli Lilly, Jefferies, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Roth MKM, , Michelle Fox, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound Organizations: Coyote Logistics, UPS, RXO, Coyote, Nvidia, Carrier, Citi, Ferrari —, UBS, Anheuser, Busch InBev —, IBM
Nvidia 's furious rally is breaking new ground in stock chart analysis that even the dot-com bubble couldn't pull off, according to BTIG. "NVDA recently traded ~100% above its 200 DMA. In other words, NVDA is in a league of its own," the note said. To make another parallel to the dot-com bubble, Cisco also briefly passed Microsoft in market cap in March of 2000, according to Krinsky. Shares of Nvidia are now up more than 150% year to date, and its market cap is still over $3 trillion despite a Friday slump.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, NVDA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Microsoft Locations: U.S
Affirm — The buy now, pay later stock popped 10% after Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of the name at a buy rating. Roth MKM upgraded Cinemark to a buy from a neutral rating, saying that headwinds should soon shift to "very attractive tailwinds." Anheuser-Busch InBev — The brewing company's shares rose around 3% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral. Carrier Global — The heating and ventilation stock rose 3% on the heels of a Citi upgrade to buy from neutral. Energy stocks – A slate of energy names rose as crude oil futures jumped to start the last week of June.
Persons: Eli Lilly, tirzepatide, Eli Lilly's, ATTR, Goldman Sachs, Will Nance, Roth MKM, headwinds, Morgan Stanley, Cowen, Ferrari, Brent, SLB, Baker Hughes, — CNBC's Lisa Han, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin Organizations: Systems, Food and Drug Administration, Coyote Logistics, UPS, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Nvidia, Microsoft, Anheuser, Busch InBev, UBS, Busch, IBM, Ryder, Carrier, Citi, Ferrari —, Energy, West Texas Intermediate, APA Locations: U.S
Traders are gearing up for an increase in volatility around the November elections in the United States, according to one market indicator. Stacey Gilbert, CIO of Glenmede Investment Management, said that the futures market for the Cboe Volatility Index is showing a distortion around the November election. Vix futures are basically a way to bet on or hedge against where the index will be trading at the time of expiration. The expectation for volatility around this election is pretty sizable," Gilbert said. "It would stand to reason that the Vix, or volatility in general, would increase around then," he added.
Persons: Stacey Gilbert, Gilbert, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, it's, Clissold Organizations: Glenmede Investment Management, Republican, Democratic, Bank of America, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Republicans Locations: United States, U.S
The decline comes after the AI chipmaker on Tuesday briefly topped Microsoft as the most valuable public company. Nike — The athletic clothing maker moved 1% higher following an upgrade at Oppenheimer to outperform from market perform. Asana — Shares popped more than 3% after the software firm announced a $150 million share buyback plan. Gilead Sciences — The pharmaceutical stock rose more than 2.6%, building on a rally of 8.5% from the previous session. Delta Air Lines — The stock rose 0.7% following news Thursday that the airliner announced a quarterly dividend of 15 cents a share, a 50% increase from previous levels.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Gilead, LendingTree, Bernstein, Toni Sacconaghi, — CNBC's Brian Evans, Michelle Fox, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Sarepta Therapeutics, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Nike, Gilead Sciences, Bloomberg, Apple —, Air Lines Locations: U.S, Gilead
Trump Media & Technology Group — After former President Donald Trump's company said on Tuesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission had declared effective Trump Media's registration of additional shares, the stock dropped 13.5%. Super Micro Computer — Shares jumped 5% after Elon Musk said the company will help his AI firm, xAI, build a supercomputer . Winnebago reported $1.13 in adjusted earnings per share on $786 million of revenue for its fiscal third quarter. Commercial Metals — Shares gained 5.6% after the company reported a revenue beat for its third quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had forecasted $1.80 earnings per share and $1.65 billion in revenue.
Persons: lenacapavir, Donald Trump's, Elon Musk, Piper Sandler, Winnebago, FactSet, Heather Balsky, Jabil, LSEG, , Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound, Lisa Han Organizations: Accenture, Gilead Sciences, Trump Media & Technology, Securities and Exchange Commission, Trump, Darden, Garden, LongHorn, LSEG . Revenue, Winnebago Industries, Bank of America, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Metals, Revenue, KB
Nvidia 's furious rally to become the king of the megacap stocks has also put it above the entire stock market value of some of the world's largest economies. On Tuesday, Nvidia surpassed $3.3 trillion in market capitalization, moving it ahead of Microsoft as the biggest stock in the U.S. But its market cap had already raced ahead of the cumulative value for entire stock markets in Germany, France and the United Kingdom, measured individually and in U.S. dollars. Only India, Japan, China and the U.S. have stock markets bigger than Nvidia alone, according to Deutsche Bank. The rally has also fueled concerns about the concentration of the U.S. stock market in just a few technology names.
Persons: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Apple Locations: U.S, Germany, France, United Kingdom, India, Japan, China, OpenAI
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading: La-Z-Boy — Shares jumped more than 9% after La-Z-Boy's latest quarterly results beat expectations. The furniture company posted fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 95 cents per share on revenue of $554 million. Analysts polled by LSEG anticipated earnings of 70 cents per share on revenue of $516 million. Semiconductor stocks — Chip stocks were higher on Tuesday, adding to the outperformance seen in recent days. Lennar reported $3.45 in earnings per share on $8.77 billion of revenue.
Persons: , LSEG, Wells Fargo, Lennar, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound Organizations: Semiconductor, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, Nvidia, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Kroger, BMO Capital Markets
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