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Dollar pares gains on soft U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index pared gains on Friday after U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, raising expectations of an early U.S. rate cut. That led traders to add to bets for a rate cut in the coming months. Fed funds futures now imply a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders maintained their view that a March rate cut is likely even after consumer price inflation data on Thursday came in above economists' expectations. The dollar index was last up 0.19% at 102.40.
Persons: Steve Englander, Englander, Martin Luther King Jr, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, British, Global, Research, Standard Chartered Bank, Branch, Traders, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S, Yemen, America, Zealand, Iran, Red, Gaza
Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in December, providing a positive signal for inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI also was up 0.2%, in line with the estimate. For the full year, the final demand measure less food, energy and trade services rose 2.5% for all of 2023 after being up 4.7% in 2022. Markets initially reacted positively to the PPI release but turned lower through morning trading. PPI measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, while CPI gauges what consumers pay in the marketplace.
Persons: Dow Jones, Kurt Rankin, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, PNC, Diesel, Traders, Federal, Market, JPMorgan Locations: U.S
"The market seems to have gotten excited that the Fed's going to have to do more than what the Fed thinks in terms of rate cuts now. watch nowThere is certainly a wide gap between what the Fed has indicated in terms of rate cuts and what the market is expecting. It probably means that right now, the market needs to give back some of the rate cuts that they priced in." Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said this week that while she expects rate hikes could be done, she doesn't see the case yet for cuts. Still, Brusuelas thinks the market is too aggressive in pricing in six rate cuts.
Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Dow Jones, Jack McIntyre, McIntyre, they've, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Logan, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Richard Clarida, … There's, Clarida Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal, Brandywine Global Investment Management, Traders, Dallas, RSM Locations: Rosemead , California
Investors poured cash into these fixed income ETFs in 2023
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy set the tone for the fixed income world in 2023 – right down to which exchange traded funds investors picked to take advantage of higher interest rates. Bond yields have an inverse relationship to their prices, so that when prices decline, yields rise and vice versa. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) was another favorite of investors, with about $7.3 billion in net flows in 2023. Indeed, those strategies proved popular with investors in 2023, as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) were ETFs with the second and third highest net flows, per Morningstar.
Persons: It's, Paul Olmsted, Matthew Bartolini, Olmsted, Morningstar, , it's, BND, AGG Organizations: Investors, Bloomberg Finance, State Street Global Advisors, Morningstar, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, State, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, SGOV, SEC, Treasury, Fed, Vanguard, Bond Market, Core, Aggregate Bond Locations: SPDR Americas, Central
Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation data on Thursday for clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. But Fed expectations are likely to continue to drive dollar moves. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. If the data confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate it could boost expectations for a March rate cut, though if it comes in above expectations it could also reverse some of that pricing. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.33% at 102.55.
Persons: Bipan Rai, Kamal Sharma, steepening, Sharma Organizations: Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, Investment Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Asia, Bitcoin
Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.
Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington
December's jobs report showed employers added 216,000 positions for the month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payrolls to increase 170,000 and the unemployment rate to nudge higher to 3.8%. That increase in the "real" unemployment rate came as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline in job holders of 683,000 as the ranks of those working multiple jobs increased by 222,000. Major averages meandered through the day as markets reacted to a lower than expected reading from the ISM services gauge. The report showed that inflationary pressures, despite receding elsewhere, are still prevalent in the labor market.
Persons: downwardly, Dow Jones, Andrew Patterson Organizations: Labor Department, meandered, Treasury, Leisure, Federal Reserve, CME, Vanguard Locations: U.S
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD As for the "too far, too fast" argument, it's worth recalling that all the S & P 500 has done is nearly complete an almost-symmetrical two-year round trip. Ned Davis Research U.S. strategist Ed Clissold looked back at prior times the S & P 500 has gone more than a year without making a record high. This is always a tricky proposition – cash that leaves money markets to buy stocks leaves the seller of the stocks with cash. For one thing, $6 trillion is only about 12% of total U.S. equity market cap, near the lower end of its historical range. At the 2009 market low money markets were 50% of equity market cap.
Persons: , we've, Jason Goepfert, Jeff deGraaf, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jerome Powell, it's, Cash Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Timely, National Association of Active Investment, Ned Davis Research, Investment, of
Next year should be another good one for money market funds, even amid anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, experts predict. An estimated $950 billion has gone into money market funds so far this year, bringing the total net assets to $5.87 trillion as of Dec. 20, according to the Investment Company Institute . The Federal Reserve has indicated three rate cuts for 2024, which means the yields in short-term assets like money market funds and online savings accounts will follow suit. That's because money market funds are competing with bank savings accounts for cash, not necessarily equities and fixed income assets, he said. Certified financial planner Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning, would look at money market funds for cash you will need in six months or less.
Persons: Shelly Antoniewicz, Peter Crane, Crane, it's, Christine Benz, Cathy Curtis, Curtis, Kristy Akullian Organizations: Federal Reserve, Crane Data, Investment Company Institute, Federal, Crane, Morningstar, Benz, Curtis Financial, CNBC, BlackRock
A gauge the Federal Reserve uses for inflation rose slightly in November and edged closer to the central bank's goal. On a six-month basis, core PCE increased 1.9%, indicating that if current trends continue the Fed essentially has reached its goal. "The slowing in core inflation opens the door for fed funds rate cuts in 2024; the timing will depend on core PCE numbers over the next few months." Though policymakers watch both measures, they are more concerned with core prices as a longer-run inflation gauge. A 2.7% slide in energy prices and a 0.1% decrease in food helped hold back inflation for the month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter, Gus Faucher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Markets, PNC Financial Services, Fed, PCE, Federal, CNBC PRO
Job openings tumbled in October to their lowest in 2½ years, a sign the historically tight labor market could be loosening. The number was well below the 9.4 million estimate from Dow Jones and the lowest since March 2021. Federal Reserve policymakers watch the report, known as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, closely for signs of labor slack. While job openings fell dramatically, total hires only nudged lower while layoffs and separations were modestly higher. Declines in job openings were widespread by industry.
Persons: Dow Jones, Tuan Nguyen, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Fed, RSM, Committee, Traders, CNBC PRO Locations: U.S, October's
Rallies in the stock and bond markets could be undone by the very thing that seems to be underpinning the moves higher. The Fed relies on an amorphous group of indicators collectively known as "financial conditions" to help judge the state of play on policy. True to form, a Chicago Fed baromete r is showing financial conditions at their easiest since early February 2023. But I think they don't want to be premature, because they also know there's a risk of the economy restarting with the loosening of financial conditions. "That does not necessarily support the 'happy days are here again' everything-rally that we're currently seeing in the market."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Roger Ferguson, Powell, Jay Powell, Peter Boockvar, they're, Ferguson, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Dow Jones, Bleakley Financial, Chicago Fed, Committee, Traders, Fed, Group, CNBC
Expect to work a little harder for those fixed income returns in the new year. As a result, it may be time to start unwinding those big cash positions and adopt a longer-term mentality for fixed income investments. A runup in bond yields is accompanied by a decline in prices, and the two move inversely to one another. The sector "remains well positioned to maintain its high credit quality, driven by solid state credit quality and strong state financial support, despite soft enrollment trends," analyst Kathleen McNamara wrote last week. Consider dollar cost averaging into those longer-dated positions, incrementally building up exposure to intermediate duration bonds.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, Kathy Jones, Shannon Saccocia, Jones, Nicholos Venditti, Kathleen McNamara, Schwab's Jones, Barry McAlinden, Michael Bloom Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Bond, SEC, Muni Bond ETF, Allspring Global Investments, UBS
Morning Bid: Gold makes the running as oil fails to fire
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil failed to sustain an early rally that followed news of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Notably, oil prices lost early gains and Brent eased around 57 cents to $78.31 a barrel amid doubts that OPEC+ would be able to maintain planned output cuts, particularly by some African countries. At the same time, U.S. oil output is at record levels above 13 million barrels a day and rig counts are still rising. A commodity faring better is gold, which surged suddenly this morning to top $2,111 an ounce for the first time before paring the gains to $2,086. Yields on U.S. two-year notes rose almost 4 bps, but that follows a drop of 40 bps last week.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Wayne Cole, Treasuries, Yemen's, Brent, Bundesbank, Christine Lagarde, Bonds, Goldman Sachs, Anna Breman, Riksbank, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Bulls, ECB, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, Wayne, Red, U.S, Saudi Arabia
The benchmark index closed at 4,594.63, nearly 6 points above its previous closing high for 2023 set in late July. The S&P 500 is up over 19% year-to-date after posting its biggest monthly rise in over a year in November. The S&P 500 reached its previous 2023 closing high on July 31, also spurred in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence technology. The megacaps' outperformance has increased their combined weight to well over one-fourth of the entire S&P 500, meaning the stocks' moves have outsized influence on the benchmark index. The S&P 500 currently trades at roughly 19 times forward earnings estimates, compared to a historical average of 15.6 times.
Persons: Mike Segar, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Lewis Krauskopf, Noel Randewich, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Valley Bank, Citigroup, Microsoft, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Lower Manhattan, New York, U.S
Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, , Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Asia shares start Dec on cautious note, oil nurses losses
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.5% after a surge of 7.3% last month, the most since January. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - stood unchanged for October, while consumer spending also pulled back. Fed funds futures imply rate cuts of 115 basis points. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes slipped 3 basis points in Asia to 4.3264%, on top of a plunge of 52.2 basis points for the month. Two-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.674%.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, sharemarkets, HSI, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell's Q, Waller, Robert Carnell, Christopher Waller, Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Tyrone, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank . Regional, Federal, Traders, ING, Fed, South Korean, Philippine, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South
Traders' confidence was reinforced earlier this week when Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. SOFR FUTURESBond investors also look to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures to gauge expectations of Fed rate moves. The June 2024 SOFR futures have priced at least one Fed cut, while the probability of two 25-basis-point rate reductions was at 76%. An OIS transaction involves exchanging an overnight rate such as the federal funds rate for a fixed one. For instance, in a U.S. two-year OIS transaction, one party receives a fixed two-year rate in exchange for paying the fed funds rate daily over the next two years.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, It's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Alden Bentley, Paul Simao Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Dakota Wealth Management, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Atlanta
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. But Macklem also said "right now, it is not time to start thinking about cutting interest rates." Interest rate futures are pricing the first rate cut in March, earlier than the poll prediction. "Accompanying labour market weakness should put downward pressure on inflation and prompt the Bank of Canada to cut the policy rate around of the spring of 2024," they wrote. That was despite several government measures announced in the latest Fall Economic Statement to boost housing supply and help lenders dealing with homeowners at risk amid high interest rates.
Persons: Blair Gable, Macklem, It's, Avery Shenfeld, Robert Hogue, Sebastian Mintah, Mumal Rathore, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Reuters, BoC, U.S . Federal, Barclays, CIBC Capital Markets, of Canada, RBC, Desjardins, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, BENGALURU, stagnate
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates six times in 2024, according to ING Economics. AdvertisementAn economy that is showing clear signs of decelerating means the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least six times in 2024, according to a Thursday note from ING Economics. Knightley expects the interest rate cuts to extend into 2025 with at least four 25 basis point interest rate cuts. And it might not break if the Fed can successfully ease interest rates lower before the economy enters a recession. UBS expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points next year in response to a recession.
Persons: , James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Federal, ING Economics, Service, Reserve, ING, Fed, UBS Locations: 1,841k
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%. Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. I'm hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down."
Persons: Dow Jones, Stocks, Bonds, Bill Adams, John Williams, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Energy, Dow Jones, Treasury, Labor, Fed, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, . New York Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, European Central Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: ., New York
Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, , Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York
"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta
The U.S. economy is "back to normal" for the first time in two decades, but the market is getting ahead of the likely pace of interest rate cuts, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn. The central bank in September paused its historically aggressive monetary tightening cycle with the Fed funds rate target range at 5.25-5.5%, up from just 0.25-0.5% in March 2022. "You don't want to be early to leave when you're the last one to come to the party. "The economy will clearly turn down before the Fed had starts to cut interest rates, so I strongly believe that for the first half of '24, we will see no rate activity in the Fed. Maybe [in the third quarter], we'll start hearing rumblings of some forward guidance of lower rates."
Persons: Gary Cohn, Cohn —, Donald Trump, Cohn, CNBC's Dan Murphy Organizations: IBM, Federal Reserve, National Economic, Abu, Abu Dhabi Finance, Fed Locations: U.S, Abu Dhabi
Bill Ackman said in a Bloomberg podcast he expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. He said the US economy risks a sharp downturn if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon. AdvertisementBill Ackman expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the first quarter of next year. The Fed needs to cut interest rates soon to avoid a sharp downturn in the US economy, the billionaire investor said on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an effort to cool soaring inflation.
Persons: Bill Ackman, , David Rubenstein, That's, Ackman, Rubenstein, There's Organizations: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, Service, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Israel, Swiss
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