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☆ As natural gas prices tumble, new worries for U.S. shale patch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Liz Hampton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 9 (Reuters) - A 46% drop in natural gas prices this year is rippling across the U.S. shale patch, threatening to slow drilling and chill deal-making in a move unthinkable six months ago as global demand soared. Analysts are chopping their outlook for gas prices this year, and for production and earnings. Such moves were unfathomable six months ago as Russia reduced its gas flows to Europe and U.S. gas became a hot commodity. Analysts expect gas drilling rigs to fall beginning this month. Prices will remain around $2.50 per mmBtu this summer, down from an earlier $3.50 per mmBtu outlook, predicts energy technology firm Enverus.

☆ U.S. is 'absolutely' behind on supply chain independence from China, Biden advisor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowThe U.S. has some rapid catching up to do if it is to secure the reliability of its supply chain and its independence from competitors like China, a top White House advisor admitted this week. "We can't have a supply chain that is concentrated in any country, doesn't matter which country that is," he said. Workers transport soil containing rare earth elements for export at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 31, 2010. The Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have also highlighted the fragility of the global supply chain. Globally, China controls most of the market for processing and refining for cobalt, lithium, rare earths and other critical minerals."

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts the raw numbers for January (and every other month) to strip out these seasonal effects and focus on the underlying trend by applying a set of seasonal adjustment factors. The application of seasonal adjustment factors then transformed smaller-than-normal actual job losses into a reported job gain of 443,000 in the private sector. There were also reported employment increases in construction (25,000), manufacturing (19,000) and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (3,000). Labour hoarding probably exaggerated the strength of the jobs market in January 2023 and is likely to reverse in the next few months if economic growth continues to slow. There is a strong incentive to hold on to recently and expensively hired staff until the softening of the economy and the labour market is actually confirmed.

Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22. Chartbook: Europe gas stocks and pricesNorthwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout. But overall Europe’s gas inventories remain exceptionally high for the time of year, which has kept a lid on prices and spreads despite the drop in temperatures. Europe’s gas stocks at seasonal record high(Reuters, January 17, 2023)- Europe's gas prices slump to moderate storage build (Reuters, January 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Distillate inventories amounted to 118 million barrels on Jan. 27, which was 24 million barrels (-17% or -1.43 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average. The inventory deficit has narrowed from 31 million barrels (-22% or -2.05 standard deviations) on Oct. 7 (“Weekly petroleum status report”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Feb. 1). Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesBy contrast, distillate consumption has been restrained by high prices and the marked slowdown in the industrial economy. Growth in distillate consumption peaked in late 2021 and has been weakening steadily since then, with consumption down year-on-year in most months since April 2022. Related columns:- U.S. manufacturing is in recession (Reuters, February 1, 2023)- Recession now or later?

☆ Europe’s Answer to Biden’s Climate Bill Is Still Murky Green
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The European Union says the era of cheap fossil fuels is over and that a subsidy race has begun in green energy. But its plan to join the fray isn’t as decisive as Washington’s. On Wednesday, the European Commission launched its Green Deal Industrial Plan, a hotly anticipated response to the $369 billion of clean-energy funding in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The law, itself a response to Chinese industrial policy, provides generous tax breaks that should stimulate local manufacturing of green-energy technology and build out domestic infrastructure for renewables.

☆ Column: Europe needs France to get its nuclear act together in 2023: Maguire
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Gavin Maguire | Thomson Reuters | Gavin Maguire Is The Global Energy Transition Columnist. He Was Previously Asia Commodities | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LITTLETON, Colo., Feb 1 (Reuters) - A steep drop in France's nuclear power output in 2022 exacerbated Europe's power crisis by forcing French utilities to flip from net power exporters to importers just as Russia's invasion of Ukraine snarled energy markets across the continent. POWERING UPSo far in 2023, France's nuclear power output remains 17.5% below the average from 2020 and 2021, Refinitiv data shows, due in part to strikes against planned pension reforms for unionised workers. Even if average output remains below that previous target, any sustained increase in nuclear production from 2022 totals stands to have an impact on local power prices, as well as France's overall power import needs. For example, in December, some previously curtailed reactors resumed operations and that boosted national nuclear output by 40% from the average of the previous eight months, Refinitiv data shows. France seasonal nuclear power outputReporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - China’s manufacturing activity has started to increase as the coronavirus epidemic wanes, after the country abandoned its suppression strategy that severely disrupted the economy with a series of city lockdowns. The NBS manufacturing index appears low, barely above the theoretical 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction, but that may understate the increase in activity. But China’s manufacturing index has been generally lower and less variable than the comparable indices published for the United States and the euro zone by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global respectively. China's index has a standard deviation of 1.59 points compared with 3.99 points for the United States and 4.88 for the euro zone. If that timeline holds, manufacturing and freight transportation activity is likely to increase over the next two months.

But the wave of buying spread beyond crude to encompass U.S. gasoline (+11 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+8 million) and European gas oil (+7 million). Chartbook: Investor petroleum positionsThe net position across all six contracts climbed to 575 million barrels (47th percentile for all weeks since 2013), up from 343 million barrels (11th percentile) on Dec. 13. Hedge funds became more bullish about Brent than at any time since May 2019, before the pandemic erupted and upended the oil industry. In the oil market, investors are increasingly sure continued growth will cause supplies to tighten and send prices higher. Unenviable alternatives for 2023 (Reuters, Jan. 26)- Investors surge back into oil on rising economic optimism (Reuters, Jan. 23)- Bullish oil investors look beyond China's COVID wave (Reuters, Jan. 3)- Investors abandon bullish oil positions as recession nears (Reuters, Dec. 12)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - India’s power generators have struggled to rebuild coal stocks so far this winter because consumption is rising faster than the rail network can deliver more fuel from the mines. Fuel stocks are only slightly higher than this time last year, when inadequate coal supplies coupled with higher than normal temperatures in March and April contributed to widespread blackouts. But stocks have increased by only 2.3 days since September 2022, leaving generators poorly positioned to meet higher demand when temperatures climb from March and April onwards. As a result, the amount of coal consumed by power generators has exceeded the amount arriving from domestic mines by between 100,000 and 300,000 tonnes per day. Resolving railway bottlenecks and accelerating imports will be critical to ensuring there is enough fuel in the pre-monsoon (March-May) and post-monsoon (September-October) periods when power supplies are most stretched.

☆ Goldman predicts clean hydrogen will be a $1 trillion market. Here's how to play it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In the race to reduce global carbon emissions to zero, clean hydrogen is increasingly expected to be a winner. As the costs of renewable power falls, green hydrogen is becoming a better solution to decarbonization, Goldman said. How to play it Goldman said buy-rated First Solar is among the key players in the generation of green hydrogen. Experts say the tax credit makes nuclear hydrogen highly competitive with fossil fuel produced hydrogen, as companies can look to make clean hydrogen without losing any money. Goldman identified both Air Products & Chemicals and Linde as integrated clean hydrogen supply chain players.

The first scenario is consistent with a recession starting in early 2023, the second with a recession deferred until late 2023 or early 2024 when inflation and interest rate rises induce a slowdown. CYCLICAL EXTREMESDuring a typical economic cycle, output growth alternates between expansions well above the long-term trend rate and contractions well below trend; growth is close to trend only for relatively short periods. Distillate inventories are unlikely to be replenished without a recession or at least a significant mid-cycle slowdown to curb consumption. UNPALATABLE CHOICESIn the first scenario, the global economy tips into recession, cutting distillate consumption, boosting inventories and lowering prices. From this starting position, an early recession, or persistent inflation followed by a recession, are much more likely outcomes than a soft landing in 2023.

☆ U.S. oil & gas M&A hit 17-year low; big firms dominate deals-report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Liz Hampton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oil companies are also grappling with less productive wells, with some viewing asset purchases as a way to keep oil and gas flowing. Larger companies with better inventories tend to have a premium built into their stock, giving them more buying power, Enverus wrote. "It's a market where the rich get richer," said Andrew Dittmar, a director at Enverus who focuses on mergers and acquisitions. Publicly traded U.S. shale firm Diamondback Energy (FANG.O) added some 500 drilling locations to its portfolio by spending $3 billion to purchase Lario Oil & Gas and Firebird Energy during the fourth quarter. Diamondback's added inventory was "more of a luxury than a necessity," Dittmar said of those deals.

REUTERS/StringerLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - China’s exports of refined petroleum products, especially diesel, surged in the final two months of 2022, relieving some of the global shortage caused by unusually low exports since the middle of 2021. China’s exports were below normal for 16 months from July 2021 through October 2022 with a cumulative shortfall relative to the previous trend of 21 million tonnes or 167 million barrels. The downturn was concentrated in diesel with a cumulative shortfall of around 17 million tonnes or 128 million barrels (“Monthly bulletin”, GAC, January 18). Diesel exports accelerated to a near-record 2.8 million tonnes in December, from just 1.1 million tonnes in October, narrowing the deficit since mid-2021 to less than 16 million tonnes or 117 million barrels. Related columns:- China’s diesel exports recover but not enough to reverse global shortage (Reuters, November 9)- Diesel’s gloomy message for the global economy (Reuters, October 14)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Bill Gates is ‘very optimistic’ about the future: ‘Better to be born 20 years from now...than any time in the past’
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Tom Huddleston Jr. | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bill Gates spends a lot of his time sounding the alarm over existential global threats, like climate change and future pandemics. Yet the billionaire Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist says he's still "very optimistic" about humanity's future on Earth. Even with challenges facing current and future generations, Gates says anyone born in the next few decades will be better off than people born at any previous point in history. Gates asked, noting that the average lifespan for human beings has vastly improved over the past three centuries. "So, the scope of human innovation over time ... is a phenomenal story."

☆ Baker Hughes misses profit estimate amid shortages, inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 23 (Reuters) - Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) missed a fourth-quarter profit estimate on Monday as the oilfield services firm navigated challenges including component shortages, supply chain inflation and disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many oilfield firms have also been facing workforce shortages, inflation and supply chain constraints. Baker Hughes restructured its business last year into two segments, one focused on oilfield equipment and services and another on industrial and energy technology. Total company revenues of $5.9 billion also missed Wall Street estimates of $6.1 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Still, analysts were upbeat on the firm's adjusted EBITDA of $947 million, which beat forecasts of around $925 million.

The wave of buying was led by crude (+78 million barrels), especially Brent (+55 million), with smaller buying in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+23 million). The increase in investors’ Brent positions was the largest since August 2018 and the sixth-largest out of 514 weeks since the time series began in 2013. Chartbook: Investors' oil positionsThe sudden turn around seems to have been driven by a combination of low initial positioning and a sudden increase in confidence about the outlook for the global economy and oil consumption. Ironically, the biggest risk to the economy and oil consumption is that the economic revival rekindles inflationary pressures and forces the major central banks to persist in raising interest rates longer and higher. Related columns:- Bullishness on oil ebbs at start of 2023 (Reuters, Jan. 16)- Hedge fund petroleum buying paused over year end (Reuters, Jan. 9)- Bullish oil investors look beyond China's COVID wave (Reuters, Jan. 3)- Investors abandon bullish oil positions as recession nears (Reuters, Dec. 12)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ E.U. outlines plan for clean tech future boosted by subsidies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

“We know that we have a small window to invest in clean tech and innovation to gain leadership before the fossil fuel economy becomes obsolete,” von der Leyen said. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 17, 2023. “We have a compelling need to make this net-zero transition without creating new dependencies,” von der Leyen said. already waved through 672 billion euros ($727.5 billion) in aid to allow member states to deal with the impact of the war in Ukraine, any E.U. member states, European Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager wrote last week that the U.S. plan “risks luring some of our E.U.

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Northwest Europe is half-way through the winter heating season and gas inventories are at a record high following an extended period of exceptionally mild temperatures since the middle of December. Market-driven high prices have significantly reduced gas and electricity consumption by major industrial customers and more modestly by residential and commercial users. By Dec. 19, Frankfurt had experienced a total of 675 heating degree days, very close to the long-term average of 682. Between Dec. 19 and Jan. 15, however, the region experienced an exceptional and extended period of much warmer temperatures that reduced heating demand significantly. Cumulative heating demand so far this winter was 20% below the long-term seasonal average by Jan. 15 compared with a 5% deficit by Dec. 19.

[1/2] Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, in Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S., March 24, 2016. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 17 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on Jan. 10. Investors sold a total of 29 million barrels in the two most recent weeks, after purchasing 103 million barrels in the two weeks before, according to position records published by regulators and exchanges. The net position in middle distillates is 60 million barrels (48th percentile) but the net position in crude is just 301 million (9th percentile). Sluggish output growth from U.S. shale producers, sanctions on Russia's oil exports, China's eventual emergence from the coronavirus pandemic and depleted diesel stocks are all contributing to eventual bullishness about prices.

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Brent oil prices are expected to remain around $90 per barrel throughout the next five years, according to my eighth annual survey of energy market professionals. In this year's survey, prices are forecast to average $87 in 2023, down from $99 realised in 2022, when prices surged following Russia's invasion and sanctions imposed in response by the United States and European Union. Forecasts for 2023 are tightly clustered, with half of respondents expecting the average price to lie between $80 and $95, and more than 90% expecting the average to lie between $70 and $105. Prices are expected to continue averaging around $90 from 2024 to 2027, with a slight downward skew in forecasts later in the period. Among survey respondents, 22% are directly involved in oil and gas production (exploration, drilling, production, refining, distribution, marketing and oilfield services).

Working gas stocks in underground storage were 293 billion cubic feet (-9%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average on Dec. 30 compared with a deficit of 71 billion cubic feet (-2%) on Dec. 16. Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesTraders no longer fear inventories will run critically low this winter; they are instead preparing to deal with a large surplus that will need to be stored in the summer of 2023. The market moved from a record inventory depletion (-995 billion cubic feet) in January 2022 to a record seasonal accumulation (+442 billion cubic feet) in October 2022. Exports increased by 2,001 billion cubic feet (+54%), mostly in the form of increased LNG exports of 1,418 billion cubic feet (+79%). Related columns:- U.S. gas exports squeeze domestic supply (Reuters, Sept. 29)- U.S. power producers are consuming near-record volumes of gas (Reuters, Aug. 2)- U.S. gas prices climb as stocks fail to rebuild fast enough (Reuters, July 29)- U.S. gas production must accelerate to meet LNG export demand (Reuters, June 1)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ IEA says clean energy manufacturing set for substantial growth as world enters 'new industrial age'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The world's second largest economy is a major force in technologies crucial to the planned energy transition. "The related clean energy manufacturing jobs would more than double from 6 million today to nearly 14 million by 2030," the IEA said, "and further rapid industrial and employment growth is expected in the following decades as transitions progress." Its report highlighted "potentially risky levels of concentration in clean energy supply chains — both for the manufacturing of technologies and the materials on which they rely." China, it said, was dominating both the production and trade of "most clean energy technologies." "Meanwhile, a great deal of the mining for critical minerals is concentrated in a small number of countries," it added.

☆ Here are analysts' favorite tech stocks for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The tech sector was hit hard last year as worries about economic weakness and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike path to tame inflation weighed on companies. In particular, rising interest rates hurt the present value of the future stream of earnings for tech stocks. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), a fund that corresponds with the tech sector of the S & P 500, dropped 28% in 2022. Still, there are some bright spots in the sector where Wall Street analysts see growth ahead. The stock gained nearly 45% in 2022 and could rise another 43% this year, according to the consensus price target from Wall Street analysts.

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Rallying oil prices ran out of steam just before the end of the year as investors turned cautious after two weeks of heavy petroleum buying. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 12 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts over the seven days ending Jan. 3. Light selling emerged after funds had purchased 103 million barrels over the preceding two weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But global distillate inventories remain severely depleted after an unprecedented drawdown between the middle of 2020 and the middle of 2022. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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