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The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double the target in May (more on inflation shortly). Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. Then on Thursday came Producer Price Index data, which measures the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers. That data showed annual wholesale inflation cooled last month to the lowest level in nearly three years. And June of last year was monumental: Annual inflation soared to 9.1%, the highest in more than 40 years largely because of record-high energy costs,” she wrote.
Persons: Michael Scott, Price, , Mary Daly, “ It’s, Alicia Wallace, Freddie Mac, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, can’t, Dimon, , — CNN’s Bryan Mena, Matt Egan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Reserve, ” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan, JPMorgan, CNN Locations: New York, ” San Francisco
New York CNN —Bank of America was fined $250 million this week by US federal regulators for allegedly harming customers by double-dipping on fees, withholding credit card rewards and opening fake accounts. Of those fines, $100 million is set to go directly to consumers who were impacted by the bank’s alleged wrongdoing. People are generally bad at keeping or knowing how to access relatively recent bank records, said Harvey Rosenfield, founder of Consumer Watchdog, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group. It’s unlikely the average customer saved copies of their bank records or credit reports for over a decade, he said. As part of the agreement Bank of America settled with the CFPB, it is also required to identify consumers who were harmed.
Persons: they’re, you’re, you’ve, there’s, Bank of America’s, Harvey Rosenfield, didn’t, CFPB Organizations: New, New York CNN — Bank of America, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, CNN, Bank of America, Bank of, Consumer Watchdog, Bank, of America Locations: New York
New York CNN —Despite promising signs that inflation is abating, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the fight against price increases isn’t over. But she cautioned, “It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.”The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Wednesday showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double its 2% target in May. Daly acknowledged there’s a risk the Fed will raise rates higher than what’s ultimately needed to get inflation down to 2%. Daly, who will be voting on interest rates at the Fed’s meetings next year, said she wouldn’t necessarily consider cutting rates once inflation hits 2%.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, “ It’s, Daly, there’s, “ can’t, , Daly’s, James Bullard Organizations: New, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, San, St
New York CNN —St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard announced Thursday he is stepping down from his position in mid-August. “It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years,” Bullard said in a statement released Thursday afternoon. With the exception of the president of New York Fed, four regional bank presidents from the remaining 11 branches serve one-year terms on the Federal Open Market Committee on a rotating basis. Kathleen O’Neill Paese, the St. Louis Fed’s first vice president and chief operating officer, was confirmed Thursday by the bank’s board and assumed Bullard’s duties “immediately” in the interim, according to the statement. The St. Louis Fed said it is hiring “a national executive search firm” to help identify Bullard’s permanent successor.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis Fed, ” Bullard, Bullard, Purdue University’s Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Jerome Powell, won’t, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis Fed’s, , Bullard’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Fed, New York Fed, Federal, Seven, Governor Locations: New York, St
New York CNN —Jamie Dimon isn’t sold on “Bidenomics.”“I’d be careful about that,” said Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in reference to president Joe Biden’s economic theory that rejects “trickle-down” policies in favor of focusing on the middle class. In an interview with The Economist released Tuesday, Dimon classified Bidenomics largely as industrial policy – a strategy that specifically encourages or subsidizes particular industries, such as manufacturing. He said he’s in favor of some industrial policy lately, for the first time in his life, but only as it relates to national security and competitiveness. Although Dimon said he’s worried about a possible second Donald Trump presidential term, he said he doesn’t intend to run for office. At least for now, though, the “big storm clouds” Dimon warned about last year only “partially hit,” he said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon isn’t, I’d, , Dimon, Joe Biden’s, Dimon’s, , Bidenomics, ” Dimon, he’s, Donald Trump Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase Locations: New York
But last month’s inflation report was an outlier — for the first time, the declines weren’t immediately preceded by a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. One month doesn’t dictate a trendFed Chair Jerome Powell has said it time and time again: One month’s data is not indicative of a trend. Powell repeatedly stresses that the Fed takes a data-dependent approach to interest rate decisions. In Schoenholtz’s view, the Fed should continue to hike interest rates even though inflation slowed down sharply in June despite the central bank holding rates steady. If the Fed waits too long to raise interest rates, it could risk its credibility, leading to a persistently higher price level that’s harder for the Fed to crack down on.
Persons: weren’t, Jerome Powell, , Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell, , Wendy Edelberg, they’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Federal, CPI, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, Fed, Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, CNN Locations: New York, Kermit Schoenholtz , New
On the job market, indications like the latest jobs report — which showed that fewer Americans are getting hired — can be interpreted as bad news. As of the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, there were 1.6 jobs available for every job seeker — or more than 3 million job openings than people searching for jobs. What’s good news for investorsInvestors are searching for signs that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking interest rates, or better yet, cut them. When the Fed raises interest rates it raises the cost of doing business for companies who rely on outside funding. That’s because interest rates on loans tend to rise in tandem with increases in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate.
Persons: , It’s, that’s, , Sean Snaith, Snaith, Jerome Powell, Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Institute for Economic, University of Central, Labor, Survey, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, University of Central Florida, Kermit Schoenholtz , New
It’s not just in the United States, either. Coming up: Two major measures of inflation in the United States are out this week — the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and Producer Price Index on Thursday. On Friday morning, earnings reports for the second quarter kick off with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi and BlackRock all reporting. Her Many Horses joined Wells Fargo in 2018 as senior vice president in middle market banking to focus on rebuilding the bank’s Native American banking effort. Wells Fargo Native American Banking is the leading provider of capital and financial services to Native American and Alaska Native markets, according to a statement from the company.
Persons: they’re, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, , Albert Edwards, Edwards, it’s, Lael Brainard, Price, Michael Barr, Barr, ” Barr, Elisabeth Buchwald, Wells Fargo, Dawson, “ Dawson, Ruth Jacks, Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, Societe, National Economic Council, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, BlackRock, Rosebud Sioux, Wells, Wells Fargo Commercial Banking, American Banking Locations: New York, United States, Wells Fargo, Wells, Dawson, Rosebud, South Dakota, American, Alaska
Banks with at least $100 billion in assets would be subject to similar regulation that banks with $700 billion in assets currently face, under Barr’s proposal. These regulations would force banks to hold an additional two percentage points of capital, or an additional $2 of capital for every $100 of risk-weighted assets, Barr said. “Our recent experience shows that even banks [with at least $100 billion in assets] can cause stress that spreads to other institutions and threatens financial stability,” Barr in remarks at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Requiring banks to hold more capital could help mitigate risks that arise when banks are under stress. Barr on Fed’s fight against inflationIn addition to discussing bank regulation, Barr also spoke about the Fed’s plans to get inflation down.
Persons: Michael Barr, Banks, Barr, , ” Barr, SVB, Kevin Fromer, , Dennis Kelleher Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Center, Valley Bank, Financial Services, Wall, Better, CNN Locations: New York
Washington, DC CNN —Silicon Valley Bank failed because regulators were far too slow to take action, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said Monday in her first extended remarks about the collapse. SVB operated in Daly’s district before the regional bank’s stunningly rapid failure in March, but she noted she doesn’t have a supervising role. Daly said the supervisors at the San Francisco Fed simply report issues to the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is ultimately responsible for fixing any regulatory issues. “My job is to support the supervision that the vice chair of supervision has set out, so how do I do that? The possibility of a rate hike in September remains unclear, though Powell said he wouldn’t take consecutive rate hikes off the table.
Persons: Mary Daly, SVB, ” Daly, Michael Barr, Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Daly, Jerome Powell, Warren, , Barr, it’s, It’s, Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, , Raphael Bostic, ” Bostic, ” — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: DC CNN, Valley Bank, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Brookings Institution, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Democratic, San Francisco Fed, Fed’s, of Governors, Fed, San Francisco, Cleveland Fed, University of California, Atlanta Fed, trickling, Cobb County Chamber of Commerce Locations: Washington, Daly’s district, Washington ,, San Francisco Fed, San Diego, Cobb County, Atlanta
But after 10 rate hikes, the housing market — traditionally one of the most interest-rate-sensitive areas of the economy — is anything but predictable. Mortgage rates then continued to climb in tandem with the Fed’s hikes until November, when mortgage rates peaked at 7.08%, despite four subsequent rate hikes since then. Higher mortgage rates have reduced home inventoryIn theory, when mortgage rates go up, home prices should fall since it raises the cost of homeownership, thereby reducing demand. That’s partly because the higher mortgage rates that came after the Fed hiked rates created a major lock-in effect, said Kiefer. “That tells the crux of the story for why the housing market seems a bit odd right now,” Divounguy said.
Persons: , Orphe Divounguy, Banks, Freddie Mac, Charles Dougherty, Dougherty, , Len Kiefer, ” Kiefer, Kiefer, Divounguy, Zillow’s Divounguy, ” Divounguy Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, National Association of Realtors, , CNN, homebuying Locations: New York, That’s, Wells Fargo, Realtor.com
President Joe Biden speaks during a stop at a solar manufacturing company that's part of his "Bidenomics" rollout on Thursday, July 6 in West Columbia, S.C. Meg Kinnard/APPresident Joe Biden reacted to the latest jobs report numbers Friday morning, saying that they are evidence of “Bidenomics in action.”“We are seeing stable and steady growth. That’s Bidenomics—growing the economy by creating jobs, lowering costs for hardworking families, and making smart investments in America,” Biden said in the statement. The US added 209,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, a cooler than expected report and the lowest monthly gain since December 2020. However, with all three major US indexes falling Friday morning, investors are clearly concerned that the cooling of the economy may not be enough to stop the Federal Reserve from once again raising rates.
Persons: Joe Biden, Meg Kinnard, ” Biden Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Locations: West Columbia, America
For example, while most airlines will book you on the next available flight, it may not depart for days. If you decide to switch airlines, be ready to pay a pretty penny — if you can even find a flight out. Using travel insurance to recoup costsTravel insurance purchases are up 9% for trips this 4th of July compared to last year, according to data shared with CNN by InsureMyTrip, a travel insurance marketplace. A lot of travel policies will cover expenses you incur from a flight that was canceled due to weather conditions, said Meghan Walch, director of product for InsureMyTrip. In most cases you must pay for those expenses upfront and file a claim later to receive reimbursement, Walch told CNN.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Meghan Walch, , , Walch Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, InsureMyTrip, Allianz Travel Insurance Locations: New York
When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, , they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, , Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, , Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California,
And while Biden’s growing list of Republican challengers differ on many issues, when it comes to the economy, they’re in agreement that Biden failed. In addition, a tight labor market has left many small businesses with ongoing hiring difficulties. Here’s what Biden can take credit for – and what he can’t. In other aspects, the labor market certainly had a boost from Biden’s fiscal policies. Since then, the American workforce has consistently outpaced the pre-pandemic workforce.
Persons: Joe Biden, , ” Biden, Biden, Jerome Powell, , Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, It’s, it’s, let’s, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, , Congress, American, Manufacturers, Treasury Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Republicans, Fed, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Biden, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Washington, Chicago, American, United States, Ukraine, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
That’s because no stress test scenario could perfectly predict the conditions that would cause a bank to collapse. And besides, that’s not the purpose of stress tests, said Covas, a former Fed economist who developed some of the central bank’s early stress tests. The test scenarios were designed before the banking crisisFed officials update the stress test scenarios each year to capture the latest vulnerabilities in the economy. It’s a misconception that “if no bank fails these stress tests are not useful,” or the tests were too easy, Covas said. “You really don’t need a stress test to figure out that SVB had some significant issues,” he added.
Persons: Francisco Covas, that’s, Covas, , , João Granja, they’ve, SVB Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Bank Policy Institute, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, CNN Locations: New York, Silicon
New York CNN —US inflation could hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in 2025, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNN in an exclusive interview Tuesday. Already, consumers are cutting back on spending to a level that is consistent with 2% inflation, Moynihan said, citing Bank of America customer data. The mild recession, Moynihan said, would likely come “the first part of next year” and not the latter part of this year, which he previously predicted. He also said he believes the unemployment rate likely won’t exceed 5%. Last month’s jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, despite impressive job gains.
Persons: Brian Moynihan, , ” Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, Moynihan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of America, CNN Locations: New York, that’s
Even though inflation is slowing in many countries after more than a year of interest rate hikes, it remains above the 2% level many central banks are targeting. Raising interest rates is the primary tool central bankers have at their disposal to get inflation down. That’s why the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at its June meeting after 10 consecutive hikes since last March. It’s harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high. That’s because research shows that inflation, if unaddressed, could become even more sticky and harder for central banks to control with rate hikes.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, don’t, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, it’s, Michael Bordo, , Organizations: New, New York CNN, ” Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, CNN Locations: New York
New York CNN —The Securities and Exchange Commission fined JPMorgan Chase $4 million for mistakenly deleting 47 million emails, many of which the regulator was trying to access as part of multiple probes. SEC regulations required JPMorgan (JPM) to retain emails for a 36-month period. Upon discovery, JPMorgan reported the deletions to the SEC in 2020. “Because the deleted records are unrecoverable, it is unknown – and unknowable – how the lost records may have affected the regulatory investigations,” the SEC order stated. “JPMorgan takes its record-keeping obligations seriously,” said Veronica Navarro, who heads JPMorgan’s corporate communications division.
Persons: , , Veronica Navarro Organizations: New, New York CNN, Securities, Exchange Commission, JPMorgan Chase, SEC, JPMorgan Locations: New York
Inflation vs. deflationInflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services across an entire economy are rising over a given period of time. When inflation rises, it means you’ll have to spend more money to buy the same goods and services as you used to. For instance, goods and services sold in the United States cost 9.1% more last June compared to June 2021. That means global central bankers don’t actually want goods and services to get cheaper. If you think prices will go down in the future, you’re probably going to delay making a lot of purchases today.
Persons: don’t, you’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bank of England, European Central Bank, US Federal Locations: New York, China, United States, Japan
Month after month, the jobs report data exceeds economists’ expectations. The Fed will also be paying close attention to fresh data on job openings and wages. Powell has consistently said he wants to see the number of job openings per unemployed person come down. Job openings fell to the lowest level in nearly two years. But some of that progress was erased in April, when job openings unexpectedly rose, pushing the ratio to 1.79, according to initial estimates from the BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Persons: Jerome Powell, we’ve, , Powell, That’s, Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, CNN Locations: New York
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the rate hike pause will give officials more time to evaluate the effects rate hikes have had on the economy so far. But he left the door open for the possibility of more rate hikes at future meetings. “Every time they relaxed rates inflation would ratchet up,” said Michael Bordo, an economics professor and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers University. Many economists agree the Fed is not confronting the extreme dilemma Paul Volcker faced during his time as Fed Chair from 1979 to 1987. The Fed’s pause “doesn’t necessarily have adverse implications for inflation,” he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Michael Bordo, Paul Volcker, , Donald Kohn, Powell, Bordo, George Selgin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, Fed, CNN, Cato Institute Locations: New York
But what does the Fed mean when it talks about labor markets and their impact on inflation? What’s happening: At its most basic level, labor productivity is a measure of the value of the goods and services produced by a company compared with the amount of labor used to produce that output. Labor productivity decreased 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. The silver lining: The good news is technological innovations typically drive upturns in productivity and AI could be such an innovation. Absolutely not,” Yellen said, echoing the joint statement leaders from the Group of Seven made at last month’s summit in Japan.
Persons: Lisa Shalett, , Lisa Cook, Joseph Brusuelas, Sundar Pichai, aren’t, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Blumenthal, , Doug McMillon, Roger McNamee, Steven Spielberg, Vito Corleone, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, Elisabeth Buchwald, Yellen, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Fed, Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, McKinsey Global Institute, Federal, RSM US, of America, Google, Yale School, Management’s, Leadership Institute, Walmart, Technology, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Inter, American Development Bank group’s, African Development Fund, IMF Locations: New York, United States, Michigan, Connecticut, China, Japan
New York CNN —US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to ask Congress to lend more money to developing countries to counter China’s growing influence, according to a copy of her prepared remarks viewed by CNN. In addition to increasing lending to other International Monetary Fund programs, Yellen intends to tell lawmakers that the Biden Administration wants to boost involvement in the Inter-American Development Bank group’s private-sector investment fund and the African Development Fund. “These investments will bolster our engagement in these regions at a time of geopolitical competition,” Yellen intends to say in her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. Such last-minute action “hurts our global leadership and credibility on the world stage,” Yellen is set to tell lawmakers on Tuesday. Fitch Ratings warned that it is still considering downgrading US debt despite the last-minute deal that Congress passed.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Biden, ” Yellen, , Yellen’s, , , Jessie Yeung Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, International Monetary Fund, Biden Administration, Inter, American Development Bank group’s, African Development Fund, Financial, IMF, World Bank, Fitch Locations: New York, China, Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya, Turkey, United States, Washington
New York CNN —Ahead of May’s closely watched Consumer Price Index, set to be released Tuesday morning, economists are expecting yet another month of smaller price increases. No individual spending category accounted for more than 40% of overall inflation last year. For instance, the percentage of housing expenses that contributed to overall inflation nearly doubled to 64% from 33% a year ago. That accounted for 19% of overall inflation last April. That helped lower inflation overall.
Persons: Refinitiv, Anthony Behar, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, AP, Pantheon, Gas Locations: New York, seeping, New York City, Queens , NY
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