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☆ US worker pay gains picked up in the first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

Washington, DC CNN —Compensation for US workers picked up in the first three months of the year, showing that a major source of inflationary pressure persists. The Employment Cost Index, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that workers were paid 1.2% more in wages and benefits in the first quarter from the prior three-month period. That’s up from analysts’ expectations of 1.1%. This story is developing and will be updated.

☆ Mortgage rates tick up for the second week in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates inched up again this week. Even though rates ticked up for the second week in a row, with the rate of inflation decelerating, mortgage rates should gently decline over the course of the rest of this year, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Still, despite slightly higher rates last week, purchase applications increased last week from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Buyers who need to buy this spring are going ahead with their mortgage applications, said Broeksmit.

☆ Pending home sales fell last month for the first time since November
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The pending sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, dropped by 5.2% from February to March. Month over month, contract signings fell in three US regions, but increased slightly in the South. Pending home sales retreated in all four regions compared to one year ago. “The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. With mortgage rates projected to fall even more the next year, NAR forecast that sales will then jump by 15.4% in 2024, to 5.26 million.

☆ Changes are coming to some mortgage fees next month
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Broadly, the fees will go down for many with lower credit scores and will increase for many with higher credit scores. But that doesn’t mean people with lower credit scores will pay less than those with higher credit scores. The changes mean that people with higher credit scores will still pay less based on lower risk to the lenders, but having a lower credit score will now come with less of a penalty. For those with higher credit scores, more price tiers have been put in place, which in some cases may increases fees. The difference in assessed fees is about $4,000 more for a buyer with a 640 credit score than for a buyer with a 740 credit score, based on a $300,000 mortgage.

☆ Americans are getting worried about the job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans become more pessimistic about the job market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which measures attitudes toward the economy and the job market, fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and marking the lowest level since July 2022. “Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”That matches government figures showing the labor market has begun to show some cracks. Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, the smallest gain in two years, and job openings fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021.

☆ New home sales rise for the fourth month in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —New home sales rose in March, climbing for the fourth month in a row as mortgage rates eased and buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the tight inventory of existing homes for sale. Sales of new single‐family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000, up from a revised 623,000 in February. After climbing through much of February, mortgage rates were as high as 6.73% March. In a bit of a setback for buyers, prices of new homes rose from February, the report showed. This is a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales pace, down from 8.2 months of supply last month.

☆ US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping seven months of declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping a seven-month streak of month-over-month declines, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. The national composite index now stands 4.9% below its June 2022 peak. Miami again had the biggest year-over-year price gain in February, followed by Tampa, Florida; and Atlanta. Miami had a year-over-year price increase of 10.8%, followed by Tampa with a 7.7% increase and Atlanta with an 6.6% increase. In January, four West Coast cities — San Francisco; Seattle; San Diego; and Portland, Oregon — saw year-over-year price declines.

☆ Layoffs loom in the US manufacturing sector as backlogs shrink
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

And surveys from the Institute for Supply Management show that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for several months, while fewer manufacturers report an increase in backlogs. “We’re only seeing a gradual pullback in hiring for manufacturing, even as new demand slows, because these backlogs are still helping sustain activity,” she said. Manufacturing saw job losses in February for the first time in 21 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were additional manufacturing job losses in the following month. However, while manufacturing layoffs are expected, they are likely to be limited.

☆ Government watchdogs propose tougher scrutiny of nonbank financial companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —In response to last month’s turbulence in the banking industry, financial regulators on Friday proposed a more comprehensive approach in identifying and addressing threats to financial stability, including closer scrutiny of nonbank financial companies. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new framework proposed by the Financial Stability Oversight Council that outlines the vulnerabilities in the financial system and the tools regulators can use to address those risks. The proposal also reverses guidance issued in 2019 that made it more difficult for nonbank financial companies, such as hedge funds and insurers, to be designated as systemically important institutions. “It is an important preventative tool to address systemic risks that may arise from a nonbank financial firm whose activities or distress could threaten the financial system.”FSOC has the power to designate nonbank financial firms as systemically important institutions if their failures pose a threat to financial stability, which would place those firms under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. Firms would be able to request a hearing if FSOC makes a proposed designation.

☆ Janet Yellen says national security may come at a cost in US-China relationship
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —The United States will safeguard its national security, even if it comes at an economic cost to its relationship with China, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday. The federal government will address any national security concerns through export controls, sanctions and by restricting foreign investments, Yellen said. In a speech at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Yellen outlined three objectives of the US relationship with China: prioritizing national security and defending human rights, promoting a healthy and fair economic relationship with China and cooperating with China to address global issues. Yellen’s remarks come at a time when tensions with China remain high, a few months after a Chinese spy balloon flew across the continental United States. “Even though these policies may have economic impacts, they are driven by straightforward national security considerations,” said Yellen, a former Federal Reserve Chair.

☆ 5.5% may be a magic number for mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year, reaching as high as 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac’s average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The survey found that 5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point. A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Looking at forecasts of mortgage rates for the rest of the second quarter of 2023, no major forecast is even predicting rates under 6%. Furthermore, 5.5% is lower than the historical average for mortgage rates.

☆ Mortgage rates climb to the highest level in a month
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates rose this week, after five weeks of falling. “For the first time in over a month, mortgage rates moved up due to shifting market expectations,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “Last week’s jump in mortgage rates led to a pullback in mortgage applications, as homebuyers remain sensitive to rate movements,” said Bob Broeksmit, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

☆ Home sales fell in March, reversing gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US home sales fell in March, after a turnaround in February that followed a full year of declining home sales due to surging mortgage rates, according to a National Association of Realtors report released Thursday. Sales of existing homes in March — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — dropped 2.4% from February. Mortgage rates remain volatile — so far this year average rates have ranged from 6.09% to 6.73%. “Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. Many potential sellers feel “locked in” by their ultra-low existing mortgage rates that they bought or refinanced into over the past few years.

☆ US airlines about to be hit with ‘tsunami’ of pilot retirements
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Greg Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington DC CNN —The US airline industry is about to be hit with a “tsunami of pilot retirements” that will further the nation’s pilot shortage, limiting flight availability for passengers and putting upward pressure on fares, an industry group told Congress Wednesday. Black’s group represents the regional carriers which provide feeder service for the larger airlines such as American, United (UAL)and Delta (DAL). But the union representing most US airline pilots urged Congress against changing pilot qualification and training standards in an attempt to address the pilot shortage, saying some ideas would compromise safety. The Regional Airline Association, representing carriers that connect major cities to smaller regional airports, noted that the airlines are not the only destination for pilots with that qualification and warned of a significant pilot shortage that will get worse with a “tsunami” of retirements. Senior airline pilots frequently fly international routes, but international rules have an age 65 limit.

☆ Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report captures the effects of last month’s banking turbulence on businesses and banks themselves. “Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types,” the Fed said in its periodic compilation of business survey responses, known as the Beige Book. A tightening in credit conditions was perhaps the biggest change reflected in the latest Beige Book report. While those concerns have largely subsided, many economists feared it would make it harder to access credit. Other banks in the Richmond Fed’s district reported higher inflows of deposits following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the report said.

☆ New home starts pull back in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, was down 17.2% from a year ago, according to data released Thursday by the Census Bureau. After surging in February following five consecutive months of falling, March housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.420 million, down from the revised February estimate of 1.432 million. Single‐family housing starts in March rose 2.7% from the revised February figure, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000. Housing starts had big drops in May and July last year, when spiking mortgage rates pushed many prospective home buyers to the sidelines. Starts bounced back slightly in August, but fell through January.

☆ Black homeowners had the smallest wealth gains over the past decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Middle-income homeowners gained $122,100 in wealth, with homes appreciating 68% over the past decade, according to the report. The study considered a household low-income if it earned an income no greater than 80% of the area median income. Middle-income homeowners are those with incomes over than 80% of the area’s median income but less than 200%. Black homeowners experienced the smallest wealth gains among any other racial or ethnic group, accumulating $115,000 in wealth in the last decade. Along with the wealth gains accumulated over the past decade, homeowners also reduced their debt by 21%.

☆ Four out of the five US metro areas with the lowest unemployment are in Florida. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Four out of the five US metropolitan areas with the lowest unemployment rates are in Florida, thanks to the state’s growing population, robust tourism activity and increased business investment. Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando all had unemployment rates below 2.7% that month. Florida was also the fastest growing state as a percentage during that period, the first time it has notched that top spot since 1957. “Florida is pro-cyclical, so when unemployment is low, it’s going to be even lower in Florida and vice versa,” Pintea said. Some studies have argued that generous unemployment programs keep unemployment higher for longer by disincentivizing workers from searching for a new job.

☆ Retail spending fell in March as consumers pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: 1 min

Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers fell in March as consumers pulled back amid recessionary fears fueled by the banking crisis. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation, fell by 1% in March from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That was steeper than an expected 0.4% decline, according to Refinitiv, and above the revised 0.2% decline in the prior month. This story is developing and will be updated.

☆ Premarket stocks: Inflation just reached an inflection point
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

According to some experts, inflation rates have reached an inflection point and painful interest rate hikes could soon ease. Some economists believe that this level — around 5% — is the point at which inflation is no longer considered an emergency issue. That means the Federal Reserve could feel less pressure to quickly stabilize prices through aggressive, economically painful interest rate hikes. “The Fed … will insist that their job is done when inflation hits 2%,” Ball told Before the Bell on Wednesday. The US Treasury, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation all intervened to ensure bank customers could access all their money and to attempt to stave off future bank runs.

☆ Manhattan median rents hit another high in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

A one bedroom apartment had a median rent of $4,150, up 9.6% from last year, while a two bedroom apartment had a median rent of $5,680, up 18.3% from a year ago. A studio apartment rents for a median price of $3,190, up 16% from last year. “It isn’t a rocket ship,” he said of median rents. “It is just creeping higher and every so often it creeps high enough to reach a new high.”The opposite of rising rents is not necessarily falling rents, it is stabilizing rents, Miller said. New leases in March were up 15.4% from last year, according to the report, and leasing activity jumped 20.5% from February.

in March, they said the banking crisis heightened that forecast to a recession. Policymakers at the Fed voted unanimously last month for a smaller interest rate increase after turbulence in the banking industry set off fears of bank runs, according to the minutes. The Fed’s latest interest rate increase brought the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the highest level since September 2007. “Such a tightening in financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate tightening,” Powell said, stressing that the banking industry remained sound. SVB’s collapse was the second-largest bank failure in US history and underpins the worst banking crisis since the Great Recession.

☆ OPEC’s surprise production cut complicates the Fed’s fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Energy prices across the globe surged last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, fueling global inflation just as the world’s major economies were beginning to rebalance after the pandemic. Now, with oil prices surging once again, headline inflation could remain elevated for longer or even rise. Even core inflation could be affectedWhile Fed officials consider multiple economic metrics in order to inform their decision making, one of their main points of focus is core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. However, higher oil prices can eventually push up core prices if they remain elevated for long enough. However, he acknowledged the eventual impact of higher prices.

☆ Where jobs were gained and lost in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Government employers and the professional and business services industry also hired at a solid clip last month. Strongest gainsLeisure and hospitality employers added 72,000 jobs last month, the most of any industry. Health care businesses added 34,000 jobs and employment in the business services sector — which includes many white-collar jobs such as accountants, engineers, and consultants — grew by 39,000. The construction industry lost 9,000 jobs in March, the first decline in construction employment in more than a year and the largest job loss in the sector since May 2021 -— though still a drop of just under 1.1%. But while new residential construction has slowed over the past year, construction jobs have held up, mostly because of a backlog in construction projects, Swonk said.

☆ Mortgage rates fall for the fourth week in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Homebuyers benefited from another week of falling mortgage rates, with the average rate dropping for the fourth week in a row, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.28% in the week ending April 6, down from 6.32% the week before. “Mortgage rates continue to trend down entering the traditional spring homebuying season,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, which ticked up this week, but the spread between the two narrowed as mortgage rates moved down and the market continued to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty.”“Potential buyers continue to face elevated mortgage rates and home prices, making buying less accessible than a year ago,” said Jones. Pent-up housing demand is evident with every gain in affordability, whether it be softening prices or lower mortgage rates.”

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