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☆ Fed's Goolsbee says mild U.S. recession feasible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is certainly feasible as the Federal Reserve's steep rate-hikes over the past year filters fully through the economy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday, as he again urged the central bank to be prudent on policy. "There is no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the US and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He was responding to a question about a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession later this year. "The data show that and we've raised rates almost 500 basis points in a year," he added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview, also on Friday, the Fed could "hit the mark and hold" with one more rate hike.

☆ Dollar eases as US inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ Gold ticks up as U.S. inflation data fuels bets for rate hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, as milder-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted bets that the Federal Reserve might raise rates just once more before pausing. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,031.40. Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% last month, compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase, after advancing 0.4% in February. Recession concerns are "allowing gold prices to ride on its safe-haven status ... while technical conditions are revealing some moderation in upward momentum on recent highs," IG's Yeap said. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $25.39 per ounce, platinum lost 0.3% to $1,011.86 and palladium dipped 0.5% to $1,452.08.

☆ Dollar eases as U.S. inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An image of the U.S. dollar bill and a euro coinThe dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after cooler-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data lifted risk sentiment and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve will be done with its monetary tightening after hiking one last time next month. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, eased 0.03% to 101.44, hovering around a one week low of 101.40 after sinking 0.6% overnight. "While disinflation trends continue and broadened across headline, core and supercore measures, the CPI report is hardly an all clear on inflation," strategists at Saxo Markets said. Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, said the CPI data and the minutes provided ample fodder for those reading the Fed tea leaves, noting that inflation showed welcome, but not overwhelming progress. The Japanese yen weakened 0.04% to 133.20 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2486, up 0.04% on the day.

☆ Gold ticks up as US inflation data fuels bets for rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold advances for third consecutive sessionMarkets pricing in 25-bp rate hike in MayApril 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data spurred bets that the Federal Reserve might raise rates once more next month before pausing hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,016.99 per ounce, as of 0332 GMT. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase, after advancing 0.4% in February. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Recession concerns are "allowing gold prices to ride on its safe-haven status... while technical conditions are revealing some moderation in upward momentum on recent highs," IG's Yeap added.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Several Federal Reserve policymakers last month considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of two regional banks and a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession. But even they concluded high inflation remained so paramount they pressed on with a rate hike despite the risk. Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking sector stress projected a "mild recession" starting later this year, with a recovery in 2024-2025, the minutes showed. "Some participants noted ...they would have considered a 50-basis-point increase ... in the absence of the recent developments in the banking sector," the minutes said. "Participants observed that inflation remained much too high and that the labor market remained too tight; as a result they anticipated that some additional policy firming may be appropriate," the minutes said.

☆ Dollar drops as inflation cools more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest year-on-year gain since May 2021. Economists at Goldman Sachs said after the data that they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates in June. The dollar index fell 0.60% on the day to 101.49 and is down from around 102.11 before the data. The dollar dipped to 133.13 Japanese yen , down 0.47% on the day, from around 133.85 before the data. Retail sales data on Friday will be analyzed next for how consumer spending is being affected by higher prices.

However, the major benchmarks shed gains quickly, briefly turning lower, as investors focused on underlying inflation pressures which rose in line with economists' estimates. US inflation, Fed rates and MarketsRichmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also poured cold water on market optimism after flagging that there was still time before inflation falls back to the Fed's 2% goal. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said there was "more work to do" on Fed rate hikes. Among the 11 major S&P sectors, consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) was the worst hit, while materials (.SPLRC) and healthcare (.SPXHC) were the top gainers. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

☆ San Francisco Fed leader Daly likely not a major player in SVB saga, officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"She was not in the chain of command," one former Fed bank president told CNBC. "Supervisory action taken by the San Francisco Fed staff would have been cleared by Washington." Daly and Fed board officials declined to comment for this report. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly reacts at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council Town Hall, Los Angeles, California, U.S., October 15, 2019. A review of what went wrong will likely point more heavily to Washington, its supervisory bureaucracy and the board leadership than to San Francisco.

[1/2] An employee holds the door open at the Silicon Valley Bank branch office in downtown San Francisco, California, U.S., March 13, 2023. Supervision of large banks like SVB, which was the 16th biggest U.S. bank at the time of its failure, is a shared responsibility of bank examiners employed by the regional Fed bank and Fed Board staff in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week he wants to identify "what went wrong here". Bank examiners at San Francisco Fed had flagged escalating problems at the Santa Clara-based bank suggesting issues with its ability to meet short-term cash needs like depositor withdrawals. As San Francisco Fed chair, Mehran headed the search committee that hired Daly for the top job at the bank in 2018.

Two of the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents resigned as a result of that scandal and Powell launched a fast overhaul of the central bank's ethics rules as criticism mounted. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime Powell opponent, saying she had lost confidence as well in San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, whose bank was responsible for supervising SVB. Still, turbulence in financial markets and the banking system is likely to feature prominently in Powell's post-meeting news conference, which is scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT). The U.S. central bank will release its policy statement and new economic projections from Fed officials at 2 p.m. EDT. Market expectations are tilted heavily towards the Fed approving another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase, which would lift its benchmark overnight interest rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.75%-5.00% range.

☆ US Sen. Scott pushes for new Fed inspector general, slams Fed over bank regulation,
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( David Morgan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Senator Rick Scott said on Monday he will introduce legislation to create an independent inspector general to oversee the Federal Reserve, as he called the U.S. central bank "unable or unwilling to properly regulate" banks in a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "I am proposing legislation to establish a presidentially-appointed and Senate-confirmed inspector general for the Federal Reserve," Scott told Powell in the letter. The Federal Reserve is responsible for supervising - monitoring, inspecting and examining - certain financial institutions to ensure that they comply with rules and regulations, and that they operate in a safe and sound manner. Scott's legislation stems from concern in Congress that the Federal Reserve's current inspector general is not independent enough to serve as a check on the central bank. Scott also urged the Fed chief to use the central bank's policy meeting this week to examine the bank failures and identify accountable Fed personnel.

☆ At a high-stakes meeting in Moscow, China has to decide whether Putin's failure in Ukraine means it's time to cross a red line
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Some analysts believe China is poised to escalate its support for Russian in Ukraine. China's Xi Jinping at a welcoming ceremony at Moscow's Vnukovo airport on March 20, 2023. China has sought to portray the war in Ukraine as a result of Western meddling, citing the massive influx of Western weaponry to Ukraine's armed forces. But China may now be preparing so cross the same line and offer weapons of its own to Putin's Russia. If that dynamic continues, Ward said China may decide to risk the wrath of the West and openly provide lethal aid.

☆ I rushed from bank to bank with my infant daughter when SVB collapsed to figure out how my startup could make payroll on time
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Sindhu Sundar | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sent Dispatch Goods cofounder Lindsey Hoell on a race to find alternatives. Her team and investors navigated the logistical chaos of making sure the company made payroll. Dispatch Goods, a Silicon Valley Bank customer, provides reusable packaging to meal and grocery delivery companies. But by the time I got back from opening that account, the Silicon Valley Bank site was just completely bogged down with other people trying to do the same thing. We got up Friday morning and drove down to Silicon Valley Bank's Menlo Park location.

☆ Tech pressure, Yellen everywhere: How Washington scrambled as SVB collapsed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Yellen heads to the White House, Brainard meets with her staff and holds Zoom calls in her wood-paneled office in the West Wing. Treasury staff hustle to get Yellen on CBS News' "Face the Nation" program on Sunday, in an attempt to reassure markets. White House officials draft news releases with various scenarios, uncertain until shortly before 6 p.m. if an acquisition can still happen. As he leaves Delaware to return to the White House, Biden tells reporters he will make a statement on Monday. Treasury and White House officials reach out to members of Congress and their staffs throughout the evening to explain the plan, with discussions continuing into Monday.

☆ Former Warner Bros. Co-CEO Lists California Ranch for $24.95 Million
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( E.B. Solomont | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A California ranch owned by entertainment mogul Bob Daly and his wife, songwriter Carole Bayer Sager, is coming on the market for $24.95 million. Known as Oaktree Ranch, the roughly 19-acre Calabasas property includes a main residence, a stable, a caretaker’s house, a pool and a tennis court, according to marketing materials. “People buy a ranch in Montana,” Mr. Daly said, but “I didn’t want to fly anywhere.” He keeps a pony, miniature horses, goats, and dozens of chickens and pigeons on the ranch, he said.

March 6 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.07%, to end at 4,048.36 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 12.59 points, or 0.11%, to 11,676.41. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer.

☆ Here's why hawkish Powell testimony might not derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today, all eyes will be on central bank chairman Jerome Powell as he begins two days of hearings on Capitol Hill. Chairman of the Federal Reserve nominee Jerome Powell testifies during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee November 28, 2017 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Fed policy aside, the stock market has marched higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 gaining about 6% over the last nine weeks. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, as investors await the two-day testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test.

☆ Premarket stocks: What to watch as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is on the hot seat this week as he testifies before Congress. Powell will have some good news to report — when he last testified before Congress in June, the inflation rate was at 40-year-highs, nearing 9%. Investors will also be on edge — hawkish language or even an aggressive tone from Powell could lead to market volatility. Some Fed officials agree. Economists, business leaders, investors and even Fed officials aren’t really sure about what’s happening.

Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. And with potential Fed rate hikes their key concern, Monday's data had already dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 92 new lows.

Shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O), last up 2%, were the biggest boost for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "buy" rating. Correlation between S&P 500 and 2-year Treasury bond yieldsMonday's data likely dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Six of 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 74 new highs and 71 new lows.

☆ Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful market awaits Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Coming off its best weekly performance since start of the year, the continent-wide STOXX might aim for another record high as traders await January retail sales data for the Eurozone later in the day. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued over the weekend, with San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly the latest to sound a warning on the inflationary threat. The market largely expects Powell to be hawkish this week but given his testimony comes before the jobs report is released, he will likely aim to keep all options open. Over in China, the country's leadership set a 5% target for economic growth this year, which analysts called conservative and pragmatic, as they kicked off the annual session of the National People's Congress. In the corporate world, Italian state lender CDP has bid for the fixed-line network of former phone monopoly Telecom Italia, rivalling an offering from U.S. firm KKR.

☆ Gold eases as traders fret about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices ticked lower on Monday as central banks indicated further interest rate hikes to tame stubbornly high inflation, diminishing bullion's appeal as a hedge against price increases. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,853.99 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT, after climbing to its highest since Feb. 15 on Friday. Interest rate hikes to contain high inflation discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Friday he could see U.S. rates in the 5.5%-5.75% range. Spot silver firmed 0.1% to $21.27 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to $974.36 and palladium was down 0.2% at $1,449.82.

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