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☆ Fed policymakers call for further rate hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Howard Schneider | Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.

☆ Dow plunges 600 points as Fed officials say more rate hikes are needed to keep pulling inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks tumbled after hawkish talk on rates from two Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester each see the need for rates to rise to 5% or beyond. The Dow plunged 600 points, and the S&P 500 ended lower for a second straight day. The S&P 500 finished in the red for a second straight day, and none of its 11 sectors moved higher. Stocks may finish 2023 with a positive return, with the S&P 500 potentially landing at 4,275, said Hainlin.

☆ Gold nudges lower as Fed members bat for higher interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices held steady near the key psychological level of $1,800 per ounce on Monday, supported by a pullback in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Gold prices turned negative on Wednesday, erasing gains made on weak U.S. economic data yet staying above the $1,900 level, as key members of the Federal Reserve signaled their intent to keep pushing interest rates higher to combat inflation. The dollar pared losses from near multi-month lows and held steady, making gold less attractive for other currency holders. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,904.84 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. Earlier in the day, U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in December as the costs of energy products and food declined, offering evidence that inflation was slowing.

☆ The global rally in stocks that's kicked off 2023 may prove to be 'head fake' as it's too soon to assume inflation is receding, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock-market rally at the start of 2023 faces risks from still-elevated inflation, UBS Global Wealth Management said. Central bankers are monitoring core prices, which rose in the euro area and the US in December. "The possibility that core inflation is sticker than expected remains a risk for markets." In the US, core prices increased by 0.3% as monthly shelter costs drove higher by 0.8%. "While the strong start to the year is welcome and we believe more risk-tolerant investors can start to anticipate an inflection point in 2023, we advise against complacency," Haefele wrote.

"I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the meeting how much to do." The Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Investors expect the Fed to lift that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its Jan. 31 -Feb. 1 meeting. Several Fed officials have expressed support for slowing to quarter-percentage-point rate increases so as not to slow the labor market more than necessary. The answer may in part be found in the latest "Beige Book" report published by the Fed on Wednesday.

☆ Insana: Signs of slowing inflation emerge, and the Fed now risks doing too much
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Certainly, Friday's inflation data, included in the personal income and spending report, showed a marked deceleration in so-called personal consumption expenditure inflation. Over the past five months, many measures of inflation have fallen more quickly than forecast, including those most closely watched by the Federal Reserve. It now risks doing too much and pushing the U.S. economy into an entirely unnecessary recession next year. That comes at a time when seasonal and historical patterns — like the presidential cycle — favor a positive stock market performance in 2023. First, as was the case in 2021, U.S. population growth was abysmal this year, rising only 0.4%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

☆ New Cleveland Fed data points to easing shelter inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

According to the bank, the year-over-year change in the index for new renters stood at a 6.03% rise in the third quarter, decelerating from the 11.88% year-over-year change seen the prior quarter. The first-quarter year-over-year change in the index was also strong at 11.53%. The Cleveland Fed data gives fresh hope that moderating inflation trends seen in recent data will continue. The Fed is raising rates aggressively to help lower the highest levels of inflation seen in decades, delivering a half percentage point increase last week, while projecting more increases into next year. At the press conference following the Fed meeting, central bank leader Jerome Powell said he sees the rental price surge process resolving itself slowly.

☆ Fed's Mester sees rates rising more than most policy makers have forecast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she believes the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates higher than the level most policy makers cited in their Fed forecasts this week. "We need to continue to bring up interest rates into a restrictive stance," Mester said. Mester has been a voting member of the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee this year but will not hold that role next year. Mester said recent inflation data pointing to moderating price increases is "good news." Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Leslie Adler and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

☆ U.S. Fed policy now more hawkish than policy rules suggest is needed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

This estimate is under the current 3.75% to 4% federal funds rate setting. The rules used in the Cleveland Fed report offer a suggested setting for monetary policy based on different factors, such as inflation and economic activity. Fed officials have long said that while they pay attention to rules, monetary policy cannot run on autopilot and that judgment is key. The Fed does not use a rule officially, but some look to these benchmarks to judge whether monetary policy has been set properly. Monetary policy is likely to be tighter than those settings, at least for next year.

☆ The stock market could soar to new records in another 1982-style vertical rally as inflation continues to ease, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could rise abruptly and cause the S&P 500 to hit 4,400-4,500 by the end of the year, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Lee also noted that inflation was being fueled by several transitory pressures, such as supply chain issues and "revenge" spending. In 1982, the S&P 500 rebounded so sharply that in just four months it recovered from a 27-month bear market, he pointed out in a note on Tuesday. In his view, it could cause the S&P 500 to rally to 4,400 to 4,500 by the end of the year — a 12% rise from current levels. He's previously said the S&P 500 could rally to another all-time high of 4800 by the end of the year, before revising that prediction downward.

Dow component (.DJI) Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA.O) rose 1.9% after Cowen & Co upgraded the drug distributor stock, citing its healthcare services business push. Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N) soared 9.4%, rising the most among S&P 500 (.SPX) components after forecasting a smaller-than-expected drop in annual sales. Energy (.SPNY) led gains among the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes, bouncing off four-week lows by adding 2%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.70-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.12-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 19 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 49 new highs and 122 new lows.

SummarySummary Companies Best Buy up, sees smaller annual sales dropMedtronic down, lowers FY profit outlookTesla attempts to recoup losses post slumpFutures up: Dow 0.44%, S&P 0.49%, Nasdaq 0.40%Nov 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Tuesday, with gains in shares of Walgreens and Best Buy helping investors assuage worries around the economic fallout of stricter COVID-19 curbs in China. Leading gains among S&P 500 (.SPX) components trading before the bell, Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N) jumped 9.1% after forecasting a smaller-than-expected drop in annual sales ahead of the crucial holiday season. Dow component (.DJI) Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA.O) rose 1.7% after Cowen & Co upgraded the drug distributor stock, citing its healthcare services business push. ET, Dow e-minis were up 148 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 19.25 points, or 0.49%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 46 points, or 0.4%. Analysts expect thin trading volumes as markets will be shut on Thursday for Thanksgiving holiday and will remain open for half day on Friday.

Restrictions in Beijing and elsewhere tightened further on Tuesday, though currency traders seemed to think the previous day's moves were sufficient. In Europe on Tuesday, data from the European Central Bank showed the euro zone's current account deficit narrowed in September. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell to a new two-year low of $15,479 on Monday, another victim of Monday's rush to the dollar, and also amid jitters about the health of crypto broker Genesis. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on November 11. Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; editing by Kim Coghill, Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.

"What's going on in China is going to take centre stage," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. MUFG analysts noted that more cautious remarks from Fed officials were also been a factor in the dollar losing some momentum on Tuesday. The major factor driving dollar moves in recent months has been market expectations of how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise rates. The dollar fell 0.5% on the offshore yuan to 7.1412, having gained 0.7% overnight. The lending unit suspended redemptions last week, citing fallout from the collapse of FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on Nov 11.

☆ Dollar pauses climb; China COVID fears mount
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan gained 0.3% to 7.1574 per dollar in Asia trade, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. "It could just be a consolidation phase after yesterday's pretty big move up," said Capurso of the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen last traded 0.2% higher at 141.79 per dollar, after slumping more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar in the previous session. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields."

☆ Dollar steadies as China COVID fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a surge in COVID cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields." "Fed comments remained in line with the recent slant of rhetoric," said economists at ING in a note.

☆ Dollar steadies as China Covid fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar pared some of its strong overnight gains on Tuesday after investors flocked to the safe-haven currency on nerves over China's Covid flare ups, though cautious risk sentiment kept the greenback in demand. China's capital warned on Monday that it was facing its most severe test of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a surge in Covid cases sparking fresh restriction measures. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% higher at 7.1665 per dollar in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after falling more than 0.7% overnight. The Japanese yen slumped more than 1% to the weaker side of 142 per dollar overnight and last traded 142.01. "It's more like a cork in the ocean, subject to risk aversion as well as movements in 10-year Treasury yields ."

☆ Gold ticks up as dollar pauses advance; focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,740.56 per ounce by 0033 GMT. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.2% to 906.06 tons on Monday. Spot silver advanced 0.4% to $20.92 per ounce, platinum also rose 0.3% to $985.30, while palladium added 0.6% to $1,877.14.

☆ What Cramer is watching Tuesday — Nasdaq tough year, seasonal oil strength, P&G looking good
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Citi lowers DVN price target by $2 pe share to $78; keeps buy rating. Piper Sandler cuts Club holding Amazon (AMZN) price target to $119 per share from $125. Honeywell (HON), also a Club stock, is an underappreciated tech franchise, JPMorgan says. Zoom Video (ZM) catches multiple price target cuts on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Wall Street slips as concerns rise of stricter China COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. casino operators with businesses in China including Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.O), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS.N), MGM Resorts International (MGM.N) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd all fell at least 2%. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. Energy was the only major S&P 500 sector eying gains for the year, surging around 63%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.60-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 220 new lows.

☆ Fed nearing a slowdown in the pace of rate increases, says Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed nearing a slowdown in the pace of rate increases, says Cleveland Fed President Loretta MesterCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's funds rate entering a restrictive stance, looking to the economy for inflation indicators and nearing a different cadence in Fed tightening.

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Monday evening
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures are little changed Monday night as investors worry about the prospect of China reinstating pandemic restrictions. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6 points and was near the flatline. S&P 500 futures were flat while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.1%. Expect appearances from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Economic reports due out include the Philadelphia Fed's nonmanufacturing business outlook survey and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.

☆ Fed's Mester says she supports smaller rate hike in December
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve can downshift to smaller interest rate hike increments from next month as it fine-tunes its policy actions to help bring down high inflation while keeping the economy humming, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Monday. I don't have a problem with that, I do think that's very appropriate," Mester said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "But I do think we're going to have to let the economy tell us going forward what pace we have to be at." Investors overwhelmingly expect a rate increase of 50 basis points at the Fed's next policy meeting on Dec. 13-14. "Right now my forecast is that we're going to see some real, good progress on inflation next year," Mester said.

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