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Spot gold was down 0.6% to $1,927.69 per ounce by 12:49 p.m. EDT (1649 GMT). Jitters about global growth, particularly in China and the euro zone, caused the safe-haven dollar to hit multi-month highs against a basket of currencies, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "The global growth slowdown story will eventually prove to be a positive for gold and that would only come once the market becomes more skeptical about the US recession risks." Silver shed 1.5% to $23.60 per ounce, logging its biggest daily drop in a month. Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Edward Moya, Christopher Waller, Harshit Verma, Shinjini Ganguli, Paul Simao Organizations: Waller, Data, U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: China, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Governor Christopher Waller: Job market is beginning to softenChristopher Waller, Federal Reserve governor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Waller's thoughts on the latest batch of economic data, what made Waller comfortable with core PCE data, and how the U.S. economy lands from inflation.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Gold retreats as growth risks drive safe-haven bids to U.S. dollar
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold slipped to a one-week low on Tuesday on rising bond yields and as investors opted for the U.S. dollar to hedge against global growth concerns. Spot gold declined 0.6% to $1,926.49 per ounce. Jitters about global growth, particularly in China and the Euro zone, caused rival safe-haven dollar to hit multi-month highs against a basket of currencies, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "The global growth slowdown story will eventually prove to be a positive for gold and that would only come once the market becomes more skeptical about the US recession risks." Silver shed 1.1% to $23.70 per ounce, logging its biggest daily drop in a month.
Persons: Gold, Edward Moya, Christopher Waller, Otunuga Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: China
US stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday as a spike in oil prices reignited inflation fears. If inflation reaccelerates, it could force the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes. Fed Governor Chris Waller said recent economic data suggests the Fed can "proceed carefully" with further rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures are currently pricing in no more interest rate hikes for this cycle and a potential interest rate cut by May 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are awaiting more Fedspeak later this week to ascertain whether more interest rate hikes in store.
Persons: Chris Waller, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, CNBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday that the recent round of strong economic data will buy the central bank some time as it decides whether additional interest rate hikes are needed to control inflation. "The biggest thing is just inflation," Waller said. "That depends on the data," Waller said when asked whether the rate increases can stop. Markets are assigning a near certainty to the chances that the Fed skips a rate rise at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. "It's not obvious that we're in real danger of doing a lot of damage to the job market, even if we raise rates one more time."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, We've, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Group
U.S. dollar rises on global growth worries; Aussie down
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar rose to a near six-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as jitters over global growth, particularly in China, caused investors to flock to the safe-haven U.S. currency. The Aussie dollar slumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady. "Worries are on the rise about a China and Europe-led slowdown in global growth. The euro was down 0.69% after hitting a near 3-month low against the dollar at $1.07225. A deteriorating global growth picture sent the pound to a 12-week low against the dollar after a survey showed business activity in Britain contracted last month.
Persons: Shane Oliver, Joe Manimbo, Christopher Waller, Waller, Convera's Manimbo, bitcoin Organizations: AMP, Reserve Bank of, Fed, Federal, U.S, Financial, Aussie Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Reserve Bank of Australia, Europe, Washington, U.S, Britain
The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 2.3% of nonfarm payroll workers quit their jobs in July, down from a rate as high as 3% during the pandemic-driven "Great Resignation." The hiring rate last month hit its lowest point since April 2020. The JOLTS data for July "are moderating back to either pre-pandemic levels or levels that we have not seen in quite some time. Because the 401(k) data tends to capture higher-paying jobs, slowed hiring in that cohort could be particularly relevant to the Fed's inflation outlook. Data later this week will provide an updated view on inflation as well as for hiring and wages in August.
Persons: Fiona Greig, Greig, Christopher Waller, Beveridge, Oren Klachkin, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Reuters, Vanguard, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conference, Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: U.S, joblessness
Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected "a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation" through late next year. Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly. Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed's initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove "transitory."
Persons: Brent Meyer, Meyer, Quincy Krosby, they've, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta Fed's, Fed, CPI, San Francisco Fed, LPL, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco
What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.
Persons: , it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
What’s ahead this week for Wall Street and the economy
  + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Case Shiller house price index for May and consumer confidence for July from the Conference Board. Earnings reports from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms, Mattel, Stellantis and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Keurig Dr Pepper, Royal Caribbean, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines and Hershey. Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June, Employment Cost Index for the second quarter and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July. Earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Smith, Powell, Christopher Waller, , Dustin Thackeray, Tesla, Chris Isidore, , Case, Dr Pepper Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Fed, Traders, Rockland Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Crewe Advisors, Nasdaq, Netflix, Safety, Health Administration, doesn’t, Biden Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Ryanair, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, General Motors, Daniels, Midland, Verizon, PacWest, Boeing, Mattel, Honeywell, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, University of Michigan, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Rockland, American, United States, PacWest Bank, Royal Caribbean
Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.
Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly
While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S
While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S
Fed Chair Powell has said the Fed still has more work to do, and he himself hasn’t ruled out back-to-back rate hikes. But he also suggested that the Fed prefers to get rate hikes over with as soon as possible. The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to raise its key federal funds rate later this month after it paused in June after 10 straight rate hikes. If core inflation continues to moderate only slightly, Fed officials might just want to get the second rate hike over with. The FOMC next meets on July 25-26, with an announcement on rate hikes due at 2 p.m.
Persons: Louis, James Bullard, Adriana Kugler, Powell, hasn’t, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, , weren’t, Kugler, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Louis Fed, Market Committee, , New York University Locations: Washington, April’s
SummaryCompanies JPMorgan, Wells Fargo up as Q2 profit rises on higher interest incomeUnitedHealth rises on Q2 profit beatFutures mixed: Dow adds 0.33%, S&P up 0.02%, Nasdaq slips 0.12%July 14 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Dow futures rose on Friday as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo commenced second-quarter earnings for big U.S. banks on a strong note. UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N) gained 3.6% after the health insurer reported a quarterly profit above analysts' estimates, as the industry bellwether's expenses came in lower than feared. Overall earnings for the S&P 500 constituents are seen dropping 6.4% in the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data released at the start of the earnings season. The earnings are expected to feed into a strong rally in recent days. ET, Dow e-minis were up 114 points, or 0.33%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.12%.
Persons: Wells, Dow, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Christopher Waller, bullish, Morgan, Johann M Cherian, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock, Federal, of Michigan, Dow e, Microsoft, UBS, Activision, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Bengaluru
He noted, “September is a live meeting” for action if inflation is not cooling fast enough. Waller’s comments follow the release earlier in the week of data that showed inflation pressures at the consumer level are swiftly cooling back toward the Fed's 2% target. The data didn’t deter financial markets from expecting the Federal Reserve to raise what is now a 5% to 5.25% federal funds target rate at its July 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Waller said the softer inflation data was a good thing but it’s not enough yet to change the outlook. The aggressive increases have been aimed at tempering the worst levels of inflation seen in decades.
Persons: Christopher Waller, he’s, ” Waller, Waller, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Michael S, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, Federal, New York University, Reserve, New York Fed, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: Banks lob earnings into giddy markets
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But there's likely to be a scattering of the herd in terms of performance during that three months. For universal banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo that serve retail consumers and firms, earnings per share are expected to have jumped more than 40% over the previous year. Overall, the U.S. earnings season is expected to show S&P500 profits down 6.4% from the same period a year earlier - with revenue down a more modest 0.8%, according to Refinitiv research. Stock markets around the world and S&P500 futures held most of their outsize weekly gains, however, and were mostly flat into the open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Wells, behemoths Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, that's, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank, Export, Stock, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, University of Michigan, European Union, Brussels Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, China, Brussels
Dollar at 15-month low as easing inflation firms rate peak bets
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, stood at 99.71 in early Asian hours, its lowest since April 2022. "Markets are generally pretty pleasant with the lower inflation data, because lower inflation together with the still resilient labour market supports the narrative of a soft landing in the U.S. economy," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia in Sydney. Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets, North America, at Validus Risk Management, said the data on weekly jobless claims and producer prices are supportive of the soft landing. Although the recent trend of lower inflation may be encouraging, it probably won't be sufficient to change the committee's decision." The Japanese yen strengthened 0.23% to 137.71 per dollar and is on course for its best week against the dollar since January.
Persons: Carol Kong, Ryan Brandham, Christopher Waller, he's, Michele Bullock, bitcoin Organizations: US, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Risk, Fed Locations: U.S, Sydney, North America, Ethereum
Gold set for best week since April on dollar drop
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Spot gold was little changed at $1,959.81 per ounce by 0504 GMT, and up 1.9% for the week. Making gold less expensive for overseas investors, the dollar index touched its lowest level since April 2022. However, if the Fed does indicate more rate increases, "that could provide some nervousness (among gold investors)" Simpson added. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $24.8091 per ounce, but was set for its biggest weekly gain since March.
Persons: Gold's, Matt Simpson, Christopher Waller, Simpson, Tim Waterer Organizations: Aurum, City, Federal, KCM
The amorphous lag explains the cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and markets that has played out since the central bank began its tightening cycle last year. For their part, markets have long expected the Fed to quickly pivot to a pretty aggressive series of rate cuts, largely to counter the accumulated lag effects of the tightening cycle. Taken at its most literal level, the 500 basis points of tightening since March 2022 - 17 months ago - have still not registered at all. There is a growing body of opinion that the lags have shortened considerably since Friedman shared his 'long and variable' theory. Reuters ImageData on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in June, down from 4.0% in May.
Persons: Keen, Milton Friedman, Friedman, Christopher Waller, Phil Suttle, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
SummaryCompanies Delta rises on FY profit forecast raisePepsiCo gains on lifting FY revenue, profit outlookJune PPI data due at 8:30 a.m. A slower rise in prices has boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve could soon end its monetary tightening campaign. Economists polled by Reuters expect producer inflation to have eased to 0.4% over the 12 months through June from 1.1% in the previous month. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 107.25 points, or 0.69%. Overall, earnings for the S&P 500 constituents are expected to have dropped 6.4% in the second quarter, Refinitiv data showed.
Persons: Michael Hewson, Walt Disney, Robert Iger's, Christopher Waller, Johann M Cherian, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Maju Samuel Organizations: PepsiCo, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Traders, CMC Markets, Dow e, Delta Air Lines, Meta, Fed, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru
Morning Bid: Markets bet July 2023 is 'peak Fed'
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanSurprise news of a 2%-plus print on U.S. headline inflation rate for June has world markets betting the peak of the Federal Reserve's interest rate campaign will now be this month. Either way, the latest inflation cheer means U.S. rate futures have wiped out bets of another Fed rate hike after a final quarter-point move to 5.25-5.50% at July 26's meeting. Although they see peak rates held there to year-end, futures now price as much as a full percentage point of cuts by this time in 2024. The VIX "fear index" (.VIX) fell back below 14 to its lowest of the month so far. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, That's, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Christine Lagarde, Toby Chopra Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Bank of, Swiss, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Nordic, European Central Bank, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, Jackson, Fastenal, Helsinki, Brussels, Japan
Morning Bid: Dogged central banks rein in risk
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets have been here before over the past year - continually underestimating the economy's resilience and Fed's trajectory. There was far less ambiguity in moves from Europe's central banks on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bp earlier, as expected, but also left the door open for more tightening. And Norway's central bank surprised with an aggressive 50bp rise to a 15-year high of 3.75% and signaled another move in August. In the emerging market world, Turkey was expected to more than double its 8.5% interest rate in a post-election macroeconomic policy reset.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Powell, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Britain's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Federal, Financial, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Yahoo Finance, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Treasury, The Times, Bank of, U.S, Kansas City Federal, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Accenture, Darden, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Britain, Europe's, Turkey, Mexico
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before congressional lawmakers this week, starting Wednesday morning with the House Financial Services Committee — just one week after the central bank paused its most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades. Indeed, just days after the decision, two Fed officials called for more increases, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Powell will try to quell Democrats’ concerns over the Fed inducing more job losses than necessary and reassure Republicans that the central bank remains committed to fighting inflation. Financial markets see a roughly 77% chance the Fed will hike rates by another quarter point in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed has already published Powell’s semiannual report to Congress, which includes mostly what Powell and the post-meeting statement communicated earlier this month.
Persons: Jerome Powell, “ Powell’s, , José Torres, “ Powell, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Biden, Brendan Boyle, Powell, Mike Pence, Madhavi Bokil Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, House Financial, Fed, Interactive Brokers, Richmond Fed, , Pennsylvania Democrat, Republicans, US, Moody’s Investors, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Washington, Pennsylvania
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