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☆ UK regular pay growth slows for first time since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Private-sector regular pay - the component looked at most closely by the BoE - saw annual growth slow to 8.0% in the three months to August, from 8.1%. Regular pay, adjusted for CPI inflation, grew by an annual 0.7% in the three months to August. Reuters GraphicsSLUGGISH ECONOMYBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday that fast rates of nominal pay growth stood at odds with most other labour market measures, which have pointed to a slowing economy. The number of job vacancies in the three months to September fell to a two-year low of 988,000, Tuesday's data showed. Unemployment figures and other related labour market data will not be published until Oct. 24, after the ONS said on Friday it needed more time to take account of low response rates.

Persons: Kevin Coombs, BoE, James Smith, Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Huw Pill, payrolls, Ashley Webb, Webb, Sachin Ravikumar, William Schomberg, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, LONDON, Bank of England, Britain's, National Statistics, Reuters, U.S, Bank, England's, ING, Private, of England, International Monetary, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain

☆ Oil falls more that $1 a barrel on Venezuela deal hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The reported deal ... would help to raise the country's oil output from very depressed levels," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics. Monday's falling prices appeared to "a breather to take in events in the Middle East" as opposed to expected production increases in Venezuela, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "Negotiations with Venezuela could lead to a surge in exports of crude oil that is already in inventory," Lipow said. "It's more of the same on Monday in terms of the conflict in the Middle East being contained from affecting crude oil supplies," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. Heightened tensions in the Middle East may have compounded other risk factors to push prices higher last week, market sources said.

Persons: William Jackson, Jackson, Andrew Lipow, Lipow, John Kilduff, Vladimir Putin, Putin, John Evans Organizations: U.S . West Texas, Capital Economics, Brent, Lipow Oil Associates, Traders, Hamas, LLC, U.S Locations: U.S, Venezuela, Israel, Venezuelan, Gaza, Russia, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Moscow, Russian, Saudi

☆ Dollar up after inflation data boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. Data on Wednesday had shown U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, ticked up 0.11% to 106.63. Sweden's crown , edged up against both the dollar and euro after consumer price data came in higher-than-forecast, adding to risks that the Riksbank could raise rates further. Investors also digested producer and consumer prices data out of China on Friday that showed deflationary pressures were slightly stronger than expected.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Helen, Jonas Goltermann, Patrick Harker, Adam Cole, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Brigid Riley, Samuel Indyk, Miral Fahmy, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Reuters, PPI, Capital Economics, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, RBC, of Canada, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Israel, Gaza, Sweden's, China

"There's increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China's trade data is the latest sign," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Reuters GraphicsSouth Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, fell at their slowest pace in 11 months in September. Semiconductors make up the bulk of their trade, signalling improving appetite among Chinese manufacturers for components to re-export in finished goods. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference on Friday that China's trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. Overall, though, total merchandise imports fell at a slower pace, down 6.3%, reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand.

Persons: Smart, David Kirton, Xu Tianchen, it's, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zou Lan, Premier Li Qiang, Li, Robert Carnell, Kevin Yao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill Organizations: Trade, REUTERS, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters Graphics South, Semiconductors, Administration of Customs, ASEAN, Federal Reserve, China Economics, Capital Economics, People's Bank of, Premier, Bloomberg, ING, Thomson Locations: Qianhai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, BEIJING, United States, Europe, Stocks, People's Bank of China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific

That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mario Tama | Getty ImagesInflation was unchanged in September, but price pressures seem poised to continue their broad and gradual easing in coming months, according to economists. Despite recent improvements, economists say it will take a while for inflation to return to normal, stable levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long-term. "Ultimately, inflation is still the most menacing issue in the economy right now," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Why inflation is returning to normalAt a high level, inflationary pressures — which have been felt globally — are due to an imbalance between supply and demand.

Persons: Mario Tama, Andrew Hunter, Sarah House, there's Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine

"The most serious outcome for crude is that the conflict escalates into a more devastating proxy war which could affect crude supply," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US. Israel's port of Ashkelon and its oil terminal have been shut in the wake of the conflict, sources said. Goldman Sachs said the conflict reduced the likelihood of normalization of Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia, and the associated boost to Saudi production over time. The conflict is likely to lead to higher volatility and speculation in oil markets, the CEO of Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA) said. High oil price due to the conflict could bolster inflation, analysts said, forcing rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Persons: recouping, Brent, WTI, Israel, Rebecca Babin, Agustin Marcarian, Goldman Sachs, Caroline Bain, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Nicolas Maduro, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Kirsten Donovan, Lisa Shumaker, David Gregorio Our Organizations: HOUSTON, . West Texas, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Hamas, CIBC Private Wealth, Israel, REUTERS, Saudi, Analysts, Capital Economics, U.S, Petrobras, PETR4, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Israel, Ashkelon, Israel US, Venezuela, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Moscow, U.S, Iran, Russia, Caracas, Mexico, Tel Aviv, Houston, London, Beijing, Singapore

Brent crude was up $3.24, or 3.8%, to $87.85 a barrel by 11 a.m. ET (1500 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.19 a barrel, up $3.40 or about 4.1%. Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. Analysts suggested the implications of the conflict could include a potential slowdown in Iranian exports, which have grown significantly this year, despite U.S. sanctions. Any production and export disruption would exacerbate supply tightness as most analysts expect markets to be in a deficit in the second half of the year.

Persons: recouping, Brent, WTI, Tudor Pickering, Matt Portillo, Agustin Marcarian, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Caroline Bain, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Kirsten Donovan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Saturday, REUTERS, Israel, White, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Israel, HOUSTON, Palestinian, Holt, Gaza, Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Moscow, Russia, U.S, Iran, Houston, London, Beijing, Singapore

REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Industrial output down 0.2% in Aug vs down 0.1% forecastEconomists expect further contraction in coming monthsBERLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) - German industrial output shrank in August for the fourth consecutive month, the federal statistics office said on Monday, an indication that the sector remains under serious pressure, stoking recession fears. Industrial production fell slightly more than expected in August by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. However, she continued to expect high interest rates and falling demand to lead to a further contraction in German industrial output in the coming months. "Thin order books despite last week's increase, and high inventories all indicate that German industrial production will continue moving sideways rather than gaining momentum anytime soon," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Franziska Palmas, Destatis, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Ozan Ergenay, Gerry Doyle, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, Palmas

☆ China’s economy will be hobbled for years by the real estate crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.

Persons: ”, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, “, — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

☆ NZ central bank holds rates, signals higher hurdle to further hikes; kiwi tumbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

View of an entrance to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington, New Zealand November 10, 2022. “Interest rates are constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure as required,” the central bank said in a statement. The past RBNZ rate hikes have sharply slowed New Zealand’s economy but recent data showed it was tracking above central bank expectations at 0.9% quarterly growth. The central bank releases a comprehensive update of economic indicators and the forecast official cash rate track when it publishes its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which is due on Nov. 29. “The Bank appears content to wait for restrictive policy settings to fully feed through to the real economy,” analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Persons: Lucy Craymer, ”, Kelly Eckhold, “ Organizations: WELLINGTON, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, Westpac NZ, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand, Global, New Zealand

☆ US manufacturing sector eyes recovery; construction spending solid
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed construction spending increased 0.5% in August after rising 0.9% in July, lifted by outlays on single- and multi-family housing. Spending on private construction projects rose 0.5%, with investment in residential construction advancing 0.6% after increasing 1.6% in the prior month. The construction spending report showed outlays on multi-family housing projects rose 0.6% in August. Spending on new single-family construction projects rose 1.7%. Spending on manufacturing construction projects shot up 1.2%.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Paul Ashworth, outlays, Freddie Mac, Biden, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, North America Economist, Capital Economics, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, Panama, China, United States, State

☆ Japan's business mood improves, capex firm in boost to economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s business sentiment improved in the third quarter, a central bank survey showed, suggesting conditions for a durable economic revival are falling into place even as a global slowdown keeps policymakers cautious about the outlook. Big non-manufacturers’ index stood at 27, up from 23, the survey showed, above a median market forecast of 24 and improving for the sixth straight quarter. The survey showed big manufacturers expect conditions to improve three months ahead, though sluggish global demand and signs of weakness in China’s economy cloud the outlook. “The tankan showed Japan is on track for a domestic-demand led growth. But analysts expect a mild contraction in the July-September quarter as sluggish global demand weigh on exports.

Persons: Maki Shiraki, ”, Marcel Thieliant, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Nissan, Co, Ltd's, EV, REUTERS, Companies, Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Big, Nikko Securities Locations: TOKYO, Tochigi prefecture, Japan, Asia, U.S

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Other megacap stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) advanced between 0.9% and 1.9%. Eight of the eleven S&P sub sectors were down, with the utilities index (.SPLRCU), often considered as a bond proxy, declining 4.9%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 4.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and 48 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 211 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Stocks, Paul Ashworth, Kevin McCarthy, advancers, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cleveland Fed, North, Capital Economics, Democratic, Republican, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Bengaluru

☆ The US office market is headed for a steep plunge, investor survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

65% of surveyed investors believe the US office market is in for a steep crash, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US office market is in for a long, steep fall, according to investors surveyed by Bloomberg. In Bloomberg's latest Market Live Pulse survey, 65% of investors said they believed the US office market would only start to perk up after undergoing a serious decline. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe outlook for the broader commercial real estate market is similarly troubled. A crashing office market means banks could incur around $250 billion in losses, according to one hedge fund manager.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Association of Realtors, Capital Economics, JPMorgan

☆ AI will help the US maintain its economic dominance over China, strategists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

No country is better positioned to benefit from the technology's rise, Capital Economics said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementArtificial intelligence could transform the global economy – and it's the US that's best placed to benefit, according to Capital Economics. AdvertisementAdvertisement"AI is likely to help the US economy sustain its primacy over China in terms of GDP measured at market exchange rates," the strategists wrote.

Persons: —, Mark Williams, Williams Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Country Locations: Singapore, Asia, Capital Economics China, China

"We know that the British economy recovered faster from the pandemic than anyone previously thought and data out today once again proves the doubters wrong," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics. The upward revisions were concentrated in 2020 and 2021, during the height of the pandemic and immediate aftermath. Growth in 2021 was revised to 8.7% from 7.6%, while the size of 2020's historic slump was reduced to 10.4% from 11.0%, in line with preliminary guidance on Sept. 1. Growth in 2022 was revised up to 4.3% from 4.1%.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Jeremy Hunt, Ruth Gregory, Thomas Pugh, Capital's Gregory, David Milliken, Andy Bruce, William James, Toby Chopra Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, National Statistics, European Union, Capital Economics, The Bank of England, RSM, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ONS, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, Germany, France, United States, Japan, Italy, Canada, Ukraine

But recently higher oil prices are casting a shadow over prospects for quickly beating inflation down to the central bank’s target of 2%. The fall in core inflation “reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest rates,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics. He predicted that the overall inflation rate would tumble to 3.5% by the end of the year. But higher rates also can weigh on economic growth, leaving the central bank facing a balancing act over how far to go. Many economists think the ECB has finished raising rates unless something drastic happens to keep inflation from falling further.

Persons: —, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Christine Lagarde, paychecks don’t Organizations: European Central Bank, Eurostat, ECB, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, U.S, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S

☆ Sales of newly built homes reverse course, drop nearly 9% in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Sales of newly built homes fell 8.7% in August from July, to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 675,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census count is based on signed contracts during the month, and mortgage rates took a sharp jump higher. The median price of a newly built home sold in August was $430,300, a drop of 2% compared with August of last year. Homebuilders have been lowering prices as well as offering more incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. One of the nation's largest homebuilders, Lennar, recently reported strong earnings, but that was for a quarter where mortgage rates hadn't hit their highest yet.

Persons: Imogen Pattison, Homebuilders, Stuart Miller, Miller, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Organizations: . Census, Mortgage News, Capital Economics, National Association of Home Builders

☆ Central banks across Europe pause for breath after mammoth rate hike run, but face 'triple dilemma'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.

Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's

The data comes hours before the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting that began on Thursday. While government subsidies pushed down utility bills, prices rose for a range of food and daily necessities in a sign that steady inflation was taking hold in the world's third-largest economy. "The persistent stickiness of inflation means the BOJ will need to revise up their inflation forecasts at its October meeting," said Gabriel Ng, an economist at Capital Economics. After hitting a peak of 4.2% in January, core inflation continued to slow as the effects of last year's sharp rises in fuel and raw material prices dissipate. But some analysts say the slowdown has not been as large as expected due to steady rises in food prices, and could keep inflation above the BOJ's target longer than initially thought.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Gabriel Ng, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

☆ Central bank interest rates: Is the global fight to tame inflation nearly over?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”

Persons: ” Paul Dales, “, Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, ”, J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, “ Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia

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