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The bitcoin halving is set to take place in the next few days, which will cut miners' main stream of revenue in half. "We believe a bitcoin price above $60,000-$65,000 means the halving is de-risked for nearly all public miners," Needham analyst John Todaro wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. It currently costs miners between $36,000 and $52,700 to mine a single bitcoin, Todaro said. Miners offer amplified exposure to bitcoin's price action, which has been more volatile since the launch of bitcoin ETFs introduced more leverage to the market. "That's propelled bitcoin to a threshold where the miners are really generating healthy economics," said Colonnese.
Persons: , Needham, John Todaro, Todaro, Iris, Mike Colonnese, Wainwright, Iris Energy, bitcoin, it's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Marathon, Iris Energy, Cipher Mining, Miners, H.C, Iris, JPMorgan Locations: exahash
A direct war between Israel and Iran could lead to substantially higher oil prices through 2025, according to Bank of America. This scenario assumes that Iran's crude oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the war. Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading sessions in the wake of Iran's weekend missile and drone assault against Israel. The bank has penciled in the first Fed interest rate cut in December, and oil prices would come down by then though remain elevated. "Should supply losses build up regionally, it may also prove difficult to access spare production capacity, so oil prices would likely settle above $150/bbl for several months," the bank's analysts forecast.
Persons: Brent, Israel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israel, Bank, Federal, bbl, Israeli Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, U.S
Citi says it may be too early to classify bitcoin as "digital gold" despite its safe haven properties and recent correlation with the yellow metal. Many bitcoin fans regard the cryptocurrency as a digital version of gold because of its finite supply and its function as a store of value. Citi analyst Alex Saunders acknowledged that it can and has displayed both safe haven and risk asset behaviors, but said the digital gold analogy isn't yet warranted. Bitcoin does not yet exhibit the 'store-of-value' properties of gold, despite both being limited-supply, zero-coupon-bearing instruments." "Adoption of the emergent blockchain technology will be key to the long-term utility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies," he added.
Persons: Alex Saunders, , Saunders, bitcoin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi Locations: East
Looking ahead, those searching for pockets of opportunities in the region can look to Morgan Stanley's selection of "alpha" stocks. Among the "notable top-ranked stock ideas" on its list is South Korean commercial bank Hana Financial Group. "Our Korea Financial analyst, Joon Seok ... believes large-cap banks are key beneficiaries of the corporate reform theme," Morgan Stanley's analysts said. Here are 10 stocks from Morgan Stanley's full list of top overweight-rated stocks for April. Notable bottom-ranked stocks Morgan Stanley named its "notable bottom-ranked stock ideas."
Persons: India's, Morgan Stanley's, Joon Seok, Morgan, Joon, Morgan Stanley, Santos, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, CSI, Alpha, Japan, Hana Financial, Korea Financial, Financial Services, Novatek Microelectronics, Analysts, Morgan, Berger Paints Locations: India, Japan, China, Asia, Pacific, Korean
Oil prices were slightly lower Monday as Israel, aided by the U.S., fended off Iran's aerial barrage. The investment bank believes aerospace and defense stocks could outperform in the short run in light of growing geopolitical risks. The biggest ETF in the industry is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) , with about $5 billion in assets under management. Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA ) and SPDR S & P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) are two other popular offerings. To be sure, Liberum thinks the stock market could quickly reverse any losses as soon as the tensions in the Middle East ease.
Persons: Israel retaliating, Liberum, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Liberum, U.S ., Federal Reserve, West Texas Intermediate, May, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, ITA, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, P Aerospace & Defense ETF Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, U.S
Gold could have room for further upside as tensions in the Middle East mount, according to JPMorgan. Spot gold has been on a tear in 2024 with a gain of more than 14%. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold hit a fresh all-time high on Friday, but JPMorgan thinks bullion has more room to run. "Given positioning and recent price action, mean reversion risk in gold still remains elevated in the near-term though geopolitics remain a bullish-skewed wildcard amid risks of an escalating retaliation cycle between Israel and Iran," Shearer said.
Persons: Gregory C, Shearer, " Shearer, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, @GC
Jefferies said Janus International is an undervalued small cap name that can outpace peers in the storage sector. The firm initiated coverage of the self storage stock with a buy rating and a $20 per share price target. Janus International stock has risen nearly 8% in 2024. Analyst Philip Ng said that while Janus remains outside of investor focus, he thinks the stock is undervalued compared with peer small cap storage firms. "As the only national player with a full-service solution, JBI has strong pricing power," he added.
Persons: Jefferies, Janus, Philip Ng, it's, Ng, JBI, Michael Bloom Organizations: Janus International, stoke
JPMorgan says Iran's drone attack on Israel over the weekend can drive a near-term surge in Lockheed Martin stock. LMT YTD mountain Lockheed Martin stock. "What we can say is that it's a dangerous world and while that is not a sufficient condition for Defense stocks to outperform, it is a potential source of support, especially when they are under-owned." The analyst added that Lockheed Martin and the array of defense stocks could benefit from a small increase to the defense budget last month, forecasting some supplemental spending for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Lockheed Martin stock has lagged the broader market so far in 2024, falling less than 1% through Friday.
Persons: Seth Seifman, Seifman, Lockheed Martin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Lockheed Locations: Israel, Lockheed Martin, Ukraine, Taiwan
Jack Ma is praising Alibaba. Wall Street is more cautious
  + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Alibaba shares got a boost last week from news founder Jack Ma is pleased with the company's turnaround so far. They cut their price target to $100 a share, down from $105 previously, while maintaining an overweight rating. Eddie Wu became CEO of Alibaba in September, and is also acting head of the cloud business. They cut their price target by $1 to $105 a share and maintained their buy rating. They have a price target of $85, and, in contrast to the many buy ratings, rate the stock equal weight.
Persons: Jack Ma, Joe Tsai, Ma, Alex Yao, Tsai, Nicolai Tangen, We've, Eddie Wu, Trudy Dai, Daniel Zhang, Kenneth Fong, Douyin, Nomura, Doubao, Ernie, Qianwen, monetization, Morgan Stanley, Gary Yu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Arjun Kharpal Organizations: CNBC, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Norges Bank Investment, Alibaba, Commerce, UBS, PDD Holdings, Norges Bank Investment Management Locations: China, U.S, Taobao, BABA
Goldman Sachs has refreshed its conviction list of top stocks in Asia Pacific this month, adding some names and removing others. Here are two additions to Goldman Sachs' Asian conviction list, and two removals: China Resources Beer Goldman analyst Leaf Liu said he was positive on the outlook for Chinese beer manufacturer and distributor China Resources Beer . Goldman Sachs has a 12-month price target of 51 Hong Kong dollars ($6.51) on the stock, giving it potential upside of around 46%. NTPC India's power generation company NTPC — formerly the National Thermal Power Corporation — was another addition to Goldman's conviction list. Shionogi, China Medical System Meanwhile, the Wall Street bank removed two pharmaceutical players — Japan's Shionogi and the China-headquartered China Medical System — from its conviction list.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, China Resources Beer, Leaf Liu, CRB, , National Thermal Power Corporation —, Apoorva Bahadur, Bahadur, Goldman, — Japan's Shionogi, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, China Resources, China Resources Beer Goldman, China Resources Beer, Brands, Star, Heineken, Hong, Franklin FTSE, National Thermal Power Corporation Locations: Asia Pacific, Japan, China, ,, Tianjin, premiumization, Hong Kong, Franklin FTSE China, Shionogi
Bitcoin 's gold-like ability to resist any form of seizure makes it a valuable asset for the long term, according to BCA Research, which calls for the world's largest cryptocurrency to eventually rally to more than $100,000. "The bitcoin price will rise well into the $100,000s as the market value for non-confiscatability grows substantially and bitcoin's share of this market grows substantially," Montreal-based BCA Research said. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $73,000 on March 14, rising more than 70% this year. The introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this year and the tightening bitcoin supply ahead of the late April " halving " have driven the price of the cryptocurrency up. "The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability," BCA said.
Persons: Bitcoin, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, bitcoin, Bullion, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BCA Research, Research, BCA Locations: Montreal
While debate rages on about when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates, biotech industry analysts are making the case that the argument for stocks in the sector is growing. Last week, Morgan Stanley analysts noted that it is the months leading up to an initial rate cut when biotech stocks outperform. Morgan Stanley also believes the case for biotech stocks is further reinforced by the financing environment and the outlook for mergers and acquisitions as well as upcoming innovation. The case for innovation Morgan Stanley also favors owning biotech stocks that have a strong drug platform even if the key catalyst of clinical trial data and FDA approvals are farther out. Rhythm ranks among the stocks rated overweight that Morgan Stanley favors in this category.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Needham, Joseph Stringer, dealmaking, Stringer, erosive, it's, Phathom, GERD, LSEG, Merck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Oncology, Immunology, Phathom Pharmaceutical, Pharmaceuticals, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, LSEG, Drug, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Intellia Therapeutics, Rocket Pharmaceuticals Locations: New Jersey
Data centers house vast amounts of computing power needed for AI workloads, and that need is set to grow as many tech companies are rapidly developing infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The bank named three stocks to play the trend: U.S.-listed power management firm Eaton , French energy tech firm Schneider Electric and U.S. power tech firm Cummins . It says Eaton is the key U.S. play on data centers, with 14% exposure and "broad favourable trends" in electrification, while Cummins has "favourable backup power exposure" to data centers. UBS gave Eaton a price target of $330, representing marginal downside. It gave the stock a price target of 250 euros ($270), or around 20% potential upside.
Persons: Eaton, Cummins, Schneider, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Capital Goods, Schneider Electric
Some bitcoin miners won't survive when the upcoming halving slashes their revenue in half, but the ones that do survive will thrive, and Rosenblatt Securities says TeraWulf is its top pick in the category. The firm initiated coverage of the bitcoin miner with a buy rating and $4.20 price target Tuesday. Mining stocks like TeraWulf offer amplified exposure to the bitcoin price, with enhanced returns during bull cycles but increased volatility in bear markets. TeraWulf's estimated cost to mine a bitcoin this year is about $25,000 ahead of the halving and $37,000 after. Miners have been hard at work to enhance their fleet efficiency and lower their operating costs — largely power costs.
Persons: WULF, Rosenblatt, Andrew Bond, Bond, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Rosenblatt Securities, Metrics Locations: Maryland, U.S
Hedge funds are dumping stocks at the fastest pace in three months as what's often called " the smart money " stepped up bearish wagers against equities amid the recent pullback. The professionals sold global stocks on a net basis for a second straight week last week, driven almost entirely by short sales, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. It marked the biggest selling week for hedge funds since mid-January, the data showed. Its hedge fund clients sold stocks for a fifth consecutive week last week, exiting shares across small-, mid- and large-cap companies. The S & P 500 declined nearly 1%, its biggest weekly loss since early January, although the equity benchmark is still only 1.7% below its record high.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Bahnsen, Goldman, Jean Boivin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of, Dow, Bahnsen Group, P Retail, Traders, Fed, BlackRock Investment Institute Locations: U.S
Goldman Sachs has refreshed its conviction list of top picks in Europe and recommended investors consider a specific trading strategy given uncertainty over how much further markets can rise. However, Goldman Sachs' analysts noted that investors are "questioning how much upside is left." For those looking for stock ideas, here are two of the latest additions to Goldman Sachs' European conviction list: Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Goldman analyst Jonathan Kownator struck a bullish tone on French commercial real estate giant Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield . Goldman Sachs has a 12-month price target of 107 euros ($115.97) on the stock, giving it potential upside of around 46.8%. "The European football championships in Germany should provide an additional boost with JCD commanding c.35% market share and its presence in Street Furniture in major cities."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Westfield Goldman, Jonathan Kownator, Kownator, Lisa Yang, JCD, Yang, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Westfield, UEFA, Paris Olympics, European Locations: Europe, Westfield, France, Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, Paris, China
In Europe — much like in the U.S. — a few key stocks have been driving the market, especially earlier this year, according to Morgan Stanley. In late February, just five stocks were responsible for 60% of European stock market gains year-to-date, the bank said. The company has grown into one of the largest, most integrated payment providers, Morgan Stanley said. Exclusive Networks Morgan Stanley says this is one of the largest and fastest-growing specialist distributors of cybersecurity products globally. The nature of threats is constantly changing, and so the products offered by the vendors – and the vendors themselves – are constantly changing," Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, CompuGroup Morgan Stanley, Networks Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Solutions, Networks Locations: Europe, U.S, , Germany, France, Austria
"Bitcoin & Nasdaq 100 reflect the speculative fever fostered by cheap money after dovish Fed pivots, such as occurred 4Q 2023," Bannister said. Shortly after, on March 28, the S & P 500 reached a new intraday all-time high . .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD If was indeed its peak, that could mean a weaker Nasdaq 100 for six months, Bannister said. Additionally the S & P 500, which is cap weighted, could struggle against the equal-weight S & P 500 for about six months. "When the equal-weighted S & P 500 out-performs the S & P 500, then value tends to out-perform growth," he said.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Nasdaq, Big Tech Nasdaq
As a cloak of unease shrouds the market, it might be time for investors to consider turning to quality stocks, according to Piper Sandler. Piper Sandler also identified United Airlines as a quality stock to buy. The airline carrier stock moved to a ranking of 2 in the current quarter, from its previous ranking of 4. Microsoft is another quality name that could win big, Piper Sandler said. Microsoft stock rose on Monday after a report from The Information said that the company was planning a $100 billion data center project with OpenAI .
Persons: Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Piper, Communications, Verizon, Airlines, Boeing, United Airlines, Reuters, U.S . Federal Aviation Administration, Microsoft, Jefferies
Tesla stock has room to fall further after the electric vehicle maker missed first-quarter delivery estimates, according to JPMorgan. The bank reiterated an underweight rating on Elon Musk's company Wednesday but slashed its price target to $115 per share from $130. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla stock. "We are slashing our estimates and price target for Tesla shares after updating for 1Q24 deliveries which yesterday tracked materially softer than JPM and consensus expectations," JPMorgan analysts led by Ryan Brinkman wrote. Guggenheim Securities cut its Tesla price target to $122 from $132 on Wednesday, while Deutsche Bank reduced its target to $189 from $200.
Persons: Tesla, headwinds, Ryan Brinkman, Brinkman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Elon, EV, Toyota, Guggenheim Securities, Deutsche Bank Locations: China
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks heading into April
  + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
JPMorgan added two new names to its list of top stocks as April begins — Bank of America and CarMax . However, his price target of $35 implies that shares could fall 8% from their Thursday close. On the other hand, analyst Rajat Gupta views CarMax as a short idea, with his $60 price target suggesting approximately 31% downside from where the stock closed on Thursday. Here are some of the top picks that made JPMorgan's list: Growth stock Danaher is one returning name to the list. Analyst Tami Zakaria's $385 price target corresponds to a further 5% rally from the stock's Thursday close.
Persons: Vivek Juneja, Juneja, Rajat Gupta, CarMax, Rachel Vatnsdal's, Tami Zakaria's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, — Bank of America, Bank of America, of America, " Bank of America, Caterpillar
The oilfield services company TechnipFMC has become a "grand slam" for investors after its stock broke out to multi-year highs and recently topped a $10 billion market value, according to Benchmark. "In baseball terms, this is a Grand Slam with the stock hitting the screens of momentum, value, large cap, and income investors," analyst Kurt Hallead told clients in a note Monday. It is also involved in emerging areas such as carbon capture and storage that are important for the energy transition. The oil industry is investing in carbon capture technology as a way to reduce emissions for heavy industries that are hard to decarbonize. Rystad Energy puts the total addressable market for carbon capture and storage (CCS) at $270 billion, Benchmark said.
Persons: TechnipFMC, Kurt Hallead, Hallead, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: FMC Technologies, Rystad Energy, CCS Locations: Technip, France, North
In the wake of Nvidia 's launch of powerful new artificial intelligence chips, Goldman Sachs is predicting major growth for memory chips used in AI systems. Called Blackwell, the new GPU chips from Nvidia that power AI models require the latest third-generation memory chips, also known as high-bandwidth memory (HBM/HBM3E). The investment bank expects the total addressable market for HBM to expand tenfold to $23 billion by 2026, up from just $2.3 billion in 2022. The Wall Street bank sees three major memory makers as prime beneficiaries of the booming HBM market: SK Hynix , Samsung Electronics and Micron . Investors have been cautious about the memory market for AI systems since all three major suppliers are due to expand manufacturing capacity and add downward pressure on profit margins.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Blackwell, Giuni Lee, Goldman, Peter Lee, Jensen Huang, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, HBM, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Micron, Investors, Intelligence, Innovation Fund, MU, Goldman, Citi Locations: U.S, Germany
But many smaller firms along the global AI supply chain also stand to benefit. It has worked with Google for over a decade, thanks to its ability to produce highly customized server design, BofA noted. With rising AI server applications and GPU supply, it expects the AI server GPU baseboard business to account for 3% to 6% of Wistron's total sales in 2024 and 2025. Hardware tech Hardware tech such as printed circuit boards are the upstream parts of the AI server supply chain. In addition, its partnership with Nvidia in automotive AI should widen its AI opportunities, BofA noted.
Persons: BofA, there's, Microsoft's OpenAI, Unimicron, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big U.S, Nvidia, Microsoft, Global, Google, Semiconductors Locations: Big, Taiwan, Greater China, Asia
As high inflation appears to be waning, a long-neglected set of stocks stands to benefit as consumers settle into a "new normal" of spending, according to HSBC. The investment bank's latest consumer survey suggests positive signs amid the economic uncertainty of the past two years. Inspired by the survey results, HSBC named two companies it sees benefiting from these emerging consumer trends: French video game giant Ubisoft and Swiss travel retailer Avolta . Ubisoft HSBC said its research pointed to resilient consumer spending on video games, which will benefit video game developer Ubisoft . The bank has a buy rating on the stock with a price target of 35 euros ($37.90), representing more than 85% upside from the current share price of around 18.84 euros.
Persons: Paul Rossington, Pankaj Agarwala, Michael Bloom Organizations: HSBC, Ubisoft, Avolta, Ubisoft HSBC, Mar, AAA, U.S Locations: Swiss, U.S
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