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☆ The US may be 'sleepwalking' into a recession as cracks form in the labor market, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US could be "sleepwalking" into a recession, and signs of a downturn in key areas of the economy are starting to show, according to top economist David Rosenberg. That's a strong sign the economy is weakening, as manufacturing has only contracted on two occasions since 1997 without the economy later slipping into recession, Rosenberg noted. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, a notoriously accurate recession indicator, has signaled a coming downturn since July 2022. The labor market is cracking, a slowdown in services activity is dragging on real-time growth, and forward looking financial signals still point to a coming slowdown," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg has been warning of a coming recession for months — and fears of a downturn are rising as investors anticipate the Fed keeping interest rates higher-for-longer.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, We're, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Treasury

☆ There’s a surprising bit of good news lurking in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders fear that elevated rates will uphold painfully high borrowing costs for consumers, squeeze corporate profit and weigh down the market. The labor market has stayed strong, consumers have continued spending and stocks have notched repeated record highs. The April jobs report was a welcome sign that the labor market is cooling without cratering. The labor market added just 175,000 positions last month, marking its lowest tally since October 2023 and a sharp cooldown from the upwardly revised 315,000 jobs added in March. First-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to 231,000, the highest level since last August, in another sign that the labor market is cooling.

Persons: “, ”, Jeff Buchbinder, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, April’s, David Russell, Matt Egan, Wally Adeyemo, Read, Diksha Madhok, Narendra Modi, Modi, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Ambani, Ji, ” Modi, Rahul Gandhi Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, CNN, Fed, LPL, ” Treasury, Treasury, Reliance Industries, Adani, Indian National Congress Locations: New York, Thursday’s, ’, India

Average 30-year mortgage rates dropped this week and have been hovering in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Down (-0.18%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.11%, 18 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall (-0.28%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.99%, 28 basis points lower than last week.

Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank, Federal Reserve, Investors, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron

It turns out that a long pause between Federal Reserve rate actions is historically good for stocks, according to LPL Financial. The pause, which has reached 280 days, is the second-longest in modern market history, LPL noted, behind only the 2006-07 pause that reached 446 days. "Long pauses are typically good for stocks, and the gains achieved since the Fed's last hike in July 2023 are consistent with recent history," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "The pace and rise of the S & P 500 during that time are in line with what we are seeing now." Still, the strategist observed that the sectors that have historically outperformed during long pauses are financials and energy, which generally return 15% for the period.

Persons: LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder Organizations: Financial, Investors, LPL

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slide amid earnings-fueled tech selloff
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks dropped on Wednesday led by a selloff in the tech sector. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in the tech sector as investors took in weak financials and earnings guidance. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Tesla, —, David Bahnsen Organizations: Intel, Reuters, Service, Nasdaq, Justice Department, New York Fed Locations: Here's

☆ Stock market today: Rally wavers but Dow edges higher for 6th straight session
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks wobbled on Wednesday but the Dow managed to notch its sixth winning session in a row. Tech stocks slid. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks were mixed Wednesday, with a sell-off in tech names causing a broader stock rally to waver after a streak of gains. Tech stocks slid, with downbeat Uber earnings sparking a 5.7% decline in the stock, while Intel fell after lowering revenue guidance for the quarter.

Persons: Dow, Uber, —, Wells Fargo Organizations: Tech, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Investors

☆ Buy stocks in May because inflation is set to plunge through the rest of 2024, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That's because inflation is set to fall "dramatically" through the rest of the year, Lee predicted. AdvertisementInvestors should be buying stocks this month, as inflation is bound for a steep decline for the rest of the year, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Real-time price declines will eventually catch up with the official inflation report. High rates risk tipping the economy into a recession and sparking market volatility, as investors, banks, and consumers grapple with a higher cost of borrowing. It is quite high, and as you know, it's putting a lot of pressure on regional banking ... the cost of money is quite high," Lee said.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, That's, it'll Organizations: Service, CNBC

☆ The Fed will spark an economic crash by delaying rate cuts, State Street equity research chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe economy is bound to enter a downturn if the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates, according to Marija Veitmane, the head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. The Wall Street vet warned of an impending economic crash if the Fed doesn't ease monetary policy soon. Higher interest rates are already taking a toll on economic strength, she noted, even if growth numbers looked fine last quarter. But the economy is already showing signs of strain from the burden of elevated interest rates, Veitmane warned. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates level at its next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Marija Veitmane, Veitmane Organizations: Service, Federal, Street Global Markets, Business, CNBC, AAA

Mortgage rates trended down a bit late last week, with 30-year mortgage rates dropping just below 7%, according to Zillow data. This is a sign that the economy is coming into better balance, which is good news for mortgage rates. Once inflation slows enough that the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron

Once the Fed is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Down (-0.24%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.24%, 24 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall Slightly (-0.06%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.36%, six basis points lower than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Investors, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron

☆ Markets jump higher after softer-than-expected jobs report fuels hopes of an earlier rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before. That’s because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut. “We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” he said.

Persons: Dow, “, ”, Matt Peron, Janus Henderson, They’re, Jerome Powell, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, ”, Treasury, Apple Locations: New York

☆ The stock market's sell-off is over and the Fed gave 5 bullish signs to investors at its latest meeting, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors

☆ Sell in May and go away? Think again
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —It’s “sell in May and go away” season. All three major indexes broke five-month winning streaks as hotter-than-expected inflation data stoked fears that interest rate cuts will come later than forecast. The central bank kept interest rates on hold at a 23-year high at its policy meeting. Persistent inflation has kept long-anticipated rate cuts on the backburner. Tesla “has let our entire charging org go,” William Navarro Jameson, strategic charging programs lead at Tesla, wrote on X.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, ”, Alex McGrath, Larry Tentarelli, Bryan Mena, it’s, Read, Tesla, Tesla “, ” William Navarro Jameson, Lane Chaplin, Hanna Ziady, Peter Valdes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, The, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Wednesday, Traders, Blue, Carson Group, Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Motors, Ford, Tesla Locations: New York

☆ Federal Reserve interest rate verdict: Central bankers meet to decide on next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington CNN —The Federal Reserve is expected to announce Wednesday that it is keeping interest rates at a quarter-century high for the sixth-straight meeting. Other Fed officials have already introduced the possibility of a rate hike, in addition to the chance of no rate cuts this year. Williams later said that another rate hike is possible if economic data warrants it. That combination eerily resembled stagflation, which triggered a broad stocks selloff on Wall Street Thursday. The threshold for a rate hike is ‘extremely high’Another interest rate hike is back in the conversation, but at the moment, it’s still not likely the Fed will do that.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, John Williams, Williams, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, “, can’t, it’s, Goldman Sachs, Wall, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Index, New York Fed, Bloomberg, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Commerce Department, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nationwide, CNN Locations: New, Chicago, Wells Fargo

☆ Stock market today: Indexes mixed after Fed meeting as Powell calms nerves over possible hike
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."

Persons: Powell, —, Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management

☆ Stock market today: US stocks fall ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sour, with traders pricing in just one or two cuts by December. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move on interest rates. Investors have also dialed back their outlook for rate cuts throughout the year. At Wednesday's meeting, market watchers expect Powell to formally confirm this shift from the FOMC, which had previously forecast three rate cuts this year," Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro said in a note.

Persons: Stocks, —, Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, Powell, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Open Markets, Traders

☆ The Fed would only cut rates to help the U.S. service its soaring debt, fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The only reason the Federal Reserve might be tempted to cut rates would be to help the U.S. cover interest payments for the national debt, according to fund manager Freddie Lait. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%. Traders are currently only pricing in about a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut taking place as early as September and expect just one quarter-percentage-point reduction by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The reason they might cut is because the U.S. government can't afford [them not doing] it — and that's a much scarier reason to have to cut," he added. A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve declined to comment.

Persons: Freddie Lait, Lait Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ Lock in attractive real yields with this inflation-protected investment, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors can lock in some juicy real yields with Treasury inflation-protected securities, according to UBS. "The result has been rising real yields further out the curve, offering the opportunity to lock in attractive real yields ahead of expected falling nominal yields later this year," she added. Treasury yields are expected to decline when the Federal Reserve starts reducing the fed funds rate. Nominal yields have been rising as the market reassesses those interest rate expectations. "Our expectation of declining nominal yields in the second half of the year will be a tailwind to performance," she said.

Persons: Leslie Falconio Organizations: Treasury, UBS, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion, but the Fed's decision day still matters
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.

Persons: —, it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London

☆ Higher-paid employees looking for work are having a tough time, and it could be a sign of a shift in the workplace
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we examine how tough the job market is for the well-paid employee . That's the current job trend, as higher-paid employees are having trouble finding work despite a historically strong labor market. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe so-called white-collar recession could also have a lasting impact on the job market for high earners. AdvertisementIt speaks to the broader theme of efficiency Big Tech companies have touted for the better part of a year .

Persons: —, Alyssa Powell, Insider's Aki Ito, BI's Emily Stewart, Aki, Rebecca Zisser, Wall, There's, Christine Ji, Kenneth Tan, Alexander Spatari, Abanti Chowdhury, Christine Ji's, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk, Premier Li Qiang, Beijing . Wang Ye, Musk, Li Qiang, Jensen Huang, Douglas Sacha, Getty, Bob Bakish, Shari, David Kohl, Shopify, Changpeng Zhao, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Hamptons, Big Tech, Tech, Amazon, Bank of America, Elon, Premier, AP Elon Musk's, Federal Reserve, Paramount Locations: America, Beijing ., Xinhua, China, New York, London

☆ Interest rates: It’s a mystery when the Fed will begin to cut them
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington CNN —Nowadays, it’s anyone’s guess when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year — if at all. Fed officials are meeting this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss rates and set policy. That guidance will be key for market observers who clearly have divergent views on interest rates. Forecasts from major Wall Street banks on the first rate cut are all over the place: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect the first cut in July, while Wells Fargo is betting on September. Some Fed policymakers, meanwhile, have even floated the possibility of a rate hike, instead of a cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell, “, ” Kathleen Grace, John Towfighi, That’s, nearshoring, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Morgan Stanley, Read, Cindy Westman, —, Brian Fung, Jason Carroll, I’ll, ”, Westman, ’, Westman — Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank of America, CNN, Labor Department, Manufacturing, Commerce Department, Program, Social Locations: Washington, Wells, Mexico, —, China, United States, Eureka , Illinois

☆ Sorry, America, it's looking like higher interest rates are going to stick around longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."

Persons: Powell, —, It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington

Average 30-year mortgage rates continue to hover around 7% after spiking up earlier this month, according to Zillow data. This means we could see mortgage rates improve somewhat as we approach fall. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices.

Persons: decelerating, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor

☆ Stagflation fears just hit Wall Street. Now for the next crucial report on prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation reading is due Friday morning. Investors are nervously awaiting the report after first-quarter US GDP came in softer than expected Thursday. Stocks tumbled as the slowdown in GDP, coupled with stubbornly high inflation data, stoked fears of stagflation. Wall Street earlier this year expected that the central bank would ease rates as many as six times in 2024, beginning in March. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report.

Persons: Stocks, ”, Ayako Yoshioka, Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, Alicia Wallace, ” Yellen, “, we’ve, Yellen, Read, Freddie Mac, Bryan Mena, Lawrence Yun Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Atlanta, Fed, Thursday’s, Group, Traders, Bank of America, Reuters, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Yellen

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