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☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ Data lifts dollar, euro soft as Germany enters recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday against a basket of major peers to hit a fresh two-month high, as U.S. economic data signaled resilience even after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle. In contrast the German economy, Europe's largest, was in recession in the first quarter as GDP fell 0.3%, sending the euro lower. The dollar index rose 0.27% at 104.100 after hitting 104.27, its highest since March 17. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Thursday the time may be at hand for the U.S. central bank to pause its rate hike cycle. Worries about a potential U.S. default supported the dollar as talks continue in Washington to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.

Persons: Joe Manimbo, CME's, Susan Collins, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Kevin McCarthy, Sterling Organizations: Washington DC, Fed, Boston Federal, U.S, Treasury, AAA, White House, Republican Locations: Brest, France, U.S, Washington, United States

REUTERS/Ralph OrlowskiSINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Global shares rose to a one-month high and the dollar trounced major currencies on Friday as markets reflected increased hopes for a deal over the U.S. debt ceiling that could avoid a calamitous default. The moves came after Democratic negotiators told President Joe Biden they were making "steady progress" on a deal to lift the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a default by the world's largest economy, whose currency and Treasury debt markets underpin global trade and investment. "It's a high risk but low probability event," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at European fund manager Carmignac, said of the debt ceiling. Debt ceiling relief complicates the outlook for U.S. government bonds, where yields broadly track Federal Reserve interest rates, as fading recession risk could prompt the world's most influential central bank to keep monetary policy tight as inflation remains high. Elsewhere in markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 (.N225) hit its highest since 1990, reflecting debt ceiling optimism as well as the fact global investors are returning to Japan as its economy and corporate governance improve.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets on hold for US CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookSterling and the euro seem to be losing steam as currency markets tuck themselves in for a nap. Today's inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer a jolt if the surprise factor is big enough. Economists polled by Reuters see core CPI steady at a monthly 0.4%. Beyond the inflation data, U.S. default risks and banking wobbles loom as the next likely focus. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:U.S. CPI dataReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ While Asia markets may cheer a Fed pause, watchers are split on growth prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ping Shu | Moment | Getty ImagesWhile a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle would lead to stronger Asian currencies, the region's recent earnings and disappointing Chinese economic data leave watchers split on the growth outlook. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconA Fed pause could boost U.S. stocks, but its effect on regional growth in Asia may not be as straightforward. Nomura's equity strategists kept their views for Asia-Pacific stocks unchanged despite the likelihood of a potential Fed pause, maintaining its year-end target for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "Nonetheless, in our base case, we do not expect a meaningful decline in Asian stocks. "Asian investors' big worry surrounds China," he said, pointing to the "unsustainability of consumption rebound, especially against the backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment levels."

☆ Stock futures are flat to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on February 01, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were flat on Sunday evening. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. Stocks are coming off a volatile week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notch their worst weekly stretches since March. The Dow on Friday added more than 546 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped 1.85% and 2.25% respectively.

Traders had been betting that process would be relatively quick, allowing the Fed to reverse course and start easing the policy rate, now in the 5.00%-5.25%, as early as September. Friday's Labor Department report showing employers added 253,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% put those expectations in doubt. "The Fed still has some work to do and the job market’s hot," said Ameriprise FInancial's chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene. But by far the bigger bet is for the Fed to stand pat next month, and overall traders left bets on a September start to rate cuts intact. By December the Fed will have dropped its benchmark rate to about 4.2%, interest-rate futures prices suggest.

☆ Futures waver as PacWest slide offsets Fed pause optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed over the past 14 months has raised rates by 500 basis points to tame price pressures in its most aggressive policy tightening since the 1980s. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) and S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) have lost around 29% and 15% so far in 2023. Investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims for further clues on the state of the labor market. Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) slumped 6.7% after third-quarter forecasts missed estimates, while Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3% on beating expectations for quarterly revenue. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Big Tech earnings, crucial inflation call — here comes the biggest week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Stocks stuck to a holding pattern this week as investors brace for an incoming wave of Big Tech earnings and the Fed's favorite inflation reading. Earnings reports have generally been better than expected so far this first quarter. Humana (HUM) reports before the bell Wednesday; Meta Platforms and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) report after the bell Wednesday. ET: Personal Spending & Income (includes PCE Price Index) Club trades this week Just one trade: We added 150 shares of Coterra Energy (CTRA) on Wednesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ The US economy is facing the ultimate 'trilemma' as the Fed desperately tries to get inflation down, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Policymakers are navigating a "trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability," he told Bloomberg TV. Meanwhile, a credit contraction in the bank sector is equivalent to 25-50 basis points of tightening. "This just makes the Feds' ability to navigate this trilemma [of] price stability, maximum jobs, and also financial stability that much harder," he told Bloomberg Television Thursday. The credit contraction will have a similar effect on the economy that Fed rate hikes do, equivalent to about 25 to 50 basis points, El-Erian estimated. The central bank has been on a monetary tightening campaign for over a year, raising borrowing costs by 475 basis points to combat decades-high inflation.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, lifted by rising Treasury yields, though the pound gained against the greenback after British inflation stayed above 10% in March and put more pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. "We still think that over the medium- to long-term that the dollar is going to continue to come under considerable amounts of pressure. Wednesday data showed British consumer price inflation eased less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, meaning Britain has western Europe's highest rate of consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised up expectations for British rates to include two more 25 basis point rate hikes from the Bank of England. Currency bid prices at 2:42PM (1842 GMT)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks dip, yields rise on rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The two-year gilt yield was down 0.2 basis points at 3.820% after hitting 3.877%, its highest since March 7. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 3.6 basis points to 3.608% after reaching 3.639%, its highest since March 22. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 7 basis points at 4.269%. The dollar also firmed on Fed hike expectations, showing signs of stabilizing after five straight weeks of declines. The dollar strength, in turn, helped curb crude prices, along with concerns that the Fed rate hikes could dent growth and drag demand.

☆ Stocks retreat, yields climb on rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations for more hikes from central banks pushed yields higher after Britain reported a slight decline in inflation in March, but remained the only country in western Europe in double-digits. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 6.6 basis points at 4.265%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.11% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.34%. The dollar also firmed on Fed hike expectations, showing signs of stabilizing after five straight weeks of declines. The dollar strength, in turn, helped curb crude prices, along with concerns the Fed rate hikes could dent growth and drag demand.

☆ Stocks advance, US 10-year yield slips as earnings roll in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsGoldman peer Bank of America (BAC.N) veered between gains and losses in choppy trading after its earnings beat estimates, and was last up 0.63%. "Earnings season so far has actually been better than expected by far on both earnings and revenues," said Randy Frederick, managing director, trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.38% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.24%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.3 basis points to 3.578% while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, was up 2.8 basis points at 4.216%. U.S. crude settled up 0.04% at $80.86 per barrel and Brent was at $84.77, up 0.01% on the day.

☆ Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Today we're taking bit of a breather," said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ in New York. Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) beat earnings expectations, benefiting from rising interest rates and easing fears of stress in the banking system. The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended the session lower, with real estate (.SPLRCR) falling most. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 205 new lows.

☆ Wall St slides as rate hike expectations firm, banks surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"As expected, the bigger banks were probably not harmed that much by the regional banking turmoil, and possibly even beneficiaries of it," Mayfield added. "We saw mostly strong and healthy balance sheets, and it's pretty clear (the regional banking) crisis isn't systemic." The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.4% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.3%, setting itself up for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, financials (.SPSY) were the sole gainers. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 182 new lows.

☆ Slowing US inflation shifts investor focus to earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wednesday’s data showed consumer prices growing at a slower pace than expected last month, bolstering the argument that inflation is decelerating. Yet some investors believe markets may have already accounted for a mild inflation slowdown and say further gains in stocks could depend on whether upcoming corporate earnings - especially results from banks - can beat forecasts. Earnings per share for the six largest U.S. banks are expected to fall 10% from the same quarter last year, according to Refinitv data. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv as of April 7 showed. That weakness would come on the heels of a 3.2% earnings fall in the fourth quarter of 2022, a back-to-back decline known as an earnings recession which has not occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020.

☆ Wall St ends mixed as inflation data comes into focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The bellwether S&P 500 ended essentially unchanged. "With huge inflation data tomorrow, Fed minutes coming out soon and earnings right around the corner, traders are taking a wait and see approach to see how the inflation data comes in." Analysts expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) ended in the red, while energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) enjoyed the largest percentage gains. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 118 new lows.

☆ S&P 500 edges higher as investors look to CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With a lack of market moving catalysts, investors looked ahead to Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI) for any evidence that the long, slow inflation cooldown continues. Beyond CPI, investors are eyeing first-quarter reporting season, which surges from the starting gate this Friday with results from three major banks, Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N). Analysts expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, energy (.SPNY) and materials (.SPLRCM) were enjoying the biggest percentage gains, while communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) were in the red. The S&P 500 posted eight new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 56 new highs and 86 new lows.

The euro was up 0.52% at $1.0918 and the pound rose a similar amount to $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might, given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

The euro was up 0.4% at $1.0903 and the pound was up 0.5% at $1.2439 as most European markets returned from the long Easter weekend. "Bank earnings will also be important, they don't often reach across to FX markets directly, but they might given the recent jitters," Foley added. Tuesday's moves were also affected by European markets' reopening after the break, said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, given the limited liquidity on Friday and Monday with most European markets closed. He said algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday catching up after the break.

☆ Wall Street ends mixed with inflation data, earnings on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bellwether S&P 500 ended the session nominally higher. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, six ended the session higher, led by industrials (.SPLRCI). "When the Fed repeats time after time what their priorities are and what they’re going to do, they’re going to do it." As of Friday, analysts expected aggregate S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 155 new lows.

☆ Wall St fluctuates as investors weigh jobs report, earnings on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"There’s clearly a disconnect between what the Fed is telling us they’re going to do and what the market believes the Fed is going to do," Pursche added. "When the Fed repeats time after time what their priorities are and what they’re going to do, they’re going to do it." As of Friday, analysts now expect aggregate S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) suffered the largest percentage losses. The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 41 new highs and 131 new lows.

☆ Auto, realty stocks power Indian shares ahead of March quarter earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Bharath Rajeswaran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, April 10 (Reuters) - Indian shares advanced on Monday, aided by auto and realty stocks following strong quarterly business updates, but rising odds of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in May capped gains. The Nifty 50 (.NSEI) rose 0.28% at 17,647.70, as of 9:51 a.m. IST, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) rose 0.24% to 59,975.11. Ten of the 13 major sectoral indexes advanced, with auto stocks (.NIFTYAUTO) rising over 1%. Wall Street equities rose on Thursday in a truncated week, ahead of U.S. jobs data, which was released on Friday. The market is pricing in 68.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 49.2% on Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

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