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Oil prices slid, while investors shrugged off sluggishness in China stocks. Wall Street is gearing up for CPI, which is in focus after the strong September payroll report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStock markets opened higher on Tuesday as oil prices dipped, helping investors recover slightly after Monday's losing session. Instead, Wall Street is largely focused on earnings and upcoming inflation data, scheduled for release on Thursday.
Persons: Stocks, , Monday's, Brent, Wells Organizations: CPI, Service, Stock, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, PepsiCo, JPMorgan, BlackRock Locations: sluggishness, China, Beijing, Wells Fargo, Here's
Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Kamil Krzaczynski | AFP | Getty ImagesThere are few topics Americans would rather not talk about more than money. 'Missed opportunities' of not talking about moneyFor both couples and families, not having those crucial financial conversations can cost them, financial advisors say. Have talks 'before an emergency situation arises'On a positive note, some money conversations are happening more regularly, U.S. Bank's research found. Still, 45% of respondents say they are unaware of their parents' financial situation, U.S. Bank found. To work past financial standoffs, it helps for couples to create a more welcoming environment to engage their partners in money conversations, Cherry said.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Wells, Scott Ford, Preston Cherry, Cherry, it's, Ford, Winnie Sun, Douglas Boneparth, Boneparth, Ted Jenkin, It's, Jenkin, Couples, Organizations: AFP, Getty, U.S . Bank, CNBC FA, Sun, Wealth Partners, CNBC FA Council, Bank, Finance Locations: Chicago , Illinois, Wells Fargo, Green Bay , Wisconsin, Irvine , California, New York City, U.S, Atlanta
US stocks fell Monday as investors assessed interest rate moves after Friday's strong jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% for the first time since late July. Investors will focus on earnings season and the upcoming September CPI report this week. AdvertisementUS stocks dipped to start the week as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates following the strong September jobs report. The September CPI report is also on the economic calendar this week, set to be released on Thursday.
Persons: Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Investors, PepsiCo, Here's
If you are willing to stomach significant short-term volatility for the chance at higher returns in the long run, you're generally considered an "aggressive" investor. Generally, aggressive investors hold larger portions of riskier assets, such as stocks, while conservatives prefer the safety and predictability of bonds. You'd think, then, that cryptocurrency, an extremely volatile asset, would be the exclusive territory of aggressive investors. So are young, wealthy investors changing the definitions of what it means to be aggressive or conservative? "We don't have an aggressive, momentum-style market in digital assets that typically attracts aggressive investors."
Persons: you've, , Myers, Briggs, that's, Stephane Ouellette, you'd Organizations: Bank of America Private Bank, FRNT
US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher. The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields. AdvertisementMeanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel. The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Organizations: PepsiCo, Service, Treasury, Israel, Federal Reserve, Amazon, Epic, Bank of America, Here's Locations: Hurricane Milton, Wells
After all of these years, after all of the rather incredible rallies and gains in the stock market from so many groups, the typical morning still starts with a bevy of negativity. We hear about OpenAI and its brilliant $167 billion valuation , but we don't see any stock available to public-market investors. I have been furious at myself for thinking the Chinese government couldn't do anything about the country's struggling stock market. The Chinese stock market has been rallying nicely since the stimulus announcements. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: , Elon Musk, he's, isn't, Carl Quintanilla, David Tepper, holler, That's, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal Reserve, Walmart, Fed, SpaceX, Nike, Walgreens, CVS Health, Club, GE Healthcare, Wynn Resorts, Chinese Communist Party, Apple, PDD Holdings, JD.com, Baidu, Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, China, , New York City
The stimulus measures should have come far sooner, says Lun, but better late than never. Beijing has largely held back on unveiling fiscal measures, which can include the use of taxation or other measures to impact public spending. Another one trillion yuan may be set aside for recapitalizing banks or helping indebted local governments to issue bonds. Jia said China’s economy had expanded sufficiently since then to support the issuance of Treasury bond financing between four trillion to 10 trillion yuan. Any meaningful stimulus measures must tackle the problem of oversupply in the property market, experts said.
Persons: Francis Lun, he’s, Lun, , we’re, Juliana Liu, Ray Dalio, Pan Gongsheng, Li Yunze, Wu Qing, Pan, Jing Liu, it’s, Xi, Jia Kang, Jia, Chi Lo Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Index, CNN, Geo Securities, Nikko Asset Management, Bridgewater Associates, National Development Reform Commission, People’s Bank of China, Financial Regulatory, China Securities Regulatory, HSBC, Reuters, Ministry, Finance, Ministry of Finance, China Academy of New, Barclays, BNP, Management Locations: China, Hong Kong, Causeway, Beijing, Renhuai
Friday's rally on a strong jobs report gained momentum into the close and pushed the stock market into the green for the week. Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. The September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. Jim said last week that investors who don't own AMD shares should buy some ahead of CEO Lisa Su's presentation. ET: Consumer price index 12 p.m.
Persons: we'll, Jim Cramer, Friday's, Matthew Graham, Israel, Joe Biden, Wells, Jim, we're, We're, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Su's, Su, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage News, Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Devices, PPI, Bank, Nvidia, SOXX Semiconductor, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, JPMorgan, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, New York City
The yen carry trade unwind in August led to a temporary market pullback and recovery. AdvertisementThe foreign exchange market has been eerily quiet since the yen carry trade unwind. Much of the moves from the yen carry unwinding witnessed in August happened at this layer, Barrett said. But what we've seen in the yen carry trade is only the beginning, Barrett said. "Now, you may not think that's a yen carry trade, but it's absolutely the purest yen carry trade because all of that pension fund money started off as yen," Barrett said.
Persons: , David Barrett, allocators, unwinding, Barrett, It's, it's, Harris, David, Trump Organizations: Service, EBC Financial, Bank of, Bloomberg, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
One financial firm is trying to capitalize on preferred stocks – which carry more risks than bonds, but aren't as risky as common stocks. Infrastructure Capital Advisors Founder and CEO Jay Hatfield manages the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA) . Since its May 2018 inception, the Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF is down almost 9%.
Persons: Jay Hatfield, we're, CNBC's, Hatfield Organizations: Infrastructure Capital, Virtus InfraCap U.S, Preferred Stock ETF, SLM Corporation, Preferred
Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.
Persons: , we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer hits the charts to see what's ahead for the 10-Year Treasury'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer takes a look at charting for the 10-Year Treasury as bonds soar on jobs report data.
Persons: Jim Cramer Organizations: Treasury
Spirit Airlines may file for Chapter 11 amid major debts after a failed merger with JetBlue. A report of the potential bankruptcy filing sent Spirit's stock tumbling in premarket trade Friday. AdvertisementSpirit Airlines stock plunged in premarket trading on Friday after a report that it may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. While Spirit faces a turbulent future with a potential Chapter 11 filing, it isn't necessarily a death sentence for the airline. AdvertisementWhen contacted by Business Insider, Spirit Airlines referred to Christie's comments in August's earnings call but didn't comment further.
Persons: , Ted Christie Organizations: JetBlue, Service, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Street Journal, Scandinavian Airlines, Delta Airlines, Business Locations: Atlanta
US stocks rose 1% and the Dow hit a record as the jobs report alleviated slowdown worries. AdvertisementUS stocks surged about 1% on Friday after the September jobs report soothed fears of an economic slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end. ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong."
Persons: , Dow, Sonu Varghese, Jeffrey Roach, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Fed, Financial Locations: Here's
US stocks surged after the September jobs report exceeded expectations with 254,000 jobs added. Wage growth saw a resurgence, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Friday after the September jobs report blew past economist estimates. The chances of a 50 basis point cut plunged to 10% after the jobs report was released, compared to 53% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Another strong aspect of the jobs report was wage gains, according to Capital Economics.
Persons: , James Knightley, Knightley, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Service, ING, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics
The average rate on the 30-year-fixed mortgage jumped 27 basis points Friday morning following the release of the government's monthly employment report. Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed, but they loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. For mortgage rates, it is all about what the expectation is next for the Fed. "MBA's forecast is for longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, to remain within a relatively narrow range over the next year," Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist Michael Fratantoni wrote after the jobs report was released. "This news will push mortgage rates to the top of that range, but we do expect that mortgage rates will stay close to 6% over the next 12 months."
Persons: Matthew Graham, Michael Fratantoni Organizations: Mortgage News, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mortgage, Association's
London CNN —In late September, as Israel’s nearly year-long war widened and its credit rating was downgraded yet again, the country’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said that, while Israel’s economy was under strain, it was resilient. Israel’s economy could shrink even more than that, based on a worst-case estimate by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. Before the October 7 attack and ensuing Israel-Hamas war, the International Monetary Fund forecast that Israel’s economy would grow by an enviable 3.4% this year. Smotrich, the finance minister, is confident that Israel’s economy will bounce back once the war ends, but economists are concerned the damage will far outlast the conflict. Florion Goga/ReutersOther sectors of Israel’s economy, while less important than tech, have been hit much harder.
Persons: London CNN —, Bezalel Smotrich, ” Smotrich, Hassan Nasrallah, ratcheting, Karnit, , Menahem Kahana, , “ Israel, , Smotrich —, Flug, Ahmad Gharabli, Fitch, , Coface, Avi Hasson, Hasson, Florion Goga, Yaron Liberman, ” Liberman Organizations: London CNN, CNN, West Bank, United Nations, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Institute for National Security, Tel Aviv University, International Monetary Fund, of Israel, Getty, Bank of Israel, Israel Democracy Institute, Institute for National Security Studies, Moody’s, Startup Nation Locations: Lebanon’s, Beirut, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Israel’s, Iran, AFP, Egypt, Syria, Golan, Jerusalem's Old City, United States, Tel Aviv, housebuilding . Tourism
For young people undergoing long-term treatment or struggling with mental health issues, Norwegian company No Isolation developed the AV1 robot, which can take a child’s place in class, serving as their eyes, ears, and voice, and helping them stay connected with their classmates. “They make the child important”The UK’s Chartwell Cancer Trust has a supply of 25 AV1 robots it provides to children with serious illness. Founding trustee Michael Douglas told CNN that the robots enable children to stay engaged with their education even while in intensive care. Last August, No Isolation rolled out AV1 Academy, a library of training materials and resources aimed at improving the usability of the robot. “Removing that pressure to be on camera, we’ve seen, increases the likelihood of the robot being used for students with emotionally based school avoidance,” Salisbury said.
Persons: it’s, , Florence Salisbury, Salisbury, Markus Haner, ” Salisbury, AV1, Michael Douglas, , we’ve Organizations: CNN, Cancer, Moulsham High, Digital Health, AV1 Academy Locations: Germany, Warwickshire, England, Japan, Salisbury
Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.
Persons: , Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran
The direct effects of China's latest stimulus may not kick in until 2025, one researcher says. That's because Beijing needs to ramp up spending in addition to monetary stimulus measures. Lower interest rates, for one, may not entice households and businesses to borrow, or banks to ramp up lending, given China's already-sluggish economic environment. In particular, Beijing needs more fiscal stimulus to go alongside its monetary stimulus measures, Huang said. Experts have warned that China's economic problems could stick around for the long term given some of the nation's deep-rooted issues, like its population decline.
Persons: , Tianlei Huang, Huang Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, National, Terry Locations: Beijing
Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, , Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran
Over the 12-month period ending June, about 2 of 3 active bond managers trounced their average passive counterpart, according to a recent analysis from Morningstar . There were a few tailwinds in active managers' favor. With the Fed recently cutting rates by a half point — and Chair Jerome Powell noting that two more quarter-point cuts could be in the cards this year — a new challenge awaits these active bond funds. As interest rates fall, active managers can position accordingly, said Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard. "We expect active managers to make a little more, and they should be because they're doing more trades and it costs more to manage active portfolios," said Olmsted.
Persons: , Ryan Jackson, Jerome Powell, it's, Jackson, Paul Olmsted, Roger Hallam, wouldn't, Hallam, Morningstar, Olmsted Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Vanguard, Bond Fund, SEC
Buffer ETFs, also known as defined-outcome ETFs, use options contracts to offer investors a pre-defined range of outcomes over a set period. As of August 2024, there were 327 buffer ETFs, representing more than $54.8 billion in assets, up from 73 such ETFs and roughly $4.6 billion in August 2020, according to data from Morningstar Direct. For example, a buffer ETF could shield investors from the first 10% of losses while limiting upside returns to 15%. Another downside is the assets have higher fees than traditional ETFs, with 0.8% for the average buffer ETF compared to 0.51% for the average ETF, Armour said. The benefits of buffer ETFs
Persons: Jordi Mora Igual, Bryan Armour, Armour Organizations: North America, Morningstar, Morningstar Direct
The two-year-old bull market in stocks could last for another year, NDR strategists said. Median gains in the third year of a bull market are about 13%, the firm said in its analysis. AdvertisementThe latest bull market in stocks may still have a long life ahead of it, according to Ned Davis Research. In one instance, the bull market ended after the Fed reversed its rate cut decision, spooking investors. The S&P 500 has gained 60% since the index entered bull market territory in October 2022.
Persons: That's, , Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Europe
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