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☆ Fed's Goolsbee says mild U.S. recession feasible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is certainly feasible as the Federal Reserve's steep rate-hikes over the past year filters fully through the economy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday, as he again urged the central bank to be prudent on policy. "There is no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the US and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He was responding to a question about a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession later this year. "The data show that and we've raised rates almost 500 basis points in a year," he added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview, also on Friday, the Fed could "hit the mark and hold" with one more rate hike.

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

☆ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says recent reports show inflation is moving in the right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The latest batch of economic data shows positive developments on the inflation front, but the Federal Reserve's job is not over yet, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said. Goolsbee, who succeeded Charles Evans in the president role earlier this year, is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the federal funds rate. The data showed a 1% decline in March, which is a larger fall than the 0.5% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The data this week has bolstered hopes of those predicting the Fed could change course on its interest rate hike campaign. "The one thing that I think we're spending too much time looking at is wage growth as an indicator of prices," Goolsbee said.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Several Federal Reserve policymakers last month considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of two regional banks and a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession. But even they concluded high inflation remained so paramount they pressed on with a rate hike despite the risk. Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking sector stress projected a "mild recession" starting later this year, with a recovery in 2024-2025, the minutes showed. "Some participants noted ...they would have considered a 50-basis-point increase ... in the absence of the recent developments in the banking sector," the minutes said. "Participants observed that inflation remained much too high and that the labor market remained too tight; as a result they anticipated that some additional policy firming may be appropriate," the minutes said.

The Labor Department data showed headline and core CPI in March rose 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, on a month-on-month basis. "We are finally starting to see the cumulative effects of the relentless rate hikes," said Peter Andersen, founder at Andersen Capital Management. US inflation, Fed rates and marketsMinutes from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in March will also be watched closely by investors later in the day for further clues on the trajectory of interest rates. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps last month and signaled it was on the verge of pausing further rate hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were up 220 points, or 0.65%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33 points, or 0.80%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 130 points, or 0.99%.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the day to hold some clues on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Inflation data "could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed's next meeting in May," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, adding that money markets could "quickly revert to reprice a policy pause" if the inflation data comes in softer than expected. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data.

☆ Dollar slips ahead of US inflation data, still hits month high against yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen, with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the global day to hold some clue on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data. Against the yen , the dollar rose to a nearly one-month high of 134.045, a reflection of the stark contrast between the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-loose policy.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.

☆ Gold gains as traders gear up for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices gained on Wednesday as investors keenly await key U.S. inflation data for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. Gold could continue to drift higher "as early birds place their bets on a soft inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "A soft inflation print could send gold prices above $2,032 to mark a fresh YTD high, given the inverted yield curve, talks of soft growth and rise of geopolitical tensions across parts of Asia." Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the Fed may soon be done raising rates, while New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed's policy path will depend on incoming data. A "weaker U.S. dollar and returning investment flows have been holding (gold) prices," ANZ said in a note.

☆ Gold gains as traders gear up for US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies All eyes on CPI data due at 1230 GMTA soft inflation print could send gold above $2,032 - analystApril 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices gained on Wednesday as investors keenly await key U.S. inflation data for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Gold could continue to drift higher "as early birds place their bets on a soft inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "A soft inflation print could send gold prices above $2,032 to mark a fresh YTD high, given the inverted yield curve, talks of soft growth and rise of geopolitical tensions across parts of Asia." A "weaker U.S. dollar and returning investment flows have been holding (gold) prices, ANZ said in a note.

☆ The Fed is winning its war on inflation — and it means America could avoid a painful recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's a slowdown from the February's 6.0% reading, and it shows the Fed's war on inflation is working. That 5.0% inflation rate is the lowest since May 2021. While the Fed isn't planning on cutting interest rates this year, the latest economic data is a hint that a pause could be on the horizon. The bank's collapse amplified Powell critics' calls to pause interest rate hikes because of the economic uncertainty the debacle prompted. That along with too-high shelter and core inflation possibly keeping the Fed in a rate-hiking mindset means a recession isn't completely off the books.

☆ Premarket stocks: Main Street investors bet on comeback for regional banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Forget the banking crisis — Main Street’s retail investors have barreled into embattled bank stocks. At the same time, he said, institutional investors, the so-called “smart money,” have been trading out of volatile regional bank stocks. That could mean bad news for those who are betting they’ll see big returns on regional bank stocks. This is a risky move for retail investors, said Iachini, and a speculative play. We’re not seeing a meaningful recovery, at least yet, for regional bank stocks, he said.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.

April 11 (Reuters) - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the U.S. central bank may soon be done raising interest rates, a year into its most rapid monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Harker joined his fellow U.S. central bankers last month in voting for a quarter of a percentage point increase in the benchmark overnight interest rate, taking it to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. In a question-and-answer session following his speech, Harker said he was among that majority. Recent inflation readings "show that disinflation is proceeding slowly - which is disappointing, to say the least," Harker said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee earlier on Tuesday said he was focused on parsing the potential impact of tighter credit conditions on the economy in the run-up to the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

☆ Wall St ends mixed as inflation data comes into focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The bellwether S&P 500 ended essentially unchanged. "With huge inflation data tomorrow, Fed minutes coming out soon and earnings right around the corner, traders are taking a wait and see approach to see how the inflation data comes in." Analysts expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) ended in the red, while energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) enjoyed the largest percentage gains. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 118 new lows.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of inflation data due Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors waited on inflation data for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Consumer price data on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation rose by 0.2% in March, while core inflation rose 0.4%. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)"A lot of traders are focused on this inflation data," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Strong jobs data for March have added to expectations that the U.S. central bank will complete one more rate hike. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

☆ Fed official: Central bank should be ‘cautious’ in wake of banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —The banking crisis could help the Federal Reserve’s fight to bring down inflation, but the central bank needs to be “cautious” in its actions moving forward, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday. “At moments of financial stress like this, the right monetary policy is really caution and watchfulness and prudence,” he said. Currently, he added, there’s not conflict between monetary policy and potentially tightening credit conditions. Still, Goolsbee added, the Fed needs to be “on watch” for the possibility of tighter credit conditions. “If the response to these banking problems leads the financial industry to tighten on its own, that monetary policy has to do less,” he said.

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors look to Fed speaker remarks ahead of key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over two basis points to 3.3887%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors awaited a series of comments from Federal Reserve officials and looked to key inflation data due later in the week. Investors braced themselves for fresh inflation figures due this week, including the consumer price index print and core inflation figures on Wednesday and the producer price index report on Thursday. Before then, investors will hear from a series of central bank officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari due to make remarks on Tuesday. Investors will be scanning their comments for hints about the Fed's expectations for inflation and monetary policy.

☆ Morning Bid: Glass half full on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline March consumer price inflation is expected to drop as low as 5.2% from 6% - showing the disinflation journey from more than 40-year highs of 9.2% last June to the Fed's 2% target more than half way there. The rider is that headline inflation rates are expected be below stickier annual 'core' rates, which are forecast to have ticked higher to 5.6% last month. The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook is also due on Tuesday ahead of the Fund's Spring meeting in Washington. The disinflation picture was encouraged around the world on Tuesday as Chinese consumer price inflation hit an 18-month low last month and the annual decline in factory prices sped up. Hopes that central bank rates are cresting worldwide lifted risk appetite across the spectrum with major cryptocurrency bitcoin broke back above $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday.

☆ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee weighs in on monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Goolsbee weighs in on monetary policyCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss comments from new Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on the impact of economic stress on monetary policy.

☆ Stock futures are flat Monday as March inflation reports loom ahead: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday night as investors look toward the release of economic data later this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 29 points, or 0.09%. And that can't be determined until we get those data points start coming in in real time. But I think that's what the market is waiting on," said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. Several central bank speakers will make appearances on Tuesday: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be speaking that afternoon and evening.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

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