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Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

May 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. An investor going long mega U.S. tech shares and short regional banks on January 1 would be doing well today. Yet Asian markets, stocks at least, have been fairly unruffled. If Asian markets get a steer from local events on Thursday, it will most likely come from China's services PMI. The bar for beating the previous month is high - the last time services sector activity in China grew faster than March was almost three years ago.

☆ PacWest, Western Alliance hit as US banking concerns widen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

PacWest (PACW.O) slumped 37% in premarket trade, after having lost 29% since Monday. Reuters had reported on Wednesday that PacWest was exploring strategic options including a potential sale or capital raising, which the lender confirmed late in the day. Zion Bancorporation (ZION.O), KeyCorp (KEY.N), Valley National Bancorp (VLY.O), Comerica (CMA.N) and First Horizon (FHN.N) dropped between 2% and 6%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE.P) shed 2.8%. PacWest Bancorp reported a loss of $1.1 billion attributed to shareholders for the first quarter of the year.

☆ Treasury: US banks have 'substantial' liquidity, deposit flows are stable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday said it was continuing to monitor market developments amid sharp drops in the shares of regional lenders PacWest Bancorp <PACW.O and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), but deposit flows were stable. "We continue to closely monitor market developments," a Treasury official said. "The banking system has substantial liquidity and deposit flows are stable." Western Alliance's stock was down 58.2%, despite a statement from the bank saying it had no unusual deposit outflows and had adequate liquidity. First Republic was the third major casualty of the biggest crisis to hit the U.S. banking sector since 2008.

☆ India's banking system is resilient to U.S. banking stress, says State Bank of India's chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's banking system is resilient to U.S. banking stress, says State Bank of India's chairmanDinesh Kumar Khara, chairman of State Bank of India, discusses the characteristics that make India's banking system "structurally different" from some U.S. banks.

☆ UBS says it's time to start picking off some of the safer regional banks on the cheap
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The selloff in regional banks may have created a buying opportunity for certain investors in some of the safer, large-cap names, UBS said in a note Thursday. PacWest is the latest regional bank to lead the sector lower following the news late Wednesday that it is weighing its options , including a possible sale. The rout began in March with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent deposit outflows in regional banks. However, regional banks were under pressure again Thursday. The SPDR S & P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropped more than 8%.

☆ Opinion | First Silicon Valley Bank, Now First Republic. How Worried Should We Be About a Financial Crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Amit Seru | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Just in the past few months, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank have failed. Rapidly rising interest rates create perilous conditions for banks because of a basic principle: The longer the duration of an investment, the more sensitive it is to changes in interest rates. When interest rates rise, the assets that banks hold to generate a return on their investment fall in value. Thus, increases in interest rates can deplete a bank’s equity and risk leaving it with more liabilities than assets. So it’s no surprise that the U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is around $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value.

☆ Gold flirts with all-time highs as banking concerns deepen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold made another run toward record highs on Thursday as U.S. banking concerns accelerated a flight to the safe-haven asset and sustained its stellar rally driven by bets for a pause in U.S. rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,045.79 per ounce after climbing earlier to $2,072.19, shy of a record high of $2,072.49. The Fed Funds target rate stands in the 5%-5.25% range, with markets expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year. In physical markets, lofty prices have tarnished gold demand in top Asian retail hubs.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

☆ Cathie Wood says the credit crunch is going to get much more serious than most are expecting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Cathie Wood thinks a credit crunch is underway, and it's going to get much worse from here. The Ark Invest chief told TD Wealth on Wednesday that customer deposits are still leaving regional banks and going into Treasury funds, limiting the ability for banks to potentially produce loans in the future. So, "we have a feeling that we've started in the early stages of a credit crunch that is going to be much more serious than I think most are expecting." Wood cited the downward trajectory of the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF ( KRE ) as a basis to forecast a continued deposit outflows from regional banks. On Thursday, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said tighter credit conditions would similarly weaken further bank lending.

☆ Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( The New York Times | The Associated Press | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

NOW PLAYINGFederal Reserve Raises Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point0:59‘Taxpayers Are Not on the Hook’ for First Republic Collapse, Biden Says1:15Fox News Settles Defamation Lawsuit With Dominion0:25Fed Vice Chair Calls SVB a ‘Textbook Case of Bank Mismanagement’1:21Yellen Calls for Review of Financial Regulations After Bank Collapses1:09Fed Raises Interest Rates a Quarter of a Point0:55Yellen Reaffirms Support for Small Financial Institutions1:12U.S. Banking System ‘Is Sound,’ Yellen Says1:30‘The Banking System Is Safe,’ Biden Assures Americans0:51Fed Is Likely to Raise Rates Higher Than Expected, Powell Says0:59Biden Says U.S. Economy is ‘Strong’ After Jobs Report0:49

☆ Equities choppy while Treasury yields, dollar retreat in choppy trading after Fed hikes rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. The dollar, which was down ahead of the Fed's statement, deepened its losses in volatile trading on the prospect of a rate hiking pause. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower after the Fed's signal that it could keep rates unchanged at the next few meetings. Benchmark 10-year note yields were down 3.6 basis points to 3.403%, from 3.439% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond yield was last down 1.9 basis points to 3.7128% while the 2-year note yield was last was down 3.9 basis points to 3.9407%, from 3.98%.

☆ Stocks meander while Treasuries, dollar fall as traders wait on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. While the dollar index fell, long-term U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower while yields on shorter-dated bills ticked up, as investors positioned themselves before the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.29% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.12%. The dollar fell ahead of the Fed statement indicating bets that it make indicate a pause in the hiking cycle, which could lead to further dollar declines. The dollar index fell 0.461%, with the euro up 0.5% to $1.1054.

Both benchmarks fell 5% during the previous session, when they also recorded their biggest one-day percentage declines since early January. "The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another quarter-point increase later today as part of its long-running battle against inflation," PVM Oil analyst Stephen Brennock said. Oil prices extended losses after government data showed U.S. gasoline inventories (USOILG=ECI) unexpectedly rose by 1.7 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.2 million-barrel drop. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) fell by 1.3 million barrels in the week, compared with forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. China is the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil.

☆ Top banking CEO warns of further volatility and predicts more U.S. rescues
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A top banking executive highlighted a possible divergence in fortunes for the finance sector in both Europe and the U.S., suggesting that more rescues of American regional lenders are likely. "In the U.S., it is about distressed banks being rescued, I don't see any distressed bank being rescued in Europe," Andrea Orcel, the CEO of UniCredit, told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Wednesday. JPMorgan on Monday acquired a substantial majority of assets of First Republic, which included about $92 billion of deposits. Leading economists have told CNBC that further rate increases could expose more fragilities in the U.S. banking sector. But banking authorities in the European Union, where Italy's UniCredit is headquartered, have repeatedly said they do not see the same level of risk in the region, arguing European banks are well-capitalized and face stronger regulation.

☆ Indian rupee headed higher on weak dollar, fall in US yields; Fed awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 3 (Reuters) - Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday, boosted by a broad decline on the U.S. dollar and plunge in yields amid worries over the U.S. banking sector. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 81.76-81.80 to the dollar compared to 81.88 in the previous session. The rupee reached 81.7225 on Tuesday, before dollar bids by public sector banks, probably for the Reserve Bank of India, prompted it to reverse course. The U.S. Federal Reserve will most likely raise rates by 25 basis points later in the day, interest rate futures indicate. Investors will be eyeing the U.S. central bank's forward guidance to assess the path ahead for interest rates.

SummarySummary Companies Fed rate decision due at 1800 GMTU.S. job openings drop in MarchMay 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, while investors turned their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate-hike verdict due later in the day. The market mostly expects the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. "If the Fed were to surprise with a pause, this would suggest a deepening banking crisis and would likely send gold higher," said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. Bullion is known as a hedge against inflation and economic turbulence, but higher rates tend to dent zero-yielding asset's appeal. Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BNP only partly earns title of Europe’s JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank investors and analysts often like to say that BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) is the closest Europe has to a JPMorgan (JPM.N), the goliath of U.S. banking that just bought First Republic Bank (FRC.N). Compare that with Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), whose deposits fell by 4.7% over the same period. JPMorgan will earn a 19% return on tangible equity this year, using Visible Alpha consensus data, which is good even for a U.S. bank. There’s no shame in losing to a bigger stateside rival on returns, but BNP also risks falling behind regional peers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Gold hovers above $2,000 as Fed rate decision looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices held steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, while investors turned their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later in the day. The Fed's rate decision will be announced at 1800 GMT. Bullion is known as a hedge against inflation and economic turbulence, but higher rates tend to dent zero-yielding asset's appeal. On the physical front, Perth Mint's April gold product sales slipped more than 6% month-on-month, while silver sales hit a six-month peak. Analysts have cut their forecasts for palladium after a 60% price fall, but rising vehicle production should limit any sell-off, a Reuters poll showed.

The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea on Sunday and Monday for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. It also came as Asian policymakers, gathering for the annual Asian Development Bank (ADB) meeting this week in the South Korean city of Incheon, discussed regional economic challenges and ways to beef up buffers against various shocks. In a joint statement issued after their meeting on Tuesday, Asian finance leaders warned of risks to the region's economy and called for countries to stay vigilant to potential spillovers from the recent U.S. and European banking sector turmoil. Japan and South Korea will resume regular finance dialogue, likely to be held annually, at "an appropriate timing," Suzuki told reporters after the bilateral meeting. Choo is expected to visit Japan this year for another meeting with Suzuki, South Korea's finance ministry said.

[1/2] David Hunt President and CEO, PGIM, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. As Wall Street money managers, banking executives and pension fund managers gathered at the Milken Institute Global Conference, the main topic over cocktails on Sunday night and in conference rooms the following morning was JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) purchase of First Republic Bank. Policymakers, executives and investors at the conference said constrained lending as a result of banking sector regulation could choke off credit to the economy. Nevertheless, betting against bank stocks has been a profitable endeavor this year, which has seen the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, in addition to First Republic and a state-engineered rescue of Credit Suisse by the Swiss government. The KBW Regional Banking Index, which fell 2.7% on Monday, is down almost 23.6% year-to-date, while First Republic’s shares are off 97% since January.

☆ Morning Bid: RBA shock hike starts huge week for central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Asia markets correspondent Kevin Buckland. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicked off a string of major central bank meetings this week by surprising markets with a quarter-point rate hike, when most had been positioned for a pause. The debate among policy makers is whether to opt for another half-point hike or slow to a quarter-point pace. The Fed, meanwhile, is widely expected to hike rates by a final quarter point and then signal a pause. Money markets are still betting on a Fed rate cut before the end of the year.

May 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The U.S. regional banking index tanked 5.5% on Tuesday, its biggest fall since the depths of the crisis in mid-March. This may play into Malaysian policymakers' thinking as they prepare to deliver their latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. But that's what Asian markets will be waking up to on Thursday. Before that on Wednesday they have the Malaysian rate decision, services PMI data from Australia and India, and South Korean FX reserves to offer local direction.

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