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☆ A way to bet against tech as cracks start to appear in the comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Cracks are beginning to appear in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index . I have shown a chart of Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) which is an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100. Finding a stock to put on a bearish trade The stock I have picked for a bearish trade is Netflix (NFLX) . Starting Nov. 29, NFLX price candles are forming lower highs and lower lows, which is the easiest way to spot a downtrend. The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as a "put debit spread".

Persons: NFLX, Nishant Pant Organizations: Netflix, Trade Management

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The two main spot prices for iron ore diverged last week, with Singapore-traded contracts gaining but China's domestic futures posting a decline. The exchange said on Nov. 30 that it will continue to strengthen its supervision of iron ore futures to maintain what it termed the safe and stable operation of the market. But despite the travails of the property sector, China's iron ore imports have been relatively robust so far in 2023. In the same week last year iron ore stockpiles were 137.5 million metric tons and were 155.4 million in the same week on 2021. History suggests that the authorities can cool iron ore prices, but only for a relatively short period, especially if the market conditions are supportive for stronger prices.

Persons: Sonali Paul Organizations: Singapore Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, National Development, Reform, it's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Singapore, Beijing, Dalian

☆ Dow gains 520 points as US stocks notch their best month this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The Dow reached a new high for the year Thursday as easing inflation data and strong third quarter earnings from Salesforce shot the benchmark index 520 points, or 1.5% higher. The S&P 500 rose more than 8% this month and the Nasdaq was up about 10%, marking their best month since July 2022. The Dow, meanwhile, managed to shake off a three-month losing streak, also rising by about 8.8% and notching its best month since October 2022. October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2021. Analysts expect that the stock market’s strong performance will continue through December in a so-called Santa Claus rally.

Persons: Dow, John Williams, it’s, Santa Claus, “, ”, Cory Mitchell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, of Labor, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Saudi Press Agency, Analysts Locations: New York, United States, Saudi Arabia, Santa

While short bets are mounting in these stocks in recent weeks, some of the upward momentum could be due to a short squeeze playing out. Electric vehicle maker Fisker also saw short interest rise more than 10% to more than 49% of its float. That included artificial intelligence stock C3.ai, with short interest down a little over 3% to about 35% of shares outstanding. Short interest climbed 8% to 32.6 million shares shorted. Short interest increased 6% during the period to more than 27 million shares.

Persons: Fisker, Kohl's, Atmus, —, Fred Imbert Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC Pro, New York Stock Exchange, Holdings, Luminar Technologies

☆ Betting on a market pullback with a bearish options trade on a stock showing signs of stalling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Finding a stock to trade "A rising tide lifts all boats" and vice-versa is my mantra here. The trade set-up With a bearish directional bias in place, all I need to do is find a suitable options structure to take a bearish trade. The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as a "put debit spread". Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. Since the width of our spread is $255 – $250 = $5, I can buy the spread for $2.50.

Persons: XLF, Nishant Pant Organizations: Visa, Mastercard

☆ The S&P 500 could have another 23% upside if this key level is breached, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could have 23% upside if a key technical level is breached, according to Bank of America. BofA analyst Stephen Suttmeier said a decisive break above 4,600 for the S&P 500 would confirm a bullish chart pattern. AdvertisementA continuation of bullish technical trends in the stock market could catapult the S&P 500 higher by as much as 23% from current levels, according to Bank of America. The S&P 500 traded just above 4,550 on Monday. To fuel the potential stock market upside, Suttmeier said asset managers have plenty of buying power left.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, —, Suttmeier Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America . Bank, Nasdaq

☆ Where China’s consumers are spending. Jefferies' top sector picks for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts generally say that for consumers in China today, daily essentials, rather than discretionary goods, are in. Top picks Both are on Jefferies' top picks list for the China consumer in 2024. In addition to being a staple at business dinners in China, Moutai has tried to branch out with co-branding in chocolate, ice cream and coffee. But the company said it expected the Chinese market to "to return to mid single-digit growth" in coming periods. The firm analyzed 80 publicly-listed consumer companies with a majority of revenue from mainland China.

Persons: China haven't, Jefferies, they'd, Alibaba, Moutai, Gamble, It's, North America —, Andy, McKinsey's Daniel Zipser, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: OC, C, Nestle, PepsiCo, Procter, Foods, China, Pacific Sun Advisors, McKinsey Locations: China, Shanghai, Hong Kong, U.S, Wednesday's, Shenzhen, Friday's, China —, North America, Asia

☆ Japan cuts view on economy for first time in 10 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Japan's government on Wednesday slashed its view on the economy for November in its first such downgrade in 10 months, as weak demand weighed on capital spending and consumer expenditure. The new assessment by the Cabinet Office came after data last week showed the economy shrank in July-September for the first time in three quarters as demand waned. "The economy is recovering moderately, although some areas showed stalemate recently," said the report issued by the Cabinet Office on Wednesday. It was the first time the government has cut its view on the overall economy since January. The government expects the economy to continue to recover moderately but there are risks such as those from global monetary tightening and the Chinese economy.

Persons: inflation's, Fumio, Kaori Kaneko, Sam Holmes Organizations: Cabinet, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ A bearish options bet against this coffee stock showing some fatigue
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Starbucks (SBUX) looks like it could be an interesting stock to bet against. If it moves above 70 it means the stock is overbought, if it drops below 30 the stock is oversold. While being overbought doesn't guarantee a reversal, a drop below the 70 mark after being overbought often signals a potential pullback. DMI (Directional Movement Index): When the DI+ (green line) is above DI- (red line), the stock is in an uptrend. A bear put spread With a bearish directional bias in place, all I need to do is find a suitable options structure to take a bearish trade.

Persons: ”, SBUX Organizations: Starbucks

☆ Stocks to outperform fixed income in 2024, says Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - Global equities are set to outperform core fixed-income assets next year, as threats of a global economic slowdown have declined, Barclays strategists said in a note on Thursday. We think stocks will benefit from a fairly benign bottom to this business cycle and look through near-term earnings disappointments," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays. "We now turn overweight (on) global equities over core fixed income." Barclays expects mid-to-high single-digit equity returns in both the U.S. and Europe next year, even as bond yields stay elevated. JP Morgan had recommended commodities over stocks and bonds.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, JP Morgan, Roshan Abraham, Susan Mathew, Janane Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Barclays, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar steady but remains vulnerable after Fed steer
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index declined more than 1% last week, its heaviest fall since mid-July and hit a six-week low. World stocks too had their strongest week in a year as expectations the Fed was done raising rates gathered steam. Tina Teng, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Auckland, expects the trend to sustain through November. Treasury yields slumped last week after softness in U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of "balanced" risks. The drop in the dollar and yields helped underpin gold at $1,990, within striking distance of the recent five-month peak of $2,009.

Persons: uptrend, Tina Teng, Teng, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal, Aussie, CMC Markets, JPMorgan Securities, JPMorgan, Treasury, European Central Bank, Bank of, CMC, Bank of Japan Locations: Auckland, China, U.S, Bank of England

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: The stock market may have just bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market may have just bottomed, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni highlighted that the S&P 500 found support at its rising trend line that dates back to the March 2020 low. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur chart of the day is from market veteran Ed Yardeni, which plots the S&P 500 since 2018 and highlights a key rising trend line that could be acting as support for the stock market. Yardeni pointed to this chart in a Wednesday note to clients and argued that the stock market may have just bottomed. If the stock market did bottom this week, as Yardeni suggests, it would play into the bullish seasonals that typically drive the stock market higher into the end of the year.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Fed, LPL Research

☆ Bitcoin just formed a bullish ‘golden cross’ signal. What it means after the cryptocurrency's recent rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bitcoin price chart just flashed a bullish signal that typically heralds a big rally is on the horizon. On Monday, the cryptocurrency formed a "golden cross," a pattern that's drawn when the 50-day moving average crosses through, and above, an ascending 200-day moving average. "Every big price move starts with a positive cross, but not every positive cross leads to a big move," he told CNBC. However, the last "golden cross" with an ascending 200-day moving average took place Feb. 11, according to Coin Metrics. The slope of the 200-day moving average should continue to point higher as long as the breakout above the second-quarter peaks hold, Wald said.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Jerome Powell's, bitcoin, Wald, —, Nick Wells Organizations: Traders, Wolfe Research, CNBC, Metrics, Investors

☆ A bearish bet on a dollar store stock that keeps hitting resistance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A bearish bet on Dollar General using Options Spreads Dollar General (DG) has been stuck in a bear trend since November 2022. And although DG has experienced some upward momentum since mid-October, this upward momentum is now facing resistance once again at the 50-day average. Starting on 10/26, RSI has changed direction and is pointing down, indicating that the stock is losing its upward momentum. DMI (Directional Movement Index): a) When the DI+ (green line) is above DI- (red line), the stock is in an uptrend. DG YTD mountain Dollar General, YTD If DG is trading at 119 or below on expiration date, this trade will double my money.

Persons: Nishant Organizations: RSI, DI, DG, ½, YTD

☆ Analyzing the market sell-off: Routine S&P 500 correction or something more serious?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD The S & P 500 is also down 10% over the past two years and at a level first reached 30 months ago, with U.S. GDP now 18% larger than it was then and annualized earnings 10% higher. This places the S & P 500 at around 17 times forward earnings, roughly the past decade's average. The equal-weight S & P is near a 14 multiple and the equal-weight consumer discretionary sector is under 13, near the 2022 low P/E. Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian points out that "Consensus long-term growth expectations for S & P 500 earnings have dropped to record lows, a rather powerful contrary indicator." Yes, market breadth is lousy, the equal-weight S & P 500 less than 5% above the October 2022 low, but this is also how markets look when they're getting "sold out."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, It's, Savita Subramanian, Stocks Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Bank of America Locations: Israel, Iraq

☆ The S&P 500 could fall another 5% and test a critical support level that has previously marked the bottom, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 could fall another 5% to test a critical support level, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500's 10% decline since the end of July is putting the index within striking distance of a critical technical support level, according to Bank of America. The 200-week moving average measures the average price of the S&P 500 over the past four years, and it's been consistently rising ever since 2012. The S&P 500 has had a tendency to test this line during periods of market stress over the past decade. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recently broke below a shorter-term technical support level: the 4,180 to 4,195 range, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, —, Michael Hartnett, it's, Hartnett, Katie Stockton Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America . Investment

☆ Don't be fooled by strong economic growth. A recession could still be right around the corner.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The investment firm said it wouldn't be a surprise if the economy showed strong growth right before a recession started. "In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust." AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors shouldn't be fooled by strong GDP growth in the next quarter or two, as an economic recession could still be right around the corner. That's based on the fact that prior recessions saw solid economic growth in the quarter right before the recession started, according to data from Raymond James. "In the last 12 recessions, the quarter before the economy went into a recession, growth was positive and robust—registering an average growth rate of 2.6%.

Persons: Raymond James, —, Larry Adam, Raymond James Strong, Adam, he's, Bill Gross, Gross, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Service, Atlanta Federal

☆ A 'panic spike' is possible late October into November, says Bank of America's chart analyst
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A panic spike could send stocks higher heading into November, according to Bank of America. Notably, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a break in the uptrend, and drew near a key psychological support level at 4,200. Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier said the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) could flash an oversold reading below 1.0 as the S & P 500 nears its support levels, a possible capitulation signal indicating it's time for investors to buy. Regardless, Bank of America broadly anticipates the S & P 500 will close the year out at 4,600, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . "In our view, this tactical panic likely coincides with a break below the 200-day MA at 4233 (SPX closed below it on 10/20) and the "FOMO rally / soft-landing" breakout point near 4200 on the SPX," Suttmeier added.

Persons: Stocks, of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, of America's, U.S ., Treasury, CNBC Market, Survey

☆ At 5%, this is where chart analysts say the 10-year Treasury yield is headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton

☆ One of the most accurate Wall Street strategists in 2022 shares 3 reasons a recession is still on the way — putting stocks in danger of a significant pullback
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a recent note to clients, Kantrowitz highlighted unemployment claims data leading up to the Great Recession. But looking at the revised data, a clearer trend starts in September of 2007, he said. Looking at prior yield curve inversions, it's taken more than 12 months for jobless claims to start to meaningfully trend upward. Piper SandlerAnother indicator that tells Kantrowitz that jobless claims are going to start increase is — interestingly enough — furniture sales. For example, Bank of America and JPMorgan strategists both walked back their 2023 recession calls earlier this year.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, it's, Kantrowitz, there's, he's, Jeremy Grantham, Gary Shilling Organizations: Wall Street, The Conference Board, RBC, Bank of America, JPMorgan

☆ Bank of America upgrades Target, says shares look attractive after recent pullback
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The pullback in Target 's stock, and potential near-term catalysts, create an attractive entry point for investors, according to Bank of America. Target shares have bucked 2023's broader market uptrend, with shares down nearly 27%. Last month, Target said it will close nine stores in major cities due to increased violence and theft . Still, Ohmes adjusted his price target to $135 from $120 a share, reflecting about 24% upside from Wednesday's close. Among the potential catalysts for the upgrade, Ohmes cited expectations from improving traffic.

Persons: Robert Ohmes, Ohmes, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Target, Apparel &

☆ The stock market's report card one year since the bottom of the 2022 bear market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A report card for the stock market as it approaches one year since the October 2022 bottom of the mini-bear market would probably read, "Good effort, shows perseverance, needs improvement." The equal-weight S & P 500 is up less than 12% from its low. The median stock in the index is up between 3% and 4% over the past 12 months. All four times since 1979, the S & P 500 and Russell 2000 were both higher in the fourth quarter. The S & P 500 is now at 17.7-times 12-month forward profit forecasts, according to FactSet, down from almost 20 in late July.

Persons: Doug Ramsey, Russell, Stephen Suttmeier, Jurrien Timmer, Stocks Organizations: Leuthold, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Fed, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Treasury

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The S&P 500 (.SPX) eyes its fifth straight weekly fall, while the Dow (.DJI) is on track to decline for the third straight week. Energy (.SPNY) is set to be worst hit amongst the major S&P 500 sectors this week, while communications services (.SPLRCL) is on track to be the best performing. Looking ahead, data would take center stage once again with September consumer price inflation and producer price index readings due next week. ET, Dow e-minis were up 74 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 43.5 points, or 0.29%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Levi Strauss, Tesla, that's, Marios Hadjikyriacos, LEVI.N, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Anil D'Silva, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Exxon, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor, XM, Traders, Energy, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock, Dow e, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Reuters, Natural Resources, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Oil prices drop 6% as worries mount over demand destruction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices fell 6% on Wednesday as worries grow about lower demand and a slowing economy. Reports surfaced that Russia might end its ban on diesel exports, and oil inventories rose in some areas. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS and Brent oil prices both fell as much as 6% on Wednesday, representing a sharp reversal of an uptrend that began in July. According to JPMorgan, oil could be suffering from demand destruction as a result of the sharp rise in prices this summer, especially as the peak travel season winds down. "Demand destruction has begun (again)," JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva said in a Wednesday note, adding that "global oil stock draws have ended."

Persons: Natasha Kaneva, —, Brent, Platts, Kaneva Organizations: Service, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Energy Department, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.

Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York

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