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☆ Morning Bid: Debt vote in sight, but further Fed squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Visitors walk on the plaza at the U.S. Capitol in the midst of ongoing negotiations seeking a deal to raise the United States' debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default, in Washington, U.S. May 24, 2023. Relief over the likely lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling this week is being reined in by the uncomfortable prospect of even higher Federal Reserve interest rates - and the further evaporation of any 2023 easing hopes. Futures markets now see a 60% chance the Fed will lift rates by another quarter point to the 5.25-5.50% range at its June 14 meeting. Though largely illiquid out of U.S. hours, one-month Treasury bill yields were marked about 10 basis points higher than Friday's close. U.S. stock futures were about 0.5% higher, in part due to relief over the debt deal - even though, unlike the latest big debt ceiling standoff in 2011, there has been little noticeable disturbance in stock indices over the past month.

☆ Stocks rise on US debt ceiling deal but China drags
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% while Nasdaq futures firmed 0.5%. After weeks of negotiations, congressional Republican McCarthy and Biden agreed on Saturday to avert an economically destabilising default by suspending the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until 2025. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2%, with falls in Chinese and Hong Kong shares offsetting gains seen elsewhere. U.S. shares rallied at the end of last week on hopes of a debt ceiling deal and bets on artificial intelligence firms. Elsewhere in the currency markets, the dollar index - a measure of the greenback against its major peers - was a touch lower at 104.17 as risk-sensitive currencies staged a rebound.

☆ Asian shares, US futures rise on debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The positive news lifted S&P 500 futures 0.2% in Asia while Nasdaq futures firmed 0.4%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 0.3%, after a 1.1% drop the previous week. Two-year yields hit a 2-1/2 month high of 4.6390% on Friday on markets bets of higher Federal Reserve rates for longer. U.S. shares rallied at the end of last week on hopes of a debt ceiling deal and on optimism about artificial intelligence. However, it is still not too far from a two month high hit on Friday.

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

☆ UK inflation surprises for all the wrong reasons
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Britain’s stubbornly high inflation is a major drag on its economy because it increases the cost of everyday goods and services, dampening consumption. At the same time, interest rate hikes to combat inflation make loans and mortgages more expensive, which further weighs on spending by businesses and consumers. “The indirect impact of energy prices on business costs means lower gas and electricity prices should eventually feed into lower core inflation. But strong wage growth is likely to keep services inflation high throughout this year,” he added. But it cautioned that high inflation is still a considerable risk to the UK economy.

Persons: Grant Fitzner, Britain’s, ” Paul Dales, Martin Beck, ” Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Capital Economics, IMF, Bank of England’s Locations: United Kingdom

☆ Buy this resilient regional bank trading at a 50% discount, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

M & T Bank is well positioned for a downturn and is a bargain for investors looking to take advantage of its selloff this year, Bank of America said in a note Thursday. Regional banks have been slammed since the banking crisis began in March with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. While M & T Bank isn't immune to headwinds from worsening credit quality, rising fund costs and increased regulation, its management team is operating from a position of strength, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said. "In an industry where market share consolidation (organic or via M & A) is likely to continue, we view the bank as a relative winner," Poonawala said. Shares are trading at 7.7 times price-to-earnings for 2023 and 7.9 times for 2024, he pointed out.

☆ What the April U.S. Retail Sales Report Means for Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Dion Rabouin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

E67What the April CPI Report Says About Inflation and the Future Inflation is still much higher than the Fed’s target and economists are warning it may be stickier than markets are expecting. WSJ's Dion Rabouin breaks down what the April CPI showed and what matters for markets and the economy. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News

☆ Fed's Bostic says wants to 'wait and see' on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"The appropriate policy is really just to wait and see how much the economy slows from the policy actions that we've had," Bostic told CNBC, noting that for months he has believed the Fed would need to get short-term interest rates to the 5%-5.25% range where they are currently. "I think in the next several months the math is going to work in our favor, and the economy is going to work in our favor," Bostic told CNBC. Still, he said, "if there is going to be a bias to action, for me there would be a bias to increase a little further, as opposed to cut," Bostic said. The unemployment rate, at 3.4%, is the lowest it has been in more than 50 years. Even with some increase to that as inflation comes down, Bostic said, the economy would still be very strong.

☆ Retail Sales, Housing Data and Q1 Earnings Reports: 3 Things to Watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Dion Rabouin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Bank of England hikes rates by 25 basis points, no longer sees recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday hiked interest rates by 25 basis points and revised its economic projections to now exclude the possibility of a U.K. recession this year. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the quarter-point increase to take the main bank rate from 4.25% to 4.5%, as the bank reiterated its commitment to taming stubbornly high inflation. "In the context of resilient economic activity, we think there is a good chance of the Bank Rate peaking at 5% by the August meeting. "As rates moves deeper into restrictive territory and credit conditions tighten, a policy-induced recession becomes almost inevitable."

☆ Why the April Inflation Report Reinforces the Fed’s Plans to Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Inflation is still much higher than the Fed’s target and economists are warning it may be stickier than markets are expecting. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin breaks down what the April CPI showed and what matters for markets and the economy. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg NewsFederal Reserve officials were already leaning toward taking a summer vacation from interest rate increases to see if they have done enough to slow the economy and inflation. Wednesday’s inflation report makes that easier because it showed price pressures aren’t worsening and might soon be slowing as muted growth in rental-housing costs feed through to official inflation gauges.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ Stocks tiptoe higher as US inflation data offers hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's gauge of global equity performance (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.03% after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% year-over-year in April, against expectations of 5%. "Bigger picture, I think the market is hyper fixated on the ‘pause’ but a pause is still restrictive overall," he said. The dollar index hit a session low of 101.36 after the headline April inflation data, while benchmark 10-year German bond yields edged down 4 basis points. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.26%. Spot gold turned positive after the CPI data, last trading up 0.3%.

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ Inflation Eased in April but Remains Stubbornly High
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Gabriel T. Rubin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Inflation is still much higher than the Fed’s target and economists are warning it may be stickier than markets are expecting. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin breaks down what the April CPI showed and what matters for markets and the economy. Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg NewsInflation edged slightly lower in April, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on course to pause interest-rate increases at its next meeting. The consumer-price index rose 4.9% in April from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from March’s 5% increase. The inflation reading has declined from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022, but remains historically high.

☆ Stocks stumble as investors' nerves show ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .

☆ South African rand pauses after steep fall; focus on U.S. CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

JOHANNESBURG, May 10 (Reuters) - The South African rand was little changed in early trade on Wednesday after a steep fall the previous day, with global market attention firmly pinned on U.S. inflation figures due later in the day. At 0545 GMT the rand traded at 18.6425 against the U.S. currency , not far from its previous close of 18.6375. The risk-sensitive rand lost more than 1.6% against the greenback on Tuesday, as caution built ahead of Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) print scheduled for 1230 GMT. Economists expect the headline CPI to hold steady at an annual 5% and core CPI to moderate very slightly to 5.5%, though anything stickier could confound bets interest rates will fall. Among local drivers, South Africa's central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago will from 0900 GMT deliver a lecture on the topic: "Challenges facing the global economy: A South African Perspective".

Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped 12% and led declines on the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) after the company cut its margin forecast. They were also among the top drags on the Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC). Shares of other Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (QCOM.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Qorvo (QRVO.O) and Corning (GLW.N) fell between 1.2% to 2%. The action-packed week will see the release of the much-awaited inflation data on Wednesday. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 130 new lows.

☆ Wall Street analysts like these regional bank stocks if you can withstand the chaos in the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. "We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters," Gosalia wrote. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ U.S. services sector grows steadily in April -ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The services sector is being supported by consumers shifting spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. Services inflation remained strong. Services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. Services sector employment growth slowed further.

☆ IMF raises Asia's economic forecast on China recovery, warns of risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Asia and Pacific will be the most dynamic of the world's major regions in 2023, predominantly driven by the buoyant outlook for China and India," the IMF said its regional economic outlook report. "As in the rest of the world, domestic demand is expected to remain the largest growth driver across Asia in 2023." Asia's economy is expected to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% increase in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth, the IMF said, upgrading its forecast by 0.3 of a percentage point from October. "The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions loose," the IMF said. "Insufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately more monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained, making a larger contraction more likely."

ORLANDO, Florida, April 28 (Reuters) - With the U.S. debt ceiling crisis set to reach boiling point between June and August, it already promises to be a long hot summer for financial markets. - and inflation is high, while history shows the U.S. Congress certainly has the ability to push debt ceiling negotiations to the brink. "Markets are fundamentally intolerant of tightening liquidity conditions, and you could see this confluence of tightening liquidity where the debt ceiling and YCC come together," said Alex Lennard, investment director at Ruffer LLP. Default fears could suck more money out of bills and into safer parts of the money market universe like the Fed's RRP, exacerbating broader market liquidity conditions. Related columns:- 'Peak Fed' aggravates U.S. debt ceiling strains- Inequality and 'deposit glut' sowed bank instabilityBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite a year's worth of interest rate increases, inflation rose again in March, according to economic data released Friday that the Federal Reserve watches closely. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.3% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate. In another key inflation measure for the Fed, the employment cost index increased 1.2% for the first quarter, higher than the 1% estimate. Personal income rose 0.3% for the month but consumer spending was flat, as expected. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times for a total of 4.75 percentage points.

☆ Deutsche Bank shrugs off basket-case mantle
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Some alighted on Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), the erstwhile whipping boy of European banking. True, the bank’s total deposits fell by 29 billion euros, or roughly 5%, between Dec. 31 and March 31. In Banco Santander’s (SAN.MC) European business, customer deposits also fell roughly 5% over the same period. Meanwhile, three-quarters of corporate banking deposits either have a fixed term or are used as part of the customers’ operations, making them stickier. Deutsche, previously the basket-case of European banking, was always a likely target for investors hunting for the next weak link.

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