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The economy has showed signs of slowing over the past few months, which initially allowed mortgage rates to ease somewhat. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.76%, an increase from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased significantly in 2022.
The optimism about inflation and the U.S. economy is quickly waning on Wall Street, and the early 2023 rally for stocks is fading. The market was under pressure again on Friday after a hotter-than-expected reading for personal consumption expenditures, sending rates higher and stocks lower. Economic updates Next week brings a new round of economic indicators to see how the sticky inflation is affecting consumers and business. Other looks at the economy will come through key earnings reports. Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller Friday: 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI 3:00 p.m.
[1/4] A Singapore dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. However, recent comments from the Fed about hiking rates for longer dampened sentiment. They turned bearish on the Thai baht , Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time in three months. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
US mortgage rates rise for the third week in a row
  + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington CNN —Mortgage rates shot up for the third-straight week, as inflation concerns make rates more volatile. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Inflation concerns remainThe mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan continued to climb as the 10-year Treasury yield has surged. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “This decline may be due to a combination of multiple factors such as high housing prices, high mortgage rates, and the recent wave of tech layoffs on the West Coast,” said Xu.
LONDON/SINGAPORE, Feb 22 - The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, continuing to trade near six-week highs on the back of strong economic data. Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. On Wednesday, the euro was down 0.15% at $1.063, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.061. EuroThe dollar index was up 0.13% at 104.28, not far off the six-week high of 104.67 hit at the end of last week. Themos Fiotakis, head of FX strategy at Barclays, said he still expcts the dollar to fall by the end of the year.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the US economy is proving more resilient than the central bank thought. Bullard says strong labor market data has caused investors to prepare for further tightening. Bullard says markets are reacting to this "blowout" data, which indicates that US economic growth has not slowed enough to pull back on rate hikes. "You have a very strong labor market combined with more momentum coming out of the second half of 2022 than we previously thought," Bullard told CNBC's 'Squawk Box' on Wednesday. "Our risk now is inflation doesn't come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do?"
Gold tiptoes higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose marginally on Wednesday, as investors awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to assess prospects of further interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,835.40 per ounce, as of 0334 GMT. "Traders will be more sensitive to hawkish clues in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes, which could weigh on gold prices," said City Index's Simpson. "There's a greater chance of gold testing $1,800 before it tests $1,900 over the foreseeable future," given the prospects of markets repricing a higher terminal Fed rate, Simpson added. The Fed is expected to raise benchmark rates above 5% by May with a peak seen at 5.352% in July.
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading as Wall Street braced for the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and more insight on the central bank's future hiking agenda. Shares of Palo Alto Networks popped after the bell as the cybersecurity company lifted its earnings forecast for the year. Meanwhile, futures linked to the S&P 500 inched 0.12% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.16%. Mounting concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates spooked investors during regular trading Tuesday and pushed stocks to cap off their worst day of 2023. Investors will scour the results for insight into the central bank's future rate hiking path and its recent 25 basis point increase.
The economic calendar and market trading grind back into gear on Tuesday, kicking off in Asia with the flash Aussie and Japanese PMIs for February. chartManufacturing activity in Japan has contracted for three months in a row and service-sector activity has expanded for five months, meaning overall economic activity grew in January for the first time in three months. Services and overall business activity as measured by the PMIs have been contracting for four months. This may be a good time to deliver growth-boosting rate cuts or ramp up liquidity injections even more. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Japan flash PMIs (February)- Australia flash PMIs (February)- Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutesBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.2% to 103.81. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.05 crowns while the dollar was down 1% to 10.3405. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0690, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to $0.6918 ahead of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy meeting on Tuesday.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, slipped 0.1% to 103.91. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to rise to quash inflation. The euro fell 1.1% against the Swedish crown to 11.059 crowns while the dollar was down 0.8% to 10.3604. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0687, just above Friday's six-week low of $1.06125. "Euro rates are probably likely to stay at higher levels, whereas we think dollar rates will more easily turn lower," Turner added, which he said could support the euro in the first half of the year.
It hit a six-week high of 104.67 on Friday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate increase to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ. The offshore yuan was last marginally higher at 6.8643 per dollar, while the onshore yuan last bought 6.8580 per dollar.
Feb 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day so Asian activity and volumes will be lighter than usual. This could give traders some rare breathing space to reflect on the scorching rise in U.S. market-based rates and yields. The People's Bank of China is scheduled to set its lending benchmark interest rates on Monday morning. chartThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to scale back its tightening on Wednesday, and raise rates by half a percentage point to 4.75%.
ORLANDO, Fla., Feb 16 (Reuters) - The notion that higher interest rates would slam stocks has been turned on its head by Wall Street's resilience to the most dramatic upward repricing of the U.S. rate outlook in decades. More remarkable still, it is the areas most sensitive to higher borrowing costs - tech, the Nasdaq and growth stocks - that are outperforming in the face of soaring bond yields, implied rates and Fed expectations. These sectors are more sensitive to rising yields because future cash flows and profits are discounted at higher rates. "Higher interest rates are less bad for stock prices, even though rates can continue to weigh on multiples." In a higher rate regime, profitability matters.
Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.
Stocks shrug off rates risk as U.S. consumers spend
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Equities - with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) up 15% so far this year - are clinging to the positives, while in interest rate markets investors are quickly ditching hopes for cuts later in 2023. Two-year Treasury yields , which also track short-term interest rate expectations, hit their highest since November at 4.703% overnight. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Elsewhere the repricing of the interest rates outlook is putting an end to a couple months of selling of the dollar in currency markets. The U.S. dollar index is eying a third weekly gain in a row - the longest streak since September, when the index was galloping towards a 20-year high.
Feb 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Or rather, it is the reaction of world markets and risky assets to the repricing that is increasingly defying logic. This has come amid an astonishing rise in U.S. bond yields, market-based implied rates, and Fed policy expectations. According to U.S. 'SOFR' rate futures the implied year-end Fed policy rate is now above 5% - four months ago it was 4%, and six months ago it was only 3%. chartIn Asia, Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, which could mark the end of a short six-month long hiking cycle.
On the back of this repricing, the U.S. consumer inflation data due on Tuesday will draw more than the usual scrutiny. Economists polled by Reuters expect both the annual headline and core inflation rate to soften. Unless there is a big surprise in U.S. inflation data, the rupee should hold the 82.40-82.90 range, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Also due later in the day is the India inflation data. The inflation rate is forecast to have risen to 5.9% in January from 5.72% in December.
Consumer price inflation in January is expected to have risen 0.7% on the month and at an annual rate of 2.2%, up from 0.0% and 1.8%, respectively, as the economy picks up following its COVID-19 pandemic paralysis. chartOn its own, economic re-opening will likely accelerate growth and inflation this year. Deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations could encourage some investors and businesses to rethink their exposure to China, potentially affecting Chinese assets and rippling through to others, like European equities and U.S. Treasuries. Risk assets are repricing accordingly. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI and PPI inflation (January)- Japan goods price inflation (January)- India industrial production (December)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.
U.S. and European equity markets were mixed to lower, with the euro and pound lower against the dollar. The broad pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.04% and MSCI's gauge of global stock performance (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.12%. "What's been really important is that the market sees a lower likelihood of rate cuts by the end of the year." Asian stocks stabilized overnight after they, like most global share markets, suffered steep losses following that U.S jobs data. "Sentiment in markets is dominated by central banks and the repricing of rates yet again," Kerry Craig, JPMorgan Asset Management's global market strategist, said.
Sell-off fizzles out ahead of Fed, ECB and BoE speeches
  + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. Then comes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington during U.S. trading plus U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. DEADLY QUAKEAmong the main commodities, oil jumped for a second straight session driven by optimism about recovering demand in China, and after Monday's devastating earthquake in Turkey had shut down one of the region's major oil export terminals. "Equities have had a strong run since the start of the year so seeing an air pocket emerge now is no major surprise." Additional reporting by Scoot Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 (.AXJO) was trading higher ahead of the Reserve Bank's decision but slid into negative territory after the official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was trading 0.67% higher and China's bluechip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) was up 0.07%. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.4267% compared with a U.S. close of 4.456%. The repricing of higher rates began after strong U.S jobs growth in January, with employment rising 517,000, more than double economists expectations. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major trading partner currencies, was down marginally at 103.45 from its U.S. trading levels.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced slightly 0.4%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) opened up 0.68% and China's bluechip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) was 0.3% higher in early trade. The repricing of higher rates began after strong U.S jobs growth in January, with employment rising 517,000, more than double economists expectations. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major trading partner currencies, was down marginally at 103.47 from its U.S. trading levels. Gold was slightly higher.
Brazilian financial services company Inter is getting serious about profitability, and investors should jump in stock before shares rise, according to Goldman Sachs. Labarta said the Brazilian company has grown increasingly focused on profitability with a more thoughtful approach to growth, pricing and efficiency. He expects a small net profit in 2024 as, according to Labarta, the company will feel less impacts from inflation. He also highlighted the 5-year 30% return-on-equity target, which Labarta said is above his expectations but on the right track. The stock lost 4.1% in 2022, which was its first year on the stock market.
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