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The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.
Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S
The Turkish lira hit a fresh record low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, trading at 30.005 to the greenback just before noon local time. It marks the first time that the lira has broken 30 against the dollar, which was up 0.17% against the Turkish currency from the previous day's session. The beleaguered lira has fallen some 37% against the U.S. benchmark over the past year, as monetary policymakers try to combat double-digit inflation by steadily raising interest rates. Inflation in the country of roughly 84 million rose to 64.8% on an annual basis in December, up from 62% in November. It's still an improvement on the prior year, after Turkish inflation hit a peak of 85.5% in October 2022.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, It's Organizations: U.S, Ankara Locations: Morgan's, New York
Gold subdued as traders gear up for US inflation print
  + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A worker handles an Argor-Heraeus SA one kilogram gold bar at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,023.48 per ounce. U.S. consumer inflation data is due on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters see year-on-year inflation at 3.2% in December, but think core inflation likely fell to 3.8%, its lowest since mid-2021. "Still, bullion bulls would have no qualms restoring spot gold back above that psychologically important mark once markets get a firmer grasp on the Fed's policy pivot."
Persons: Bob Haberkorn, Michelle Bowman, denting, Han Tan Organizations: Heraeus SA, Solar, Reuters, New York Federal Reserve, Treasury, Exinity Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S
Dollar gains on yen, bitcoin edges up before expected SEC decision
  + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The SEC was expected to announce later in the day whether it will approve applications from asset managers Ark Investments and 21Shares (ABTC.S) to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. More than a dozen bitcoin ETF applications - including from BlackRock (BLK.N), Fidelity and VanEck - are also pending with the agency. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out on Thursday is the next likely driver of dollar direction. It is expected to show that headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on an annual basis. Anticipation of a positive SEC decision on ETFs, which is likely to draw billions of dollars in new investments, has boosted bitcoin prices in the past two months.
Persons: Exchange Commission's, Marc Chandler, Chandler, bitcoin, Chris Weston, Ethereum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Securities, Exchange, SEC, Ark Investments, BlackRock, Fidelity, Institute for Supply Management, Index, Fed, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Japan
Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation data on Thursday for clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. But Fed expectations are likely to continue to drive dollar moves. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. If the data confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate it could boost expectations for a March rate cut, though if it comes in above expectations it could also reverse some of that pricing. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.33% at 102.55.
Persons: Bipan Rai, Kamal Sharma, steepening, Sharma Organizations: Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, Investment Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Asia, Bitcoin
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that he sees the chance of a severe recession coming in 2024 and that the S & P 500 , possibly in anticipation, may be forming a particularly bearish technical trading pattern. Other than the yield curve, Gundlach said leading economic indicators have been flashing contractionary signals for a long time, especially manufacturing. Gundlach pointed out that the S & P 500 has almost returned to its record level set in January 2022, forming a "double top" price chart. At the end of 2023, after a 24% rally, the S & P 500 was less than 1% from its all-time high of 4796.56 reached in January 2022. Gundlach said the greenback is losing its momentum and the S & P 500 should underperform its international counterparts in the next recession.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Carter, We're, we've Organizations: DoubleLine
Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.
Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington
Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy. In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030. This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year. "This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing," Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector. A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery.
Persons: Matty Zhao Organizations: U.S, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities, CNBC, Citibank, Citi Locations: Huai'an, Jiangsu Province, China, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Europe
How China Manages Its Currency—and Why That Matters
  + stars: | 2023-12-29 | by ( Weilun Soon | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
China’s approach to its currency is a mix of bold ambition and fear of dollar strength. The yuan has lost 3% of its value against the greenback in 2023 and was doing even worse before the dollar slipped against most global currencies in November. The yuan traded around 16-year lows against the dollar in September. A dollar now buys around 7.11 yuan.
This delayed six cargoes of Sokol oil the IOC was supposed to receive from late November to December, Reuters reported, citing shipping data. It isn't immediately clear how much Sokol oil is stuck at sea due to the payment issue. AdvertisementIndia has emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil following swathes of Western sanctions against Moscow. This means that dollar trade with Russia is restricted — and this is important since the greenback is the international trade currency of choice. To be able to buy Russian oil, India insisted on settling trades in the rupee earlier this year.
Persons: , Rosneft, It's Organizations: Service, Russian Sokol, Indian Oil Corp, Reuters, Business, United, UAE dirham, IOC, Business Insider, Sokol, Bloomberg, Moscow Locations: Moscow, Russian, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Sokol, India, Sri Lanka, Russia, Ukraine, China, Delhi, Beijing
Dollar steady as traders weigh labour data, rate outlook
  + stars: | 2023-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.019% higher at 103.99, having climbed 0.3% overnight. Data also showed there were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021. "This week the highlight is payrolls (report)," OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said, adding that a downside surprise could see dollar rebound stall. Investors believe the European Central Bank could deliver its first rate cut by March. Inflation across the euro zone has fallen more quickly than most anticipated, as evidenced by last Thursday's consumer price data.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Organizations: Reserve, Traders, ANZ, Fed, Investors, European Central Bank Locations: U.S
Dollar stems decline after heavy November selloff
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday and hovered near a one-week high against major peers, while bitcoin extended its momentum on optimism that U.S. regulators could soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds. The euro , meanwhile, languished near a three-week low hit on Monday and last traded $1.0840, while the dollar index stood near a more than one-week high and was last at 103.59. Analysts say the greenback's move higher was in part due to a reversal of its heavy selloff in recent weeks, which saw the dollar index falling some 3% in November, its steepest monthly decline in a year. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last stood at $41,873, not far from the previous session's peak of $42,404, its highest level since April 2022.
Persons: bitcoin, Sean Callow, Thierry Wizman, Bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev Organizations: U.S, Westpac, Traders, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Locations: Chicago, Asia, Tokyo, Reserve Bank of Australia
Moody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for Chinese government bonds to negative on Tuesday. Beijing has rolled out stimulus packages and ramped up borrowing in a bid to support the embattled Chinese economy in 2023. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMoody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for China's credit rating on Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to the world's second-largest economy. Moody's cited stagnant growth and a seemingly never-ending property crisis as factors that could hamper Beijing's ability to repay its debts.
Persons: , Moody's, that's, , Read, It's Organizations: Moody's, Service, China's Ministry, Finance, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: Beijing, China, Moody's
Gold prices have never been this high
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
London CNN —Gold prices hit an all-time high Monday, buoyed by growing expectations of interest rate cuts among investors, a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. “This has created a more favorable environment for gold as a non-yielding asset.”John Reade, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers, told CNN that, with investors predicting several rate cuts over the next year, gold prices could “quite possibly” shoot above Monday’s record high. Since gold is priced in US dollars, the fall in the greenback’s value has made it less expensive for investors outside the United States to buy the metal, which should have boosted demand and, in turn, lifted gold prices. Gold prices have risen 10% so far this year. According to the World Gold Council, central banks in emerging markets bought 473 metric tons (521 tons) of gold a year on average between 2010 and 2021.
Persons: ebbs, Daria Efanova, ” John Reade, Jamie Dimon, ” Reade, , Reade, Organizations: London CNN —, US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Sucden, World Gold Council, CNN, Interactive Investor Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, China, South China, Taiwan, Russian
Dollar on shaky ground as Fed rate cut bets strengthen
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Powell said on Friday it was clear that U.S. monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected, with the benchmark overnight interest rate "well into restrictive territory." The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, was last hovering around Friday's close at 103.28. That means dollar pairs could continue to get a boost depending on U.S. economic data, Rodda said. Against the yen, the dollar was fetching $146.58 yen , after falling to 146.24 earlier in the session, its lowest since Sept. 11. The yen has recently pulled away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 per dollar touched in the middle of November.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Bitcoin, Powell, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Sterling, Christine Lagarde, Carol Kong, bitcoin, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, U.S, U.S ., European Central Bank, ECB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, cryptocurrencies
Forex swings will upend lucrative yen carry trade
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
But as central banks start moving in the opposite direction, those “carry trades” will become a lot riskier. Notably those who bet against its government bonds in a trade so bad it became known as the “widow maker”. Foreign exchange traders beg to differ: the carry trade has been a sure-fire money maker this year. That’s due to the huge gap in short-term interest rates between Japan, where they are -0.1%, and other countries. Reuters GraphicsThe most popular carry trade with yen has been into U.S. dollars .
Persons: , , Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, LSEG, Bank of America, U.S, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Japan, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine
Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - After making hay when a summer bond rout propelled the U.S. dollar to 10-month highs, hedge funds are now pondering what lies ahead for the greenback. Five funds shared their views on the fate of the dollar. This does not represent recommendations or trading positions, which some hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. He expects the U.S. economy to slow sharply which, alongside falling inflation, will likely hurt the dollar against some emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, trading at 4.8908 per dollar , is up roughly 8% so far this year against the dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jonathan Fader, Fader, Doug Greenig, Florin Court's, Greenig, Tara Hariharan, Hariharan, NWI, Carlos Calabresi, Michael Sager, Sager, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, greenback, Swiss, Reuters, FLORIN, China Foreign Exchange Trade, Long, Garde, CIBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, China, Asia, Brazilian, London, Carolina, New York
OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, avoiding a recession but showing growth stumbling ahead of next week's interest-rate decision. The economy avoided slipping into a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions - because second-quarter GDP data was revised up to a 1.4% gain from an initial report of a 0.2% decline, Statistics Canada said. The BoC has remained on the sidelines since July after lifting its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% to tame inflation. "The bottom line is that the economy is still sputtering along," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Real GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, Statscan said.
Persons: Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Bipan Rai, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Fergal Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada's, Statistics, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, U.S ., BoC, Desjardins Group, Bank of Canada, Bank, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto
The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) index dipped 0.1%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.5%. The life insurance sector (.FTNMX303010) fell 0.4%, with Prudential (PRU.L) slipping 0.7% after Deutsche Bank reduced its price target on the stock. Banks (.FTNMX301010) slipped 1.7% following a 2.3% fall in HSBC (HSBA.L), which was the biggest weight on the FTSE 100. Among individual stocks Halfords Group (HFD.L) plunged 21.1% after the bicycles-to-car parts retailer narrowed its annual profit forecast range. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Toby Melville, Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Eddie Cheng, Banks, Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Eileen Soreng Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, REUTERS, Aviva, Bank of England, Prudential, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Allspring Global Investments, HSBC, Halfords, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, United States, Bengaluru
The Australian dollar held near a four-month peak while the New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495 in early Asia trade. Australian inflation data is due later in the day, followed by a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The dollar index was eyeing a nearly 4% loss for November, its worst monthly performance in a year. "We have become less constructive on the prospects for the U.S. dollar, as progress in reducing U.S. inflation suggests the risks are tilted toward earlier rather than later Fed easing," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. Sterling last bought $1.27105, hovering near the previous session's roughly three-month high of $1.2715.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Capital.com's Rodda, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Fed, U.S ., Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Wells
"The GDP data helped the dollar a little bit. "So if we're seeing some strength on the cyclical side of the economy, then that could be challenging the rate cut narrative a little bit." U.S. rate futures, however, increased bets of a rate cut starting in March, following the GDP data, to a nearly 50% chance of easing, compared with nearly 35% late on Tuesday, the CME's FedWatch tool showed. Comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the months ahead sent U.S. bond yields and the dollar sliding on Tuesday. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session at 7.1246 per dollar, the strongest closing price since June 16.
Persons: Erik F, Christopher Waller, Wells Fargo's Nelson Organizations: US, Swiss, New Zealand, U.S . Commerce Department, Reuters, New, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Locations: Swedish, Hamburg, Germany, U.S, Wells Fargo, London, Europe's, Spain
London CNN —The US dollar is barreling toward a 3.7% loss this month against a basket of six major currencies in what would be it worst monthly performance in a year. For countries that depend on commodity imports, a weaker dollar means they have to pay less for essentials like wheat and crude oil. A number of up-and-coming economies have debts denominated in dollars, and a weaker dollar can make servicing those debts less expensive. A fall in the greenback’s value also signals better investment opportunities outside the United States, McCormick told CNN. “A weaker dollar is a rising tide that lifts all boats,” he said.
Persons: decelerate, ” Ulrich Leuchtmann, Cameron Willard, , ” Willard, , Mark McCormick, Leuchtmann, McCormick, stokes, Willard Organizations: London CNN, Reserve, CNN, TD Securities Locations: United States, Japan, Korea, India, Handelsbanken
Morning Bid: Vale Charlie Munger
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation Charlie Munger speaks to Reuters during an interview in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2013. The union of Munger and Warren Buffett is among the most successful in the history of business, transforming Berkshire Hathaway into a multi-billion dollar conglomerate. Often handy with a one-liner Munger summed up his fame in 2010: "I think part of the popularity of Berkshire Hathaway is that we look like people who have found a trick," he said. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low just below 4.70%. Ten-year Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.28%.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Lane, Tom Westbrook, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Munger, Christopher Waller, Waller's, China's stockmarkets, Sam Holmes Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, Reuters, REUTERS, Investors, Swiss, greenback, Spanish CPI, Thomson Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Munger, Berkshire, Asia, New, Spanish
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO/LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of peers on Tuesday before steadying, as traders continued to unwind long dollar positions before this week's U.S. and euro zone inflation data. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, was last at 103.17, a whisker above the 103.07 it touched in Asia trade, the lowest since Aug. 31. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. The Japanese yen was a touch firmer at 148.45 per dollar , continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month as the dollar weakened. The Swiss franc was at 0.8810 per dollar, steady on the day, also around its firmest since the start of September, and the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Ed Osmond, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, greenback . U.S, Fed, Reuters, Swiss, Australian, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: LONDON, steadying, U.S, Asia, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
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