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☆ JPMorgan is still doubting the bull with lowest S&P 500 target
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the S & P 500 nears a new high, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas remains relatively pessimistic on how 2024 will pan out. In a Friday client report, he called the early results and forward guidance from S & P 500 companies "lackluster." Just about one out of every 10 S & P 500 companies has reported results, according to FactSet. His concerns come as the S & P 500 is poised to hit an all-time high closing level on Friday. The average analyst has a 4,914 target for the S & P 500 at the end of 2024, according to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey.

Persons: JPMorgan hasn't, Dubravko, Bujas Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Fed, CNBC Pro's, Survey

☆ A low-cost trade that wins if the S&P 500 breaks out and heads for 5,000 next
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stuttering start to 2024, the S & P 500 has found its way into positive territory and the benchmark seems poised to establish a new all-time close Friday, surpassing the 4,800 level which served as resistance back in January of 2022. My optimism on U.S. equities is predicated on the continued strength of the U.S. consumer and our economy but, I believe the real reason for the S & P 500 to possibly run up and kiss 5,000 is because of the underinvested bears. SPY 5Y mountain SPDR S & P 500 (SPY), 5 years Investors will remain focused on continuous Fed messaging specific to the timing of the rate cuts in the wake of the Fed's telegraphed pivot from being hawkish to dovish in the fourth quarter. The trade: To reduce the cost of simply being long an at-the-money SPY call, I want to buy a call spread. DISCLOSURES: (Long SPY and long this call spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: TSM Organizations: Federal Reserve, Taiwan Semiconductor Locations: dovish, SOXX

☆ S&P 500 closes at record high for first time in two years
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The S&P 500 index closed Friday at a record high, fueled by surging tech stocks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The benchmark index closed at 4,839.81, besting its previous high of 4,796.56, reached on January 3, 2022. Earlier in the trading session, the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 4,832.17, topping its previous intraday high of 4,818.62, reached more than two years ago, on January 4, 2022. After a rocky start to the year, the S&P 500 has found its footing and is up about 1.5% in 2024. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high close in December as investors cheered the Fed’s dovish tilt.

Persons: ’, Raphael Bostic, doesn’t, Christopher Waller, Austin Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: New York

☆ Dollar holds near one-month peak as dovish Fed bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar held close to a one-month peak versus major peers on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data overnight added to building expectations the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates. Australia's dollar weakened after data showed an unexpected decline in employment. Traders have trimmed the odds of a first Fed rate cut by March to 53.8%, down from 63.1% on Tuesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg there would likely be majority support among ECB officials for an interest rate cut in the summer, although she stressed they would be data-dependent. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar weakened after data showed a 65,100 drop in jobs for December, where economists had forecast a 17,600 increase.

Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sterling Organizations: Reserve, U.S, hawkish Bank, Japan, Traders, IG, Bloomberg, Bank of England, British, greenback Locations: Japan

Notably, the report suggested that inflation was not as powerful a force as it had been a few months back. These numbers point to a strong spring, especially with the Fed getting more dovish. “Both changes would support the economy and extend growth, but also likely weaken the US dollar,” Khurana says. Businesses are entering 2024 in a positive mood, according to Dun & Bradstreet’s quarterly Global Business Optimism index released on Tuesday. The National Association of Homebuilders’ sentiment index improved in January to its highest level since September.

Persons: “, ”, David Russell, Chip, ” Brij, Khurana Organizations: Federal Reserve, “, Fed, Wellington Management, National Association of Locations: York, Dun

☆ Fed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge Co-Founder and Nick Colas, Datatrek Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Waller, Vital, Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli, Nick Colas Organizations: Research

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ Dollar advances as traders weigh rate cut expectations, eyes on data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders are back projecting cuts of 160 bps this year, up from expectations of 140 bps last week. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said the risk is that Waller could push back on market pricing for a March cut and show a lack of urgency to normalize policy. "That said, should he even remotely validate market pricing, then we should see U.S. 2-year bond yields fall further. Markets are pricing around 120 bps of rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first one most likely in May. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.43% to $0.6632, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.39% to $0.6176.

Persons: Hamish Pepper, Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Weston, Bank's Joachim Nagel Organizations: U.S, Federal, Bank of Japan, Fed, Traders, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Dollar down on day, but off lows after hotter than expected inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.

Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S

☆ Dan Niles says the 'rubber hits the road' this earnings season for megacap tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hedge fund investor Dan Niles said megacap tech stocks that led the market rally last year will have to start proving themselves this upcoming earnings season. Apple shares slid 6% last week after several firms downgraded the stock, citing weaker iPhone sales. On Monday, however, Apple shares rallied more than 2% as investors bought the dip in tech stocks. Niles said there will be opportunities in megacap tech stocks this earnings season for choosy investors. You're going to actually have to get the fundamentals right to make money."

Persons: Dan Niles, Niles, CNBC's, he's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation mission accomplished?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Justin Sullivan, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: San Anselmo , California

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation goal in view
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: Rosemead , California

We're selling 25 shares of Caterpillar (CAT) at roughly $293. Following Wednesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 290 shares of CAT, decreasing its weighting 2.82% from 3.05%. We're trimming some Caterpillar shares with the stock trading at a new all-time high. The stock made a strong move over the summer as those fears proved overblown and the company posted blowout earnings . However, raising a little extra cash when the market is this overbought is a discipline we are unwilling to break.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, we've, It's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Caterpillar, CAT, Bears, Federal, CNBC

(PRO subscribers can view the official 2024 strategist survey here . ) "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," Kostin wrote. Other Wall Street firms with similarly bullish forecasts include Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets, which each have S & P 500 price targets of 5,100. Barclays' Venu Krishna was even more bearish, anticipating the S & P 500 would fall to 3,725. Entering the penultimate trading week of the year, the S & P 500 is almost 23% higher in 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced almost 42%.

Persons: —, Stocks, Sam Stovall, Monday, Stovall, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, America's Savita Subramanian, JPMorgan's, Bujas, Morgan Stanley, BofA's Subramanian —, Venu Krishna, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Dow Industrials Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Goldman, Oppenheimer Asset Management, Citigroup, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Nvidia, Microsoft, Barclays, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's

☆ Goldman already raised its 2024 forecast because of market surge — now sees S&P 500 going to 5,100
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-18 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs is already raising its 2024 stock market forecast, and the new year isn't even here yet. The S & P 500 rallied 5% in the past month to already meet Kostin's original 2024 forecast of 4,700 for the new year that he gave back in November . "Lifting our 12-month S & P 500 target to 5100 as inflation falls, the Fed turns dovish, and real yields plunge," wrote Kostin in a note Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which scared equity investors by rising above 5% back in October, has tumbled to 3.9%. According to Goldman, the typical member of this basket will return four times as much as the median S & P 500 member but with the same level of volatility.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Treasury

☆ We're increasing our price targets on 5 stocks and changing our rating on one of them
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Club on Friday is changing the rating and price target on one of our favorite semiconductor stocks, while updating the price targets on four other names in the portfolio to reflect recent earnings, new internal developments and broader economic forces. We're increasing our price target on Broadcom to $1,200 a share, up from $1,000 to reflect the strong quarter it reported last week. We are increasing our price target on Costco Wholesale to $680 a share, up from $630. We are increasing our price target on Palo Alto Networks to $320 a share, up from $300. The move comes after raising our price target earlier in the month to $300, from $280.

Persons: It's, Carrier, Wells Fargo, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brent Lewin Organizations: Broadcom, VMware, Costco, Costco Wholesale, Honeywell, U.S, Palo Alto Networks, Federal, CNBC, Apple, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Palo, Wells, Wells Fargo, PANW

☆ S&P 500 rises to 20-month high with a soft landing in sight. Can investors finally relax?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The S & P 500 , which had consolidated with a low-volatility sideways slide for three weeks, nudged to a new 20-month high just above 4600, almost precisely a 20% year-to-date gain. Just because the S & P 500 is at 4600 and Federal-funds futures markets project high odds of several rate cuts next year, it doesn't mean the former is reliant on the latter. Yet — just relax — in seven of the past 12 years, the S & P 500 went on to surpass this year-ahead analyst composite target. It's pretty popular to cast doubt on the achievability of the consensus 11.8% forecast S & P 500 earnings growth for 2024. A broadening beyond 2023's growth leadership is necessary for further S & P 500 gains.

Persons: YTD, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Butters, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Fed, Bank of America, Wall, Merck, Pfizer, Citi, Treasury

☆ Fed is 'disconnected' from reality, must cut rates 5 times next year, portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chris Wattie | ReutersThe Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid tipping the U.S. economy into a recession, according to portfolio manager Paul Gambles. "I think Fed policy is now so disconnected from economic factors and from reality that you can't make any assumptions about when the Fed is going to wake up and and start smelling the amount of damage that they're actually causing to the economy," Gambles warned. The current U.S. policy rate stands at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as early as March 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The perception now being that the U.S. central bank is effectively done raising interest rates.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Paul Gambles, CNBC's, Gambles, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, MBMG, Traders, Federal, Financial, Labor Locations: U.S

☆ ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

☆ Morning Bid: RBA holds and the dollar pauses, too
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets are pricing in bigger rate cuts by the Fed next year than by any other major or emerging market central bank. But will the Fed cut rates by 125 basis points next year? Doubts about that prospect have for now put the brakes on dollar selling. Gold , which shot to a record high in Asia's notoriously thin morning hours on Monday, has recoiled sharply.

Persons: David Gray, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Bank, Aussie, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, U.S, Europe, Tokyo

☆ Wolfe Research says investors are too optimistic and sees the S&P 500 dropping 8% in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If this year's early Santa Claus rally is any indication, investors may be getting too optimistic about the prospects of a rate cut early next year, according to Wolfe Research. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 hit fresh year-to-date closing highs on Friday. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD chart Investors have been sending stocks flying on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt more dovish policy next year. Senyek's base line scenario for 2024 sees these factors bringing the S & P 500 to 4,250 by year-end 2024, implying about an 8% drop. His bull case takes the S & P 500 up to 4,995 for a 9% gain, while his bear case calls stocks to plunge 22% to 3,565.

Persons: Santa Claus, Chris Senyek, Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Traders, pharma Locations: Santa, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: 'Premature' to talk about cutting rates?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. S&P 500 soars to 2023 highThe S&P 500 rose 0.59% Friday and closed at a new high for 2023, extending a strong rally from November. Uber gets a spot in the S&P 500Uber will be added to the S&P 500 Index, replacing Sealed Air Corp. [PRO] China's version of Spotify is 'underappreciated,' Morgan Stanley saysTencent Music Entertainment "music value [is] still underappreciated," Morgan Stanley says even as the company is convincing more people in China to pay for music.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Uber, Morgan Stanley, Tencent Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, Sealed Air Corp, Spotify Locations: West Coast . Alaska, China, U.S

☆ Gold prices sprint to all-time peak on Fed rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices bolted to an all-time high above $2,100 per ounce on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks elevated traders' confidence that the U.S. central bank could cut interest rates early next year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing bullion. Investor focus now shift to U.S. non-farm payrolls data — a key employment report due on Friday, that could influence the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $25.45 per ounce, palladium fell 0.4% to $929.93 per ounce, and platinum was down 0.1% at $999.35.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, we're, Tim Waterer, Waterer, CME's, Christopher Waller Organizations: Aurum, KCM Trade, Traders, U.S, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Too early to be betting on rate cuts?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Fed Chair Powell says too 'premature' to cut ratesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday it was too early to declare victory over inflation and beat back on market views for interest rate cuts next year. Evergrande liquidation court hearing pushedBeleaguered Chinese property firm Evergrande 's court hearing over its possible liquidation was postponed to Jan. 29, sending its shares up over 9%. A Hong Kong court hearing was initially set for Monday over a petition from a creditor seeking to wind up the company.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Bitcoin, Evergrande Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Hong Locations: Asia, Pacific, FTX, Hong Kong

Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. Many will argue that the U.S. bond and rates markets have gotten far too carried away, and that the Fed will not ease so quickly and aggressively next year. But Fed policymakers are now in their 'blackout period' ahead of the December 12-13 policy meeting. In stark contrast to the Fed, rates futures markets are barely pricing in any rate cuts from the RBA next year at all.

Persons: Wall, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Treasury, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea

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