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☆ There is room for the US housing market to run, says fund manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is room for the US housing market to run, says fund managerAnthony Doyle from Firetrail Investments explains why he thinks it "pays to take a contrarian view" and continue investing in the U.S. homebuilders sector.

Persons: Anthony Doyle Organizations: Firetrail Investments Locations: U.S, homebuilders

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA

☆ Analysis: Contrarians bet U.S. energy shares will shake doldrums in 2023's second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That has hurt shares of energy companies: after soaring in 2022, the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) has lost nearly 10% this year, making it the index’s worst performing sector. Most investors believe central bank interest rate hikes to fight inflation should keep a lid on global growth for the time being. Yet some are positioning for a rebound in energy shares, drawn by attractive valuations and signs the U.S. will continue to stave off an economic downturn. Stan Majcher, a portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley, is among those counting on oil prices rebounding due to tight supply. “If you don’t get it, the path of least resistance is for oil prices to move much higher," he said.

Persons: Brent, David Lefkowitz, Baker Hughes, Stan Majcher, Refinitiv, Charles Lemonides, Sam Peters, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, UBS Wealth Management, UBS, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, . West Texas, Brent, U.S, drillers, Hotchkis, Wiley, Kosmos Energy Ltd, Bank of America Survey, Hess Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Saudi Arabia

☆ Stock market heads into the second half with near 15% total return so far in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 had just sustained its worst calendar-year loss in half a generation. Textbook consolidation Last week's modest 1.4% decline in the S & P 500 did little to alter either the favorable underlying market trend or the notion that more consolidation might be in store. The median year-end S & P 500 target among Street strategists is 4250, 100 points below Friday's close, and the most-bullish forecast is for about a 5% further gain. And just as the market's performance has been skewed toward these hit hyper-cap tech stocks, so is the S & P 500's valuation. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year Big picture: The market this year has chewed through plenty of perfectly valid excuses to falter without doing so.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jeremy Schwartz, Lori Calvasina, we'll Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Ned Davis Research, New, Nvidia, General Motors, Whirlpool, RBC Capital Locations: DC

☆ BofA's Hartnett admits 'bears like us have been wrong,' sees these conditions ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has joined his colleagues in admitting he was too pessimistic in his outlook for stocks this year. In his weekly note to clients examining the flow of money through the market, Hartnett took a jab at himself, labeling his outlook the product of "A Bear of Very Little Brain." Further, he outlined several reasons why "bears like us have been wrong" in the first half of 2023. On the economy, "nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor" while the labor market was "impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world," Hartnett wrote. These include deflation, emerging market stocks and "hard-landing plays" such as REITs and commercial real estate, banks, small-cap stocks, oil and China.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Savita Subramanian Organizations: of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed & US, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Labor Locations: Silicon, China

☆ Samsung among companies starting to draft ChatGPT policies for workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Rachel Curry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

In May, Samsung banned the use of generative AI tools after the company discovered an employee uploaded sensitive code to ChatGPT. This legal mindset persists, which is one of the reasons Ironclad moved forward with generative AI policy so swiftly. Singh said, "It truly needs to be a multi-stakeholder dialogue," including teams from policy, AI, risk and compliance and legal. Creating a generative AI policy is also a good opportunity for companies to scrutinize all of their technology policies, including implementation, change management, and long-term usage. It can also include using generative AI tools as foundational content for work due to the fact it creates inherent bias.

Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Jason Boehmig, Boehmig, Navrina Singh, Singh, Vince Lynch, Lynch, it's Organizations: Samsung, Nurphoto, Getty, Companies, National AI Advisory, Intelligence, National Institute of Standards, Technology, European Union

☆ Real-estate tycoon Jeff Greene made $800 million shorting the last housing bubble. He explains how John Paulson inspired the contrarian bet, and how he's protecting his wealth today.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeff Greene told the story of his lucrative wager against the mid-2000s housing bubble to Insider. John Paulson told Greene about his iconic trade, which "Big Short" investor Michael Burry also made. Jeff Greene, one of the few investors to successfully short the mid-2000s housing bubble, expects the US economy to slump and home prices to drop. Warren Buffett, during Congressional testimony in 2010, underscored how contrarian it was to bet against the housing market at that time. "The Cassandras were there, but who's going to listen to John Paulson in 2005 or 2006, or Michael Burry?"

Persons: Jeff Greene, John Paulson, Greene, Michael Burry, Paulson, Paulson's, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Federal, Forbes, Berkshire Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida

☆ Goldman Sachs lowers the chance the U.S. could slide into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Convinced the threat from a banking crisis has largely passed, Goldman Sachs has raised the chances the U.S. economy can avoid a recession. With the debt issue resolved and banking stresses abated, Goldman now sees the path to a continued expansion, albeit a slow one, more clearly. First, the tail risk of a disruptive debt ceiling fight has disappeared," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman, said in a client note. "Meanwhile, the economy is getting a sizable boost from the recovery in real disposable income and the stabilization in the housing market," Hatzius said. Most economists expect the U.S. will experience at least a mild recession later this year or early in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, nonfarm, Goldman isn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Goldman, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Silicon, U.S

☆ Bernstein just released one of its famous 'blackbook' research reports. This one is about how to invest in AI. Here are the highlights.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Monica Melton | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Bernstein analysts weigh in on how the market for AI is likely to develop. Brokerage firm Bernstein is famous for its "Blackbook" research tomes that dive deeply into important topics for investors. Since ChatGPT arrived last year, generative AI technology has taken the world -- and stock markets -- by storm. "The speed at which Artificial Intelligence (AI) in general and OpenAI's GPT suite in particular has, in the last six months, taken over seemingly every conversation was the genesis of this Blackbook," Bernstein analysts wrote recently in an email to clients. The firm's analysts identified where, why, and how AI is going to create, destroy, and transfer value in different industries.

Persons: Bernstein, ChatGPT Organizations: Intelligence

☆ Premarket stocks: Main Street traders are taking big risks. They might not pay off
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But Main Street isn’t listening. New data from TD Ameritrade shows that retail investors shrugged off US debt ceiling uncertainty and recessionary fears last month as they increased their exposure to markets. That index aggregates Main Street investor positions and activity to measure how they’re positioned in the market. Retail investors also piled out of AI and tech stocks as the sectors surged in May, opting instead to put their money into riskier bets. But these trades are risky and while an institutional investor might lose their job for making a big mistake, a Main Street trader could lose their shirt.

Persons: New York CNN — “, recessionary, Dow, they’ve, Alex Coffey, Ameritrade, “, ”, Coffey, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Gary Gensler, Hanna Ziady, Willie Walsh, ” Walsh, Walsh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, First Republic Bank, Nasdaq, Research, CNN, PayPal, Disney, Coffey Retail, US Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, Global, International Air Transport Association, Airlines Locations: New York, USA, bro

☆ Further stock market advance depends on rally broadening out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The advance in those indexes, particularly the S & P 500, has been very uneven, even with last week's broad rally. Lowry Research analysts noted that investors simply in the S & P 500, or in tech stocks, were clearly in an up market. Lowry noted that 48.2% of all operating-company only stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week highs, which Lowry and others define as bear market territory. That's far worse than the 32% that were in bear market territory on February 2, when the S & P 500 was at a new high for the year. "Bull markets are hard-pressed to last when the number of stocks entering 'bear market territory' grows," Lowry noted.

Persons: You'd, Chadha, SPX, Venu Krishna, Lowry, Russell, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Street Journal, Lowry Research, LPL

☆ Tech shares see biggest-ever weekly inflow on AI boom-BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks in general saw $14.8 billion of inflows, the largest weekly inflow since February. Investors are chasing a "summer rip tide into tech and stocks", BofA analysts wrote in a note, which referred to an AI "baby bubble", though they said they themselves remain bearish due to the impact of higher interest rates causing liquidity to tighten. Cash funds, normally in demand when investors are nervous, also saw inflows of $11.3 billion, their sixth straight week of inflows, while gold funds saw $200 million of outflows, according to BofA. They describe the trade as: "Buy HSI sell AI". Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper and David HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoFa, Stocks, Cash, BofA, Alun John, Amanda Cooper, David Holmes Organizations: Technology, BofA Global, Tech, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Hang Seng Tech, Thomson Locations: China

☆ Bank of America highlights seven stocks that have driven most of this year's market gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Most of the stock market gains this year have been powered by a handful of tech-focused names that have posted outsized increases, according to Bank of America. Call them the S & P 7 — or, as the firm's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, labels them, the "Magnificent Seven." Together, the stock bloc has contributed 8.8 percentage points of the S & P 500 's total 10% increase, as of Thursday's close, for all of 2023. In May alone, the seven stocks posted a gain of 16%, thanks to Nvidia's earnings-fueled acceleration. "Monetary policy remains the 'big dog' & set to tighten in coming months… biggest reason we are not capitulating into risk despite price action," Hartnett wrote.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Jim Cramer, bitcoin, Hartnett, it's Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Big Tech, Federal Reserve Locations: China

☆ The AI craze drove investors to pour a record $8.5 billion into tech funds last week, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors poured a record $8.5 billion of cash into tech funds last week, Bank of America found. The AI "baby bubble" has become the dominant theme for markets, strategist Michael Hartnett said. Tech funds brought in a record $8.5 billion in the week ending May 31, the bank found. Contrarian-minded investors should sell AI stocks and buy shares in Hong Kong-listed companies, which could benefit from China's efforts to revive its faltering economy, Hartnett said. Read more: Tech stocks are outperforming their rivals by the most since the dot-com bubble

Persons: Michael Hartnett, —, Bill Ackman, Stanley, Hartnett, Read Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Service, Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Federal Reserve Locations: ChatGPT, There's, Hong Kong

☆ Next questions for markets center on its skinny rally and the chance of a Fed derailment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The underlying numbers in the report today show that the Fed can probably feel comfortable with maybe one more rate hike, and then pausing." Or, at least those concerns were true until Friday's explosive rally, when more than six New York Stock Exchange issues rose for every one that fell, and all 11 sectors in the S & P 500 gained. Friday's advance carried the S & P 500 to its highest since Aug. 18, 2022, when the benchmark closed at 4,283.74. Another favorable straw in the wind may simply be the fact that the 11.2% rally in the S & P 500, just since the mid-March lows accompanying the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, is so hated and mistrusted. Week-ahead calendar Monday 9:45 a.m.: S & P Global Services PMI (May) 10 a.m.: Durable goods and factory orders (April) 10 a.m.: ISM services PMI (May) Tuesday Earnings: J.M.

Persons: Megan Horneman, Canaccord Genuity, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Brown, Forman, — CNBC's Alexander Harring, Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Verdence Capital Advisors, Nvidia, New York Stock Exchange, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America, P Global Services PMI, PMI, Growers, Ciena, GameStop Locations: Broad, 2H23, Silicon

☆ Extreme investor bearishness suggests stock market gains of 16% are coming in the next 12 months, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

History says that when investors are as bearish on stocks as they are now, big gains are ahead, according to BofA. Bearish stock allocations are a strong contrarian indicator for future gains. The S&P 500 saw gains over the next 12 months 94% of the time when investors were this pessimistic. Interest rates could also soon drop as the Federal Reserve gets a handle on inflation, strategists added, which will supplement stock gains. The S&P 500 is up about 10% year-to-date, gaining despite a spate of bank failures, recession fears, and a US debt ceiling fight.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Wall, Federal Reserve

☆ Opinion | Political Correctness Used to Be Funny. Now It’s No Joke.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Pamela Paul | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Yet more unfathomable: that there would be any affection for anything about that era’s nascent political correctness with its penchant for words like “womyn” and other idealistic but often ill-conceived efforts to reimagine the dictionary. In the wake of my 30th college reunion last month at Brown University, a notorious locus for politically correct thought back in the day, those emergent P.C. At that time, word purification rituals were experienced all in good fun or at least, in good fun-making. Even at its peak, ’90s-style political correctness was at least as much self-satire as a movement to be reckoned with. With the exception of its most earnest practitioners — strategically isolated within semiotics departments and grad school dormitories — undergrads from across the political spectrum considered political correctness a passing fad or an attempt at academic esotericism rather than an actual recommendation for how to comport yourself in public.

Persons: Ethan Hawke’s, —, changin, ’, ” Organizations: Brown University, Brown Daily Herald Locations: Brown

☆ And the Winners Are … ‘Succession’ Fans Who Correctly Chose the New C.E.O.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Wilson Wong | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Ultimately, none succeeded, as the company was sold to Lukas Matsson, a Swedish tech billionaire. But the perennial question of who would take the throne introduced a friendly, low-stakes competition to the viewing experience. Katie Way, a journalist in Brooklyn, did not watch the first three seasons of “Succession,” but she still put her name (and $20) into a bracket pool with nine other people. “I guess I’m a little contrarian.”By the end of the episode, Ms. Way and the other contestant had each claimed their $100. When asked what she would spend her winnings on, she said, “I probably spent more money buying wine bottles for the watch parties, so I’ll probably spend it on more food for future watch parties.”

Persons: venal Roy, Kendall, Roman, Shiv, Connor, Logan, Lukas Matsson, ”, Nelson Rose, Katie Way, “, I’ll Locations: Swedish, Brooklyn

☆ 'It's not a bubble yet': Wharton's Jeremy Siegel predicts Big Tech boom fueled by A.I.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wharton professor and renowned economist Jeremy Siegel is bullish on a Big Tech boom fueled by artificial intelligence despite concerns of a bubble. He noted that he has been getting questions around whether it would lead to a repeat of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. Economist David Rosenberg, known for his contrarian views, had predicted that the current AI boom could collapse like late 1990s dot-com stocks. The dotcom bubble burst when capital dried up after a massive adoption of the internet and a proliferation of available venture capital into internet-based companies, especially startups that had no track record of success. "First, there was excitement about AI and Nvidia ratified that excitement with blowout earnings.

☆ 'Price bubble' in A.I. stocks will wreck rally, economist David Rosenberg predicts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economist David Rosenberg, a bear known for his contrarian views, believes enthusiasm surrounding AI has become a major distraction from recession risks. "No question that we have a price bubble," the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday. "[This] looks very weird," said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009. Just seven mega-caps have accounted for 90% of this year's price performance," Rosenberg wrote. While mega cap tech outperforms, Rosenberg sees ominous trading activity in banks , consumer discretionary stocks and transports .

Persons: David Rosenberg, CNBC's, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Jensen Huang Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft

☆ Biden bets DeSantis’ ‘Florida blueprint’ will help him flip the Sunshine State and win reelection
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Edward-Isaac Dovere | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

Shevrin Jones, a Florida state senator and member of the Biden campaign’s advisory board of elected officials, said he’s eager to tell the country the story of what he’s seen under DeSantis’ leadership. Biden and DeSantis and their wives walk to meet with local residents affected by Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida, on October 5, 2022. The voter registration advantage Florida Democrats had when President Barack Obama narrowly won the state in 2012 has flipped to Republicans. An adviser to the former New York City mayor told CNN that so far, there has been no outreach to Bloomberg’s operation from either the Biden campaign or the DNC. There was also a fleeting belief that they could push Biden over the top in Florida – though Trump ended up carrying the state by 3 points.

☆ The manager behind an award-winning fund that's beaten 99% of peers over 5 years shares the investing strategy that's brought him so much success — and 6 ways he's investing now
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But instead of basking in the success and recognition he's received recently, Miller told Insider that he's most excited about the outside-the-box investing strategy that he's concocted. Become a champion investor by playing defense — and making these 6 movesThe investing strategy Miller uses is related to an old sports adage: offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships. The defensive component of Miller's fund is more sophisticated. Currently, Miller's fund is following this method by selling bond futures contracts, which is a hedge against higher interest rates. If Markowitz saw Miller's fund, he may be proud.

☆ Americans view gold as a better investment than stocks for the first time since 2013. Here's why that's a good sign for the stock market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More Americans view gold as a better investment than stocks for the first time since 2013. That's a good sign for the stock market, according to the Carson Group's Ryan Detrick. "From a contrarian point of view, this is another reason to think the path is higher for stocks," Detrick said. Meanwhile, Americans that view stocks as the best long-term investment fell to 18% this year from 25% last year, representing its lowest level since 2011. And that negative sentiment is the fuel that could ultimately drive the stock market higher from here.

☆ Sam Zell, billionaire real estate investor, dies
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

He had a golden touch with real estate, and got his start managing apartment buildings as a college student. His father was a wholesale jeweler who dabbled successfully in real estate investment and the stock market. His first successes in real estate came while he was a student at the University of Michigan. After the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, Zell went on a buying spree of real estate properties. He also encouraged institutional investors to pool their money for commercial real estate in the early '90s when it was on the outs.

☆ Get ready for a sharp rally if debt ceiling is solved, JPMorgan tells clients
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. stocks may be setting up for a sharp late spring/early summer rally if the U.S. debt ceiling debate is rendered moot, either by an agreement or a decision to kick the can until after Labor Day, a note from JPMorgan’s trading desk said Thursday. That's a contrarian view running counter to the market's latest doldrums, but JPMorgan said the economic backdrop plus the way in which professional investors are positioned may add fuel to any potential advance. The so-called pain trade that catches the greatest number of investors off guard "is higher, specifically if led by cyclical stocks such as energy, financials, industrials and materials. JPMorgan also looks for a potential reversal in financial stocks if deposits don't flee. It notes that the regional bank ETF is 8% below its April average and 64% beneath its year-to-date high and that short interest in financials has ballooned, possibly paving the way for a huge short squeeze.

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