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As the S & P 500 's year-to-date rally nears 20%, some investors have questioned whether stocks could be nearing a tipping point. Here's what Citi, TS Lombard and the Wells Fargo Investment Institute advise. More gains to come for U.S. stocks: Citi Citi in a July 23 note said that while in the early months of 2023, the bull market was "very narrow," it believes markets could recover more broadly soon. The bank added that real yields could reach 4% above inflation over the next five years, "therefore, buying bonds in lieu of cash is advisable." Buying bonds would allow investors to lock in today's bond yields, but real yields would rise if inflation falls.
Persons: VIX, Wells, Lombard Organizations: Federal, Citi, TS Lombard, Wells, Investment Institute, Citi Citi, Citi Research, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo, Brazil, Mexico, India
The Wall Street bank's Conviction List comprises its top buy-rated stocks that it expects to outperform. Goldman gave Baidu's U.S.-listed shares a 12-month price target of $197, and its Hong Kong-listed shares a price target of 193 Hong Kong dollars. Shift4 Payments American payment processing company Shift4 Payments is also on Goldman's conviction list. "Its refreshed, modern restaurant POS [point of sale] platform and new verticals should drive market share growth," Goldman analysts wrote. Goldman gave Warner Bros Discovery, which is on its conviction list, a price target of $20, or potentially more than 50% upside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Baidu Goldman, Goldman, Johnson, Warner Bros Discovery Goldman, WBD, Solar Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Baidu, Baidu's U.S, Hong, Johnson Controls, Warner Bros Discovery Locations: China, Hong Kong
One global chipmaker is set to benefit from an "outsized growth opportunity" on the back of the artificial intelligence trend, says Richard Clode, fund manager at Janus Henderson Investors. "Ultimately, when you look out in three years time, your iPhone is going to have to have a huge amount of AI capability. Clode manages the Horizon Global Technology Leaders Fund and the Horizon Sustainable Future Technologies Fund. Top holdings in his funds include chipmakers Nvidia and TSMC , payments giants Mastercard and Visa and a range of Big Tech stocks. The Horizon Global Technology Leaders Fund was up around 34% in the six months to the end of June, while the Horizon Sustainable Future Technologies Fund was 25% higher.
Persons: Richard Clode, Janus Henderson, CNBC's, Clode Organizations: Janus Henderson Investors, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Horizon Global Technology, Fund, Technologies, Nvidia, Mastercard, Visa, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Global Technology
Shares of ASML have soared this year on the buzz around semiconductor firms and artificial intelligence. He added that the risk posed by the China restrictions represents about 5% of its revenue and backlog. But he described ASML as a very high quality business that will benefit from the growth of the semiconductor market. He predicts that semiconductor market revenue will be worth about $1 trillion in 2030. Analysts covering the company gave its Netherlands-listed shares potential average upside of nearly 13%.
Persons: ASML, Trent Masters, Masters, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Samsung, CNBC, UBS, ASML, Trent, NVIDIA, Analysts Locations: Netherlands, U.S, China, Alphinity
U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.
Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
U.S. markets are "overdue" a 10% correction, with stocks largely in overbought territory, according to James Demmert, chief investment officer of Main Street Research. "We would argue that yes, we're closer to the end of the bear market. Some investors do not consider it the end of a bear market until the S & P 500 reaches a new high. Its all-time closing high is 4,796.56; the S & P 500 was trading around 4,510 Monday. Three stocks to buy In the event of a near-term market correction, investors should have "some dry powder ready to go," said Demmert.
Persons: James Demmert, Demmert, we're, CNBC's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Research, CNBC, Mitsui, Devices Locations: Japan, France, Germany, U.S
The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.
Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana
Investors are piling into electric vehicle stocks after the latest Tesla numbers showed it beat expectations for vehicle deliveries. Vanda Research in a Thursday note said it's seeing signs of some rotation from AI stocks to EVs. "We expect to see more retail demand for EV stocks going forward," the note said, highlighting "laggards" such as Nio , Li and Plug in particular. Its base case for China-made EVs implies 38% annual offshore sales growth through 2030. EV stocks with upside To see which EV stocks are expected to continue to rise, CNBC Pro screened two ETFs on FactSet: the KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility Index ETF and the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF .
Persons: Li, Morgan Stanley, BYD, Tesla, Bernstein, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, John Melloy, Fred Imbert Organizations: Vanda Research, EV, CNBC Pro, KraneShares Electric Vehicles, Global, Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF, Geely Automobile Locations: China, New York, Milan, Paris
Morgan Stanley has named a slew of Chinese stocks it says are set to outperform, despite current market conditions. Baidu has the highest R & D mix compared to peers in tech innovation over the years," said Morgan Stanley. NetEase Morgan Stanley pointed to NetEase 's strong game pipeline, and expects margins to improve as a result of non-game segments cutting losses, among other factors. Star Power Semiconductor Morgan Stanley also named one semiconductor stock: China-listed Star Power Semiconductor. It gave Star Power a price target of 420 Chinese yuan ($57.8), or potential upside of around 80%.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Alibaba Morgan Stanley, NetEase Morgan Stanley, Star Power Semiconductor Morgan Stanley, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Alpha, Baidu, Tencent, Entertainment, Music Entertainment, Hong, Star Power Semiconductor, Power Semiconductor, Power, China 5G, Semiconductor Locations: China, U.S, Hong Kong
"The US-led equity rebound in 1H 2023 was unusually concentrated in the so-called 'magnificent seven' mega-cap tech stocks. Other artificial intelligence-themed stocks broadly benefited from the excitement around its long-term potential as well, such as semiconductor stocks," said Cheung. He added that was reflected in the top performing Morningstar categories, which were U.S. large-cap growth equity, technology sector equity, and Taiwan equity — based on category average returns. Here are the top performing, actively managed equity funds in the first half of the year, according to data from Morningstar. Here are some stocks that appeared most often in the top 10 holdings of the funds, with potential upside to price targets and buy ratings, according to FactSet.
Persons: Bryan Cheung, Julius Baer, Cheung Organizations: Morningstar, CNBC Pro, Investors Locations: Swiss, Taiwan, U.S, Argentine, Asia
Goldman Sachs is positive on a number of Asian markets right now, despite what it expects to be a "subdued" third quarter of the year. He told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" last week that he's positive on Japan, Korea and China in particular. Goldman expects 24% earnings-per-share growth over the next three years, driving its prediction that Japan's Topix index will reach 2,500, a nearly 8% increase from Monday's close. In South Korea, Goldman expects a profit recovery driven by a "positive inflection" in DRAM pricing. The following six stocks all appeared on the screen and are on Goldman's conviction list of top buy-rated stocks:
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sunil Koul, CNBC's, Koul, there's, Goldman Organizations: Asia Pacific, Nikkei, Shenzhen Component Locations: Japan, Korea, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, South Korea, Asia, Pacific
Among global stocks, Japan was the top performer, with shares up over 16% year-to-date at the mid-year, according to data compiled by Julius Baer, while European stocks gained 7.47%. All of the stocks have a buy rating from at least 60% of analysts covering them. They are also well-loved by analysts, with a more-than 70% buy rating and over 30% potential upside. Baidu also appears on CNBC Pro's screen, with 32% potential upside and a 74% buy rating. Super Hi, the international operator of the wildly popular Chinese hotpot chain Haidilao, also has among the highest potential upside at 51%.
Persons: Julius Baer, Buffett, Morgan Stanley, bullish Organizations: CNBC Pro, Chrysler, Baidu, CNBC, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment Locations: Japan, China, Swiss
That's despite Indian stocks already soaring, with the country's benchmark indexes BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 soaring to new record highs on Friday, according to Refinitiv data. He said that Indian stocks have a 16% compound annual return over the last 20 years in local currency terms, and 13% in dollar terms. It also has a high proportion of what Goldman analysts dub "multibagger" stocks, according to Koul. Goldman Sach screened 25 large-cap Indian stocks for those with an attractive growth and valuation profile. Four banks meet its criteria: HDFC Bank , ICICI Bank , State Bank of India and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sunil Koul, CNBC's, Koul, That's, Goldman, Banks, Goldman Sach, Larsen, Toubro, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Asia Pacific, CNBC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, U.S . Global, SBI, UltraTech, Growers Locations: India, U.S
Health care is just one area to consider, according to Saurymper, who manages Pacific Asset Management's Longevity & Social Change Fund. As well as health care and pharmaceutical stocks, its holdings span fitness and nutrition, personal care, aesthetics and financials. "Now I think about health care along the lines of units of health care, rather than a drug. Investing in companies that leverage technology to deliver efficient health care is also crucial in cutting costs, he added. Education Looking beyond more obvious aging themes, the fund manager said education and well-being also offer investors a major opportunity.
Persons: Dani Saurymper, Saurymper, Eli Lilly, They're, it's, There's, CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: CNBC, Alzheimer's, Tech, Apple, Apple Watch, CVS Locations: U.S
Elsewhere, the U.K. is predicted to have the highest inflation out of all advanced economies this year. The country reported consumer prices that rose by an annual 8.7% in May – hotter than expected. They were mostly energy or financial stocks. They offer the highest dividend yields on the list, at more than 10%. Financial services firm Fifth Third Bancorp and insurance company Fidelity National Financial also made the screen, with dividend yields of around 5%.
Persons: Devon, , Jeff Cox Organizations: CNBC Pro, Natural Resources, Devon Energy, EOG Resources, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fidelity National Financial Locations: U.S, OPEC
Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, has a bold market call: that oil prices could soar more than 100% in the next few years. The group expects global oil demand to hit 110 million barrels a day in about 20 years , pushing the world's energy demand up by 23%. Others have also taken a bullish stance on oil prices over recent weeks. Nevertheless, it said: "We believe that, at some point in the coming weeks, market fundamentals will drive the oil market. Nuttall likes Cenovus Energy and MEG Energy .
Persons: Bill Smead, Smead, CNBC's, Brent, Eric Nuttall, Nuttall, Warren Buffett, – CNBC's Ying Shan Lee Organizations: Smead Capital Management, OPEC, Ninepoint Partners, Saudi, Rystad Energy, Energy, Fund, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Cenovus, MEG Energy Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, Europe
There's one stock that resonates the most for fund manager Dani Saurymper as social trends shift amid an aging population. As such, it's well placed to plug the "massive skills gap" in the health care industry, according to Saurymper. As well as health care and pharmaceutical stocks, its holdings span fitness and nutrition, personal care, aesthetics and financials. "Now I think about health care along the lines of units of health care, rather than a drug. However, key industries exposed to the aging population go beyond the challenges of aging, he added.
Persons: Dani Saurymper, Adtalem, Saurymper, There's Organizations: CNBC Locations: It's, U.S
So if you had $50,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? He recommends the following: 35% to Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF; 25% to options trades; 15% to SPDR S & P 500 ETF; 15% to ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF ; 5% to iShares Russell 2000 ETF ; and 5% cash. He added that he would look to cash in on artificial intelligence via the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF. He broke down his 40% (or $20,000) stock allocation this way: $10,000 into U.S. stocks, $5,000 into Europe, and $5,000 into Asian emerging market stocks. Hedge against volatility Pannell, who would have a 15% hedge reserve for the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF, said investors need some downside coverage.
Persons: they're, Jay Hatfield, Ryan Pannell, ProShares, iShares Russell, Victor Kuoch, hasn't, Pannell, Wade Guenther, Treasurys Raymond Bridges, CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: CNBC, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tech, , Condors, Wilshire, Bridges Capital Locations: U.S . Federal, Asia, Pacific, Europe, U.S, Taiwan
China's artificial intelligence evolution is at an "inflection point" — and the country is catching up with the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley, in a separate note, flagged Baidu in particular as the best AI play in China, and the "most obvious beneficiary" of the $7.4 trillion AI opportunity in China. Baidu, China's largest search engine, owns the most extensive proprietary search data — and it's essential for the development of AI-generated content, Morgan Stanley noted. Morgan Stanley predicts that growth will be close to 50% in the next three to five years. Morgan Stanley gave Baidu a target price of $190, or 35% potential upside.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Alibaba, Tencent, Ernie, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, Stock, Baidu Locations: China, United States
U.S. stocks have been red-hot, with the S & P 500 hitting its highest level in over a year. But Steven Glass, managing director and analyst at Pella Funds Management, says U.S. markets have "run too fast, too quickly." The S & P 500 is up around 15% in the year to date, while the Nasdaq has soared about 31%. Glass said the S & P 500 earnings yield is at about 5.2% — a level similar to that of one-year Treasury bonds. That would translate to a 10 times price-to-earnings ratio for the S & P 500 — but the figure is now at 19.
Persons: Steven Glass, CNBC's, Glass, doesn't, Albemarle Organizations: Pella Funds, Nasdaq, Big Tech, CNBC, Stock, EV, China Clean Technology Locations: Pella, U.S, China
According to Tom Lee, managing partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the answer is "yes" in three areas. S & P 500 Lee said the S & P 500 has further upside into next year. He told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " that the cryptocurrency could soar to as high as $200,000, according to a predictive model his firm uses. "The idea is that over the next five years, we should see another log function increase in the network value of bitcoin," Lee said, referring to a metric the firm uses. China Lee said his firm is also optimistic on Chinese stocks, and urged investors to start to take an overweight position on the country.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, China Lee Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Metrics Locations: China
Those are the qualities that outperforming portfolio manager Jordan Cvetanovski has looked for in stocks for the past nearly 20 years. Since its inception in 2022 to May 31, his Pella Global Generations Fund has delivered nearly 20%, outperforming its benchmark — the MSCI ACWI (the MSCI's flagship global stock index) — by 7%. As an investor, Cvetanovski, who is based in Sydney, Australia, said he invests only in his own 34-stock fund, the Pella Global Generations Fund. Investing 'won't be as simple as it was' Cvetanovski said his method of investing has stayed "exactly the same" through the years. Following sustainability criteria is one of Pella Global Generations Fund's objectives.
Persons: Jordan Cvetanovski, I've, , Carmignac, Cvetanovski, IQVIA, there's, Tesla, EVs Organizations: CNBC Pro, Pengana International, Pengana Capital Group, Fund, Generations Fund, Pella Funds, 3i, Adobe, McLennan, Novo Nordisk, UnitedHealth Locations: Pella, Sydney, Australia, China, U.S, Europe
Analysts are still optimistic about some parts of the U.S. market, but some expect international markets to do better this year. The resulting stocks have buy ratings from over 65% of analysts covering them, and average price target upside of at least 30%. Two stocks stood out for their 100% buy rating from analysts and significant potential upside: Coal mining company Yancoal Australia and Hong Kong-listed ESR Group , a real estate services company. German meal kit company Hello Fresh got the highest potential upside from analysts at 82%. U.S. stocks include e-commerce giant MercadoLibre , health insurance firm Humana and pharmaceutical firm Jazz Pharmaceuticals .
Persons: Germany's Dax, Morgan Stanley, J.P, Tai Hui, Tai, Raymond Bridges, Fresh Organizations: Nikkei, Morgan Asset, Bridges Capital, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Vanguard FTSE, Index, Kansai Electric Power, JCR Pharmaceuticals, Humana, Jazz Pharmaceuticals Locations: Europe, U.S, Japan, Asia, Australia, Hong Kong
The S & P 500 has further upside going into next year, predicts Tom Lee, managing partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors. Lee said he believes that comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week are giving stocks the "green light" to rally further. "Whenever you are at a turning point for earnings, that's really when you want to be long cyclicals and essentially risk-on sectors," Lee said. I think that's why … it's a green light for stocks to continue to rally." In a separate June 14 report, Lee said he would "buy the dip on a hawkish pause" and "buy a 5% pullback in stocks."
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, that's, Powell, he's Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, BofA, Survey, Microsoft, Nvidia, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, American Express, Apple
Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley Investment Management says a "meaningful" correction may not happen right now. "But it's premature and the stock market is right now feeding off … those lower inflation month to month price," Slimmon added. Stock picks Nevertheless, there are pockets of opportunity in the market right now, according to Slimmon. He named three stocks to buy: American equipment rental company United Rentals , financial services company Ameriprise and building materials company CRH . "In my opinion, investors looking to get into the market will view the recent laggards as an opportunity to get more invested," he said of those three stocks.
Persons: it's, Andrew Slimmon, CNBC's, There's, you've, Slimmon, there's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, U.S . Federal, Federal Reserve, Stock, United Rentals Locations: bullish
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