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U.S. homeowners are sitting on a record amount of equity, but higher interest rates over the past two years have made them reluctant to tap into it. While mortgage rates don't exactly follow the Fed's rate, home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are tied to it. "Over the past 10 quarters homeowners have extracted $476B in equity, exactly half the extraction we'd expect to see under more normal circumstances. Homeowners tend to use equity for home repairs, renovation projects and large expenses, such as college tuition. More supply is coming on the market, and primary mortgage rates are higher than they were over the summer.
Persons: Andy Walden, Walden Organizations: Los Angeles , California ., ICE Mortgage Technology, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Chatsworth, Los Angeles , California, Los Angeles , California . U.S
The Fed is going to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. Labor market weakness is showing across a number of data points, she said. According to Veronica Clark, deteriorating labor dynamics will force the central bank to cut rates by 50 basis points in December. Her point has grown more evident after October's jobs report underwhelmed expectations with only 12,000 jobs added. AdvertisementThough October's unemployment rate stayed unchanged on a rounded basis, Clark noted that it was it nearly rounded to 4.2%.
Persons: Veronica Clark, It's, Clark, , Reserve isn't Organizations: Citi, Labor, Service, Reserve, Bloomberg
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesRegardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, there could be some clear winners for exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, experts say. Potential winners and losersIn the months ahead, some ETFs or funds could outperform depending on the election outlook. Exchange-traded funds have steadily gained popularity among investors, with ETF assets crossing the $10 trillion mark in September — a trend experts say is largely due to advantages like lower tax bills and fees relative to mutual funds. Exchange-traded funds are generally known for passive strategies, but there has also been a surge in actively managed ETFs, with the goal of beating the performance of broader markets. watch nowHowever, most financial advisors caution against making hasty changes to your investment portfolio based on the outcome of this election.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris —, Kim Wallace, Anu Ganti, Dow, Kristina Hooper, Harris, Invesco's Hooper, Hooper, Trump, Biden, 22V's Wallace, Wallace Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, Democratic, ETF.com, Dow Jones Indices, Big Tech, Trump, Congress, Exchange, Federal Locations: Washington, U.S,
Here's how Bank of America suggests trading a variety of Election Day outcomes. Split Republican control A Trump White House with a largely Democratic Congress is overall neutral for equities, Kwon said. Split Democratic control The status quo would be maintained with a Harris White House and a Republican Congress, Kwon said. Over the past seven election cycles, the two-week price direction for stocks was identical to one day after election day every single time. Outside of the election, Kwon said that the Fed could have ample reason to cut further.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: Bank of America, Trump, Republican, Trump White House, Democratic, Harris White, Federal
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It follows a 50-basis-point rate cut in September — the first cut in four years. CME FedWatch, which forecasts interest rate changes based on market predictions, estimated an all-but-certain 25 basis point cut as of Friday afternoon. Advertisement"Borrowers should understand that 'falling interest rates' are not the same as 'low interest rates,'" Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, said in a commentary. What are your financial plans if the Fed makes another rate cut?
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Helene, Milton, Cory Stahle, Julia Pollak, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, FedWatch, Boeing, BLS, Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed, asheffey
The yield on 10-year Treasury was last down by over six basis points, hovering around the 4.3% mark. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down by more than three basis points to 4.1661%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors braced for a busy week which will see voters head to the polls for the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Investors are also focused on the Fed's interest rate decision at the central bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Traders are were last pricing in a 99% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, U.S . House, NBC, PMI
In late-September reports, strategists at J.P. Morgan and Fitch Ratings had predicted two additional interest rate trims by the end of 2024 and expect such reductions to continue into 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at this week's November meeting at 98%. The current probability of the benchmark rate being taken down by another 25 basis points at the December meeting is 78%. "The end of financial repression, of zero interest rates and zero inflation, that era is over. Interest rates will be higher, will be challenged around the world.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Saudi Arabia —, aren't, Morgan, CNBC's Sara Eisen —, Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Morgan Stanley, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Larry Fink, " Fink, David Solomon, Ted Pick, Pick, Francis Fukuyama Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Fitch, Saudi, Future Investment Initiative, Standard Chartered, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Reuters RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, U.S, BlackRock
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading ahead of Tuesday's high-stakes U.S. presidential electionFutures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 20 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures inched about 0.1% higher. The latest poll from NBC News suggests the race is "neck and neck" between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The results could heavily affect where stocks end the year, but investors may want to brace for some near-term choppiness. Traders are pricing in 98% odds of a quarter-point cut following September's half-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Adam Parker, Jerome Powell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NXP, U.S, Treasury, NBC News, Congress, Republicans, CNBC, Super Micro, Yum Brands
Uncertainty is the key theme for markets on the eve of Election Day, but fixed income investors say there are a few opportunities to snap up solid yield even as the market holds its breath. "We are constructive on fixed income as a whole, despite these uncertainties, and we're stressing to investors that yields are really quite attractive – and the income generation we can get from fixed income right now is quite powerful," Persson added. On the municipal bond side, offerings include the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) , which has a 30-day SEC yield of 3.35%. Vanguard also has its Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB) , with a 30-day SEC yield of 3.4%. The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.01% and a net expense ratio of 0.04%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Andrew Szczurowski, Eaton, Anders Persson, Persson, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Baird Organizations: NBC News, Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal, Treasury, Muni Bond ETF, SEC, Vanguard, Bond, SPDR, MBS, Fidelity Intermediate Bond Fund, Bond Fund Locations: Washington, Nuveen
Now, the inflation rate is nearly back to normal – miraculously, without the recession and loss of millions of jobs that many predicted. Harris also gets that the economic anxiety fueled by inflation has helped boost the popularity of her opponent, former President Donald Trump. And he’s got a point: The inflation rate never exceeded 3% under Trump – a far cry from the four-decade high of 9.1% under Biden. “I will end inflation,” Trump told a roaring crowd of supporters in battleground North Carolina on Wednesday. More than two-thirds of economists (68%) surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say prices will be higher under Trump than Harris.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, It’s, Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Harris, Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, Biden, it’s, Moody’s, ” Trump, , aren’t, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, Federal Reserve, Trump, Biden, Wall Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, North Carolina, China, Mexico
For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Related storiesFor drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs. HarrisHarris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. TrumpTrump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.
Persons: Harris, Trump, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Biden, Trump Trump, — Trump, Harris Harris, , Vance, hasn't Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve, White, Trump Trump Locations: Americas
Specifically, he warned about traders taking the 10-year Treasury yield , a bond market benchmark, above 5% — a level it hasn't seen since mid-2007. To be sure, there are myriad reasons why the bond market has been in a state of tumult since mid-September, political considerations of a second Trump term being just one of them. "The bond market could easily nullify the impacts of another rate cut. That's because the bond market believes the Fed is cutting rates by too much, too soon, and is therefore raising long-term inflation expectations. It could carry "higher tariffs and mass deportations, which triggers stagflation in the US including a second inflation spike," the bank said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Chip Somodevilla, Kamala Harris, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Trump, Harris, Kumar, it's, Karen Dynan, Trump's, Peterson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fiserv, Republican National Convention, Treasury, Trump, Reserve, Bond, Yardeni Research, Sri, Kumar, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Republicans Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, United States
CNBC Daily Open: Eve of Election Day
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Voters cast their votes during early voting in the U.S. presidential election at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 3, 2024. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets climb ahead of China's parliament meetingU.S. stocks rallied Friday to kick off November, as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors watch the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and China's monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
Persons: Dow Jones, shrugged, Harris, Ting Lu, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Iowa Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Beijing, Iowa Iowa, Iowa
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen . Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Chris Weston, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Dealers, Trump, Reserve, of England, Norges Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Labor, China's National People's Congress, Reuters Locations: Asia, United States, Iowa, Treasuries, gilts, Beijing
Market analysts predicted choppy trading and sharp swings going into the US presidential election. AdvertisementMarket analysts are braced for volatility ahead of Tuesday's presidential election as traders shuffled their bets on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory. The drivers of market performance — economic growth, corporate earnings, and innovation — ultimately outshine the impact of political changes. The Trump trade is a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/ higher bond yields and stronger crypto. With one day left of this campaign, the dollar is falling, and the dollar index is at a two-week low.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, , who'll, Naeem Aslam, Joshua Mahony, Harris, Hal Cook, Hargreaves, Kathleen Brooks, Trump Organizations: Service, Republican, Democratic, Federal Reserve, Zaye, Trump, FX Locations: Iowa, United States
Whoever is elected the 47th president of the United States will start with a rare and clear advantage: a remarkably solid economy. Tuesday’s election will show how much that all matters to voters, who will soon decide which candidate they want to entrust the economy to from here. But to regular American households, it’s more of a “Yes, but” economy: Yes, the job market is strong, but my boss wants me in five days a week, and that doesn’t work for me anymore. Yes, inflation has fallen, but I can’t afford day care. Prices across the rest of the service economy were 4.7% higher overall, and medical care was up 3.9%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Spencer Platt, Yuki Iwamura, they’re, Helene, Milton, Patrick T, Fallon, Harris, , Greg Valliere, Joe Biden wasn’t, Trump, Karoline Leavitt, “ Kamala Organizations: Investment, Stock, Getty, Consumer, Bloomberg, CNBC, First Street Foundation, NBC, AGF Investments, Biden Locations: United States, Ukraine, Israel
If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, , Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed
Here are 39 quality economically sensitive stocks to buy, according to Morgan Stanley. Economically sensitive stocks, including financials and industrials, took off in anticipation of that result and caught fire after it became official. Several parts of the stock market seem to be preparing for another Trump presidency, according to Morgan Stanley. "Markets generally welcomed a reflationary playbook in 2016," Wilson wrote. AdvertisementRegardless of who's in office, Morgan Stanley outlined a list of 39 economically sensitive stocks that should do well.
Persons: Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, , Trump, Kamala Harris, It's, Harris, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, it's Organizations: Service, Trump, Consumer, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Locations: Financials
One bit of clarity they’re sure to get: The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, due to be announced Thursday. The Fed lowered borrowing costs in September for the first time in more than four years while signaling additional rate cuts. But a slew of economic figures have been released since the decision, which is important because the Fed’s decision are guided by what those figures show. Investors are betting with near certainty that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut, according to futures. Lower rates could entice home buyers to come off the sidelines, and for businesses it could continue plans that have “baked in” lower rates.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell’s, America’s, Harris, Harris ’, ” “, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, they’re, It’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, The Wall Street, US, Trump, Federal Reserve, Duke University, Institute for Supply, National Association of Realtors
The major stock benchmarks rallied Friday but were lower last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way lower after reaching new highs. Eight other Club names reported earnings last week, including Eli Lilly and Eaton. Despite indications from Big Tech that Nvidia's AI chips will remain in hot demand, the Club stock fell 4.3% for the week. The S & P 500 , which is less tech-weighted, fell nearly 1.4% for the week, making it back-to-back weekly losses for the broader market index. Earnings After analyzing earnings reports from 14 of our portfolio companies last week, there is only one Club name on the docket this week.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eaton, Jim Cramer, financials Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, we'll, Archer, Johnson, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Devices, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, Club, Nvidia, Dow, Intel, AMD, Dow Jones, Visa, American Express, JPMorgan, Bond, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Treasury, White, DuPont, Election, Protection, Electronics, Industrial, Constellation Energy, Marriott, Century Fox, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Goodyear Tire, Cirrus, Diamondback Energy, Daniels, Midland, Apollo Global Management, Ferrari, Restaurant Brands, Emerson Electric, Devon Energy, Novo Nordisk, CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Toyota, American Electric Power Company, Johnson Controls, Dine Brands, Holdings, AMC Entertainment, Qualcomm, Coty, COTY, Energy, Barrick, Halliburton, HAL, Hershey, Air Products & Chemicals, Warner Bros ., Arista Networks, Rivian Automotive, Trade, Icahn Enterprises, Sony, SONY, Paramount, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: BlackRock, Florida, China, Sluggishness, Cleveland, New York City, U.S
Stock futures dipped in overnight trading Sunday as investors geared up for the highly-anticipated U.S. presidential election. S&P 500 futures and Nasdsq-100 futures edged lower. Stocks are coming off a strong start to November, with Amazon and big technology stocks boosting the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500- 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Along with the election, Wall Street is bracing for the latest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Earnings seasons presses on with about a fifth of the S&P 500 slated to report in the coming week.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, CFRA Research's Sam Stovall, CNBC's, We've, Jerome Powell, Sarah Min Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, NBC, U.S . House, Republican, Democratic, Federal Reserve, Traders, Micro, Moderna, CVS Health, Qualcomm, Wynn Resorts
As the Fed lowers rates, mortgage rates are expected to go down, though next week's cut is already priced in and is unlikely to have an impact. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.50%, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down.
Persons: they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: U.S, Chevron, Government
That shortage also affects rent prices. In August, Harris unveiled a multi-pronged plan to lower housing costs. The plan also includes two main proposals to lower rent costs. Both plans to lower rent would be subject to congressional approval, meaning that the measures may be difficult to pass even if Harris wins the presidency. Unlike Harris, Trump has not rolled out a formal housing plan, but he has tied plans to deport undocumented immigrants to housing.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, “ It’s, , Jim Parrott, That’s, ” Parrott, Mario Tama, Freddie Mac, Harris, Trump, “ We’re, homeownership, SSRS, , Nick Pappas Organizations: CNN, Urban Institute, National Economic Council, SSRS, National Association of Realtors, Trump, Economic, of New, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Los Angeles , California, America, of New York, Kansas
Octavio Jones | ReutersExecutives at America's largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles. The word "election" came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500 -listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. The U.S. presidential election is Tuesday Nov. 5. 'Prudent' clientsMultiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients. To be sure, some of the "election" mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care.
Persons: Blythe Andrews , Jr, Octavio Jones, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Richard Tobin, FactSet, John Butters, Harris, Trump, Harry Lawton, Hurricanes Helene, Andrew Watterson, Michael Bayley, Gary Hershorn, Stanley Black, Decker, Donald Allan, Decker's Allan, William Grogan, Jon Vander Ark, Eric Ashleman, hasn't, Nonfarm payrolls, Equifax, Mark Begor, Stephen Squeri, we've, Mark Parrell Organizations: Public, Reuters, America's, CNBC, U.S, Dover, Tractor Supply, Hurricanes, Southwest Airlines, Royal, Hollywood International Airport, Corbis, Republican, Republic, Boeing, Tyler Technologies, American Express, Equity Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S, Milton, Royal Caribbean, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, America, China
The US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, way under the forecast of 106,000. Labor market watchers expected cooler job growth than September's, partly because of recent hurricanes and strikes. AdvertisementThe US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, falling way short of the forecast of 106,000. AdvertisementThe mixed results in the jobs report could complicate the Fed's interest rate plans into next year. The new jobs report is the last US employment report before the presidential election on November 5.
Persons: , Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Milton, Lydia Boussour, NORC, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Labor, Service, Hurricanes, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Statistics, Boeing, Reserve, AP Locations: Hurricane, United States
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