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☆ Mohamed El-Erian says regional banks are in a 'hospital' phase of turmoil, but a Fed policy mistake will drive them 'back into the ICU'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The regional banking crisis has shifted out a severe stage, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg on Tuesday. But another Fed policy mistake could drive small to mid-sized lenders "back into the ICU." If there's another [Fed] policy mistake, the patient goes back into the ICU," said the chief economic adviser at Allianz. Depositors have yanked hundreds of billions of dollars out of regional lenders collectively this year, including PacWest and First Republic Bank. What would another policy mistake look like to El-Erian?

☆ John Fetterman suggests failed Silicon Valley Bank executives should have the same work requirements 'Republicans want' for families receiving food stamps
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sen. John Fetterman grilled failed banking execs at a Tuesday Senate Banking Committee hearing. He said the GOP is "preoccupied" with spending on food stamps rather than bail-out funds. He suggested that bailed-out bankers should have work requirements like families on food stamps. As part of the debt ceiling bill the House GOP passed last month, Republicans proposed increased work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which offers a monthly stipend to buy food for millions of families nationwide. A hungry family has to have these kind of penalties and same kinds of working requirements," Fetterman said.

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the current credit squeeze is equal to 3 or 4 interest-rate hikes - and urges the Fed to pause its war against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the ongoing credit squeeze is equivalent to three or four Fed rate hikes. Siegel urged the Fed to pause its inflation war given tightening credit conditions and the central bank's lagged economic data. "They're in dangerous territory of precipitating a recession," Siegel said. "I actually think the tightening caused by this crisis is equivalent to three or four 25 basis point hikes of the Fed," Siegel said Monday in a Fox Business interview. The Fed has been persistent in its war against inflation, even though price pressures have showed promising signs of cooling.

☆ Sen. J.D. Vance on recent bank failures: FDIC 'changed the rules' in the middle of the game
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSen. J.D. Vance on recent bank failures: FDIC 'changed the rules' in the middle of the gameSen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Senate Banking Committee's hearing on the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks, his view on deposit guarantees, and more.

☆ Major investors loaded up on regional bank stocks during a turbulent first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital took small stakes in New York Community Bancorp and First Citizens Bancshares in the first quarter, with each bet worth about $20 million, according to a regulatory filing. New York Community Bancorp's subsidiary, Flagstar, acquired Signature Bank assets after that bank was shuttered , while First Citizens bought a large portion of Silicon Valley Bank assets . New York Community shares are up nearly 20% this year, while First Citizens' stock has jumped more than 68% on the year. 'Big Short' Burry of "Big Short" fame snapped up a slew of regional banks last quarter, including New York Community Bancorp , Capital One Financial , Western Alliance , PacWest Bancorp and Huntington Bancshares during the first quarter. To make matters more confusing, the conglomerate dumped its remaining stakes in Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp .

The S&P Regional Banking Index fell approximately 25% during the quarter as a run on deposits sank Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, both of which were at the time the largest banking failures since the Great Financial Crisis. The S&P Regional Banking index is now down 36% for the year to date. Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management, meanwhile, added a number of new positions in regional banks, including stakes in First Republic, PacWest (PACW.O) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N). Shares of regional banks have remained volatile in recent weeks, with some investors wary of more tumult to come in the sector. London-based Marshall Wace sold 51,300 shares of First Republic in the first quarter, closing its position in the bank.

☆ Foreign buying of US Treasuries in March hits largest since June 2021 -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

There were lots of buying by China, lots of buying by Japan. Japan, however, had been selling Treasuries for most of 2022 to help boost a weak yen. China had been selling Treasuries as well, like Japan for most of last year. U.S. residents, meanwhile, increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $22.8 billion, compared with net selling of $8.3 billion in February. Overall, net foreign purchases of long-term securities are estimated to have been $133.3 billion in March, up sharply from February's inflows of $56.6 billion, data showed.

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - Top U.S. banking regulators plan to tell lawmakers the government will be open to future bank mergers, but are committed to establishing tougher rules after recent turmoil. Barr maintained his commitment to overhauling bank rules to ensure firms do not escape stricter oversight because they are smaller or viewed as less risky. "The prudential regulation and supervision of these institutions merits additional attention, particularly with respect to capital, liquidity, and interest rate risk," he said in prepared testimony. While vowing to draft tougher rules, the agencies have also been criticized for not identifying and preventing weaknesses before the lenders failed. In prepared testimony, he said rapid interest rate increases and social media-fueled rumors drove the "unprecedented" bank run that sank his firm.

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - A U.S. banking regulator plans to tell lawmakers his agency is "open-minded" when it comes to potential bank mergers and would act on any proposed deal in a timely fashion. Recent turmoil has added "urgency" to the OCC's work on updating bank merger guidelines, Hsu said. Tuesday's hearing will be the first for regulators since the FDIC agreed to sell failed First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) this month. Watchdogs have been under intense scrutiny after the collapses of SVB and Signature set off fears of contagion. In prepared testimony, he said rapid interest rate increases and social media-fueled rumors drove the "unprecedented" bank run that sank his firm.

☆ Bridgewater dumps bank stocks amid turmoil in first quarter -filings
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Brendan... Read moreSAO PAULO, May 15 (Reuters) - Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, sold off U.S. bank stocks in the first quarter as the industry was roiled by the collapse of three lenders, according to regulatory filings. Global hedge funds cut their exposure to U.S. banking stocks to a near 10-year low in March and fled lending-sensitive shares amid turmoil in the industry following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The firm also slashed its positions in smaller banks such as Bank of Hawaii Corp (BOH.N), Pacwest Bancorp (PACW.O), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N), Citizens Financial Group (CFG.N) and Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N). Bridgewater was also bearish on European banks in March, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sparked contagion fears across global banks, a Reuters report showed. Following SVB, Signature Bank was also placed into receivership in March, while JPMorgan bought First Republic Bank's assets earlier this month.

☆ US regional banks rise in attempt to shake off crisis of confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

... Read moreMay 15 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional lenders gained on Monday led by a rebound in PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), as investors tried to look past the crisis of confidence brought on by the collapse of three banks in a span of two months. PacWest rose 8.4%, while Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O), Comerica Inc (CMA.N) and KeyCorp (KEY.N) were up between 2% and 6%. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX), which had lost 13.7% so far this month, rose 2%. Then in May First Republic collapsed, creating a vicious cycle that put pressure on regulators to intervene. However, investors have remained wary of any reassurances from analysts and regulators on the stability of the regional banks despite deposits rising.

☆ Former SVB CEO Greg Becker to Apologize for Bank Collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gina Heeb | Andrew Ackerman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Former Silicon Valley Bank Chief Executive Greg Becker Photo: patrick t. fallon/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesFormer Silicon Valley Bank chief executive Greg Becker plans to tell a Senate committee on Tuesday that no bank could have survived the unprecedented deposit run that led to his institution’s failure in March. Mr. Becker hasn’t spoken publicly since regulators seized SVB two months ago, after a failed capital raise and historic deposit run doomed the startup- and technology-focused California bank. Two former executives at New York-based Signature Bank , which failed shortly after, are also set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee.

☆ David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital bets on pair of regional banking stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

David Einhorn joined other big investors in shares in several regional bank stocks last quarter in a bet that the financial institutions would survive the industry crisis that felled Silicon Valley and First Republic banks. That's the bank whose subsidiary, Flagstar, acquired Signature Bank assets after that bank was shuttered. Einhorn's additions come amid a broad selloff of regional bank stocks on concern more institutions could fail as depositors withdrew assets and the value of banks' bond holdings narrowed. "Big Short" investor Michael Burry also bought regional bank stocks last quarter. Outside of the bank stocks, Einhorn notably increased exposure to Concentrix , Gulfport Energy and Tenet Healthcare .

☆ Former Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘I am truly sorry’
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“I never envisioned myself or SVB being in this situation,” former CEO Greg Becker writes, adding that he is “truly sorry for how this has impacted SVB’s employees, clients, and shareholders.”Becker is scheduled to testify at 10 a.m. ET Tuesday alongside two former executives of Signature Bank, which collapsed two days after SVB. But SVB’s collapse rumbled across global financial markets and sparked a selloff that has gripped US regional banks for more than two months. In its autopsy of the bank’s collapse, the Fed, which was SVB’s primary regulator, blamed both the central bank’s supervisory shortcomings and SVB management’s missteps. “You have nobody to blame for the failure at your bank but yourself and your fellow executives,” Warren wrote in a letter to Becker in March.

In prepared testimony published on Monday by the Senate Banking Committee, Becker said he believed the bank was responsive to regulator concerns about managing risk and working to address issues before an "unprecedented" bank run led to its failure. Becker said he did not believe "that any bank could survive a bank run of that velocity and magnitude." The former executives for New York-based Signature Bank, which also failed in March, maintained the bank could have survived had regulators not chosen to close it, according to separate testimony. California banking regulators moved quickly to shut SVB down on March 10 after depositors withdrew $42 billion in 24 hours. Regulators closed Signature on March 12 after it also experienced liquidity issues following SVB’s collapse.

May 15 (Reuters) - Greg Becker, the former chief executive officer of Silicon Valley Bank, is set to appear before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, two months after the collapse of his bank sparked panic among bank customers and investors, forcing the government to backstop deposits. California banking regulators moved quickly to shut down Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 after depositors withdrew $42 billion in 24 hours. Becker will testify before the Senate Banking Committee alongside Scott Shay and Eric Howell, the former chair and president, respectively, of Signature Bank. When his manager left to work for Silicon Valley Bank, Becker followed, he said on a 2021 Bloomberg podcast. Before becoming president and CEO of SVB Financial Group, Becker co-founded SVB Capital, the company's investment arm.

☆ Dan Sundheim's D1 buys this large regional bank stock, trims tech holdings in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Dan Sundheim's D1 Capital Partners bet on PNC Financial Services as turmoil unraveled across banks in the first quarter. The hedge fund, founded in 2018, opened a $43-million stake in the Pittsburgh-based regional bank in the first quarter, which saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, according to securities filings. D1 also made new bets on the healthcare sector, opening new positions in UnitedHealth and Danaher , and a stake worth at least $314 million in Elevance Health . While technology stocks rebounded during the first quarter, and investors gravitated back toward beaten-up growth stocks as bonds yields offered some relief, D1 reduced its exposure to some popular names. D1 managed roughly $27.6 billion in assets at the end of March, according to securities filings.

☆ Stop Equating the Latest Bank Failures to the 2008 Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Josh Zumbrun | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The FDIC seized First Republic Bank in early May and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeThe failures this year of First Republic Bank , Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank have been labeled the second-, third- and fourth-largest bank failures in U.S. history. By one measure, the three banks held more assets than all 25 banks that failed in 2008 during the global financial crisis. Wait a second: this wave of failures is as bad as the 2008 crisis?

☆ The Fed likely won't cut rates this year. Why that's good news for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Although a pause in interest rate hikes appears likely, cuts may be farther off than some believe. Still, investors have remained hyper-alert for signs that the central bank could let up its brisk clip of interest rate increases. The central bank also opened the door to a pause, accelerating bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in June and cut rates as soon as July. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in JulyExperts say that the Fed won’t cut rates anytime soon for two key reasons: Inflation remains sticky, and the economy has stayed strong. that’s not to say that a Fed rate cut this year is completely out of the cards, says Nicole Webb, senior vice president at Wealth Enhancement Group.

☆ Stocks week ahead: SVB and Signature Bank execs are set to testify next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs is holding three hearings this coming week centered around the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. ET : Greg Becker, former chief executive, Silicon Valley Bank; Scott Shay, former chairman and co-founder, Signature Bank and Eric Howell, former president, Signature Bank. ET : Mark Bialek, inspector general, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Paul Kupiec, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute and more. Since then, the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation have released reports detailing management missteps at SVB and Signature Bank, as well as federal regulators’ own mistakes in properly addressing red flags preceding the banks’ demises. A separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday shows that American households are becoming increasingly frugal.

☆ The Week in Business: Trump on TV
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Marie Solis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

(May 7-13)CNN’s TrumpcastUntil last week, former President Donald J. Trump had not appeared on CNN since 2016. But at a town hall hosted by the network on Wednesday night, Mr. Trump, the Republican front-runner in the 2024 presidential campaign, resumed the lies and name-calling that marked his presidency. Critics of CNN’s forum said it was reckless to give Mr. Trump such a large platform for his message, especially because it proved difficult to fact check his statements in real time. The results came in: Almost 58 percent of the 17.5 million people who voted agreed that Mr. Musk should leave his post. Mr. Musk said Ms. Yaccarino, who recently interviewed him onstage at an advertising event in Miami, would focus on business operations while he would continue to work on product design and technology.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ Timing the market isn't easy during a debt-ceiling showdown. Investors should stick to this strategy instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMark Hamrick is senior economic analyst for Bankrate. Phil Rosen: How should investors be positioning themselves as the debt-ceiling fiasco drags on, and a potential default nears? If making a play around the debt ceiling is a no-go in your view, what should investors opt for instead? Homeowners are "quiet quitting" as low inventory and high mortgage rates keep a key market participant sidelined. That has a dual impact: each owner that postpones looking for a new house also marks one less seller on the market.

☆ American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.”The latest survey showed that the university’s consumer-sentiment index fell by 9% in May. Monthly household spending growth tumbled to 5.4% from a revised 7.1% in December, according to the New York Fed’s Household Spending Survey, which is fielded every four months. Michigan’s report showed US household spending was flat in March from the prior month, after limping just 0.1% in February. Stack on top of that the Federal Reserve’s punishing interest-rate increases and still-high inflation, and consumers might just tap out. The Conference Board’s sentiment survey showed that consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans became more worried about the jobs market.

☆ Credit Suisse's chief US economist says home prices will likely fall another 5-10% — and that gridlock between buyers and sellers will prevent both appreciation and a larger crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.

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