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Ten of the 30 stocks in the average are on track to end the year with gains as of Friday, according to FactSet. Here are the best and worst performing stocks in the index this year and what analysts think is coming next. In all, 61% of analysts rate the stock a hold with a price target that implies a 15.2% upside. Still, analysts like the stock, with the average price target showing a 50.8% upside. More than four-fifths, or 82%, of analysts rate the stock overweight or buy, with an expected upside of 35.9%.
NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Bruised investors are hoping a so-called Santa Claus rally can soften the pain of a tough year in U.S. stocks and potentially brighten the outlook for 2023. Friday is this year's start date for this rally named after Santa Claus - if it happens. The phenomenon has lifted the S&P 500 an average of 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. A December without a Santa rally has been followed by a weaker-than-average year, data from LPL Financial going back to 1950 showed. "The lack of a 'Santa Claus rally' this month, with a 'lump of coal selloff' in its place, is a troubling sign about 2023 US equity returns," strategists at DataTrek wrote.
The final estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP revealed gross domestic product increased at a 3.2% annualized rate, above the previous estimate of 2.9%. Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) slipped 3.2% after the chipmaker forecast a bigger-than-expected second-quarter loss, sparking declines in peers. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.83-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.28-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and nine new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 180 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar, Ankika Biswas and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The usually reliable indicator historically shows the S & P 500 gains 73% of the time in the coming year when rising during those seven days. When the S & P was negative, the market was up about half that amount for the year, just 4.7%. The S & P was down 3.1% in February of 2022. In the year 2021, the S & P 500 gained 27%, but there are two distinct patterns following that type of gain. But, historically, whenever the decline started in the first or second quarter, the S & P 500 was higher by the end of the year 100% of the time.
The S & P 500 has shed more than 18% on the same basis, and the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 32% . It's rare that the Dow would beat out the S & P 500 on a total-return basis at all. "Over time, the Dow correlates with the S & P 500," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S & P Dow Jones Indices. On the flipside, large tech names in the S & P 500 have done much worse. In addition, Wall Street analysts say it is unlikely that the Dow will again outperform the S & P 500 in 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full inteview with SoFi’s Liz Young and CFRA’s Sam StovallLiz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, and Sam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, join CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss their expectations from the first half of 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy setting up 'fairly challenging' start to 2023, says CFRA's Sam StovallLiz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, and Sam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, join CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss their expectations from the first half of 2023.
But, it also forecast a higher terminal rate — or end point for its rate hikes — of 5.1%. I think the market was going retest the lows anyway, mainly because market bottoms mostly have retests," he said. Stovall said the market could see a slight Santa rally at the end of the month, going into the beginning of January. Many Wall Street strategists expect a choppy start of 2023, with a test of the lows, then improvement in the second half. Sohn said there's still a chance for a Santa rally, but he expects it may have already happened.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 7, 2022. Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rose 2% following the tech giant's deal to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L), powering much of Wall Street's gains. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) looked to rebound from its worst weekly performance since late September, sparked by dour comments from top U.S. executives and mixed economic data. Fears of an economic downturn have hammered Wall Street's main indexes this year, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 down 29.4% and 17%, respectively. Eight out of the 11 major S&P sector indexes were in the green, led by energy (.SPNY), utilities (.SPLRCU) and technology stocks (.SPLRCT).
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStovall: A lot of people have been bailing out of the action ahead of the Fed meetingSam Stovall of CFRA discusses market scenarios based on the tone the Fed takes in its statement this week, and where he expects the S&P 500 to potentially head in 2023.
Stock futures are flat on Tuesday night
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Stock futures were little changed Tuesday night. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 36 points, or 0.1% while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were each up 0.1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4% and 2%, respectively. The moves came as investors lost hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing. On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association will release its weekly report of mortgage loan applications.
So thought we'd look at what the Santa Claus rally phenomenon is all about and which Club stocks have had the best and worth December track records in recent years. It's a seven-day stretch over which the S & P 500 has historically tended to climb. The entire month of December has actually proven to be a historically strong period for the stock market. Investors would surely welcome a strong December after a terrible 11 months for the stock market. The S & P 500 tanked more than 9% that December, which at the time was its worth monthly performance in nearly a decade.
S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) declined 0.29% while technology shares (.SPLRCT) were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.
Stocks had rallied earlier in the week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on scaling back interest rates hikes as early as December. Even with Friday's weakness, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were poised for a second straight week of gains, while the Dow showed modest losses for the week. Information technology shares (.SPLRCT) bore the brunt of selling pressure among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, down 1.23% as the worst performer on the day. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) lost 0.79%. The S&P 500 posted 17 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 84 new lows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're on the side of 50bps in February and 25bps in March, says CFRA's StovallSam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Powell's recent comments at Brookings, whether now is a good time to buy equities and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with CFRA's Sam Stovall and Wells Fargo's Sameer SamanaSam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, and Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Powell's recent comments at Brookings, whether now is a good time to buy equities and more.
A reading from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.8% after an unrevised 0.6% increase in September. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, excluding volatile items, eased to 0.2%, against expectations of 0.3%. "People are feeling that the worst is behind us," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April in the previous session, while the Nasdaq index (.IXIC) ended over 4% higher. FEDWATCHInvestors also await nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, with the ADP report on Wednesday suggesting cooling demand for labor.
In those years, December was just the fourth best month, with the S & P 500 rising 1.35% and gaining 68% of the time. As the S & P 500 exits November, it is down about 17% this year. The S & P 500 could mirror some of the other very negative years. For instance, the S & P 500 was down 18.5% through November in 2002, and then bottomed in March 2003, gaining 26.4% that year. Watching key levels In order to confirm a bullish cycle, Suttmeier said the S & P 500 needs to regain the 40-week moving average at 4,033.
September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
Some strategists see a bottoming for stocks in the first part of 2023, but others say the key indexes could avoid breaking down to a new low but remain volatile. Redler follows short-term technicals, and he said the market could run into weakness around earnings in the first quarter, after a fourth-quarter Santa rally. "I think the Fed does stop raising rates in the first quarter, but it has to leave them there for an entire year. Bank of America strategists cite that inversion, and expectations for a mild recession next year, as a reason behind their negative call on stocks for the first half. A dollar-cost average first half with an expected recovery in the second half," he said.
"Leadership has shifted away from the tech sector and FANMAG. Two major challenges for tech names Clissold said the tech sector is facing two major challenges. Stockton said the peak in the Nasdaq last November was also the peak of its outperformance versus the S & P 500. The tech sector outperformed the S & P 500, but it was the materials sector that led the index higher, up about 19%. However, the S & P 500 has been up just 20%.
The S&P 500 is likely to extend a historic run of positive returns after midterm elections, market strategists say. The S&P 500 in has posted positive returns in the 12 months after midterm elections since the end of World War II. The broad equity index has posted positive returns after each mid-term since 1946–after World War II ended in September 1945. He said heading into the year-end it appears that the S&P 500 has found a "very strong floor of support," at 3,500. Detrick said dovish signals from the Fed could leave the S&P 500 in 2023 with a higher post-midterm election return than the 14.1% average he had found.
There will be things about gridlock the market doesn't like," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Meanwhile, under a Republican president, the stock market on average gains 4.9% when Democrats control Congress, and the market gains 7.3% with a split Congress. Strategas Research says the stock market is signaling that Republicans may sweep the election . There are clear stock market winners from a Republican victory, at least in the House. Laperriere, in a note, wrote that tech, small cap and financial firms are most vulnerable to higher taxes and tougher regulations, and they could benefit from a Republican Congress.
Let's start with a basic fact: Stocks have gained after every midterm election since World War II. But Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, still thinks the stage is set for a substantial year-end market rally. How do you expect the stock market to react to the 2022 midterms? US stocks are ticking higher early Monday as election week begins. It's possible the stock market crashes 29% if a drop in corporate earnings happens at the same time as a recession.
New York CNN Business —The stock market started the Biden era with a boom. Entering Monday, the S&P 500 advanced just 13.2% since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021. Of course, the stock market is not the economy, nor should it be viewed as a barometer to govern towards. Slammed by the Fed’s all-out war on inflation, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year, on track for its worst year since 2008. The underperformance of the stock market under Biden matters because many Americans have exposure to stocks, either directly or indirectly in their 401(k) and pension plans.
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