Investing pioneer Rob Arnott said there's a 50-50 chance of a recession in the coming year.
"People will say that recessions don't start with a booming economy," Arnott told CNBC Thursday.
"There's a couple of headwinds that play against growth and in favor of value," Arnott said.
AdvertisementAdvertisementHe said persistent inflation supports the case for value stocks rather than growth stocks, since they provide a greater margin of safety.
Elevated inflation, too, sustains higher bond yields, which suggests a higher discount rate for long-term future growth, and ultimately "reduces the value of growth stocks relative to value stocks."
Persons:
Rob Arnott, there's, Arnott, —
Organizations:
CNBC, Service, Research Affiliates