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[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 8, 2023. Crude prices eased, with gold firmer as the dollar index fell 0.18%, while MSCI's U.S.-centric index of stock performance in 47 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 1.3%, pulling away from a one-month trough, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) gained 1.6%. Crude prices eased as oil infrastructure appeared to have escaped serious damage from the earthquake that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria, while U.S. inventories swelled and investors worried about central bank rate hikes. Gold prices rose for a fourth straight session as the dollar faltered, even as Fed officials indicated more rate hikes are warranted to rein in inflation.

☆ Morning bid: Cloudy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And deep in the weeds of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings season, Microsoft's (MSFT.O) overnight rollercoaster probably defines the uncertainty. Microsoft stock surged almost 5% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after its bottom line beat the Street consensus. The mixed earnings picture dampened early week enthusiasm surrounding tech stocks and chipmakers. The chance it may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates again boosted the Aussie dollar. Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* Bank of Canada policy decision.

☆ Morning bid: Tech tonic, recession rethink
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pumped-up hopes for U.S. tech sector earnings in a heavy week for corporate updates generally have twinned with the latest sign Europe may have dodged a winter recession. With Microsoft in view, attention will be on the extent for cost cutting and job shedding in the tech and digital space. Music-streamer Spotify (SPOT.N) rose 2% on Monday as it joined a growing list of tech firms to announce staff cuts, shedding 6% of its workforce. Reports of Ford's F.N plan to cut 3,200 workers in Europe shows job attrition may not be confined to tech sector. Whether that's just too rosy and markets have yet to price a full-blown earnings recession is this year's big question.

☆ Gold slips as dollar gains momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold will bounce around $1,900 level in near term - analystBarrick set to report highest quarterly gold output for 2022Jan 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed, while expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes limited the losses. A stronger dollar tends to make gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. If the narrative continues to be that inflation is cooling and interest rates will come down, then it will be bullish for gold." FEDWATCHLower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. On the physical front, Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) reported on Tuesday a 13.4% sequential rise in gold production in what could be its highest quarterly output last year.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Fed policymakers signal rate-hike slowdown coming, but no easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"It is encouraging that we got some information today that went in the right direction," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said at an event organized by the Wisconsin Bankers Association. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration 1 2'STEER MORE DELIBERATELY'Speaking earlier on Thursday to a business group in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes quarter-percentage-point rate hikes are indeed now appropriate. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that inflation over the last three months has gone in the "right direction" and allows the Fed to "steer more deliberately" in its battle against price pressures. The Fed ultimately pushed borrowing costs, and the U.S. unemployment rate, into double-digit territory during that period before stopping the upward spiraling of prices. Fed policymakers say they do not expect the unemployment rate, currently 3.5%, to rise much more than a percentage point in the course of the current inflation fight.

☆ Stocks climb, dollar falls after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin echoed the sentiment about the data and said it allowed the Fed to "steer more deliberately". Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Morning Bid: Disinflation elation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Whether the Federal Reserve policymakers will publicly chime with the disinflation narrative or not, many acknowledge their policy stance is now 'data dependent' from here. And unless disavowed of it by hard evidence, markets already assume the inflation battle is as good as won. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. China's inflation rate crept back up last month too but it remains below 2% and annual producer price inflation is still in negative territory. Although UK bond yields and sterling skidded lower on Wednesday in mix of recession concerns and energy price disinflation hopes, there was better news on the retail front today.

☆ Fed's more gradual rate hike path should limit economic harm, Barkin says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"If you think supply chain improvements and our actions to date are enough to bring inflation down quickly, then our more gradual rate path should limit the harm," Barkin said in prepared remarks for an event in Durham, North Carolina. Its main policy rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% and Fed policymakers forecast a peak at around 5.1%. Barkin did not provide his individual forecast of where he thinks rates will peak nor his policy preference for the Fed's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting. Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge, is running at nearly three times the central bank's 2% target. "Once demand weakens, studies estimate it can take another six to 12 months before those pullbacks quiet the rate of inflation."

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ The Investing Club's top 5 things to watch in the market Wednesday: Equities, oil, China
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Club's top 5 things to watch Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2022 1. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors look to new year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders Gregory Rowe (R) and Peter Tuchman work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) ahead of the closing bell, June 21, 2019 in New York City. Stock futures are near flat Tuesday evening as traders look to the end of a losing year and prepare for 2023. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 11 points, trading near flat. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were also both near flat. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to lose 8.5% and 19.7%, respectively.

☆ Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mostly lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.6% as of Friday morning. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

☆ Dollar gives back gains, strong wage growth complicates Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Stronger-than-expected hiring can buy the Fed more time to stay aggressive," Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington, said. But the dollar gave back gains as investors took profits before the weekend and as Fed officials spoke on the outlook. The dollar index was last down 0.13% on the day against a basket of currencies at 104.49, and the euro gained 0.10% to $1.0533. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 6.0% after advancing 6.3% in September. The next major U.S. economic indicator will be consumer price inflation data due on Dec. 13, one day before the Fed concludes its two-day meeting.

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.13% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.09%. "It's going to be a busy second half of the week with all the data points we're expecting. Oil prices climbed on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls, which had fueled demand concerns. Gold prices rose with help from the dollar's retreat and hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes going forward.

The Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.4%, recovering from its worst session in almost two weeks a day earlier. Shares in London (.FTSE) were up 0.8% and markets in Paris (.FCHI) and Frankfurt (.GDAXI) gained around 0.2%-0.3%. Hopes of faster easing of China's strict restrictions rose after an official said they will continue to fine-tune policy to reduce the impact of its "Zero COVID" on society. The sudden bout of optimism on China combined with talk of possible output cuts by OPEC+ to help oil prices rally. Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms.

The euro rose ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. The Aussie , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 1.2% to $0.6734. EURO ZONE INFLATIONThe euro was up 0.4% at $1.0380, not far from a five-month peak of $1.0497 hit on Monday. Flash euro zone inflation figures for November are due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation to come in at 10.4% year-on-year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed needed to raise interest rates quite a bit further, while New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed similar views.

☆ Asia shares take comfort in China property rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms. read moreThat helped Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) bounce 1.1%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.7%. Markets were still nervous that the widening web of restrictions in China would lead to more public unrest and further undermine growth. read more"The zero China COVID policy has been an absolute gut punch to Apple's supply chain," said Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush. The dollar index rallied to 106.57 , having been as low as 105.31 overnight.

☆ Morning Bid: Wild oil ride amid China and crypto woe
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] General view of the oil refinery, part of Grupa Lotos taken over by PKN Orlen in 2022, in Gdansk, Poland August 9, 2022. Turbulence in oil, China's COVID crunch and unravelling cryptocurrencies make for uncomfortable reading for investors starting to parse what looks like a recessionary year ahead. Higher interest rates and slowing economies dominate most 2023 outlooks, not least Tuesday's latest from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Underlining the growth gloom, China's battle with COVID and its widening curbs only seemed to worsen. Pain in the crypto world continued, with many investors fearing the fallout from the collapse of exchange FTX is just beginning.

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Monday evening
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures are little changed Monday night as investors worry about the prospect of China reinstating pandemic restrictions. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6 points and was near the flatline. S&P 500 futures were flat while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.1%. Expect appearances from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Economic reports due out include the Philadelphia Fed's nonmanufacturing business outlook survey and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.

Results of Tuesday's election remain uncertain, with President Joe Biden's Democratic Party performing better than expected and potentially in position to retain control of the Senate. "This will be de facto gridlock regardless of the outcome," said Brian Gardner, Washington-based strategist for Stifel. But it can also gum up the wheels of basic governance and pose its own set of risks. But it also may have helped trigger the current round of inflation, and has pushed U.S. public debt to record levels. That may mean a more reluctant fiscal response to any coming downturn.

☆ Morning Bid: Congress unswept, crypto a mess
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Incumbent Democrats enjoyed a stronger-than-expected showing, with a chance of retaining the Senate, limiting expected losses in the House of Representatives and taking important governors' races. Regardless of the poll results, problems in the crypto world deepened amid fears of widespread contagion and selling following the near collapse of a major exchange on Tuesday. Perhaps partly related to the crypto shakeout, shares in Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday after filings showed owner Elon Musk sold almost $4 billion Tesla shares before his Twitter takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's fight to lower inflation "may lead to a downturn" as the central bank's interest rate increases are "challenged" by still-high consumer savings, still-tight labor markets and ongoing supply problems, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. In the meantime, even as some parts of the economy operate more normally, others remain changed by the pandemic in ways that make the Fed's inflation fight harder. "If we back off for fear of a downturn, inflation comes back even stronger and requires even more restraint," he said. Barkin's prepared remarks did not indicate where he thinks that "terminal" level may rest, but made clear the Fed would succeed in its inflation fight. "We are doing what it takes to get inflation back to our 2% target," Barkin said.

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