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The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
After a brief reprieve in December and January, mortgage rates are moving higher again, and that is taking its toll on mortgage demand. Total mortgage application volume fell 2.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. "That's because mortgage rates are climbing again and winter weather has been harsher than usual in much of the country, keeping some house hunters at home." Mortgage rates surged even higher Tuesday after a government report on inflation showed it was still stubbornly higher than expected. "The bond market (which underlies mortgage rates) reacted immediately and forcefully when the numbers came out.
Persons: Joel Kan, Chen Zhao, Bonds, Matthew Graham Organizations: Mortgage, Mortgage News Locations: Pico Rivera , California, Redfin
Home prices are 65% higher in places with high-risk air quality as climate change warps the housing market, Redfin report says. The median sale price in a high-risk metro was $563,710 as of December, far above the $341,483 price in low-risk metros. Metro areas where air-quality risks are high are seeing median sale prices soar by 65%, according to a Redfin report published on Monday. That's a median price of $563,710 in high-risk areas as of December — far above the $341,483 median sale price in low-risk metros. Unsurprisingly, most of those high-risk areas are concentrated on the West Coast, an area that has recently been prone to disastrous wildfires.
Organizations: Service, Business Locations: West Coast, Metro, Los Angeles
The housing market will see a stronger, prolonged spring homebuying rush this year, real estate pros say. Buyers and sellers are slowly wading back into the market as mortgage rates edge lower. That's not what economists had originally expected for the housing market this year. "Until we see mortgage rates really improve, we don't expect owners to come back very, very quickly." Affordability conditions have been steadily improving after a bad year for the housing market.
Persons: , Redfin, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather, Skylar Olsen, Olsen, Zillow, " Fairweather, Freddie Mac, That's, , aren't Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors Locations: Zillow
AdvertisementRising mortgage rates are inflating mortgage payments, which are now roughly $110 under October's all-time peak, Redfin reported. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.63% in the four weeks through January, the median monthly payment hit $2,607. As mortgage rates loosely follow interest levels, renewed signals that interest rates will stay higher for longer are instead leading to a mortgage rate rebound. Redfin expects mortgage rates to remain elevated near current levels until the Fed cuts interest rates, which may be months away from happening. "I'm advising buyers — especially first-timers — that the mortgage rates they see in the news aren't the be-all and end-all.
Persons: Redfin, , Luis Rojas, hasn't, Rojas, Fannie Mae's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: It's
About 730,000 people moved to Florida between July 2021 and July 2022, according to the latest census data available. The typical mover to Florida is not a baby boomer, but a millennial or a Gen Xer from New York and California, according to Business Insider's Noah Sheidlower. "When it comes to people who can't get a starter home in South Florida, they're coming to Orlando," Smith said. "But if you move to Orlando, Florida, with $750,000 or $800,000, you're like, 'I get a yard? AdvertisementMore than 140,000 of the nearly 739,000 people who moved to Florida between 2021 and 2022 came from California and New York , according to Census data.
Persons: , Noah Sheidlower, Freddie Smith, Shay Walker, Smith, Redfin, Orlando, jodi jacobson, Jenna Clark, Mark Kaley, Joe Raedle Organizations: Service, Business, Orlando, Walt Disney, University of Florida's, Economic, Business Research, Insurance, Disney, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Locations: Florida, New York, California, Cities, South Florida, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Los Angeles, Orange County, New York City, Central Florida, Orlando , Florida
Business Insider has spoken with a handful of real-estate investors who own profitable properties and asked what they look for in the acquisition phase. Go for multi-family propertiesA multi-family is a single building divided to house more than one family living separately and ranges from duplexes to triplexes and fourplexes. The idea is that your tenant's rent will cover some (or all) of your housing costs. Note that not all markets have an abundance of multi-family properties. "When you're looking for an investment property, you're looking for something really under market that you can renovate."
Persons: Dana Bull, Bull, Nyasia Casey, she'll, Casey Organizations: Business, Agents Locations: New England, Baltimore
A wave of retiring Boomers means the generation will soon be at "peak burden" to the economy. It's the Baby Boomers, who are aging fast and approaching their "peak burden" years in regard to their drag on the economy and the resources of younger generations. Advertisement"The peak burden is [when] all the baby boomers have hit retirement," Millar told Business Insider. And it isn't the case that Baby Boomers will derail economic growth nearly as much as, say, a full-blown recession, according to Dean Baker, an economist who described the Baby Boomers as a "time bomb" in a 1998 paper. In 2022, empty-nester baby boomers owned 28% of large homes in the US, a Redfin analysis found, double the share of millennial families.
Persons: , Zers, Jonathan Millar, Millar, Dean Baker, That's, Boomers, David Rosenberg, Baker, Gen Organizations: Boomers, Service, Barclays, National Association of Realtors, Chamber of Commerce, Rosenberg Research, Social, Insurance Trust Fund, Social Security Administration Locations: Millennials
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
Equity Residential purchased Portside Towers in 2019. A group of renters in the U.S. say their landlords are using software to deliver inflated rent hikes. Renters told CNBC they discovered how revenue management software is used in real estate after reading a 2022 ProPublica investigation. Equity Residential investor materials show that the company started to experiment with Lease Rent Options between 2005 and 2008. Equity Residential and other defendant landlords declined to comment on ongoing RealPage litigation.
Persons: RealPage, District of Columbia Brian Schwalb, We've, Kevin Weller, There's, Jeffrey Roper, Thoma, Thoma Bravo, Harry Gural, Gural, we're, Mark Parrell Organizations: Washington , D.C, District of Columbia, CNBC, Equity Residential, Towers, World Trade, RealPage, U.S . Department of Justice, Equity, U.S, Thoma Bravo, U.S . Locations: Washington ,, RealPage, Jersey City , New Jersey, Portside, U.S, Miami, Van Ness, Jersey City, Atlanta, Austin , Texas, U.S . East
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are living through the toughest housing market in a generation and, for some young people, the quintessential dream of owning a home is slipping away. Mortgage rates surged in recent years, hitting the highest levels in more than two decades last fall. CNN spoke with some young Americans about their thoughts on the current state of the US housing market and their plans for the future. “The housing market is not a single person’s market.”What typically happens when a regional housing market becomes too unaffordable is that people without the means simply move somewhere cheaper, such as a suburb an hour away, for example. Still, affordability takes into account mortgage rates, family incomes and single-family home prices, which remain a vexing pain point.
Persons: It’s, Baby, Brandie Grant, Grant, , , ” Brandie Grant, Brandie, Ross, Emily Bunton, Ross Bunton, That’s, ” Bunton, I’m, Corey Griffis, , hasn’t, ” Griffis, Shyahm Aguilar, Shyahm Aguilar Shyahm Aguilar, Aguilar, we’ve, ” Aguilar, that’s, there’s, Fannie Mae’s, ” Mark Palim, Fannie Mae, Mario Tama, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s, Sofiya Vyshnevska, Vyshnevska, “ Young Organizations: DC CNN, Baby Boomers, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area, National Association of Realtors, Housing Administration, Montana State University, Federal, Housing Survey, , NAR Locations: Washington, San Francisco Bay, United States, St, Louis , Missouri, Portland , Oregon, Mexico, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Santa Fe, Merida, Colorado, Phoenix, Queen Creek , Arizona, Minneapolis, Houston, Dallas, Austin , Texas, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Florida, Atlanta
While 30-year mortgage rates have come down by more than a full percent to around 6.6%, they're still significantly more elevated than their 2021 low of less than 3%. Lower mortgage rates mean higher cash flows and a higher likelihood for appreciation, which is good for strategies like flipping. But there are ways for real-estate investors to get around higher rates, Meyer says. This means asking the seller if they can provide a cash payment that effectively lowers mortgage rates for the first few years of ownership. Given that rising mortgage rates have largely killed demand in the housing market, buyers have had more success recently getting deal-sweeteners like rate-buydowns, according to research from Redfin.
Persons: they're, Dave Meyer —, , Molly Grace, Meyer, Welborn Organizations: Business
You’re probably a millennial, the generation now likeliest to be raising children. Millennial households with children own half as many, about 14 percent. And the disparity persists despite the fact that millennials (aged 26 to 41) now outnumber boomers, making up 28 percent of the U.S. population. Boomers (aged 58 to 76) account for 27 percent. Among the other generations, Gen X-ers (aged 42 to 57, making up 24 percent of the population) with children own 12 percent of larger homes, while Gen Z households (aged 19 to 25, with 12 percent of the population) with children own just 0.2 percent.
Persons: You’re, Redfin, Gen
Recep-bg | E+ | Getty ImagesRent costs are beginning come down after record-high asking prices. "Rental markets are cooling, but in a lot of places, it doesn't mean they're falling. It means they're growing at a slower pace," said Whitney Airgood-Obrycki, senior research associate focused on affordable housing at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Prices are beginning to come down as supply boosts vacancy and demand slows from record highs in 2022. Increasing the supply of higher-rent Class A units often encourages tenants to upgrade to new units, making prices in those units level out and boosting vacancy in Class B and C units, Airgood-Obrycki said.
Persons: Whitney Airgood, Susan M, Wachter, Obrycki Organizations: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Prices, Finance, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Locations: Here’s, Airgood
More importantly, though was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's pushback against the idea that rate cuts are imminent. So, what does this mean for the housing market, which is eagerly anticipating lower rates to make housing even slightly more affordable? According to Redfin, pushing out timelines for Fed rate cuts means mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated for longer this year, but it doesn't mean relief is off the table for homebuyers in 2024. "Regardless of any short-term volatility in mortgage rates, we expect rates to come down gradually throughout the year," Redfin's Chen Zhao wrote following the Fed meeting. AdvertisementThe real estate group notes that other forces are at work in the mortgage market as well, and the Fed isn't the only input.
Persons: , Jerome Powell's pushback, Redfin's Chen Zhao, Redfin, we'll, Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, US Department of, Treasury, Bank of America
Luxury home prices have hit an all-time high, rising at twice the pace of non-luxury homes, Redfin wrote in a report on Wednesday. "Luxury prices are rising at twice the rate of non-luxury prices largely because so many affluent buyers are able to buy homes in cash, rendering today's elevated mortgage rates irrelevant," the release stated. "A lot of luxury buyers are coming in with cash, snapping up expensive homes," a Redfin Premier agent, Heather Mahmood-Corley, said. It's also that the supply of luxury homes is still low, driving up competition and pushing bid prices higher. The total number of luxury homes on the market also rose by 13%.
Persons: Redfin, Heather Mahmood, Corley, It's Organizations: Business Locations: Scottsdale, Tempe, West
Greg McBride chief financial analyst at Bankrate"Below the surface, 60% of households are living paycheck to paycheck," McBride said. Now, with rate cuts on the horizon, consumers will see some of their borrowing costs come down as well, although deposit rates will also follow suit. From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here's a look at where those rates could go in the year ahead. Going forward, annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates but even then, they will only ease off extremely high levels. Mortgage ratesDue to higher mortgage rates, 2023 was the least affordable homebuying year in at least 11 years, according to a report from real estate company Redfin.
Persons: Greg McBride, McBride, Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae, It's, Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds Organizations: Treasury, Fed Locations: Edmunds
Homebuyers have gained more purchasing power as mortgage rates have edged lower. That's due to a steady decline in mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6.7%. That's thanks to the recent decline in mortgage rates, which has taken the cost of borrowing on a 30-year fixed mortgage to around 6.7%, Freddie Mac data shows. With rates hovering around 6.7%, that means the typical homebuyer will pay $2,545 on their monthly mortgage payment – down from the median monthly payment of $2,713 when mortgage rates hovered around 7.8%. Prospective buyers shouldn't try to time interest rates before entering the housing market, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said.
Persons: Homebuyers, Redfin, , Freddie Mac, shouldn't, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Fed
'Look for the really ugly houses'Especially if you're investing out-of-state or in an unfamiliar area, "your biggest asset is other agents," said Casey. "You have to go to the block or know someone who knows the market really well." But that's not necessarily what you're looking for as an investor. "When you're looking for an investment property, you're looking for something really under market that you can renovate." Ask, 'Would this work for a tenant in the market you're investing in?'"
Persons: Nyasia Casey, I've, Casey, Baltimore Casey, David Shvartsman, she's, wouldn't, fourplexes, She's, I'm Organizations: Business, Amazon FBA, Yorker, Baltimore, Agents, YouTube Locations: New York City, Baltimore , Maryland, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, NYC, New York, Albany, Bronx
Photographer:Severe winter weather is hindering home sales across the country, according to a Thursday report from real estate company Redfin . The median U.S. home-sale price has been steadily increasing, rising around 5% in the first four weeks of January, alongside asking prices, Redfin reported. While low inventory – down 4% year over year – and increased purchasing power have contributed to the high price tags, Redfin said winter weather has also factored into sluggish sales. Pending home sales are down more than 8% year over year, which Redfin reported as the biggest decline in four months. With potential homebuyers in areas facing severe winter weather staying home, that number has continued to climb.
Persons: Redfin, Christine Kooiker Organizations: National Association Of Realtors, Midwest, National Association of Realtors Locations: Geneseo , Illinois, U.S, California, Michigan, Redfin, Anaheim , California, New Brunswick , New Jersey, Miami , Florida
Home-price appreciation has also slowed — and in many cities turned negative — making strategies like flipping much less viable. 4 ways to build wealth in today's marketIn an interview with Business Insider on Wednesday, Meyer listed four strategies real-estate investors should consider at the moment. With rates high and deals harder to find in the market, investors could find returns by lending out their own money to other investors. "There's very little supply on the market right for existing homes. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are around 7% right now, and Meyer expects rates to stay between 6-7% in the near-future.
Persons: Dave Meyer, Meyer, Redfin Organizations: Business, Rocket Mortgage, Builders, Federal Locations: BiggerPockets
Housing affordability is near its lowest levels in four decades as mortgage rates and home prices have skyrocketed relative to incomes. But according to Point2, an online real-estate marketplace, there are still areas where young buyers are finding deals. In building their ranking model, they considered factors like home price-to-income ratios, the local Gen Z unemployment rates, Gen Z homeownership rates, inventory, days on the market, and more. "Student loans and the rising cost of living means that Gen Z inherited the affordability concern from millennials," the report said. Below, we've listed the top 20 cities on Point2's index, along with their composite scores, local home price-to-income ratios, and Gen Z unemployment rates.
Persons: Gen Z, Z, We've Organizations: Business Locations: Redfin
Read previewHigh mortgage rates, lofty prices, and low inventory kept the US housing largely frozen in 2023, and home sales slumped to their lowest mark since 1995. Current owners have been reluctant to move off lower mortgage rates secured in prior years, stifling both buying and selling activity. AdvertisementAnd it's worth noting that even as mortgage rates in both years hovered around 7%, affordability has still worsened by a significant margin. NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz highlighted in a note Monday that incomes have less power today compared to decades ago, as reflected in the real estate group's Housing Affordability Index. National Association of Realtors"All these factors have changed dramatically with limited housing inventory and the continual rise in home prices," she continued.
Persons: , it's, hasn't, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Zillow, Redfin Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, NAR, National Association of Home Builders
As people age, they need homes that are more accessible and easier to maintain. Large homes often have multiple floors, yards, and other features that make them trickier to navigate for older people. AdvertisementSchuetz says there's not a dearth of large homes in the US. Instead, there's really just a mismatch between large homes and occupants who don't need them. But many more family-sized apartments and other homes will need to be built to make up for the lack of large homes on the market.
Persons: , Jenny Schuetz, Redfin, Schuetz, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's, I've, Fairweather, it's, there's Organizations: Service, Business, Brookings Institution
The housing market is flashing signs of life, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin said. AdvertisementThe housing market is flashing a handful of bullish signals for the year ahead, according to Compass CEO Robert Reffkin. The founder of one of the nation's top real estate brokerages said he believed the housing market will be on the path to recovery in 2024. But more owners appear to be moving out of necessity or have warmed up to the idea of selling as mortgage rates head lower. At this rate, buyers are outpacing sellers in the market, Reffkin said, noting that Compass's real estate agents are seeing more business in the new year.
Persons: Robert Reffkin, Reffkin, , brokerages, Freddie Mac, Sam Lafoca, LM Otero, Sellers, Phil Noble, I've, Barbara Corcoran Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, CNBC, Community, Getty, Associated, REUTERS, Mortgage, Association, New Locations: lancaster California, USA, Dallas, Kirkham, England
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