The baseline view for Goldman Sachs is that the S&P 500 will rise 7% over the next 12 months.
If a recession occurs, the S&P 500 would fall 23% to 3,400, Goldman Sachs said.
The warning comes as the S&P 500 is currently in the midst of a bull market run, led by a rally around mega-cap tech stocks.
According to Goldman, breadth drawdowns are historically followed by significant slides in the S&P 500.
Historically, when the S&P 500 trades this high, it is usually followed by a 14% drawdown over the next year, the analysts wrote.
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