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Inflation is cooling and jobs abound, but many Americans still feel dissatisfied with the economy. Democrats and Republicans alike think the economy is struggling, despite evidence showing otherwise. Some say the US is in a "vibecession," a disconnect between how the economy performs and how Americans feel about its performance. Even now, with slower inflation, paused interest-rate hikes, and a healthy job market, Americans can't give up the idea that the economy is in trouble. If you're comparing your financial situation with that of three years ago, you're likely to feel as if the economy has gotten worse, even though it's actually gotten better.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Trump, it's, Kyla Scanlon, Scanlon, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Democrats, Service, University of Michigan, Pew Research, Pew, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, CNN, New York Fed, Conference Board, US
The chief executive of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco on Wednesday attributed the ongoing depression of oil prices to recessionary fears and economic headwinds, painting a more optimistic landscape for demand to come. Global crude oil prices have stayed tightly rage-bound just above the $75-per-barrel threshold despite a spate of additional voluntary cuts that some OPEC members are implementing until the end of 2024. On Monday, heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia — who lead the group of OPEC countries and its allies, known as OPEC+ — crowed this effort with pledges for additional declines. Riyadh intends to extend a 1-million-barrel-per-day voluntary cut initially declared for July into August, while Moscow has committed to lower its exports by 500,000 barrels per day next month. Yet prices for Brent futures with September expiry were just $76.76 per barrel at 2:28 p.m. London time, up by 51 cents per barrel from the previous settlement.
Persons: Aramco's Amin Nasser, Russia — Organizations: Organization for Petroleum Exporting, CNBC, Brent Locations: Saudi, Aramco, Vienna, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Riyadh, Moscow, London
The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.
Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA
This is where to find hot yields in July, according to UBS
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Now's the time to focus on fixed income over equities, according to UBS. Yet some fixed income products are more attractive than others right now. Mortgage-backed securities UBS calls mortgage-backed securities a "unique" opportunity in fixed income. Preferred securities Banks and financial institutions issue the majority of preferred securities , which have characteristics of both stocks and bonds. UBS recently upgraded preferred securities to most preferred.
Persons: it's, Frank Sileo, Jason Draho, Sileo, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, AAA
Asia refiners expect Saudi Arabia to cut August crude prices
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Saudi Arabia in June unexpectedly raised prices for July-loading cargoes, eating into Asian refiners' margins. Profits at a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude fell to an average of $3.44 a barrel in June, from $4.78 a barrel last month. Saudi crude prices typically closely track changes in benchmark Dubai monthly price spreads, but the two have disconnected in recent months. Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting about 9 million bpd of crude bound for Asia. Below are expected Saudi prices for August 2023 (in $/bbl against the Oman/Dubai average):Reporting by Muyu Xu; Editing by Florence Tan and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Unipec, Muyu Xu, Florence Tan, Jamie Freed Organizations: Saudi Aramco, Dubai, Global, Kuwaiti, bbl, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Saudi, Dubai, Oman, Singapore, PetroChina, Asia
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAirbnb's will not perform well in a recessionary environment, says Reventure's Nick GerliNick Gerli, Reventure Consulting Founder and CEO, joins 'Last Call' to explain his recent viral tweet claiming AirBnB is seeing declining revenue in several major markets.
Persons: Nick Gerli Nick Gerli Organizations: Reventure
Morning Bid: G4 central bankers speak, chips wars rumble
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The picture was complicated further overnight as Tuesday's macro-driven rally in Wall St stocks was sideswiped by renewed Sino-U.S. trade tensions. AI darling Nvidia recoiled 4% (NVDA.O) in out-of-hours trade after reports Washington is considering new curbs on chip exports to China. But Wednesday's trading may well be dominated by news from a power panel at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal. In currency markets, the dollar (.DXY) was firmer - especially against China's yuan , which hit a new low for the year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan Eyeing, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Andrew Bailey, disinflation, Joe Biden, Wall, General Mills, Mike Dolan, John Stonestreet Organizations: Nvidia, Central, Federal, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Wall St, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, Treasury, Micron Technology, General, General Mills New, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Wall St, Washington, China, Portugal, Australia, Canada, Chicago, Shanghai
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe yield curve is sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekBrian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management global head of global fixed income, and Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the consumer trade trends in the back half of 2024, consumer discretionary spending towards travel, and ten year yields moving higher off of inflation.
Persons: Chris Senyek Brian Weinstein, Morgan, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Wolfe Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYield curve sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekBrian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management global head of global fixed income, and Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the consumer trade trends in the back half of 2024, consumer discretionary spending towards travel, and ten year yields moving higher off of inflation.
Persons: Chris Senyek Brian Weinstein, Morgan, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Wolfe Research
Bank of America says silicon-based chips are expected to grow to $10 billion by 2027InfiniBand (IB) and ethernet can both be used for AI computer networks. But Bank of America expects the global AI software market to reach $900 billion by 2026, up from just under $600 billion this year. But generative AI isn't like your average search engine. As big-tech cloud providers begin to integrate generative AI into their centers, the demand for things such as networking silicon is set to skyrocket. The investment bank expects ethernet to attract most of the $10 billion market share, growing from $500 million to $6 billion by 2027.
Persons: InfiniBand, Vivek Arya Organizations: of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Google, Bank of America, IB
Recessions haven't always resulted in declining stock markets, and good opportunities can be found amid them. Sectors for recession naysayersThe best sectors for recession disbelievers are the most economically sensitive ones: industrials, materials and financials. Well-positioned companies with good growth prospects currently include: Corteva, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp., PPG Industries and Sherwin-Williams. Currently buyable names include: Campbell Soup Co., General Mills, The Hershey Co., Kellogg's, Kimberly-Clark Corp., Kroger, Procter & Gamble and Walmart. Sector names with reasonable risk levels and good growth prospects include: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc., Veeva Systems Inc., IQVIA Holdings Inc., Cigna Group and Zoetis Inc.
Persons: Sherwin, Williams, Mayur, Martin Marietta, JPMorgan Chase, Rowe Price, Willis Towers Watson, Campbell, General Mills, Clark, Willie B, Thomas, Digitalvision Organizations: Westend61, University of Michigan Consumer, Investors, Westinghouse Air Brake Co, Cummins Inc, CSX, Emerson Electric, Otis Worldwide, Carrier, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Illinois Tool, Lockheed Martin Corp, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp, PPG Industries, XLF, JPMorgan, Rowe Price Group Inc, American International Group, Allstate, The, McLennan, Sectors, Co, Hershey Co, Clark Corp, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Walmart, Getty Images Health, iShares U.S, Medical Devices, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc, Veeva Systems Inc, IQVIA Holdings Inc, Cigna, Zoetis Inc Locations: American, The Hartford, Marsh, Kimberly
Powell's comments did little to sway investors in futures markets tied to the Fed’s policy rate, which on Wednesday reflected bets for only one additional rate increase this year, followed by cuts in January. An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. It suggests that while investors expect interest rates to rise in the near term, they believe higher borrowing costs will eventually hurt the economy, forcing the Fed to later ease monetary policy. "With a steeply inverted curve we see a lot of yield and a lot of attractive opportunities in the front end," said Steve Hooker, portfolio manager of Newfleet Asset Management. Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income, said inflation remained way too high to anticipate rate cuts any time soon.
Persons: Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Powell's, Roger Hallam, Steve Hooker, ” Hooker, Greg Peters, We're, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Federal, Fed, Vanguard, Silicon Valley Bank, Commonwealth Financial Network, Newfleet Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S
The baseline view for Goldman Sachs is that the S&P 500 will rise 7% over the next 12 months. If a recession occurs, the S&P 500 would fall 23% to 3,400, Goldman Sachs said. The warning comes as the S&P 500 is currently in the midst of a bull market run, led by a rally around mega-cap tech stocks. According to Goldman, breadth drawdowns are historically followed by significant slides in the S&P 500. Historically, when the S&P 500 trades this high, it is usually followed by a 14% drawdown over the next year, the analysts wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman, Wall Organizations: Service
Michael Cuggino, the president and portfolio manager of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, says the current economic situation is a tale of two sides. The firm has two fixed-income funds, an aggressive growth equities fund, and a diversified fund known as the Permanent Portfolio that has been around since 1982. Last year, the permanent portfolio fund outperformed 93% of similar funds, according to Morningstar data. So far this year, it has been the growth stocks that are benefiting. The top four signals he's keeping an eye on are, first, a rapid increase in the unemployment rate, which would hit consumer spending and permeate other parts of the economy.
Persons: Michael Cuggino, Cuggino, It's, it's Charles Schwab Organizations: Federal, Morningstar, Companies, BHP Group, Exxon, Chevron, Nvidia, Broadcom, Apple Locations: Freeport, McMoRan, Australia
Amazon, Dropbox and Lyft had the biggest layoffs in the tech industry for April. Google and Meta Platforms are responsible for the most tech layoffs since the pandemic, according to Layoffs.fyi. Look at WARN notices in your stateSo-called WARN notices can help workers figure out if layoffs are coming, Vivian Tu, a former trader turned influencer who goes by "Your Rich BFF," said in a March Instagram video. However, sometimes companies can avoid releasing these notices by spreading out the layoffs, said Susan Houseman, director of research for the W.E. "So maybe you're going to lay off 75, say you lay off 40 one month and 26 the next to avoid WARN notice," she said.
Persons: Daniel Grill, , José Fernández, Lyft, Vivian Tu, influencer, BFF, Susan Houseman, Houseman Organizations: Challenger, Retailers, University of Louisville, Google, Worker, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research
Americans are expected to spend less this holiday season and seek out discounts, according to a new CNBC survey of retail logistics managers. For example, Home Depot (HD) expects overall sales and same-store sales to each decline between 2% and 5% in fiscal year 2023. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD performance In a separate research note, JPMorgan said TJX is best positioned to capture consumer trade-down demand. "We have the two best retailers for the moment," Jim Cramer said during the Investing Club's June Monthly Meeting Wednesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Mary Dillon, Cowen, Richard Galanti, TJX, that's, Jim Cramer, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim, TJ Maxx, Prince George's, Chip Somodevilla Organizations: CNBC, Costco, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, Fed, Wednesday, Management, JPMorgan, Shoppers, TJ, Getty Locations: Maxx, April's, Prince, Hyattsville , Maryland
Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner says housing activity has bottomed. After a huge drop off in activity, demand is starting to stabilize. Yardeni ResearchThe pickup in activity has likely been due to housing affordability stabilizing. Zentner's view that the housing market is stabilizing is a big contributing factor to her call for a soft-landing scenario, where the US economy avoids a recession. But nevertheless, housing activity has bottomed, and that's probably the most important pillar to a soft-landing."
Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Zentner, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Woloshin, Suisse's Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, undershoots, David Rosenberg Organizations: National Association of, National Association of Homebuilders, UBS Wealth Management, Rosenberg Locations: Zentner
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And if inflation does indeed fall further, Powell suggested the Fed might deviate from its projections and keep rates steady. July's Federal Open Market Committee "will be a live meeting," because "a decision hasn't been made," Powell said. But even if the Fed doesn't hike in July, it's likely to hold rates steady for the rest of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Gundlach, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel's, Powell, hasn't, there's, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Getty, CNBC Locations: Washington ,
The S & P ended at 4,372, exactly where it was at 2 PM when the Fed made its announcement. In English: I am not saying a soft landing is happening, but we could make it. The stock market certainly believes in the soft landing. The S & P is up nearly 5% this month alone on a belief the job market will remain strong and the Fed is done. But the S & P is up over 500 points (more than 13%) since bottoming at 3,855 on March 13th.
Persons: Jeff Gundlach, doesn't, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jeffrey Yale Rubin, FOMO Organizations: Fed, Powell, Bulls, Birinyi Associates, American, of, Bears
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into a recession if the central bank follows through on its rate-hiking path this year. "I think that if the Fed follows the path that they're talking about, ... they are going to break something," Gundlach said on CNBC's " Closing Bell." The Fed paused its hiking campaign in June, but forecast it will raise interest rates as high as 5.6% before 2023 is over. The so-called dot-plot released Wednesday projected two more increases left in 2023, if the central bank keeps its rate-hiking pace at quarter-point increments. Gundlach said he doesn't think the Fed is going to be raising interest rates again as data are expected to deteriorate.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Jay Powell, we're, Jerome Powell, Powell, hasn't Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal, Fed
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe odds of a recession are less than 50/50, says Ariel Investment's Charlie BobrinskoyCharlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chairman and head of investment group, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss a potential rebound in cyclical stocks, equities climbing following CPI data, and recessionary concerns impacting commodity demand.
Persons: Ariel Investment's Charlie Bobrinskoy Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel
Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, , Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States
Lauren Goodwin says investors should keep in mind that AI's eventual impact remains unknown. She said to invest thematically, focus on quality, and look at adjacent industries AI will rely on. Stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft — leaders in the AI space — have alone contributed to about 43% of the index's gains. "The excitement about generative AI has distracted investors from the possible risks of a looming recession," Goodwin said in a note on Tuesday. "The direct winners from AI technology may not be known yet.
Persons: Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goodwin Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, New York Life Investments, Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Intelligence, iShares Robotics, Companies, X Data, Digital Infrastructure ETF, Computing Fund
Investors are hoping that next week's Federal Reserve meeting offers more clarity about the path interest rates could take. Rising interest rates squeeze consumers, while a cut to follow should help boost economic activity. These pricey purchases are often financed, and higher rates mean higher costs. "Even if the sticker price of the thing doesn't change, the interest rate still matters a lot for their monthly budget." The "brakes were hit very hard in 2022," largely due to higher rates on the new-home construction side, he said.
Persons: Christopher Herrington, Herrington, Kurt Yinger, It's, James Hardie, Yinger, There's, Rafe Jadrosich, Jadrosich, Seth Sigman, Bank of America's Curtis Nagle, Nagle, Loop's Anthony Chukumba, Garik Shmois, Shmois, Leslie's, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, SunRun, Corinne Blanchard, Citi's Pierre Lau, SolarEdge, Lau, John Bailer, Michael Bloom Organizations: Virginia Commonwealth University, Davidson, Companies, Bank of America, Fortune Brands, UFP Industries, Barclays, Bank of America's, Williams, Pool Corp, of America, FTC, Deutsche Bank, Shoals Technologies, Caterpillar, Cummins, Newton Investment Management Locations: Louisiana, Wall, Sonoma, California
Spending in the eurozone fell 0.3 percent in the first three months of this year after falling 1 percent in the previous quarter. Across Europe, countries swiftly stockpiled energy reserves, and a mild winter, together with mass conservation efforts, helped avoid the worst. The strategy has helped drive down the price of energy, and ​inflation in the eurozone’s biggest economies climbed down from record highs. In May, the annual rate of inflation was 6.1 percent, the eurozone’s lowest level in more than a year. The International Monetary Fund has warned that European policymakers’ main challenge this year would be to tame inflation without stoking a severe recession.
Persons: ” Claus Vistesen, , Organizations: , Pantheon, European Central Bank, Monetary Fund, , Analysts, ING Bank, Bank’s Locations: Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, France, Ukraine, Europe
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